I will now continue just to see if there is a semblance of profit rom these market movers over time, while continuing with the place only horses in the mean time
120 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 General Tufto, Jordi Roper, Louisiade, 5/1 Fun In The Sun, King Of The Beers, 12/1 Government, 14/1 Rub Of The Relic, 25/1 Lancaster Lad, Tiger´s Rocket, 33/1 Daggerman.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only a handful of these are likely contenders in current form and the pick of those could be JORDI ROPER, who's competitive off this mark, handles the surface well and will appreciate a step back up in trip. General Tufto and Louisiade complete the shortlist. |
Rub of the relic now 7/1 with Daggerman a non runner (who will not affect the revised market ). This is a poor apprentice ridden handicap so we must take this potential move in context. That said, fav at 3/1 hints at an open race
140 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Seefin Mountain, 7/2 Intensifier, Prince Sabaah, 9/1 Bella Haze, 10/1 Harry Feversham, 12/1 Finnish Melody, Zafranagar, 20/1 Heroes, 25/1 Maidstone Mercury, 50/1 Nahanni King, 100/1 Ana Buachaill Dana, Bold Phoenix, Lunces Lad, Smiths Tempest, Tigger, 200/1 Native Cherry.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The going is an unknown factor, but SEEFIN MOUNTAIN is likely to play a big part judged on his Taunton second - and there is the likelihood of more to come. Bella Haze is expected to leave her hurdling debut running well behind and could be the one to beat |
Bella Haze now 4/1
Heavy ground at Chepstow means NO BETS for the place only system. After a few days ago, this must be strictly adherred to by me anyway! As to market movers, well 1313 form from Bella Haze is ok I suppose, and the heavy ground may open the race up. Heroes is 14/1 in one booky mention but 20/1 in others. I thought I'd mention incase this one came in - I'd be cursing.
150 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs United Nations, 5/2 Clear Sailing, 7/1 All In The Red, Don Pietro, 20/1 Redwater River, 25/1 Ming Vase, 33/1 Countrywide Comet, 50/1 Mount Usher.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNITED NATIONS was in cracking form when last seen round here and he can bounce back to winning ways at the expense of Clear Sailing. |
First 2 are odds on and 7/4. 4th fav a non runner brings 8 runners down to 7 and hopefully still 3 the place. Concern that United Nations has done his winning, but at odds on is priced to be competitive again. PRoven all weather form is a bonus. Clear Sailing now 7/4 is fancied.
These races can be tricky unless we can convince ourselves that United and Clear will be fighting it out for the 3 places. There are no market movers.
NOTE - this is a seller
155 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Power Of Attorney, 5/1 Madman, 6/1 Herkel, 7/1 Keats Dream, 8/1 Grange Alainn, 10/1 Tawaagg, 12/1 Castaneous, 14/1 Cloverhill Lad, Fairhaven, Stretch The Truth, 20/1 Cappry Star, Kellys Charm, Sweet Peak, 25/1 Glenogra Cailin, Riscal, 33/1 Alderfield, Light Mist, Risky Life,
Tawaag now 5/2! Soft /Heavy at Thurles and a maiden hurdle
210 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Jaunty Flight, 5/2 Jigsaw Dancer, 7/2 Or Bleu, Super Formen, 20/1 Raysrock, 100/1 Windinthewillows.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop back to 2m is not really ideal for Jaunty Flight, who is the highest-rated of these over hurdles but was made to work hard in a mares event on her chasing debut last month and whose Cheltenham entry is the RSA Chase over 3m. Preference is for JIGSAW DANCER, the only Arkle entry in the field, who is a bit unfortunate not to be defending an unbeaten record over fences and is fully effective at this trip on testing ground. |
Super Formen is now fav at 7/4
6 runner race - heavy ground again - only 2 the place
220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Nordic Light, 7/2 Spanish Ace, 4/1 Desert Light, 6/1 Martingrange Lass, 10/1 One Way Ticket, 14/1 Flying Indian, Itshim, 25/1 Heavenly Encounter.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The draw could prove decisive in this tricky heat in which NORDIC LIGHT can take the shortest route home. He ran well in a handicap on Monday and can confirm recent form with stable companion Spanish Ace and course winner Desert Light.[SM] |
Itshim 5/1 BUT why is Spanish Ace out to 10/1? Nordic light is a price gapper in the live market
15/8 - - - 4/1
This is a class 7 classified stakes race and is not ideal for me but there are 8 runners so its 3 the place
225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Lady Longcroft, 7/1 Galley Slave, My Mate Granite, 12/1 Bering De Lauriere.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very weak maiden that provides an excellent opportunity for LADY LONGCROFT to get off the mark and continue the fine run of form of her yard |
Now 1/4 3 second places and an obvious contender
245 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 The Gossmoor Yank, 2/1 Soft Spoken Guy, 4/1 Little Josh, 16/1 Long Hop, 33/1 Makin A Fuss, 66/1 Manolo.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Josh and Soft Spoken Guy hold entries at the Cheltenham Festival but, with the former representing a stable which has been under a cloud and the latter tackling hurdles for the first time, it seems advisable to side with C&D winner THE GOSSMOOR YANK. |
Very interesting race were it not for the heavy ground. 3 under 16/1 in a 6 runner race - 2 the place
300 SOUTHWELL
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAWDON was impressive on his first run for Gay Kelleway last week and, with the help of his capable jockey's claim, can reverse recent course form with danger Nawamees |
5 runners down to 3 now with Rawdon and Nawamees and Ten Spot.
Looks an outstanding opportunity for one of the front 2 to place BUT will Ten Spot be a spoiler? Originally 25/1 in the betting forecast and a clear outsider. I have backed both Rawdon and Nawamees before to place. The concern is I'll pick the one which is beaten out of a place by Ten Spot!
BUT outstanding probability race here
320 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Presenting Copper, 9/2 Something Wells, 11/2 Osako D´Airy, 15/2 Money Order, 8/1 Gold Heart, 12/1 Mister Potter, 16/1 Moncadou, 25/1 Mister Quasimodo, 33/1 Bring Me Sunshine, Master Somerville.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A competitive looking race but a good opportunity for the progressive PRESENTING COPPER (nap) to underline her liking for the course, possibly at the main expense of Something Wells |
Master Somerville now 12/1
330 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blue Tomato, 15/8 Epic Odyssey, 9/2 Secret Dubai, 8/1 Brandywell Boy, 16/1 Elusive Ronnie, 20/1 Flamestone.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLUE TOMATO ran with more encouragement at Southwell last time and if he can build on that back up to 6f, he can prove too strong for Epic Odyssey and Brandywell Boy. |
3rd fav a non runner - does this leave the front 2 clear in this claimer?
335 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Back In The Red, 4/1 This Ones For Eddy, 5/1 Figaro Flyer, 8/1 Cheshire Rose, Desperate Dan, 10/1 Efistorm, Replicator, Spic ´n Span, 14/1 Fast Freddie, 16/1 Mandelieu.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BACK IN THE RED has been in cracking form on AW this winter and returns to the handicap ranks on a feasible mark over this proven C&D. Figaro Flyer can stay on into a place. |
Cheshire Rose 9/2 in places
350 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Yamal, 7/1 Fares, Naples, 10/1 Aamaaq, Jet Express, Jonquil, 12/1 Little White Lie, 14/1 Firestreak, Military Power, 20/1 Escape Route, Plavius, 25/1 Sgt Schultz, Tawaash, 66/1 Ketter.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yamal is one to keep an eye on for this first dirt run after an encouraging UAE debut and first start for bang in-form connections. However he'll be short for one that has yet to run on dirt and if he misses the kick as he did for Mark Johnston last year, he could be in trouble from this draw. Naples is better than he was able to show on his dirt debut last week but this could go to MIILITARY POWER, who has shown ability for Mubarak Bin Shafya on both turf and dirt in the UAE and this is a more realistic assignment than the one he tackled in Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge last week.[RY] |
Military power now 10/1 but is this because he has actually been mentioned in Spotlight
355 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 The Sawyer, 11/4 Pretty Star, 3/1 Notabotheronme, 7/1 Malko De Beaumont, 10/1 Stolen Moments, 12/1 Leading Authority, 33/1 Victory Gunner.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is a sound case to be made for The Sawyer and Pretty Star, but the relatively unexposed NOTABOTHERONEME goes particularly well here and may be best excused his latest reverse. |
Victory gunner 12/1 and LEading Authority 7/1. Only a 7 runner race though but is over heavy
410 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Flores Sea, Mrs Bun, 9/2 Obe Royal, 13/2 Norcroft, 10/1 Run Free, 14/1 Haroldini, 20/1 Tyzack, 25/1 Bright Falcon.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mrs Bun has to be high on the list, but one that appeals even more is FLORES SEA (nap) who ran really well off this mark here last week |
Flores 11/10
Haroldini 10/1 and Tyzack 14/1 but interesting that Flores Sea has hardened at the head of the market in this 8 runner race
440 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Highly Regal, 4/1 Inside Story, 9/2 Salt Of The Earth, 6/1 Fine Ruler, 7/1 Lopinot, 8/1 Sir Ike, 10/1 Snowy Indian, 12/1 Alexander Guru, 33/1 Annes Rocket.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some disappointing types on show here and INSIDE STORY (nap), who has been running well over inadequate trips this winter, can build on his latest Southwell second. Fine Ruler and Salt Of The Earth could prove best of the rest.[ |
Alexander Guru 8/1
445 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kingaroo, 9/2 Alimarr, Dispol Diva, 5/1 Just Five, 8/1 Le Petit Vigier, Tiffany Lady, 20/1 Where You Will, 25/1 Ringo Zaar, The Canny Dove.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGAROO acts well on this surface and boasts the form credentials to finish on top at this level for a jockey that gets on well with him. |
The Canny Dove 14/1
455 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 City Style, 3/1 Jose Adan, 5/1 India Tiberina, 14/1 Jargelle, 20/1 Balcarce Nov, Indiscutible, 33/1 Versaki, 50/1 Montmorency, Tishtar, 66/1 Destiny Quest, Dr Smart, 250/1 City Queen,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many of these can be fancied and this looks between Saeed Bin Suroor's pair CITY STYLE and Jose Adan. Both are progressive sorts who make their UAE debuts and first starts for their in-form yard but, with the latter yet to tackle turf, the one to be on is Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf fourth City Style, who shouldn't be inconvenienced by the step back in trip and who should relish these conditions |
2 horse race?
515 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Safebreaker, 9/2 Jessica Wigmo, 8/1 Copperwood, Dancing Duo, Prince Rossi, 10/1 Kinsman, Nautical, 16/1 Baba Ghanoush, 20/1 Cyfrwys, Princess Teddy, 33/1 Almora Guru, Alto Singer, 50/1 Black Draft,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Safebreaker has plenty to recommend him here but stall 1 isn't ideal and he could be worth taking on with JESSICA WIGMO, who was back to form over 6f here last time and doesn't look badly treated under her penalty.[PSm] |
You'll remember Safebreaker who I place backed last time out. Element of a price gap here - 15/8 in the betting forecast and a poor draw - over a mile what impact will this have?
530 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 J J The Jet Plane, 5/2 Star Crowned, 10/1 Force Freeze, 20/1 Narc, Terrific Challenge, 33/1 Change Alley, Sea Hunter, Strike Up The Band, 66/1 Malayeen, New Freedom, Taqseem.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Star Crowned is an admirably tough sort who relishes dirt and is sure to go well but he falls short of top class, something that doesn't apply to J J THE JET PLANE, who is unbeaten over sprint distances and is held in the highest esteem by Mike de Kock. True, first time out on a different surface on his UAE debut when conceding weight all round may be the best time to get him beaten, but he has created such a good impression in South Africa that it'll be a surprise if he doesn't take care of this field. At bigger odds Force Freeze makes each-way appeal judged on the promise of his UAE debut |
2 horse race? NOTE the comments of Spotlight regarding JJ the Jet Plane
ONE A DAY
The market movers are just there for me to monitor.
As to the one a day place only selections, well it's a difficult day with a lot of top heavy markets.
150 STHL - United NAtions is 1.12 and Clear Sailing 1.14 to place - 3 to place but a seller. United NAtions "likely to be hard to beat" Lee Enstone has been on all of the last 4 rides so an element of consistency there
Why the poor run last time out when hot favourite?
225 STHL - LAdy Longcroft an obvious selection if the prices are reflective of true chances 1.1 to place in a 4 horse race -2 the place.I do not like middle distance races - 1 mile 4f here
300 STHL - Nawamees 1.17 to place and Rawdon 1.10 to place in a 3 horse race - 2 to place. Great from a probaiblity perspecitve. Nawamees at a higher price relative to other contenders today but how confident can we be that he will not be beaten into a place by Ten Spot
330 KEMPTON - Epic Odyssey and Blue Tomato the only 2 horses under 10/1 1.29 and 1.24
Again a top heavy market -will the front 2 be the front 2 at race end?
410 STHL - Flories Sea well backed into 11/10 in places. Head 2nd last time out was encouraging. This 8 runner race sees 3 at 20/1 or higher - can we discount them? Tom Eaves won on Mrs Bun 2 runs ago and is now on Flories Sea - significant?
1.28 to place is head and shoulders the best price of the day
455 NAD AL SHEEBA - City Style 1.33 to place in a market which hasnt got going yet. Spotlight makes a convincing argument and this has the look of a 2 horse race BUT have we chosen the right one here to place?
CONCLUSION
Nawamees at 1.17 looks a great choise today at the prices. He has ONE HORSE TO BEAT to place in the top 2. That one horse was originally a 25/1 outsider. Yes, anything can happen in horse racing but from a probability perspective this looks the best bet of the day for me.
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