140 HUNTINGDON - Spirit Son or Palace Jester? Geraghty or McCoy. 1 run in France or 2 runs as recently as November?
***** ONE A DAY 7pm - Zwolle v Emmen - back Zwolle at 1.29 in the match odds*****
This carries a risk today as Emmen are unbeaten in 6 and I would suggest perhaps trading if Zwolle lead at any stage. The match is in running.
First Rock placed and I am glad I left Fenerbahce alone as they lost 2-1. That's betting blind for you!
Real Madrid continue to be a force and it is time I trusted them I think. After all it is a new Real under the Special One.
415pm - Bahrain v India - 1.19 home - I would not be as confident as I was with Australia. Bahrain have only won 3 of their last 12 and they are 1.19 - tells you that India must be really Sunday League. I cannot trust Bahrain here. Beaten 3-1 by UAE who beat India 5-0. Much of a muchness.
5pm - Egypt v Kenya - 1.19 home - dispatched of Burundi with ease recently.Egypt have won 4 of their last 5 so are in good enough form , although it must be added those were friendlies and today's match is a friendly.
Kenya have only won 1 in their last 12. Of slight concern are recent scorelines - 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 (Kenya win), 1-0.
An ability to frustrate perhaps? Ties in with 2009 scoreline of 1-0 to Egypt in head to heads.
7pm - Zwolle v Emmen - 1.29 home - top v 10th and this league is usually characterised by goals.
Zwolle have won all bar one draw at home, 3 times at home scoring 4, twice scoring 3 and twice scoring 2. The draw was a 0-0.
The 2 2010 meetings were both 3-0 to Zwolle away at Emmen.
9 match winning run for Zwolle.
4,6,4,3,5,4,5,2,2 the goals scored in total in those matches. Augurs well for over 2.5 goals.
Emmen are undefeated in 6, 3 wins and 3 draws, and away from home , form is LDWDLLDWD - perfect sequence - should complete with an L?
3-1 away win on 22nd November 2010 was against 2nd in the league, so perhaps a neutral goals bet if this is a sign of a better Emmen in 2010?
140 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Spirit Son, 5/2 Palace Jester, 8/1 Sivola De Sivola, 14/1 Bumblebee, 20/1 Airdrie, 25/1 Deputy Dog, 33/1 Behindcloseddoors, 40/1 Original Prankster, 50/1 Blantyre, 50/1 Malenfant, 50/1 Tiger Bay, 100/1 Graylyn Amber, 100/1 Upper Deck.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few make any appeal, as the previous winners SPIRIT SON and Palace Jester look very promising. Preference is for Nicky Henderson's charge on his first run since coming from France. Sivola De Sivola makes easily most appeal among the rest.[Richard Austen]
Very interesting betting market sees only 2 under 12/1 and 3 under 33/1 . Can we trust Spirit Son to give the running of his win in France. Barry Geraghty can certainly be trusted.
210 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Mr Gardner, 7/2 Patsy Finnegan, 4/1 Platin Grounds, 66/1 Bemused.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MR GARDNER's 32l win from Fistral Beach in a maiden hurdle at Newbury looks the best form but Platin Grounds, Patsy Finnegan and Iroquois Warrior all showed plenty of ability in that sphere and, like the selection, return from long layoffs after injury.[Richard Austen]
Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.
300 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 No Complaining, 7/2 Empress Leizu, 6/1 Starry Mount, 8/1 Sweet Possession, 12/1 Inquisitress, 14/1 Tous Les Deux, 16/1 Pascalina, 20/1 Haulit, 50/1 Dalrymple.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NO COMPLAINING (nap) stands out on recent form and should take the beating. Starry Mount makes some appeal under Spencer, while Empress Leizu looks best of the rest. [Mark Brown]
Fanning rides for Curley! Interesting. Normally it would be Tom Queally if it was a nailed on gamble. But this looks simply like a horse in form. And a price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap. Barney can get up to all sorts of mischief so care needed. Could be a lay waiting to happen!!
250 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Lennon, 4/1 Pokfulham, 8/1 Danehillsundance, 14/1 Lakil House, 20/1 The Joker, 20/1 Wee Sonny, 25/1 Mr Lu, 33/1 Autumn Harvest, 33/1 Mississippian, 100/1 King´s Chorister.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very hard to see beyond LENNON, who will win this with something to spare if showing even a fair proportion of his best 2010 chasing form. He won well on his last hurdles start, albeit approaching three years ago. Pokfulham is readily preferred of the others. [Mel Cullinan]
A selling hurdle so we know what we're getting and a fav with a 281 day absence. 3 horses under 10/1, 4 under 20/1
710 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 French Hollow, 4/1 Bute Street, 5/1 Taste The Wine, 10/1 Mystified, 12/1 Am I Blue, 14/1 Abulharith, 14/1 Dot´s Delight, 16/1 Baltimore Patriot, 40/1 Sea Tobougie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRENCH HOLLOW (nap) dotted up here on his reappearance last Friday and, provided he's in the same sort of form turned out relatively quickly, looks capable of defying a penalty. Bute Street is also on the shortlist.[Steven Boow]
A price gapper here is a class 6 0-65 handicap but not normally as spectacular a price gap as I am used to seeing . This should be a 5 horse race at least if we can discount the bigger prices and allows some probability - 5 horses and 3 places .
SHORTLIST
5pm - Egypt v Kenya - 1.19 home -given Kenya's recent record of tight losses , under 4.5 goals appeals here at 1.35 ( although I acknowledge that I don't know the strength of Kenya's opposition when compared with Egypt. I would trade this market hoping Kenya continue to be tough to break down ( and probably eventually capitulate)Asian handicap markets expect goals.
7pm - Zwolle v Emmen - 1.29 home - I think our Dutch compatriots have had a winter break. As seen in La Liga there was some ring rustiness directly after a break.
Emmen are in good form of late and won away 3-1. This league is reknowned for goals and I would err on the side of caution here and choose a neutral bet - over 1.5 goals at 1.15 appeals ( in an illiquid market) and over 2.5 goals at 1.44 is tempting ( but with trading in mind I think)
140 HUNTINGDON - the market tells us this should be a 3 horse race with the obvious value to be had in each way Sivola de Sivola as the 3rd of the triumvirate under 33/1 . At 10/1 he looks the best choice to exploit any under par performances from the market leaders.
Spirit Son and Palace Jester cannot be split at the head of the market and both are at 1.15 to place.Sivola de Sivola is 2.14 to place.
These races rarely finish 1-2-3 as per the betting though.
Spirit Son last ran Sept 2010 in France and won. Geraghty on board today.
Palace Jester has a McCoy onboard who has been very consistent recently -he last ran November 2010 .
Both horses have run on the ground.
210 HUNTINGDON - another probability race - should be 3 horses and 2 places barring accidents.Mr Gardner gets the vote of the market at 1.17 with Patsy Finnegan 1.51 next best.
300 LINGFIELD - Only 4 under 22/1 and No Complaining represents mischievous Barney Curley and, raised in trip in such a lowly grade race, would be rife for a nice lay at odds on. But that is just the cynical me. After all, Joe Fanning is booked and he is a solid performer. 1.18 to place and if I was a professional gambler, I would be laying the place market as that is the value call for a punt here if I was engineering a gamble!!
250 MUSSELBURGH - oh the conundrums - -Lennon has a 281 day absence but is clearly the best horse in the race. 1.17 to place ( this seems to be the standard price today) . Pokfulham looks the value here in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 A selling hurdle though!!
710 WOLVES - we would need to look nearer 710 than some 7 hours previous to get an accurate look at this.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Niggly is the word to describe today's opportunities.
5pm - Egypt v Kenya - 1.19 home - under 4.5 goals at 1.35 looks to be a goer here with Kenya's recent record. But here's the niggle. What were Kenya's recent opponents like in comparison to Egypt? For instance, Egypt beat Tanzania 5-1 but Kenya only drew 1-1 with Tanzania.7pm - Zwolle v Emmen - 1.29 home - this should go with the home form but was Emmen's away win against 2nd in the league ( 3-1) an anomolous result or the sign of something more to come.
1.43 over 2.5 goals is interesting as a trader only. The last time I put Zwolle up as a one a day bet they drew! But all things considered, they have beaten sides higher than Emmen in the league recently - 3,3,4,4,4,2 he goals scored by them at home . Coming back from a Xmas break - will they continue in this vein. After all they have beaten Emmen 3-0 twice away from home in 2010.
140 HUNTINGDON - Will Spirit Son and Palace Jester dominate and both finish placed? They cannot really be split. Hard to choose between Geraghty and McCoy, but the latter has the consistent form of late and can be trusted at present.
210 HUNTINGDON - pure probability race - you need to decide whether you go with the market or look for a better price.
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