Ipswich are in a mess and Arsenal should take advantage making 1.37 very tempting - Arsenal team news for me is required though to gauge the value in this 1.37. Ipswich wounded animal following mauling by Chelsea may translate into ultra defensive mode?
Barca -again team news required for me. Goals bet rather than win only as head to heads point at relatively tight recent games.
At Lingfield Bull Five has George baker riding, and is one of only 2 under 25/1 currently. Looks the value against the hot pot here. But 13 lengths 4th at Southwell ( yes may have found the surface a concern)
Local Hero to win here could be the call today against a Franklino who has not been firing of late. Should be a 2 horse race for that winning place and a clear round assumed.
*****ONE A DAY - 140 DONCASTER - LOCAL HERO TO WIN ONLY**** I see Franklino as a hit and miss character. McCoy won on Local Hero last time ( on soft) - analysis of that race
"An ordinary gallop for this juvenile hurdle and it produced a very taking winner with LOCAL HERO proving a class apart.
Rated 84 on the Flat, he has the size and scope to go far in this sphere. He jumped well throughout and it will be interesting to see where connections decide to sent him next time out."
Looks a solid jumper and the hope it there are no mistakes today.
A risky bet with jumps as he has to win ( we do not have the comfort of 2nd place but Franklino looks inconsistent)
The withdrawal of monster gamble Stoneacre Gareth did nothing for the price of Powerful Presence but the probability of his winning/placing was increased.
4pm - Anorthosis v APEP - 1.14 home - 5 wins on the trot in head to heads - asian handicaps are +2 to +3 so goals expected ( despite some greek goalless influence)DDDLLLDLLW - no not the form for APEP but the form for 1.14 shots Anorthosis. Hardly compelling form for a 1.14 shot. APEP must be a Sunday League outfit. This is a Cup match and APEP are a Division 2 team who have LLWLLD in last 6. Trust the market here for an out of form top flight team
645pm - Benfica v Olhanense - 1.23 home - both top flight teams for this League Cup match. 11 wins and 1 loss at home for Benfica - solid form.Olhanense have only won 1 away from home in last 12, 5 draws and 6 losses.
730pm - Carmarthen Town v The New Saints - 1.39 away - 9 wins 2 draws for the New Saints - -last head to head 7- win - 11 of last 12 Carmarthen matches were over 2.5 goals , 2,2,2,1,5,1,3,3,3 the goals conceded by Carmarthen in last 9 matches.
2,2,4,2 the goals scored by The New Saints in last 4 matches. Goals anyone?
745pm - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.33 away - likely to be a tight away match in the Cup
745pm - Ipswich v Arsenal - 1.37 away - Ipswich were tonked 7-0 by Chelsea in the FA Cup, and this League Cup match could be another loss against Arsenal, but beware the wounded animal! Will be more cautious next time.
Faith in the disarray of Ipswich could make this 1.37 very appealing indeed. Team news for the Arse would be ideal. No draws at home in last 11 matches for Ipswich.They either win or lose.
Arsenal's last 3 losses - Man Utd 1-0 , Sporting Braga, and Spurs ( when they were 2-0 up)
WDWDD last 4 matches for Arsenal.
8pm - Blackpool v Liverpool - 100% of home matches over 2.5 goals for Blackpool.Blackpool have conceded 1,1,2,2,2,2,3 at home as well as scoring in each of those. Great pattern for over 2.5 goals.
Liverpool come to town.1-2 away win for Blackpool at Anfield.
Liverpool's last 3 have been over 2.5 goals away.
845pm - Porto v Pinhalnovense - 1.08 home should equal goals 1 loss in 28 matches came recently at home in their league cup - top flight v D3s league team and 1.08 should signal a 3-0 win or thereabouts. Highly illiquid market alas but hoping some money will arrive throughout the day as Porto are a reliable unit ( if fielding the first team)
9pm - Barcelona v Betis - 1.15 home - this is the Spanish Cup ( as opposed to the Copa del Rey or one and the same?) and Barca are playing high flying Betis, who are leading their leagues.
No recent head to heads but last 3 head to heads 2007, 2008, 2008, 2009 were 3-0, 3-2 ( Betis win), 3-2 (Barca), 2-2.
3 of those matches were over 3.5 goals.
TEam news for Barca will be important. I suspect this 1.15 is a tad short initially.
1235 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Loose Preformer, 11/4 Muldoon´s Picnic, 4/1 Piroulet, 13/2 Natural Spring, 10/1 Cygnet, 12/1 Jack The Gent, 16/1 Ben Cee Pee M, 20/1 Dontupsettherhythm, 20/1 Moscow Chancer, 20/1 No Tears, 50/1 Master Conor, 66/1 Beau D´argent, 66/1 Jaques Vert, 100/1 Froggy Lane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Loose Preformer is much respected with encouraging reports emanating from Lambourn but MULDOON'S PICNIC sets a reasonable standard on the strength of his Newbury fourth in what is traditionally an informative event. Piroulet is the other outstanding candidate.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Only 5 under 33/1 should narrow our focus here.
140 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Local Hero, 5/2 Franklino, 10/1 Eltheeb, 33/1 Minortransgression, 40/1 Clear Alternative, 200/1 Aim´ees Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LOCAL HERO looks a horse going places and the hitherto disappointing Franklino is going to have to every bit as good as his trainer thought he might be to get near him.[Paul Johnson]
Now 1/3 and one of 2 under 20/1 here, with a clear round this looks a 2 horse race with Franklino the value alternative? McCoy has been doing well on hotpots the last few days.
615 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Talenti, 6/4 Camps Bay, 6/1 Muzo, 14/1 Home, 25/1 Crazy Colours.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field and likely this will be a tactical affair but TALENTI, who will be suited by the return to this track, and Camps Bay should still dominate the finish.[Adrian Cook]
All weather probability bets have, thus far, being going as the market predicts. Here is another which should be a 3 horse race for 2 places with 2 clear outsiders. - Will Talenti and Camps Bay dominate?
1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fifth In Line, 5/2 Honkers Bonkers, 5/1 Sapphire Girl, 8/1 Bluberry, 10/1 Ajaafa, 12/1 Broughtons Fawn, 33/1 Speed Gene, 66/1 Kitty Fisher, 66/1 Lady Titticaca.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fifth In Line should give her running once more but she has been expensive to follow and this could be the opportunity for HONKERS BONKERS to gain his first success. His penultimate third over C&D doesn't read too badly here and he has the cheekpieces back on this time.[Paul Smith]
Only 5 under 25/1 here and Fifth in line is the fav here for another probability race but a poor seller.
405 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Super Collider, 9/2 Bull Five, 20/1 Olimamu, 20/1 Perle D´amour, 66/1 Cullybackey.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUPER COLLIDER has been expensive to follow to this point but with Sweet Origin's debut second having been let down repeatedly, he really ought to be able to get off the mark in this field.[Paul Smith]
Fav now 1/3 and Bull five is another qualifier for a value alternative being the only other horse under 20/1
SHORTLIST
730pm - Carmarthen Town v The New Saints - 1.39 away - goals looks the call here but the football markets are suffering from lack of liquidity and not in running
745pm - Ipswich v Arsenal - 1.37 away - 1.2 over 1.5 goals includes both sides. Ipswich likely to be reactive to 7-0 loss v Chelsea in another cup match recently. Team news important for the Arse.
8pm - Blackpool v Liverpool - 1.32 over 1.5 goals looks a gift here if Blackpool's trend for scoring and conceding at home ( 100% record so far) continues. The 1.32 recounts the disarray Liverpool are in with Fernando Torres largely uninterested and Steven Gerrard out. Where will Liverpool get their goals?845pm - Porto v Pinhalnovense - 1.08 home - should equal goals - over 2.5 goals of interest if the market is a little more liquid.
9pm - Barcelona v Betis - 1.15 home - team news important - -when Mascerano plays, it tend to stifle Barca.
1.38 over 2.5 goals may be tradeable.
Straight back of Barca safer.
140 DONCASTER - should be dominated by 2 horses ( clear round assumed) 1.1 for Local Hero to place and 1.45 Franklino to place - value selection.
Franklino has been poor and looks unreliable - win only on Local Hero? 1.37 to win.
615 KEMPTON - 3 horses and 2 places - Muzo the fly in the ointment - default to the fav here to place?
405 LINGFIELD - Super Collider has a 200+ day absence to overcome and the only other horse under 25/1 in this field is Bull Five - surely he is the value alternative? 1.37 to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Ipswich v Arsenal - 1.37 away - 1.2 over 1.5 goals - team news required for Arsenal.
8pm - Blackpool v Liverpool - 1.32 over 1.5 goals given Blackpool's home concession and scoring in all home matches.
845pm - Porto v Pinhalnovense - 1.08 home - over 2.5 goals if the market becomes liquid.
9pm - Barcelona v Betis - 1.15 home - -no bet until team news.
140 DONCASTER - Local Hero to win only 1.37 worth a chance given Franklino looks inconsistent.
405 LINGFIELD - Bull Five to place here as the only other horse under 25/1 and 1.37 taking on a 200+ day hot pot .
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