back-lay-trade-horses-football: 20/1

Sporting are of interest albeit in the Cup, and with less than convincing home scorelines. They have clear head to head advantage over Penafiel and have scored 2 in each of their last 4 matches, winning 3 and losing one 3-2 when 2-0 up.
Look to be in good recent form.
Horse racing wise, Orpen Indeed is a good probability bet, Al Ferof is a mighty price gapper who must win with a clear round , albeit at 1.16 ( better to go each way speculating here?), and the 620 Wolves, while a poor grade weak race, should be between 2 horses in Kingscroft and the better priced Kristollini , the latter at 1.35 to place is a good value bet here.

In the final analysis, Kristollini might be worth risking, but is dropping suddenly to 6 furlongs for the first time in a very low grade. With Sporting having lost 3-2 while 2-0 up last time out, they will have something to prove, and I think that match will be beneficial for us this evening in ensuring a victory against lower league opponents.
In a tricky day, I think Sporting are the ones tonight with proven head to heads, and scoring at least 2 in last 4 matches, winning 3.

*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Sp Lisbon v Penafiel - back Sporting Lisbon at 1.21 at home***** I hope I don't rue the fact this is a cup match.

Inter were 2-0 up after 4 minutes. In cases like this, if you can, trade out! You saw, I hope, what happened after! Eventual winners though 3-2.
Barca -a great example of a team that had no motivation to win, and guess what? They did not win.

Slightly abridged message today as broadband was not working this morning.

5pm - Atromitos v Diagoras Rodou - 1.3 home - Division 1 v Division 2 and the away side are a typically Greek team, not a lot of goals and lots of tight matches. Only lost 1 in last 12 so this match is worth passing. As ever in Greece, if in running, I suspect we can trade 0-0.
8pm - AC Milan v Bari - 1.3 home - Italian Cup so a degree of caution. 2-0 and 3-2 in the head to heads in 2010, AC Milan were 2-0 up in the 3-2 match ( and did an Inter yesterday it would seem)
Only 2 wins in their last 12 for Bari, one a cup game and the other a 1-0 v struggling Lecce. I would suspect they are more interested in league survival.
Bari have won only once in the league.
This is league top v league bottom. AC milan have beaten 2 of the bottom 3 3-0 and 4-0 at home already.
It all depends on a strong AC Milan being selected as they should win if the form in an indicator.

815pm - Sp Lisbon v Penafiel - 1.21 home - Division 1 v Division 2 in the Portuguese League Cup. The big boys have won when similarly priced and Sp Lisbon are clear in head to heads.2-0, 3-1, 3-0 -most recent was 2009 so hopefully is still relevant.
Only lost 2 in last 12 in all competitions at home so solidity there. As this is the Cup, perhaps over 1.5 goals would be safer as a neutral bet?

130 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Credit Swap, 9/2 Bermuda Boy, 10/1 Shammick Boy, 10/1 Thunderstorm, 14/1 Time Book, 16/1 Yourgolftravel Com, 25/1 Ben Cee Pee M, 25/1 Senses, 33/1 Lady From Ige, 33/1 Monopole, 40/1 Jomade, 40/1 Mr Bachster, 66/1 Mac Beattie, 66/1 Red Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CREDIT SWAP did the job well enough at Leicester to suggest he should be able to shoulder the penalty successfully.[Jonathan Neesom]

This race features only 2 in the betting under 10/1. Of course, logic dictates that Bermuda Boy, the bigger priced of the 2, is the value bet? 1.13 Credit Swap to place and 1.4 Bermuda Boy to place.

Only 4 under 20/1 here so probability wise, with a clear round, Credit Swap should finish in the front 3

230 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Al Ferof, 16/1 Kim Tian Road, 16/1 Ronnie Ronalde, 16/1 Sir Ocus, 25/1 Big Knickers, 33/1 His Lordship, 33/1 Kadalkin, 40/1 Barton Cliche, 50/1 Tanners Emperor, 66/1 Dapple Prince, 100/1 Another Round, 100/1 Midnight Paradise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL FEROF appears to have the simplest of chances to open his account over hurdlesl.[Jonathan Neesom]

Now that is a price gap . 1/7 with next best at 16/1. The best payout from this race will be in determining 2nd place ( currently Big Knickers in the betting) as a 16/1 shot placing will pay far more than backing the winner. 1.16 to win and 1.06 to place. If getting involved here we would have to look to the win only. The prices for the other horses are huge.

Cheltenham bumper winner and 3rd in a grade 1 last time. Should be too good with that "clear round" of course. Grade 1 to class 4.

430 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Divine Folly, 5/2 Bathwick Brave, 6/1 Vincentian, 8/1 Another Dimension, 14/1 Ashbourne Folly, 14/1 Prince Of King, 20/1 How´s My Friend, 33/1 Dani, 33/1 Landscape Lad, 40/1 Lynford Nakita, 66/1 Crystal Cliche, 66/1 Jovial Starry Nite, 66/1 Little Ms Piggie, 66/1 Tenitemsplustoast.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he would be better served by a stiffer test, DIVINE FOLLY has been found a reasonable opening to get off the mark. Market confidence behind newcomer Bathwick Brave or Kempton flop Vincentian would be worth heeding.[Paul Johnson]

Only 3 under 14/1 for a bumper. Bathwick Brave, the newcomer, is favourite only slightly though. Divine Folly is next best . This is a maiden bumper - faith in the market here this early?

450 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Orpenindeed, 5/1 Apache Ridge, 8/1 Ingleby Star, 100/1 Stormburst.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should go to useful handicapper ORPENINDEED, who won a much stronger claimer over C&D when last seen. Apache Ridge can chase him home.[Ben Osborne]

3 horses for 2 places and a clear market leader , albeit in a seller. 1.11 to place and Apache ridge is 1.4 to place , the only other under evens.

550 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Munsef, 6/1 Carlton Scroop, 6/1 Kames Park, 25/1 Duar Mapel, 100/1 Puddington Bear.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't much between MUNSEF and Camps Bay on their running here earlier in the month but the former is the more talented of the pair and is always a threat in this company.[Paul Smith]

The beret wearer Frank Spencer returns on Munsef, as as long as the horse does not slip on an errant rollerskate, should place.Around 1.16 to place in an early illiquid market.

620 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kingscroft, 3/1 Kristollini, 16/1 Osgoodisgood, 16/1 Sally´s Swansong, 20/1 Lennoxwood, 33/1 Evey P, 66/1 Crystal Bridge, 66/1 Depden.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGSCROFT is one of the stable's lesser lights but he has a small race in him and he is unlikely to be found many weaker races than this. Kristollini could be the one to chase him home.[Paul Smith]

Wolves is the place for price gappers 1.1 to place with Kristollini 1.35 to place the only other under 14/1. Try him?

MEYDAN

235

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sahara Kingdom, 11/2 Solid Choice, 8/1 Tybalt, 10/1 Aamaaq, 10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Swinging Sixties, 10/1 Warsaw, 14/1 City Style, 14/1 Indomito, 14/1 Nocturnal Affair, 14/1 Prince Shaun, 20/1 Il Grande Maurizio, 33/1 Navajo Chief.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several exposed sorts but that's not the case with SAHARA KINGDOM, who created a good impression when winning both starts on Polytrack in the UK in 2009 and showed he was at least as good on his Fibresand debut when second to a progressive sort on his reappearance last year. His last run on his turf debut in heavy ground can easily be overlooked and he appeals as an ideal Carnival type for a yard that was in double form here last week. The main danger could be Solid Choice, who also hails from a yard that hit the ground running here last week.[Richard Young]

5/4 - - - - 7/1 for Frankie's mount is quite a contrast with the betting forecast.

545

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 River Jetez, 5/2 Aspectoflove, 5/2 Deem, 10/1 Ayun Tara, 14/1 Thai Haku, 20/1 Forest Crown, 33/1 Anam Chara, 33/1 Kinky Afro, 66/1 Emper Holly, 66/1 My Sweet Baby, 66/1 Summer Games.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should concern just the three at the head of the market and, with there being little to choose between 2009 Cape Verdi winner Deem and Aspectoflove, who were separated by only a short head in last year's Balanchine over 1m1f, this could go to highly regarded South African Grade 1 winner RIVER JETEZ (nap), who is versatile trip-wise, has no penalty to carry, who has reportedly been going very well at home and will find this much easier than when sixth in last year's Durban July on her final start for Mike Bass.[Richard Young]

A 3 horse race it looks like. Will these 3 dominate? If not, which may falter and not place?

TENNIS -AUSSIE OPEN

Midnight sees Caroline Wozniaki play Cibulkova and 1.24 for Woz is a very good price for the World Number 1. She looks rock solid, and the price will collapse if she wins the first set.

SHORTLIST

8pm - AC Milan v Bari - 1.3 home - top v bottom in the league and if form is a factor, this should go with the home side - cup match so ideally need to see a strong AC Milan-back to the league on 23rd Jan against strugglers Cesena at home. Enough of a gap to play first team tonight?