back-lay-trade-horses-football: 24/1

It is a day for having faith in the betting market. A maiden hurdler whose only run is in France and suddenly Tigre Daron is all the rage, but that form is not transferable and a maiden hurdle with some newcomers may see potential dark horses. Alfie Sherrin is worth the risk in a 4 horse race for 2 places but a 75 day absence on only 2nd chase fence start puts me off.
French Hollow is another huge price gapper, but is up again in the weights, and last 2 wins were on standard to slow all weather ground ( was this a factor)
The football is less than clear. I would consider goals in the Juliper League but the matches of interest are not in running. I would lay Telstar against Go ahead eagles if the match was in running, as I can see Go ahead taking the lead at some stage for a good trade.

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY***** Too many niggles.

1.3 at the off for PSV and a nice 3-0 away win

330pm - Persepolis v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.39 away - this is an international friendly so is best left alone.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere - the amazing record of 100% over 2.5 goals this season was retained by Fortuna Sittard last match, despite being 0-0 at halftime, they managed to concede 3 goals in the 2nd half. Will this standout stat continue? The Juliper league should be renamed the Goaliper League. An average throughout of 3.3 goals per match.
4-1, 0-0, 2-2 in head to heads when Almere were known as Omniworld.
Is this basically the same team?
This is 17th v 18th. Both concede plenty against other opponents. But they look to be the same level. Will that result in a tight match?
In 7 of 8 home matches, Fortuna have scored, and when playing bottom basement ( well Telstar who are 3rd from bottom ( remember Almere and Fortuna are bottom 2). the score was 2-4 in Telstar's favour.
Fortuna and Almere have yet to meet this season. Fortuna have only conceded less than 2 goals in one match at home this season. A goals bet is reliant on Fortuna scoring and conceding.
7/9 away matches for Almere have been over 2.5 goals. 1.51 over 2.5 goals but this match is not in running.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar - 1.59 home - in a league reknowned for goals, it might be worth checking out this match. - against the bottom 7 at home, Go ahead have won 3-0, 3-0, and 8-0 ( TElstar are 3rd from bottom)
LDDDL in last 5 for Go ahead is poor form but they are playing a poor side today. Chance of redress?
Only one win away for Telstar came at bottom side Fortuna. Laying Telstar here might be the best course of action.
8pm - Bolton v Chelsea - only one loss at home for Bolton was 1-0 v Liverpool.
Last 2 head to heads in 2010 were Chelsea wins by 1-0.
WWDWWD last 6 for Bolton at home. They have to perform at home because look at their recent away form LLLLL, 3 of those being 1-0! How gauling for Own Coyle.
Bolton have only played Man Utd of the new top 4 at home and that was a 2-2 draw. A pity we cannot gauge from other top 4 sides at home. Suffice to say they have lost away Arsenal, Chelsea and City ( 2 1-0 results there)
Bolton at home have beaten 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th.
2 wins in last 10 for Chelsea have both been at home ( one was 1-0 v Bolton)
LDWLLDDLL away for Chelsea in their last 9 matches is not League winning away form. 1 win in 10 away and Bolton is the last team Chelsea want to play away.
0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0 -the goals scored by Chelsea away in last 8 matches. We see where the problem lies.
1.15 for under 4.5 goals has a good chance of coming in bearing in mind this poor goalscoring record away from home.Only 36% of Chelsea's away matches have been over 2.5 goals , but 64% of Bolton's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Still we have 2 goals above 2.5 goals until 4.5 is breached.
2-2 v Man Utd, 4-1 away to Arsenal, 4-2 and 5-1 v Spurs and Newcastle might put this at jeopardy.

1255 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tigre D´aron, 11/2 High Rolling, 11/2 White Diamond, 13/2 High Ransom, 13/2 Royal Holiday, 14/1 Lil Ella, 20/1 Grams And Ounces, 25/1 Bateau Bleu, 33/1 Almutaham, 40/1 Petrocelli.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIGRE D'ARON made a promising debut when runner-up in a big field at Pau last month for Jacques Ortet and, while it's not easy to pin down exactly what the form is worth, he's the most intriguing runner in the field. It would be particularly significant if the market speaks in his favour. The other hurdling form on offer is rather ordinary and he may have most to fear from some of the newcomers to this game.[Steven Boow]

4/7 - - - 7/1 price gapper here this Tigre D'aron and we would need to have faith in the betting market as this is a maiden hurdle and there are some debutants to the sphere. Also Tigre's sole run is in France and the formlines are not immediately transferable.

235 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alfie Sherrin, 9/4 Glenwood Knight, 5/1 Knockavilla, 7/1 Sir Tantallus Hawk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Glenwood Knight has claims but he may struggle to give weight to very useful hurdler ALFIE SHERRIN, who shaped with promise on his chase debut in a strong event at Bangor - form that has been franked several times.[Richard Young]

Form franked several times for Alfie Sherrin in a potential match up here. 4 horses and 2 places for these novice chasers.

220 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rhal, 7/2 William Wainwright, 9/2 Torteval, 8/1 Amore Et Labore, 10/1 Titan Diamond, 20/1 Gekko, 25/1 Princess Gail, 33/1 Look´n´listen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to make a case for too many of these and Rhal, Torteval and WILLIAM WAINWRIGHT look the three to concentrate on. The selection was behind Rhal last time, but he didn't give his running there and there is still the prospect of some improvement now he is upped to 7f.[Paul Smith]

Rhal now odds on in a 7 runner race which should still be 3 places on Betfair. Torteval represents a Guernsey bookmaker who likes a punt.

505 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 French Hollow, 6/1 Dart, 6/1 Lynott, 10/1 Accompanist, 10/1 Bute Street, 33/1 Bolton Hall, 33/1 Ravi River.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dart's comeback effort at Southwell was too bad to be true but, like the others, she'll do well to stop the progressive FRENCH HOLLOW (nap) completing his hat-trick.[Graham Wheldon]

It's a Channel Island day it would seem at Wolves , with Torteval, Cobo Bay and Jersey Joe all running.

French Hollow though looks a standout price gapper here.4/7 - - - 11/2 With only 2 places we will get a reasonable price in the place market. Has won his last 2 and multiple handicap winners will lose eventually as the weight catches up with them. Career high mark today for French Hollow - will he get the hatrick or will it be a bridge too far?

SHORTLIST

7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere - i would back over 2.5 goals until Fortuna's 100% record ends, but I am less keen when it becomes a bet and not a trade as this match is not in running.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar - 1.59 home - go ahead eagles are clearly dominant at home against bottom 7 sides, scoring 8,3,3 to no reply. Telstar are 3rd bottom. Chance to lay Telstar here?Not in running though and an illiquid market.

1255 WETHERBY - Tigre D-aron is a huge price gapper - is that enough to back at 1.16 to place?