Or do I go for the obvious? PSV in the win only market at 1.1 looks great. Barcelona will show Hercules this evening that the 2-0 home defeat was due to the first the Barca first team were in action mid week in Argentina for a meaningless Spain v Argentina friendly. This looks a strong 1.17 and too good to ignore. Lightening will not strike twice ( it's available at 140 for 2-0 Hercules)
Decisions, decisions!!
Another strong day today
*****ONE A DAY 7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - back Barcelona in the match odds at 1.17***** - lightening surely does not strike twice. This is a strong message today that I will personally not be wasting. There are many strong bets between now and 7pm.
Possible multiple?
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of course multiples increase our risk of a loser, but with the lays incorporated, we are covering 2 out of 3 outcomes in 5 of those matches.
Empire Levant won and the place price was around 1.2 again which, given the task, was welcome.
1250 - Swansea v L Orient - 1.47 home - Championship v League 1 - FA Cup. Last played 2008 where Swansea, in last 2 head to heads, scored 5 and 4 ( 2007 and 2008) - Swansea won last 4 matches 1-0, 1-0, 4-0, 3-0 at home. Leyton have drawn 50% of their last 12 away matches
230pm - W Bremen v B Munich - 1.75 away - strugglers v a team that goes 3rd with a win. - last 2 head to heads at Werder produced 5 and 4 goals. Only 2 away wins for bayern is too inconsistent, so perhaps default to a neutral goals bet, but only a 1/3rd of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
7/9 Werder home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.41 away - Scottish League Cup so watch out for changes in team
3pm - Burnley v Burton - 1.37 home - FA Cup, Championship v League 2. Form is not comparible, but Burton have won only once in last 11 away matches.
3pm - Linfield v Ballymena - 1.28 home - 1-0, and 2 draws in last 3 head to heads is not compelling enough to back Linfield despite solid recent winning form.
3pm - Nuneaton v Redditch Utd - 1.19 home - English conference match and I simply cannot trust these lower leagues ( and freely admit to knowing little about these leagues)
515pm - Southampton v Man Utd - 1.51 away - will Man Utd be wearing a grey strip today? And will that be the excuse if they lose. Again no real point in comparing form for 2 completely separate leagues, albeit to acknowledge United's unbeaten league record. Team news key.
530pm - Panathinaikos v Ergotelis - 1.31 home - 3-0, 4-1, 4-1 head to heads are convincing for Pana.7 points behind Oly, Pana must win. Playing 6th today but 41 points v 25 points tells you this is also rans territory!
WWWD in last 4 matches. DWWWDWWLWW at home for Pana. 3 home and 2 away matches v the top 5 have all been losses for Ergotelis which signals that there is a slight gap in class to the better teams.
Only 1 loss in last 7 for Ergo is a change in fortunes, 3 draws and 4 wins ( 3 of those wins came at home)
0-0 ( home), 0-1 ( away), 0-0 ( home) last 3. Will they be defensive ruiners today?
645pm - AZ Alkmaar v VVV - 1.24 home - Dutch top flight - draw and 1-0 wins in last 2 head to head ( both at VVV)
2nd from bottom for VVV and -19 goal difference says it all.
7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - 1.17 away - revenge is a dish best served away from home. Only defeat this season for Barca came after half their first team had to travel mid week to Argentina for an Argentina v Spain pointless friendly. Simply caught with their pants down at home. Expect thorough retribution tonight.
Current winning streak of 14 for Barca, and have won all 9 away matches.
Unbeaten in 18, and 89% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3,8,3,5,4 the goals scored in last 5 away matches by Barcelona.
With Champions League not until 16th February, you would expect the strongest possible side to be played and swift revenge.
LDLL against top 6 at home, but won against all outside the top 6 at home ( 5 wins) - a huge contrast when Hercules meet the elite.
Hercules have won their last 4 home matches, but remember this is against teams outside the top 6.
Lost 3 of last 4 matches ( 3 aways)
745pm - PSV v Willem II - 1.1 home - PSV have only lost one in last 12 in all competitions. Willem II have only won 1 in last 12 in all competitions and that was the 1-0 last time out against fellow strugglers Vitesse Arnhem.
PSV unbeaten in last 11 matches in all competitions. PSV are only one point ahead of Twente so must win when priced to do so and at home.
Only 2 defeats all season for PSV in 20 matches. Have only dropped points at home against the top 4 sides, and beat everyone else Against bottom 7 sides at home ( Willem are bottom), PSV have scored 6,5,10,4,3 and at 1.11 expected to replicate at least the 3 goals.
8 losses and 2 draws away. 1-0 win last time out the only win all season for Willem II
Have lost 2-0 to Ajax away, so a score to nil today would bump up the odds.
In only 1 match have they conceded less than 2 away.
8pm - Lille v Lens - 1.4 home - draw, win , win, for Lille in most recent head to heads. 4-1 last time out.Top of the league and such a tight head of the market means this is a must win for Lille to keep the 4 point gap which is a perfect gap ( with 3 points for a win) over the opponents.
Lens are 4th from bottom and just out of the relegation zone
Lille are unbeaten in 10, and not conceded in 2.7 wins and 3 draws in those 10 matches.
WWWDW at home.
Against 17th and 18th away, Lille scored 4 and 5 ( Lens are 17th)
Lens are undefeated in 3, including 2 home wins, against 8th ( bit of a shock) and 18th ( not so much a shock)
Lens have only won 1 away match all season and that was against the bottom side.
They have not played any of the top 5 away so I cannot gauge performance but they have lost 3 and drawn 1 to top 5 they have played at home.
1-1 draws away to 5th and 6th a slight concern.
815pm - Gil Vicente v Porto - 1.37 away - Portugeuse league cup so take an opinion based on league form if you must. This should go with the top flighters of Porto based on form and playing in a better league than the home side.
230 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Punchestowns, 5/2 Tidal Bay, 6/1 The Tother One, 8/1 Neptune Collonges, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tidal Bay would be hard to beat on these terms if again running to his best, as when second in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time. However, his overall record, including a well-held third in this race in 2009, raises enough doubts for preference to be for former top-class staying hurdler PUNCHESTOWNS, who made a bright start over fences last season before injury intervened and whose reappearance second at Newbury in December was perfectly satisfactory. Neptune Collonges may be best of the other three.[Mel Cullinan]
A high class favourite but only 2 places - Tidal Bay has been the one for support.
110 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alaivan, 11/10 Carlito Brigante.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two identically-rated rivals here, but slight preference is for ALAIVAN to confirm Triumph superiority having started the season with a comfortable win at Naas in November. [Alan Sweetman]
Simple 50/50
1250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Wilfred Pickles, 8/1 King Of The Titans, 20/1 Mr Maximas, 66/1 Star Danser, 100/1 Bird Dog, 100/1 Ippi N Tombi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WILFRED PICKLES is very hard to oppose in this company. Winning hurdler King Of The Titans can get second.[Graeme North]
Very obvious contender here. King of the Titans looks the value alternative.
105 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Empress Orchid, 7/2 Saoma, 6/1 Diamond Mm, 25/1 Qualitee, 33/1 Misstaysia, 50/1 Go Ruby Go.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is an obvious concern this race will come too soon for form-pick Pepite Rose after yesterday's exertions and, although Soama should be checked in the market, the one to beat is probably EMPRESS ORCHID.[Frank Carter]
Only 3 under 25/1 and amzingly still 3 places
135 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Smuglin, 2/1 Evella, 16/1 Here´s The Key, 16/1 Home She Goes.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Evella may not have achieved much when gaining her first win over fences but her hurdling form earns her respect and she is capable of giving SMUGLIN plenty to think about.[Frank Carter]
4 horses and 2 places
SHORTLIST
515pm - Southampton v Man Utd - 1.51 away - looks tradeable - back at 1.51 and hope United score first. Or prepare for an enhanced trade if Southampton score first.530pm - Panathinaikos v Ergotelis - 1.31 home - head to heads, 3,4,4 scored against Ergotelis - Ergo have lost in all encounters v top 5. Are on a slight revival but they struggle against top 5.
7pm - Hercules v Barcelona - 1.17 away - revenge the reason to back Barcelona. No midweek excursions to Argentina this time so a convincing away win on the cards.
745pm - PSV v Willem II - 1.1 home - over 2.5 goals an option here to better the odds, as it halftime/fulltime PSV/PSV - 1.28 over 2.5 goals and 1.33 half time PSV - opponents lead in only 5% of PSV's matches at half time.
20 goals scored at home, but 36 scored 2nd half for PSV but this is a PSV side at 1.11.
Opponents lead at half time in 55% of Willem's matches. Willem have lost at half time to all top teams they have played. Slight concern with their recent form
8pm - Lille v Lens - 1.4 home - could be a nice price for a team who beat Lens 4-1 last time out.
1250 LINGFIELD - Wilfred Pickles is 1.15 to win with Mr Maximas the 2nd fancy now at 2.22 to place.
105 UTTOXETER - best probability race - only 3 under 25/1 and 3 places.
1-1 Empress Orchid, 1.38 Saoma, 1.4 Diamond MM to place. Faith in the market and a clear round.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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