*****ONE A DAY - 105 MUSSELBURGH - Koalak to place. Around 1.18***** I hope he puts in a clear round.
Easy for over 1.5 goals yesterday and traders would have backed Man Utd at 2-0 down . I also mentioned looking out for late goals as Blackpool, West Brom and Wolves all concede late ( no coincidence that they are all promoted sides)
Dolgopolov gave Murray a good match, which was ideal for the 1.14 lay trade of Murray.
2pm - Atromitos Yeroskipou v Omonia - 1.4 away - 6-0 first leg and a question mark regarding motivation . Note Barcelona were in a similar position in their 2nd leg against a team they beat 5-0 in the first leg. They lost 3-1. Psychologically it is so difficult for a team to get up again for the match.
4pm - Gaziantepspor v Beypazari Sekerspor - 1.38 home - top flight v Turkey TFF.2 League so a marked gulf in class. DDDDWDW for Gaziantepspor in their last 7 matches -we can see a slight problem here.
DDWWDWDDLWDD for Beypazari - more draws. Gaziantepspor have played a lot of friendlies recently so that form cannot really be taken to heart. Still the draws are a slight concern.
6th in Turkish top flight so are handy. Have won 2 at home against 3rd and 4th in the league.
7pm - Sevilla v Real Madrid - Spanish Cup and the general trend is towards goals here. 4,7,6,3,5,1 -total goals scored in their last 6 head to heads. The 1 was the last match in head to heads and looks anomolous.
2-4 and 2-1 at Sevilla for head to heads. Trust in goals. I would need to see team news for Real Madrid as the Special One might tinker. This is the first leg.
Sevilla have won 4 of their last 5 at home in all competitions.
LDW last 3 away for Real, but one was 2nd leg v a Levante side they absolutely spanked. Of more concern was the 1-1 draw v Almeria.
Difficult to judge Real Madrid here.
730pm - Aachen v B Munich - 1.34 away - Division 2 v Division 1 in the German Cup -faith in the big boys - 10th in Division 2 and lost against 2/3 of the top 5 they have played at home. This I would equate to lower half of Bundesliga top flight ( if that makes sense)
WDWLW last 5 for Aachen is reasonable form.
Bayern have lost only one of last 12 in the league so have returned to the kind of consistency that should ensure they climb up the table.
WWWWWDW in last 7 for Bayern in all competitions is great form - WWWD last 4 away matches - the 1-1 draw saw a missed penalty by Bayern which could have swung things in their favour ( Bayern's opponents did miss a penalty too though)
730pm - White Star Woluwe v Gent - 1.34 away - Division 3b versus top flight. -pretty much a reliance on the gulf in the leagues here for another cup match.
745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home- this is a league match so should see a motivated Porto side.Porto have won the last 4 league encounters and have lost 2 against Nacional when they have met in the Cup.
3-0, 4-0, 2-0 ( Home, Away, Away) and Porto have shut out Nacional in their last 3 head to heads. Priced to be as dominant tonight.
8 points ahead in the league and a +33 goal difference tells you the strengths of Porto.
Unbeaten all season. How about this for form - WWWWWWDWWWWDWWWWW in the league for Porto.
At home it is a case of WWWWWWWWW and only once have they scored less than 2 goals at home.
Nacional are 5th at present so no pushovers, although this season Porto won 2-0 away.
Nacional's weaknesses begin to show when they play teams in the top 7 of the league. They lost 4-2 away to 2nd placed Benfica, drew 1-1 with Sporting, lost 2-1 to 6th placed Leiria and lost 2-0 to Braga. It is really against the bottom teams where Nacional have come good.
In 17 matches, Nacional have only scored 2 goals in the first half of matches.
Porto have scored 22 in the first half and conceded only 2 goals . Can you see where I'm headed? Lay Nacional at half time, back Porto and hope they score first as the stats indicate they should.
830pm - Rio Ave v Benfica - 1.41 away - Portugeuse cup does not really interest.
9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - WWWDW and an 8-0 away league win last time out. Beware the wounded animal who will not want to suffer another humiliation. 1.08 tells you this should be over 3.5 goal territory.
Barca have scored 29 and conceded 5 in the first half of league matches this season. This is a Cup match albeit against a team in the top flight. Almeria gave Real Madrid a scare when Real visited and showed a fighting spirit which may frustrate Barca. This is the first round of the Cup and there is always a concern that teams will not be busting a gut if they lose or draw the first round.
Any play here would be reliant on team news.
Be wary too - new management for Almeria .Lost 4, won 6 and drawn 2 since that 8-0 thumping by Barca which cost the previous manager his job.
2-3 ( away win), 2-1 ( home win), 4-3 (home win) , 3-4 ( away win) , 1-0 home win, 2-3 away win for Almeria in the Cup means that this 1.08 for Barca could be layable.
I suspect we will see the first team for Barca which should result in a win, my only concern is whether to go halftime/fulltime Barca /Barca and over 2.5 goals to enhance the odds.
2359pm - Corinthians v Tolima - 1.34 home - Corinthians have either won or drawn their last 12 and WWWWWD last 6 in all competitions at home. This is the Copa Libertadores tonight.
Tolima come from the Columbian lower leagues it would seem. My knowledge is weak as regards this competition and how it is formated and that gap in knowledge may leave me deciding the wrong thing.
115 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Araldur, 9/4 Spanish Treasure, 11/2 Alystar, 13/2 Robin De Creuse, 12/1 High Hoylander, 14/1 Mr Chow, 16/1 Nobunaga, 20/1 Prince Of Dreams, 25/1 Lombok, 33/1 Fourth In Line, 33/1 Kayaan, 50/1 Ptolomeos, 66/1 Bahr Nothing, 100/1 Whatshallwedo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Araldur sets the standard on his reappearance second behind a useful type at Leicester and is strongly respected but slight preference is for SPANISH TREASURE who looked highly promising when winning at Hereford and is open to plenty of improvement.[David Moon]
Only 4 under 20/1 so faith in Aruldur to place for Thornton/King
735 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 But Beautiful, 7/2 Bold Ring, 11/2 Profligate, 8/1 Perfect Ch´i, 10/1 Pragmatist, 16/1 Pippbrook Ministar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The well-bred BUT BEAUTIFUL has stepped up massively on her debut effort with two wins at this track, beating Bold Ring last time, and should have plenty more to offer.[Steven Boow]
Huge price gapper here in But Beautiful who holds steady at 8/13 here. A 14 day course and distance winner, is the weight going to get But Beautiful as it did French Hollow?
Heavy ground at Limerick precludes interest there.
355 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kahfre, 5/4 Bull Five, 16/1 Gabrielle Da Vinci, 16/1 Sirdave, 25/1 Harrys, 33/1 Set Em Up Mo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kahfre may not be entirely straightforward and drops back half a mile in distance but he's the marginal pick on official figures in a weak maiden. Given the potential chinks in his armour, preference is for main form rival BULL FIVE.[Steven Boow]
3 under 16/1 here - trust them in this maiden?
Bull five looks the choice here with all sorts of contraptions fitted on Kahfre.
105 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kaolak, 6/4 Silverlord, 17/2 Raleigh Quay, 25/1 Northern Acres, 33/1 Jersey Boys, 33/1 Lisbon Lion, 33/1 Via Archimede, 50/1 Dirleton, 50/1 Parc Des Princes, 50/1 Takaatuf, 66/1 Davy Boy Legend, 100/1 Cool Baranca, 200/1 Lambrini Lace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Essentially a match between Silverlord and KAOLAK, who were both around Listed class on the Flat and have gradually got it together over hurdles. The penalty brings them close together, with slight preference for the latter, who has that bit more toe on drying ground.[Graham Wheldon]
Only 3 under 25/1 here at time of writing. Which to choose? Any choice would assume that both horses place.
405 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Felix Yonger, 5/1 D´gigi, 10/1 Distime, 12/1 Big Sam, 12/1 Dizzy River, 16/1 Way To Finish, 20/1 De Vine Memory, 50/1 Civil Unrest, 66/1 Pas Trop Tard.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Optimist's Cheltenham backers will be looking for FELIX YONGER, who chased him home when both made their debut around the New Year, to give the effort a boost.[Graham Wheldon]
Bumpers, as you know, rely on the market and at time of writing, Distime is really fancied and backed into 2nd favourite at 5/2. Big Sam is another potential market mover into 8/1 .
9 horse race this one and there are only 4 under 20/1 - I reiterate that the market at about 4pm will make our minds up as regards whether Felix Yonger will still be head of the market.
SHORTLIST
7pm - Sevilla v Real Madrid - the last match was an anomolous 1 match affair and the return of Kaka ( lives up to his name) to Real Madrid's squad simply squashes the previous free flowing football of previously. 1.2 over 1.5 goals. This is nowhere near as nailed on as Blackpool v Man Utd for instance as Real have been poor of late. This is a 2 legged match too so a 1-0 for Real Madrid would suffice.We cannot legislate for changes in team news either for Real.
730pm - Aachen v B Munich - 1.34 away - German Cup match and the hope is that the gulf in class should tell for Bayern here. Away matches always of some concern in the Cup. But this is a one leg affair judging by the fixture list for Bayern. Robben plays and that makes the difference. A very tough match for Bayern in a difficult betting day.
730pm - White Star Woluwe v Gent - 1.34 away - should be a win for the 3rd in the top flight away side .
745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home-this all points to a home win to nil given Nacional's poor record away to top 7 sides .
9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - different manager and wounded animal syndrome makes this a potential frustrating evening for Barca, but against 1.08 sides they have managed to score easily and early.
115 HUNTINGDON - 4 under 25/1 here but both favs are currently 2/1 and the other 2 horses are the flies in the ointment - one WILL NOT PLACE, but which one?
1.34 for Aruldur and 1.38 for Spanish Treasure
355 LINGFIELD - looks like a 2 horse race if the market can be trusted in this maiden. Kahfre is the place only market fancy with Bull five next at 1.3 to place ( illiquid market) - the latter could be the choice given Kahfre is wearing visors and all sorts.
105 MUSSELBURGH - 3 horses under 33/1 only here , so which of Kaolak, Silverlord and Raleigh Quay will falter ( if any?)
1.18 Kaolak and Silver Lord to place. Can we rely on the betting and their jumping ( novice hurdlers)
405 MUSSELBURGH and 735 KEMPTON both need market consultation nearer the off ( the former because it is a bumper and the latter because it is some 8 hours prior as I write)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
A sever lack of market interest until we see £1800 in at 1.27 which is where we are at with Ladbrokes.
745pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.21 home - Nacional have scored 2 goals only in the first half of their 17 matches in the League this year.Porto have scored 22 and conceded only 2. In fact all season they have conceded only 7. In the first hour of all matches they have conceded only 2 and scored 27 goals. Logic therefore dictates they are the team more likely to score in this match ( head to heads in the league back this up too, as does Nacional's poor away form against top 7 (LDLL)
Slight concern Porto have not met 3rd, 4th at home ( playing 5th today) so we cannot gauge how they played against better sides at home.
Nacional may be 5th but remember they have 25 points as against Porto's 47.
9pm - Barcelona v Almeria - 1.08 home - Barca were around this price against Racing and Malaga ( 2-0 and 3-0 within half an hour) - can they do so again v Almeria who might be a frustrating side to play against in this 1st leg cup match
355 LINGFIELD - Bullfive has a good place only chance in a race where only 2 are under 18/1. yes a maiden, but faith in the market. Only 2 places and Bullfive is the bigger priced of the 2.
105 MUSSELBURGH - should be between Silver Lord and Koalak -trust these 2 to put in a clear round. I cannot split them and would go with Kaolak.
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