back-lay-trade-horses-football

Heavy ground at the jumps venues is offputting but 110 Chepstow should see Sam Winner competitive ( but 1.1 a little stingy ) - there are better priced football bets today, the only concern is choosing the one that will not slip up.
My shortlist?
Bolton at home - change in team today for Owen Coyle?
Aberdeen at home against a side with no recent games under their belts.
Bordeaux - play the sequences here - priced to end the 5 game draw sequence against inferior opposition.
Huddersfield - strong home form against weaker league.
Barcelona - keep backing them away 6 times they have scored 3 or more - perfect 100% record. On a high after mid week Cup match at Ath Bilbao.

*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Bolton v York City - back Bolton at 1.27 - Premier League v Conferene - the hope is that even a marginally weakened Bolton side should win with such a gulf in class and a solid home record.

If Cup games make you squeamish, then surely Barca can continue their goalscoring exploits away from home?

1245 - Arsenal v Leeds - 1.3 home. Arsenal have not won anything since 2005 so will be taking this seriously and with home advantage look to justify the odds.
230pm - Bangor City v Haverfordwest - 1.17 home -WDWW in head to heads for Bangor but they've all been close. Bangor have lost their last 2, Haverford have won their last 2.
Top v 2nd from bottom
Perfect league record at home for Bangor, 11/12 wins at home ( loss in League Cup)
3,3,6,1,4,4 the goals conceded away by Haverford until they won 2-0 away last time. 1.17 though signals a return to 3+ goals for Bangor.
3pm - Aberdeen v East Fife - 1.25 home - 5-0 in Feb 2009 - my concern is the weather in Scotland - snowing in Ireland. 5 of East Fife's last 6 games have been postponed so they will be rusty.
7 losses for Aberdeen halted by a WWD last 3 matches so they are finding form again.
Premier League v Division 2.
3pm - Bolton v York City - 1.27 - standout so far for me if this is the first team for an impressive Bolton. - Premier league v Conference - this 1.27 looks huge! Bolton's only loss in last 12 at home was against Liverpool.

3pm - Fulham v Peterborough - 1.41 home - Premiership v League 1 - too many draws recently for Fulham in the League but they have 2 wins in last 3 matches.
3pm - Hibernian v Ayr - 1.33 home LDLLDL for Hibs last 6 matches. Premiership v Division 2.
3pm - Huddersfield v Dover - 1.32 home - League 1 v Conference South and only 3 1-0 losses in last 12 for Huddersfield at home.
3pm - Inverness CT v Elgin - 1.22 home - Premier v Division 3 - 6-0 in July 2010 .No wins in last 6 for Inverness but that includes 2 draws v the old Firm but 3 losses on the trot last 3 games.
Trust the huge gulf in leagues?
3pm - St Mirren v Peterhead - 1.34 home - Premier v Division 2.
3pm - Al Wakrah v B Munich - illiquid market
445pm - Bordeaux v Rouen - 1.34 home - Division 1 v Division 3 - Bordeaux have drawn 7 of their last 9 and against weaker opposition should end the run of 5 consecutive draws . They have also drawn 4 of their last 5 at home.
5pm - Egypt v Uganda - 1.34 home
715pm - Porto v Maritimo - 1.23 home - perfect home record , only 2 draws all season.
WWDWLW head to heads but 4-1 most recently for Porto fits in with the odds today.
Marotimo are on an 8 game unbeaten run, DWDDDWWD
DDDDW away in last 5 so caution for Porto.
Have lost 1-0 home and away to 2nd and 3rd so again caution.
9pm - Deportivo v Barcelona - 1.25 away- Barca have scored 3 in their last 2 head to heads. But at Depor, last head to heads read LDW
Lucky for us, all Barca's matches are must wins - only 2 points ahead of Real Madrid.
100% away record - -3,2,3,2,3,8,3,5 scored away by Barca.
Depor have lost all away matches v top 3, 1-0 to Villareal by 6-0 v Real - at home they have not played top 3.
Only loss at home v Almeria.
DDLDWWWD is decent enough home form but I reiterate they have not met top 5 at home yet.
Depor have conceded only 1 in their last 5 home matches so a degree of caution or accept this is Barca!!!

CHEPSTOW - soft -heavy in places
110

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sam Winner, 2/1 Smad Place, 8/1 Dolatulo, 8/1 Marsh Warbler, 25/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 40/1 Kalamill, 66/1 Royal And Ancient, 100/1 Flighty Frances.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting clash of the first two in the Triumph Hurdle betting, namely SAM WINNER and Smad Place. Sam Winner, already a Grade 2 winner, is the one to beat on form but Smad Place destroyed Dolatulo at Newbury on his British debut and looks a smart prospect in his own right. This looks a key trial in the build-up to the juvenile blue riband at Cheltenham in March.[Steven Boow]

Should be a 4 horse race for 3 places

Front 2 in the betting if the soft/heavy is of no concern?

Sam Winner has the form on heavy so default to him?

PUNCHESTOWN - HEAVY GROUNF

155

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Joe Smooth, 5/1 Whatever Jacksays, 7/1 Celtic Wish, 8/1 Star Of Aragon, 10/1 Mr Shahady, 16/1 Where´d Ya Hide It, 20/1 Battle Bound, 20/1 Par Five, 25/1 Seaway Prince, 25/1 Viaduct Bud, 33/1 Green Grenello, 33/1 Gryllus, 50/1 Carrig More Annie, 50/1 Jaybenali.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This look a straightforward assignment for JOE SMOOTH (nap) who was a clear second-best behind a good novice at Leopardstown. Place possibilities include Whatever Jacksays, Celtic Wish and Star Of Aragon. [Alan Sweetman]

4/6 - - - 7/1 in the betting for Joe Smooth -has run on soft/heavy last 2 runs

305 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Blackstairmountain, 7/2 Rick, 6/1 Big Game Hunter, 20/1 Bella Mana Mou, 33/1 Imperial Shabra.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN, a Grade 1 winner at Punchestown last season, can get his season back on track by accounting for his four rivals in this 'winners of two'. [Brian Fleming]

3 horses for 2 places here and another great probability race.

Blackstairmountain has won on heavy.

335 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Samain, 5/1 Our Cobajay, 6/1 Espresso Lady, 8/1 Jack The Pirate, 9/1 Cairdin, 12/1 Premier Rule, 14/1 Fennis Ted, 14/1 High Cholesterol, 16/1 Wild Artist, 20/1 Galzig.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is hard to look beyond SAMAIN who was only just beaten on his only start last season. The main dangers may be first-timers Our Cobajay and Espresso Lady, with the market likely to supply some clues about the pair. [Alan Sweetman]

Price gapper who ran on heavy, plenty of newcomers though but the Mullins?Mullins mafia deserve respect.

276 day absence though

130 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Comedy Act, 4/1 Sea Change, 5/1 Music Of The Moor, 11/2 Professeur Emery, 10/1 Whitby Jack, 33/1 Ibn Hiyyan, 33/1 Kayef, 33/1 Missionaire, 33/1 Usquaebach, 66/1 Lamps, 66/1 Zambuka, 100/1 Terra Bleu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COMEDY ACT, generally on offer at 20-1 for the Triumph Hurdle, won readily enough in the end when long odds-on at Plumpton on his first attempt over hurdles and looks sure to benefit from the experience. He is the likeliest winner but would be hard pressed to give weight to such as Music Of The Moor and Sea Change on the Flat and Professeur Emery should not be underestimated either.[Frank Carter]

Still a price gapper but soft/heavy again

SHORTLIST

Big question marks about going today in the racing.

110 CHEPSTOW though looks a great probability bet today. 4 horses under 25/1 and Sam Winner is a winner on heavy and would be my choice. 1.1 to place a bit stingy.

305 PUNCHESTOWN - Blackstairmountain has the form in the ground. 1.16 to place ( 2 places) quite generous for a horse of this calibre.