5/1

The 310 and 340 Southwell are the first races of interest, the former a maiden hurdle which should involve the 4 under 33/1 for the places.Timesawastin may be my choice here as he last ran only 69 days ago as opposed to the 200+ days of Problema Tic.
The 340 Southwell is a bumper with Knights Pass strongly fancied ( bumpers ideally need market consultation) - only 4 under 18/1, we always run the risk of the perennial "dark horses" in these bumpers, particularly with 14 runners.
The 635 Kempton sees Buaiteoir in an 8 runner race for 3 places and he could be competitive here - 1142 the form - last ran 2 days ago.

Football wise, will Olympiakos continue their strong form at home, despite Iraklis winning the last 2 head to heads ( all at Iraklis)

Arsenal and City is an interesting match this evening, and under 4.5 goals at 1.18 should have a good chance of coming in.



*****ONE A DAY - 745pm -

The place only market signals only 4 for consideration here in this maiden hurdle. I choose this one as he has hurdles experience, and only ran 69 days ago as opposed to Problema Tic's 236 days off.
A risk with the race type but I am hoping the betting market is accurate.


Mandy's Hero finished 2nd as I had hoped, and if you look at yesterday's race, you will see an ideal each way race. 8/1 this 2nd favourite at the off and the only horse, seemingly, who was placed to exploit any under par performance by Quality Art. Not only that, but by placing at 8/1 you get your stake returned ( not so place and win betting on Betfair as the odds were under evens)

1pm - OFI v Pierikos - 1.34 home - Greek 2nd flight so perhaps not the ideal league for betting in but let's see if OFI can justify the price.
3 wins and a draw in 4 head to heads - 2 2-1's , a 1-0, and a 0-0.
OFI have lost their last 3 on the trot away which has spoilt their good run somewhat, but at home they are strong.WDWWDWWW at home for OFI. OFI have scored 2,2,4 in last 3 home matches and also conceded 1, so goals bets here?Pierikos are unbeaten in their last 3 matches WDD.
LLLLWLD away for Pierikos.
5 of those matches have been over 2.5 goals. One 2-0 loss and 0-0 most recently.

230pm - U.A.E. v Australia - 1.96 away - am I missing something or should the Ozzies not be shorter ( a full squad would make this a cracking price - concerns would be the weather) - this is not the Asian Cup yet so is a friendly hence the price.
Form lines are not really comparative.
430pm - Marseille v Cartagena La Union - 1.21 home - this is a friendly and is a very illiquid market. You would expect Marseille to spank this lot
"Fútbol Club Cartagena-La Unión is a football team based in La Unión, Murcia. Founded in 2001, the team plays in Tercera División Group 13."
The next league match for Marseille is 15th January and with the French league being so tight, you would expect Marseille to field their first team here for this friendly which should leave them ticking over during the Xmas break.
530pm - Olympiakos v Iraklis - 1.27 home - game and 2 points in hand over Pana so should be winning home matches in order to maintain advantage.
WWD at home for Olympiakos but check out the last 3 head to heads 1-1 draw ( Oly at home), 1-0 Iraklis win ( Iraklis at home), 2-1 Iraklis win (Iraklis at home)
Now what we need to determine is whether Iraklis just have one over Oly at home, or that they are a bogey team for Oly. As you can see, Oly at home v Iraklis are a lot different to Oly away .
WWLWWWWLWWWW for Olympiakos in their last 12 matches is imperious form.
Olympiakos are on a 4 match winning streak, but check out the scorelines for the last 5 matches,
1-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 ( first was a loss and last a cup match) - This is worrying and typically Greek !!
7 home wins on the trot and scorelines are a lot different 2,3,3,1,5,3,2 the goals scored by Olympiakos at home .
Lost 2-1 to Iraklis away ( 11th ) but against 10th and 12th at home, Oly have won 2-0 and 2-1 which should give us a guide as to the likely scoreline.
DDDDLLL away for Iraklis Lost 4-2 v Panathanaikos and Pana and Oly are closely matched in my eyes .
Iraklis have lost their last 3 away matches 4-2, 1-0, 1-0.
Iraklis at home are good v the top teams - they have beaten 1st, 3rd and 5th and lost away to 2nd and 4th.
So will the away form continue or can Iraklis transfer their home form to their away matches?

745pm - Arsenal v Man City - I would be interested in a goals bet here this evening. Of interest is under 4.5 goals at 1.18 - yes Arsenal and City have seen goals recently but City away against top 8 has been 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 - yes Arsenal have seen 2-3, 3-1 and 4-1 in their home matches against top 7, but I am hoping the City defence will be stronger today

745pm - Wolves v Chelsea - 1.65 away - back into 4th place with a win for Chelsea and a win for Wolves will take them out of the bottom 3 so a very interesting match this evening.
Against the bottom 5, Chelsea have won 2 home and 2 away and drawn both home and away against Villa.
Chelsea have already beaten Wolves 2-0.
5/5 in head to heads and in 4 of the last 5 matches Wolves have not scored against Chelsea.
In Chelsea's last 10 matches, they have won 2, lost 4 and drawn 4.
They must win at some stage again.
LLDDL in last 5 away matches for Chelsea.
WWL in their last 3 home matches for Wolves.
Against top 8 at home, 4 of the 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals, with the other 2-0 loss v Arsenal.
I would expect Chelsea to score this evening but can I trust Wolves to score?

8pm - Bolton v Wigan - 1.79 home
1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 4-0, 1-1 -the overwhelming head to head bias is towards opposing goals.
Bolton at home have only lost once , 1-0 v Liverpool.
WWWDWW at home for Bolton, the draw 2-2 v Blackpool.
I have been impressed by Bolton who lost narrowly away to Chelsea and by a 93rd minute goal at Anfield.
Wigan have not played teams around Bolton's position in the league.
LLLLDW away for Wigan lately - signs of a recovery?
4,5,2,2,2 the goals scored by Bolton at home in their last 5. I would be reluctant to back goals and would perhaps back 0-0 as a trade here as this should be tight for a concerted period.


The racing post website is down today which makes my analysis of the horse racing very difficult. I have the racing post newspaper in digital format which is good and will take my prices from www.oddschecker.com.
I will not be able to show you the betting forecast and spotlight verdict which I normally cut and paste from the website.

435 KEMPTON -
big price gapper here in Stirling Ridge , currently 4/9 with next best at 6/1
Temperament issue but " miles ahead of the assessor"
7 runners down to 6 and still 3 places.

635 KEMPTON - 8 runners and 3 places, Buaiteoir looks good here if he can replicate his recent form .Only 3 under 9/1

255 LINGFIELD
9/4 - - - 7/1 price gapper for Kidlat who won last time out.

1240 SOUTHWELL - -6am inspection
This is now a 4 horse race with Bellvano 1/5 and one of only 2 under 14/1 with Hold Fast - this is a novices chase and this is a newcomer to chases so a clear round should ensure a win, but you will recall over the winter the high profile chase debutants who crashed out ( I think Celestial Halo was one wasn't he?)

210 SOUTHWELL - Smokey George put me in my place yesterday winning easily - he is 10/11 fav here but I think he will be withdrawn. That may bring in 2nd favourite Talesofriverbank.

310 SOUTHWELL - Maiden hurdle 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 33/1 with Problema Tic, Times a wastin and MAnagement the 3 against the field.

340 SOUTHWELL - bumper with Knight Pass already a bumper winner and strong favourite here
AS you know the market is key with bumpers but as a winner already, can we trust Knight Pass to give his running again ( no obstacles to face today)

SHORTLIST

Inadequate today really without the Racing Post website but I hope this will not impact research too much.

530pm - Olympiakos v Iraklis - 1.27 home - WWLWWWWLWWWW for Olympiakos - 2,3,3,1,5,3,2 the goals scored by Olympiakos at home . - Are these enough to assuage the 4 1-0's in Oly's last 5 matches and the head to heads which read DLL for Oly ( Iraklis were at home)

745pm - Arsenal v City - chance on under 4.5 goals at 1.18 despite these 2 teams reputations for goals, but City's away form v top 8 signals a certain change of tack towards defending.

745pm - Wolves v Chelsea - 1.65 away - back 0-0 to trade? I would expect, if head to heads are anything to go by, that any goal will be scored first by Chelsea which makes the 1.65 tradeable.
Not as strong as Man Utd were yesterday.

1240 SOUTHWELL - this is a 4 horse race for 2 places making Bellvano 1.11 to place appealing in a 50/50 race. A novices chase so no easy task.
Hold Fast would be value here at 1.49 to place if we can rely on the market.

310 SOUTHWELL - Problema Tic is 1.17 to place with Timesawastin 1.31 to place in a race where only 4 are under 33/1 - maiden hurdle so clear round required.

340 SOUTHWELL - Knight Pass 1.17 to place is clear in the place only market with next best 1.74 - has won his bumper so looks a great opportunity.

635 KEMPTON - Buaiteoir is in an 8 runner race for 3 places so is interesting here




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