Elsewhere I return to the goal laden Dutch 2nd division today, and 2 standout matches , one featuring a team who are over 2.5 goals in 100% of their matches, and the other featuring a team who have had a total of 16 goals in their last 3 matches.
The safer bet today? Well it must be Almere v Waalwijk over 1.5 goals over Pineapple Pete. Only 1.15 , it should oblige.
I am, though, very tempted to put up Pineapple pete and try a bigger priced horse to place . On our side is the fact he has a tongue tie on again , 2 2nd places over 5 furlongs in his last 2 runs over course and distance, same jockey on board. and one of only 2 under 20/1
*****ONE A DAY 230 LINGFIELD -Back Pineapple Pete to place only at 1.47*****
This is a risky bet today and I am trying to up the place only returns. This could easily go wrong as it is a 5 furlong maiden and there may be a dark horse. After all it is only 2 places so any errors will be punished.
I would strongly suggest that if you want a safer bet then over 1.5 goals in the Almere and Waalwijk matches would be worth a shot. I will take a chance on Pineapple and hope the race finishes with the 2 horses under 20/1 1st and 2nd in the race.
Sporting scored as the head to heads suggested.
Today, football wise, is the Dutch 2nd flight, and that usually signals 3 things, goals goals and goals.
It's just a matter of choosing the right match for the better over 2.5 goals as I did last Friday with Dordrecht and Emmen ( 0-0 I think at half time!! ended 2-2)
6pm - Besiktas v Bucaspor - 1.3 home - 5th v 2nd from bottom in this league match.
Only 1 recent head to head in 2010 was a 1-0 away win for Besiktas. This signals that Bucaspor are newcomers.
Besiktas have drawn against 16th and 18th at home ( Bucaspor are 17th) - trouble dispatching the strugglers at home?
WDDWD at home last 5 - makes the opponents look layable and hints maybe at a neutral goals bet as the draws were all score draws.
Besiktas have only managed to score 1 goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
Good news for Besiktas is Bucaspor's record away to the top 7. They have lost the lot, against 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th, and you can guess which team are 5th in the league? - Besiktas!!!
They have conceded 3,5,2,2 in their last 4 away matches.
7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - 2nd v 2nd from bottom and +21 goal difference plays -32 goals difference.
It's 50/50 for Almere at home as regards over 2.5 goals.
They have not played the top 4 at home yet but away the scorelines read 4-0, 5-0, 1-0, 2-4 ( 3 losses and a 4-2 win) - goals bar one match v Volendam
7/8 at home have been over 1.5 goals.Almere have conceded in 7/8 at home too.
2010 head to heads are 4-1 and 5-0 in favour of Waalwijk.
11 of last 12 for Almere have been over 1.5 goals.
78% of Waalwijk's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They have not played any of the bottom 4 away but at home have scored 5,3,5,2 against them.
5-0 v Almere last time out.
Have played 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 14th away and the scorelines are 1-3, 3-3, 2-1(loss), 2-4, 2-3
A team who score v a team who concede!
All matches this season played by Waalwijk have included these total goals ( latest last) 0,3,4,4,5,2,4,4,2,5,3,6,3,5,3,6,5,5
Over 4.5 goals in all of their last 3 most recent matches.
We can chance a goals bet surely? In fact, they look good for the win here.
7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - Fortuna Sittard have the unique distinction of 100% over 2.5 goals in all home and away matches. Slight concern that Dordrecht at home are around 56% but this Fortuna concede at will!.
In 7 of their 9 away matches, Fortuna have conceded at least 3. In the remaining 2, they conceded 2. It all rests I feel on Fortuna continuing this amazing 100% over 2.5 goals sequence.
7pm - Zwolle v AGOVV - 1.35 home - top v 14th of 18. Have already won 5-1 at Agovv. 2 thirds of their home matches are over 2.5 goals. The remaining matches were 2-0's
Concern with 2011 form for Zwolle - they are dropping points. Prior to the draw and loss in 2011, Zwolle were on a 9 match winning run. Too many mince pies in the break? They sufferred a 3-4 loss at home which suggests the home shooting boots are still working.
5 over 2.5 goals away matches for Agovv were ended last time by a 1-0 away loss.
They have had 3 1-0's against 4th, 5th and 10th which might spill over to the Zwolle match?
155 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Peace Corps, 7/4 City Stable, 3/1 Sheila´s Bond, 20/1 Lightening Force, 25/1 Dalrymple.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reliable SHEILA'S BOND has a bit to find at the weights with Peace Corps and City Stable but should run her race and that may prove decisive.[Adrian Cook]
Another seller alas but another good probability race. Should be 3 horses for 2 places.Peace Corps is the market favourite at evens.
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Morermaloke, 5/2 Pineapple Pete, 10/1 Fairy Tales, 14/1 Dangerous Illusion, 14/1 Stoneacre Joe Joe, 25/1 Pickled Pumpkin, 66/1 Tough Customer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden which ought to comfortably be within the reach of MORERMALOKE. A tongue-tie has revitalised Pineapple Pete the last twice and he looks the main danger.[Adrian Cook]
Like Kingscroft and Kristallino ( where the latter did not place - I noted the drop in trip and was a little concerned in such a poor grade) we have 2 horses under 20/1 here in Morermaloke and Pineapple Pete. Naturally the latter is the value call, but in a class 5, do we trust these maidens to run as the market suggests.
With only 2 places, we will be getting decent enough place only prices. More is now 2/7 with Pete at 7/2
605 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fettuccine, 100/30 Elusive Love, 5/1 Bint Susu, 8/1 Kentish, 16/1 Apple Dumpling, 16/1 Hesindamood, 25/1 Higher Spen Jess, 25/1 Stardust Dancer, 33/1 Cooke´s Bar, 50/1 Avon Light, 66/1 Bold Trumpeter.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FETTUCCINE is preferred in a race that won't take much winning, with Bint Susu the most interesting of the newcomers.[Graeme North]
Only 4 under 20/1 in this maiden although given the race time, I would rather determine a horse to place nearer the off as this is a maiden.
SHORTLIST
7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - 1.15 over 1.5 goals has a great chance of coming in if the poor minus goal difference for Almere versus the solid positive goal difference for Waalwijk translates on the pitch. 1.47 over 2.5 goals is worth a tradeable bet. Waalwijk's total goals in their matches surely will help both goals bets?7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - must be included from a goals perspective given all of Fortuna's matches have seen over 2.5 goals. 1.17 over 1.5 goals ( illiquid market) but chance 1.5 over 2.5 goals?
155 LINGFIELD - 3 horses should fight out 2 places but it is a seller and the favourite Peace Corps was very poor last twice. A horse 5th and 6th , now fav, shows you the quality ( or lack thereof) of this race.
230 LINGFIELD - Kristallino did not place yesterday ( and to be fair he was dropping in trip)- can we trust the market today? Will Morermaloke and Pineapple Pete dominate as the only 2 under 20/1 should?
1.11 to place for Morer and a better 1.47 for Pineapple.The next best to place is 5/1 .
Only 2 places - dare we chance the value selection Pineapple this time? Pineapple has finished 2nd last 2 races , both at Lingfield and both over 5 furlongs. He might be worth chancing today to place. No change in trip. It would seem that the tongue tie worn last twice is the key to the horse.
605 WOLVES- should involve 4 under 20/1 but it would be folly for me to make any decisions with 5 hours to go especially as this is a maiden.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Bucaspor - 1.3 home - based solely on Bucaspor's form away to top 7 ( or lack of form rather!!) , my concern is that Besiktas have only managed 1 goal in 3 of their last 4 home matches, and scoring only 1 leaves you very vulnerable. This newly promoted away side should find life difficult though.
7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - given the goal differences between the sides and Waalwijk's goal totals in pretty much all of their league matches ( 6,5,5 last 3 matches) we can hope this continues with over 1.5 goals at 1.15 today - over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is very tempting but would be approached with a trading angle
7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - sequences always end, but will this be the case for 100% over 2.5 goalers Fortuna today? Dordrecht's home over 2.5 goal record is just over 50%
230 LINGFIELD - this should involve the 2 horses under 20/1 - only 2 places so a slight risk but time here to chance the bigger priced of the 2 under 20/1 Pineapple Pete? After all, he has finished 2nd in his 2 2011 runs over course and distance and at 1.47 we are getting good place only odds as there are only 2 places.
5 furlongs means any tardiness will be punished. Chris Catlin retains the ride which is an additional positive. This would be a risky bet today as it is only 2 places but we may be catching Pineapple Pete while he is in a consistent mood.
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