illiquid market at present so wait for it to flesh out. We always run the risk of stable gambles in bumpers but the hope is Ericht shows the form that saw him clear of the remainder last time out and places at least.
150 Southwell is the best probability race of the day with better prices in the place market on offer. You need to choose 1 of the 3 and hope he is one of the 2 out of 3 who will place!
Times a wastin emptied out in the final furlongs but got 3rd for the place money.
210 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cucumber Run, 7/2 High Benefit, 8/1 Mr Jay Dee, 10/1 Thoresby, 12/1 This Masquerade, 14/1 Somewhatinevitable, 16/1 Pere Blanc, 16/1 Spiritual Guidance, 20/1 Automaticman, 33/1 Absolution, 33/1 Fairynuff, 50/1 Star King, 66/1 Medicine Man, 66/1 Sheepclose, 66/1 Tatispout, 100/1 South Stack.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CUCUMBER RUN is a natural starting point after his promising start at Newbury and he looks the one to beat. High Benefit looks his most dangerous rival. [Emily Weber]
Big guns on 1st and 2nd favourite. High Benefit a faller last time out - has that affected the Thornton/King runner? Only 2 under 11/1 in the betting at present.
340 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ericht, 7/1 In Vigo, 15/2 Johnny Owen, 8/1 Pearl Mountain, 20/1 Evans Wood, 20/1 Hopes Up, 20/1 Majorica King, 20/1 Marksman, 20/1 Military Precision, 20/1 Rebel Flag, 25/1 It´s A Killer, 25/1 Seventh Hussar, 25/1 Tango Master, 33/1 Raifteiri, 33/1 Stays All Night.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop in distance on an easier course may not be ideal but ERICHT's Ascot debut second reads well enough and he is likely to prove hard to beat. In Vigo may be best of the newcomers.[Frank Carter]
Yesterday's big price gapper in a bumper sluiced up with ease. Same for Ericht?Henderson/Geraghty fills me with confidence. This Irish jockey is superb.
THis price gap must be acknowledged as must the race type - I am sure you are sick of me repeating myself, but bumpers require market attention preferably nearer the off as the perennial dark horses could be lurking ( these races are ideal punting races)
Ericht has had the sole run - is that good enough assurance of a positive run here? - no obstacles to jump will help.
Johnny Owen is the one who has been nibbled at as I write.
150 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 So Is She, 9/2 Bernisdale, 5/1 Fred Willetts.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAKEAWAY is the one to beat on his Polytrack form, though he does have to prove he can handle this surface equally well now tackling it for the first time. So Is She looks his biggest danger after her maiden win here last time.[Emily Weber]
Great probability - 3 for 2 places but crap surface.
220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Jo Boy, 3/1 Volcanic Ash, 7/2 Ad Vitam, 9/2 Gordy Bee, 8/1 Thank You Joy, 16/1 Windsor Knights, 25/1 Willow´s Wish, 33/1 Bigalo´s Vera B.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston had a 35% strike-rate throughout January 2010 and early signs suggest this year could be similarly successful, so it might be worth favouring VOLCANIC ASH who remains open to improvement tackling Fibresand for the first time.[Stuart Redding]
A low grade maiden with the favourite a non runner, this should allow Volcanic Ash to be marginally competitive. A FAnning/Johnston horse is a great positive, but lack of experience on this unique fibresand surface is most offputting. 2 horses are 20/1 or bigger, so this should be a 5 horse race for 3 places.
350 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dontpaytheferryman, 4/1 Kingaroo, 5/1 Minortransgression, 5/1 Yossi, 8/1 Magic Haze, 16/1 Novestar, 16/1 Sirdave.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections have little option but to run DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN before his new mark kicks in but he should be hard to beat with Kingaroo and Novestar likely to set the strong pace that he enjoys.[Stuart Redding]
4/6 - - - 5/1 but only 2 places and apprentice ridden. The fav's hand has been forced somewhat which is a niggle.
1235 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Arabella Boy, 5/2 For The Staff, 8/1 Ballyvoile, 8/1 Otay Kawn, 16/1 Golden Alou, 20/1 A Thousand Men, 20/1 Paddy The Oscar, 20/1 Present Promise, 25/1 Roxboro Lodge, 33/1 Slippers Percy, 50/1 Cottage Cross, 50/1 Jolily, 50/1 Lunaburg, 50/1 Preswell Lad, 50/1 Shouson Hill Boy, 50/1 That Beats Banaher.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARABELLA BOY [NAP] makes most appeal to get off the mark over fences stepping up to this longer trip with stablemates For The Staff and Otay Kawn looking the obvious dangers. [Brian Fleming]
Big boys clash 1 and 2 and if this was a cross country chase I'd be all over the fav like a rash.
410 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shutterbug, 7/1 Juarla, 8/1 Place And Chips, 10/1 Go Maggie Go, 10/1 Mi Sun Donk, 10/1 Sea Of Love, 10/1 These Dreams, 12/1 Miss Toldyaso, 16/1 Ladydolly, 20/1 Hey Mambo, 20/1 Look´n´listen, 33/1 Renesmee.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for SHUTTERBUG to get off the mark, having contested a stronger race at the course last time. It would be no surprise were Place And Chips to post an improved effort returning from a break, while handicap debutante Sea Of Love is worth a market check.[Mark Brown]
Class 6 0-55 handicap price gapper ( and remember Rustic Deacon?) - Huge price gap but poor poor quality race. Trust the market?
440 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Madam Mayem, 9/2 Colamandis, 13/2 Libertino, 12/1 Gorgeous Goblin, 12/1 Inde Country, 14/1 Gower Sophia.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very weak maiden and a fine opportunity for MADAM MAYEM if she shows anything resembling last summer's decent turf form on this AW debut. Her pedigree strongly suggests 6f shouldn't be a problem and she really is very hard to get away from in this line-up. Colamandis may be next best.[Mel Cullinan]
All weather debut but smashed in this Madam Mavem now 4/11 - - - 8/1 - again trust the market for a predominantly turf horse who has not run since last summer.
610 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Jezza, 6/1 Treacle Tart, 13/2 Houston Dynimo, 17/2 Admirable Duque, 11/1 Blue Nymph, 12/1 Calculating.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may be between in-form pair JEZZA and Bivouac. The latter is much respected but fast-improving Jezza is likely to progress again and may be able to defy a further 8lb rise since completing a hat-trick here last time.[Mel Cullinan]
Another price gapper here 10/11 - - - 5/1 ( Houston)
2pm - Roma v Catania - 1.51 home - last 3 head to heads have been 1-1, 1-0 ( cup), 1-0 which does not augur well for Roma backers. 1-0 is such a precarious scoreline.
TO compound this, Roma's last 2 matches in December were 1-0 wins.
DDWWWWWW at home in the league for Roma so if they score they should win.
A back of 0-0 insurance and Roma here?
LDLLDLDL away for Catania makes them ideal lay fodder.
Against the top 8 away, we have 3 draws and a 3-1 loss , against 1st and 3rd, the scores were 1-1.
I suspect unders is a good tradeable bet today?
SHORTLIST
A poor day's racing for me today but is anything salvageable?
210 HUNTINGDON - I would rather have Cucumber Run over Hugh Benefit, largely because of the latter's fall last time out.
1.17 to place for the Cucumber. Barry Geraghty takes the ride for the horse's 2nd spin over hurdles.
Only 2 under 14/1 here.
340 HUNTINGDON - barry Geraghty again on Ericht here who is only 1 of 2 under 12/1 and one of 3 under 20/1
Probability wise, he should place - 8 are newcomers and there is good support for Johnny Owens who is a debutant and the obvious each way alternative at 4/1
Analysis of Ericht's debut
"He did his best to reel back the winner from 2f out and came nicely clear of the remainder, so should really prove hard to beat next time out."
150 SOUTHWELL - 3 horses and 2 places and what you do here is write the 3 horses' names , put them in a hat, and pick one out to place and you will have a 2/3rd chance of placing ! I cannot pick one out but So is she is fav to place on Betfair
220 SOUTHWELL - I love Johnston/Fanning combination rides at the head of the market, and this Volcanic Ash has been backed into 6/4
A major niggle is the lack of experience at Southwell which is unique amongst all weather surfaces.
This should be a 5 horse race for 3 places ( ignoring the 2 horses 25/1 or bigger) so we can make a probability argument but there would be no surprise were Volcanic to not take to the surface ( he wouldn't be the first to have a good chance on paper but run below par on this new surface)
1.26 to place is rather generous if we think he only needs to really beat 2 to place.
410 Wolves would have been interesting until I see 5 furlongs and 0-55 rated horses - I'll get me coat!!
440 Wolves - Madam Mayem is 2/5 to win and 1/5 to place which looks a good bet. Only 2 places though , all weather debut, and not run since August. Faith in the market and the huge price gap 2/5 - - - 7/1 - if having faith then 1.2 is interesting.
2pm - Roma v Catania - this all points to a tight match this afternoon, with 1-0's and 1-1's dominating recent form. This makes 1.15 under 4.5 goals somewhat appealing.
Catania also look very layable albeit at a far bigger price than we would like.
I would consider backing Roma too with a 0-0 cover as this could be tight for a concerted period.
0-0 at only 15.5 recounts that the market agrees with me
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
210 HUNTINGDON - Only Cucumber Run's 2nd run over hurdles but only 1 of 2 under 14/1 - a clear round should suffice under the superb Geraghty. 1.17 to place.
340 HUNTNGDON - Ericht has no obstacles in this bumper and what might swing it is the extremely confident analysis of his first run. I love seeing " nicely clear of the remainder" in previous races.
Only one of 2 under 12/1, the usual bumper argument re the market must be acknowledged. 1.18 to place - very illiquid.
150 SOUTHWELL - best probability race of the day. Stick a pin in and back the one of the 3 it lands on and you will have a 66% chance of successfully placing.
440 WOLVES - most eyecatching price gapper of the day and 1.2 to place is very appealing for a horse 2/5 to win. 2 places , a maiden, and a debutant on the all weather, not run since August are all mounting niggles. But do we have faith in the market that Madam Mayem is better than this lot despite reservations about making all weather debut?
2pm - Roma v Catania - 1.15 under 4.5 goals appeals. Catania's biggest loss has been 3-1 . I hope for a tight early encounter to allow trading though.
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