17/1

*****ONE A DAY - 230 FAKENHAM - Tullamore Dew to place only. If the market is not around 1.12 and liquid enough, consider Betfair SP***** Soft ground as advertised in the Racing Post. My concern is their accuracy with ground conditions as I would not bet in heavy. This is a race where 2 horse cannot really be split, 10/11 and 11/10 with a clear outsider.
A clear round should enable Tullamore Dew to place ( 121 last 3 chase races helps suggest consistent jumping)



Bloody typical! I pick Real when the inconsistent Real turn up! A crossbar away from a 94th minute winner from Ronaldo was just gutting to watch.
Enhanced trade for those interested in laying Almeria at 1-0 up ( 60th minute goal led to a lay rather than back of Real)


155 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Silicium, 5/1 Good Faloue, 7/1 Chicklemix, 10/1 Alonso De Guzman, 12/1 Camden, 14/1 Fairview Sue, 14/1 Ultimate Quest, 20/1 Agapanthus, 25/1 Chervonet, 25/1 Mr Valentino, 50/1 Frosty Spring, 100/1 Farmers Glory, 100/1 Kirkum.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Nicky Henderson's team on a high and boasting such a good record round here with hurdlers (54% strike-rate), it's easy to hold high hopes for Radium's half-brother SILICIUM. Good Faloue is the standout alternative.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Price gapper but no form and a maiden hurdle, and soft ground.

230 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mamlook, 11/8 Tullamore Dew, 8/1 Quo Video, 10/1 Maringo Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tullamore Dew has the advantage of chasing experience but it looks a big ask conceding two penalties to MAMLOOK, who was always an accurate jumper of his hurdles and is regarded by David Pipe as one of his top prospects for novice chases.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 2 under 14/1 in the betting, one with a 205 day absence and the other a 15 day absence. Both novices at chase fences.

300 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lady Hight, 13/8 Mr Jay Dee, 4/1 All For Free, 20/1 The Old Buccaneer, 25/1 Float My Boat, 25/1 Meridiem, 100/1 Onthelips.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Conditions are a bit of a grey area for Mr Jay Dee so this could be another for Nicky Henderson, who has won four of the last five renewals of this race and saddles a likely improver in the shape of LADY HIGHT.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 25/1 should fight out the places, but which of the 3 will not place ( 2 places as 7 runners) - they're not making it easy today - another bunch of novice hurdlers.

Heavy at Plumpton, no thanks.

220 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Avon River, 11/8 Samarinda, 10/1 Ilie Nastase, 16/1 Desert Dreamer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to resolve itself into a duel between AVON RIVER and Samarinda, with the top weight expected to make his first appearance at this level a winning one.[Adrian Cook]

Can we trust the betting? If so this should be a 2 horse race for 2 places

350 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Art History, 5/2 Maher, 3/1 Rojo Boy, 12/1 Cadgers Brig, 12/1 Ocean´s Dream Day, 14/1 Full Bloom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Maher and Rojo Boy have the ability to win an AW maiden but ART HISTORY can improve past the pair of them following his encouraging Kempton debut.[Adrian Cook]

Johnston/fanning on Art History of interest in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places. Interesting that Greg Fairley takes the ride on the Johnston horse in the previous race, and the top dog Fanning takes the ride in this race. A tip in itself?

430pm - Egypt v Uganda - 1.3 home - Egypt have been similarly priced in their last 2 matches and won 3-0 and 5-1. I think this match, like the others, is being played in Egypt.

Head to heads as tight as they were against Kenya. Uganda's last 3 matches have been tight in 2011 and include a 93rd minute winner by Egypt.

Back Egypt with a 0-0 saver therefore?

Uganda's last 4 aways have been 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, hence the 0-0 cover bet? 16.5 for 0-0 correct score and an illiquid market.

645pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Acre - 1.29 home - Hapoel have won their last 5 matches in the league so are in solid form.They have only lost one match in their last 12 in all competitions.5,1,4,5,2 the goals scored by Hapoel in their last 5 matches. LWWDLWW at home for Hapoel in recent matches.

Acre are in decent enough form, having won 3 of their last 4. Matches in head to heads with Tel Aviv have seen 8 and 4 goals in the 2 2010 matches.

Acre have only won 2 of their last 12 away matches in all competitions so are perhaps vulnerable away.

Over 1.5 goals is 1.15 but , as you might expect with Israeli football, the markets are not very liquid.

7pm - Emmen v Dordrecht - goals normally in Dutch 2nd division and at home it's 86% for Emmen's matches finishing over 2.5 goals and 88% of Dordrecht's matches away finish over 2.5 goals. 1.2 over 1.5 goals looks a great price given the high 80's percentage over 2.5 goals matches between these 2 at home and away.

SHORTLIST

155 FAKENHAM - Silicium is a newcomer so we are betting in faith. Good Faloue looks the value alternative here in a race which features only 3 under 14/1

230 FAKENHAM - this now becomes a 3 horse race for 2 places -Mamlook and Tullamore Dew face a 16/1 shot . The front 2 cannot be split and, in this novice chase, a clear round should ensure both of these 2 finish 1st and 2nd. Tullamore Dew is 121 over chase fences the last 3 races so can hardly be considered a novice?

300 FAKENHAM - should be a 3 horse race for 2 places but question marks regarding soft ground for each of the horses. We get some decent place only prices if you want a probability bet.

220 WOLVES - a claimer and Avon River at 1.27 to place is the most fancied in the place only market. 4 horses and 2 places

350 WOLVES - should be a 3 horse race for 2 places and Art History's jockey and trainer combo stand out. Art History has only had the one run where he ran green but analysis of the race is encouraging "the type that could improve substantially next time." Around 1.57 to place - a big price indicating a competitive maiden and a market that has yet to make up its mind.

430pm - Egypt v Uganda - 1.3 home - Egypt, similarly priced in their last 2 matches, have won emphatically scoring 3 and 5. They face a Uganda side they have already played in 2011 and won with a 93rd minute winner - hardly compelling evidence to back at 1.3. But this match is taking place in Egypt, and there was a similarly less compelling argument to back versus Kenya, and Egypt scored 3.

This is the Final of the Nile Basin Tournament and I suspect there will be few goals. No liquidity in the markets is a real pity as I would have liked under 3.5 goals.

7pm - Emmen v Dordrecht - an 87% average home ( Emmen) and away ( Dordrecht) matches have finished over 2.5 goals. Logic therefore dictates that over 1.5 goals should have a great chance of coming in if these form trends continue?
Around 1.19 for over 1.5 goals.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

155 FAKENHAM - Good Faloue would be a great value place alternative were it not for his fall last time out. It may uncover hidden jumping concerns. As an alternative to the debutant favourite, if he runs to his rating, and has a clear round, he should be bang in there. 1.42 to place and backed in the win only market against the favourite.

230 FAKENHAM - a superb probability race where we have 3 horses priced at 10/11, 11/10 and 25/1 . Tullamore Dew would perhaps be my choice here to place as he is 121 over chase fences in his last 3 races. This shows he can jump chase fences with some consistency and while he may not beat Mamlook, he would be booked for 2nd with a clear round.Around 1.12 to place. It may be worth taking Betfair SP in the place market if the market does not become more liquid.

7pm - Emmen v Dordrecht - a mighty 87% average between these 2 for matches over 2.5 goals.
All 7 of Emmen's home matches have been over 1.5 goals. ( 6/7 were over 2.5 goals)
All 17 of Emmen's matches this season have been over 1.5 goals ( 13 were over 2.5 goals, 9 over 3.5 goals, 4 over 4.5 goals)
As to Dordrecht, 13 of their 17 matches this year have been over 1.5 goals. Their last 5 matches have seen 4,4,6,2,3 goals.
7 matches away out of 8 have been over 1.5 goals, ( 7 on the trot) , and 7 of those away matches were over 2.5 goals. 3,1,3,1,5,2 the goals scored in head to heads. A slight worry as the last match saw a 93rd minute equaliser to make it 1-1.
This may preclude this from being a one a day bet.

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