back-lay-trade-horses-football: 25/1

*****ONE A DAY - 730pm - Blackpool v Man Utd - back over 1.5 goals at 1.2*****
Both teams are in good goalscoring form and home team keep conceding at home and keep scoring at home.

Although Tigre D'aron and Alfie Sherrin won yesterday, there was all sorts of niggles. French Hollow unplaced as multiple winning handicappers tend to falter with greater weight. Even Fortuna Sittard ended their over 2.5 goal sequence because they were playing an equally poor team.

7pm - Waalwijk v Noordwijk - 1.15 home - Juliper League v Hoofdclasse. Big gulf in class . Only 3 losses in last 12 for home team, one was a friendly, and 2 were close ( 3-2 and 2-1)
Hoofdklasse is " the 2nd highest league of amateur football in the Netherlands, and the fourth tier in general." ( wikipaedia)
There seems to be a gulf in class here which I like for Cup matches.

730pm -Blackpool v Man Utd - 1.37 away -Premier league match and www.soccerstats.com ( my right arm) is down which hinders my research somewhat.
From www.betdevil.com

Home team Blackpool have a home record of 3-2-4 (W-D-L) for their 9 home games this season, 11 points from a possible 27. That's a home points average of 1.22 compared to 1.27 for all games this season. Blackpool's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from 6 games 2-0-4 (W-D-L) Blackpool's last 10 league games record reads DWDWWLLWLL (WDWWLLLWLL) while their last 10 home league games read WDLLWDWLWL (WDLLWDWLWL).

Away team Man Utd have an away record of 2-8-0 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season, 14 points from a possible 30. That's an away points average of 1.40 compared to 2.18 for all games this season. Man Utd's recent points average is 2.33, 14 points from games; Man Utd's last 10 league games record reads DWWWWDWWDW (LDWWDWWWDW) while their last 10 away league games read DDDDWDDDWD (DWWDDWLDWD).

We see the United problems away - 8 draws. Still they remain the only undefeated side in the Premiership.

Using www.soccerway.com, I note Blackpool are DWLWL at home last 5 matches. All over 2.5 goals as you would expect.

DDDWD away for United last 5.Interestingly the win was against another promoted side West Brom.

Last head to head match was 1971.

I suspect that a goals bet will have a great chance of coming good. The 1.37 for United looks big considering the opposition United should lead at some stage.

I would not be surprised with a few late goals today as well as, like a number of promoted sides, Blackpool concede a huge number in the last 15 minutes ( they should be drinking Lucozade if you believe Stevie G)

745pm - Arsenal v Ipswich - 1.13 home. This is great. A good team playing at home and they must win against inferior opposition.

Slight concern when evaluating teams with new management as these can see unexpected "honeymoon period" results. This should be Arsenal all day. The only question is whether we enhance the odds with halftime/fulltime Arsenal /Arsenal or over 2.5 goals.

Many moons ago I flagged up a certain Dolgopolov and told you to watch out for him ( this was after seeing him v Nadal in Monte Carlo) - well he faces Andy Murray this evening and I can see him causing Andy some problems before eventually succumbing. This makes the 1.13 for Murray layable. Dolgopolov is exciting.

110 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tornado Bob, 5/1 Glitzy D´ocala, 8/1 Lord Liath, 20/1 Group Leader, 33/1 Tippering, 50/1 Kauto Cyreo, 50/1 Lucky Sunny, 80/1 The Hon Tara.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is an above-average heat but it's hard to oppose CHAMPION COURT (nap), who looked a horse going places at Cheltenham in November. Tornado Bob and hurdling debutant Glitzy D'Ocala will be no pushovers, though. [Dave Orton]

Only 3 under 20/1 should dominate here if the soft(heavy in places) ground does not make this race a leveller. 1.13 Tornado Bob to place

McCain/Maguire's Tornado Bob could be the one.

140 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Invictus, 11/4 Extremely So, 6/1 Areuwitmenow, 11/1 Baan, 14/1 Empire Builder, 33/1 Bloodyburn Bay, 40/1 Crafti Bookie, 50/1 Highland Legacy, 80/1 Lucius Fabeo, 100/1 Just Unique, 100/1 Sunday Sharpner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: By far the weaker of the two divisions. The well-regarded INVICTUS is taken to open his account for connections at the expense of the penalised Extremely So. [Dave Orton]

2 under 12/1 and Invictus represents King/Thornton

240 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Risaala, 2/1 Lifestyle, 4/1 Alexander Road, 16/1 Lilac Belle, 20/1 Alfie´s Pearl, 25/1 Qualitee, 33/1 Francesa, 40/1 Golbelini, 50/1 Argentia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Risaala looked progressive when off the mark latest, but market support for old rival LIFESTYLE on her hurdling bow would be ominous and she gets narrow preference in receipt on 6lb. [Dave Orton]

Lots of races at Leicester today with top heavy markets. Here we have 3 under 20/1 and Risaala has the requisite experience while Lifestyle comes from King Midas Henderson and has Geraghty onboard but making hurdling bow today

100 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Charminster, 9/2 Tiptoeaway, 5/1 Quelle Chance, 10/1 Arrow Barrow, 16/1 Middlebrook, 33/1 Shan Blue, 50/1 Serafini, 66/1 A Patchy Dancer, 66/1 Velvet Vic, 100/1 Rats, 100/1 Stitched Up, 200/1 Another Mystery.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Donald McCain, who saddled the winner of this race a year ago and landed both divisions in 2009, can maintain his stranglehold with CHARMINSTER (nap). Tiptoeaway will appeal as an each-way alternative if the odds allow.[Frank Carter]

Now 3/10 and trainer targets this race.

SHORTLIST

7pm - Waalwijk v Noordwijk - 1.15 home - -1.28 over 2.5 goals albeit a hugely illiquid market. A division 2 side ( Juliper league) against weaker opponents should signal goals. This is in running