There are 3 probability races if you fancy your luck - 2 though are on testing ground.
Easy for India. I hope you got the message in time. My inbox received it at 13.07.
2pm - Omonia v Atromitos Yeroskipou - 1.08 home - although not as short as South Korea yesterday, there is normally a relationship between short odds and goals in football. Division 1 v Division 2 in the Cup and the market expects a replication of the 2009 5-0 scoreline. Omonia have won 10 and drawn 2 of their last 12 matches so i hope will want this unbeaten run to continue. 1.4 for over 2.5 goals is very generous for a match featuring a 1.08 shot.
3pm - Botswana v Sweden - 1.71 away - looks high for Sweden this price. I am presuming that the big guns are not playing ( Ibrahimovich would have Botswana for breakfast!)
545pm - Twente v Heracles - 1.29 home - back to top flight dutch football tonight and Twente, PSV and Ajax are set to dominate again.
4 points behind and one match in hand , Twente really need to win. 5/6 wins in head to heads, including 2-1, 2-1, 2-0 at home. Last match was a 0-0 draw.
3 losses in last 5 prior to the Christmas Break was a sudden loss of form for Twente. Will this continue into this new year? I normally do not backing teams after a break of some kind as they may be vulnerable.
These 3 losses were the only ones all season and all occured in a small space of time.
DWDWWWLW at home is consistent enough.0,4,2,4,3,2,1,2 scored by Twente at home.
75% home matches over 2.5 goals.
8 losses and a draw away for Heracles.Have conceded 5,4,3,2,3 away to top 8 sides. Augurs well for Twente.
6pm - Lille v Nancy - 1.43 home - French top flight so of interest .3,4,3 scored by Lille in 2009 and 2010 head to heads against Nancy. They seem, recently, to have one over this team.4-0 and 3-1 in last 2 head to heads.
The top 4 are separated by a point but importantly Lille have a game in hand, and in such a tight head of the league, they must win their home matches when expected to do so. Having scored 7 in their last 2 against Nancy, I must admit I was expecting a shorter price.
5 wins, 3 draws and a loss at home would not immediately strike you as top of the table home form.
Undefeated in 9 ( 6 wins and 3 draws), and WWWD at home last 4 matches for Lille.
Nancy have not played the top 4 away yet but against 5th and 6th , we saw 2 1-0 losses.
They have lost 3 of 4 matches they have played against top 6 at home.
WDWDLWLDL away form Nancy.Have not won away in last 3, infact 2 losses and a draw. Hopefully Lille backers are meeting Nancy at the right time.
In their last 6 matches, Nancy have conceded first which may be a trading angle in .
Nancy have conceded in all away matches.
715pm - Benfica v Olhanense - 1.24 home - won 5-0 against this lot in another Cup match on 12th January - too much familiarity to expect another similar scoreline? Wounded animal syndrome?
745pm - Ajax v Feyenoord - 1.32 home - 4th v 13th - and I would have expected Feyenoord to be a lot closer. LDD at home last 3 most un Ajax like. Concern that there has been a change of management which may show itself in new tactics etc in this new year.
6 losses and 3 draws ( all against bottom 6) away for Feyenoord signals why they are 13th.
Ajax have won 5/6 head to heads.
745pm - Inter v Cesena - 1.24 home - 6 wins on the trot, 4 in the league since the Fat Spanish Waiter left. It looks like confidence is restored at Inter. Winning their 2 games in hand will put them 2nd. Inter have won their last 3 home matches scoring 5,3,4 and look good betting propositions currently if this continues.
Last 6 Inter matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Cesena are 17th and Inter have beaten 16th and 20th by 4 goals at home. Chance for a replication today given their goalscoring feats in their last 3.
Apart from a draw v Roma away, Cesena have suffered 5 losses. A win and a draw v bottom and 2nd bottom.
They look like a dour Italian defensive unit.9 of 19 matches have been 0-0 or 1-0.
3 of last 4 matches have had 2 1-0's and a 0-0.
LLLLLDW away for Cesena. Do not be alarmed - DW was against the aforementioned bottom 2.
845pm - Porto v Beira-Mar - 1.25 home - a wonderful opportunity last time to back Porto ( 1.08) at evens playing at home ! They have taken time scoring in their last 2 matches, so I suspect this 1.25 will be bigger price in running. 3-0, 5-0, 3-0 in the league. This is the league cup and Porto showed a distinct lack of interest in their last league match at home. This makes the 1.25 initially layable for a trade, then backable later if the match remains 0-0.
They clearly can beat Beira easily if they wanted to.
9pm - Betis v Barcelona - 1.47 away - beware of games sides do not need to win. 5-0 up from the first leg and wholesale changes for Barca tonight should make for a closer match and even their 2nd or 3rd team would give many premiership outfits a game. Best left alone I am afraid. Be worth watching the next generation tonight. If Pedro gets a game, I would back him to score.
2359 - Sao Paulo v Sao Bernardo - 1.34 home - I do not know enough about this match but wanted to have a look because of home price.
600 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Carter, 8/1 Our Kes, 8/1 Suhailah, 10/1 Crazy Bold, 10/1 Galiotto, 16/1 Acropolis, 16/1 Rosy Dawn, 20/1 Etoile Filante, 20/1 Little Meadow, 25/1 Jakeys Girl, 33/1 Colonel Henry, 33/1 Pictures, 33/1 Primera Rossa, 33/1 Wrecking Crew.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AW winners reappearing under a penalty this year have a near 50% strike-rate and CARTER (nap) won well enough last time to think he can bolster that tally. Crazy Bold is interesting on his Flat form from last winter but two recent runs over hurdles just diminish confidence a bit.[Graeme North]
What have we here? Another price gapper in a low grade handicap - this time a class 7 0-50 handicap ( next stop Blackpool Pleasure Beach)
Price gap 11/10 - - - - 6/1 in the live market and these types do tend to run well. 2 more runners and we would have had 4 places and a solid looking placer. 1.3
1250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Materialism, 2/1 Baharat, 100/30 Ana Emarati, 11/1 Imperial Fong, 12/1 Little Jazz, 16/1 Twilight Express, 40/1 Bedibyes, 50/1 Five Cool Kats.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MATERIALISM showed enough when third on his debut at Wolverhampton in September to suggest he is the one to beat, though Jeremy Noseda's newcomer Baharat wouldn't need to be a world beater to make a winning start and is worth close attention in the betting. With a better draw and with the benefit of previous experience, Materialism is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]
Only 4 under 33/1 makes this maiden a great probability race with Baharat really short now at 1/2
305 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Camps Bay, 5/2 Dansilver, 7/2 Rock ´n´ Roller, 25/1 Peintre Du Roi, 33/1 Henry Holmes.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAMPS BAY has lost out in photo-finishes in his last two runs and wouldn't be one to go overboard about but he does have very strong form claims on his recent efforts and may well be able to win without needing to be fully pressured. Dansilver can chase him home. [Mel Cullinan]
3 horses and 2 places.
130 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Finian´s Rainbow, 8/1 Tail Of The Bank, 9/1 Babysitter.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Barring accidents, this should be straightforward for FINIAN'S RAINBOW who promises to go a long way in this sphere. Tail Of The Bank may prove second best.[Frank Carter]
Soft, heavy in places. 3 horses and 2 places. Which will finish 2nd?
240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sway, 11/8 Kerada, 5/1 Asturienne, 100/1 Fillyofthevalley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Testing conditions, a small field - three of the runners are having their first run over fences - and they are likely to take things steadily. SWAY has the advantage of experience and would be conceding more weight if this were a handicap over hurdles. Kerada is the obvious danger.[Frank Carter]
3 horses for 2 places - another probability race but poor ground.
SHORTLIST
2pm - Omonia v Atromitos Yeroskipou - 1.08 home - 1.4 over 2.5 goals is appealing but an illiquid market.545pm - Twente v Heracles - 1.29 home -must win 5/6 in head to heads - away side not won away. Coming back from break though which saw poor form -3 losses in 5 matches.
6pm - Lille v Nancy - 1.43 home - looks like a Lille side which ticks all the boxes against a Nancy team which ticks all the boxes ( conceded 3,4,3 to Lille, conceded in all away matches)
745pm - Inter v Cesena - 1.24 home -Inter a new team after the Midas-Touch-in-reverse- of the Fat Spanish One. They look backable again now and are full of goals at home. 1.23 over 1.5 goals and 1.47 over 2.5 goals.
845pm - Porto v Beira-Mar - 1.25 home - should eventually win but I would contemplate covering 0-0.
600 KEMPTON - horses like Carter tend to place. 1.3 to place quite high but tells us this is 0-50 rated horses!
1250 LINGFIELD - chance to speculate on one or 2 of the bigger priced horses ( Ana Emerati and Imperial Fong) but Baharat is 1.11 to place and Materialism 1.16 to place and should have a good chance of places. All the money for baharat today.
305 LINGFIELD - 3 horses should fight out the 2 places - Camps Bay is the market favourite in the place market at 1.2
130 NEWBURY - testing ground - 1.16 to win and 1.09 to place for Finians Rainbow.
240 NEWBURY - another probability race but testing ground.Kerada and Sway are 1.3 to place in a race which should be 3 horses and 2 places.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Lille v Nancy - 1.43 home - I would back Lille and trade out if they score first or lead at any stage.
745pm - Inter v Cesena - 1.24 home - or 1.25 over 1.5 goals which includes both sides. Look like they are returning to their best.
1250 LINGFIELD - Baharat backed into 1/2
The last 2 are on testing ground.
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