Sunday, 30 January 2011

30/1

Arsenal chosen as one a day earlier and lead 1-0 at time of writing.
Multiple was a success yesterday - another possible today incorporates all lays so the draws are covered in all matches. A couple of Cup matches make it a slight risk.

6 Selections Chosen
1Twente v Feyenoord (Laying Feyenoord @ 16.45)
2Notts Co v Man City (Laying Notts Co @ 10.73)
3Rangers v Motherwell (Laying Motherwell @ 12.09)
4Osasuna v Real Madrid (Laying Osasuna @ 10.73)
5Aves v Benfica (Laying Aves @ 10.14)
6Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ (Laying Cabofriense @ 15.57)

6-Folds
SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1,2,3,4,5 and 61.67€100.00€67.00
*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info
Total stake: €100.00
Your total potential win: €67.00

Submit your bet(s) now?
Horse racing wise, Super Frank was original favourite in an 8 runner race, and retains favouritism in a 6 horse race for still 3 places in the 315 Kempton and may be worth the risk. He must have been original fav for a reason?

Standout stats today? Well Benfica have not had a draw in their last 37 matches in all competitions. Will this continue this evening? Rangers have beaten Motherwell 4-1 home and away in this year's league so the 1.4 is very tempting, and tradeable if Rangers score first or lead at any stage.

With the Cup matches today, look out for enhanced trading ( e.g. back Man Utd 1-0 down at Southampton yesterday) - I could see Notts county scoring and then Man City equalising for instance. Or watch Alves incase they score first against Benfica.



Barca were never going to be beaten again, and made sure of it with a late flurry from the Messi-ah.
Pana were the better priced of the football teams and I wish I had faith in the head to heads as they won again. United were another excellent enhanced bet after going 1-0 down ( much like the Blackpool match) - they became very backable and delivered almost inevitably.

155 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 1/10 Line Freedom, 8/1 Farewellatmidnight, 14/1 Colleens Pride, 33/1 Mater Mater, 66/1 Ericaceous.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be nothing more than a stroll for LINE FREEDOM, with Farewellatmidnight possibly leading the chase.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Interesting start. Looks like Farewell and Colleen are the 2 to focus on for the better paying 2nd place market.

325 FAKENHAM


BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Caught By Witness, 100/30 Uncle Keef, 6/1 Alonso De Guzman, 8/1 Sunny Spells, 14/1 Get Ready To Go, 20/1 Maccool, 25/1 Salut Honore, 66/1 Humbel Times, 100/1 Patrick Dee, 200/1 Flag Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAUGHT BY WITNESS brings respectable handicap form into a weak maiden and there's no great temptation to take him on. Alonso De Guzman is a possible alternative, with his Market Rasen run no reflection of his true ability.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 5 under 25/1 should make it a little easier for Caught to be placed

135 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cucumber Run, 6/1 Easter Meteor, 7/1 Dovecote Wood, 8/1 There And Then, 10/1 Generous Bob, 10/1 Stolen Thunder, 25/1 Bennys Mist, 25/1 Ledbury Star, 25/1 Mr Windmill, 33/1 Mudita Moment, 33/1 Radmores Oscar, 40/1 Bridge Street Boy, 50/1 Solo Roma, 66/1 Just Richie, 100/1 Rich Live, 100/1 Roman Landing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak race and, despite reservations over the longer trip, CUCUMBER RUN should defy the penalty. Easter Meteor will be the danger if bouncing back from a poor last-time-out effort, while Generous Bob appeals most of the remainder. [Mark Brown]

Only 3 horses under 25/1 here should be considered for the places.

Easter and Dovecote are the 2 against the obvious favourite.

315 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Super Frank, 11/2 Vhujon, 6/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Desert Strike, 16/1 Lord Of The Reins, 25/1 Mind The Monarch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Vhujon and Super Frank are more reliable than most and should give their running but ELHAMRI comes here in good form and is the one to beat.[Graham Wheldon]

8 runners now down to 6 and still 3 places? Original fav remains in those 6 runners.

150 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Big Zeb, 3/1 Golden Silver, 7/2 Sizing Europe, 20/1 Scotsirish, 200/1 Changing Course.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BIG ZEB has done nothing wrong this season since landing the Queen Mother Champion Chase last March and Colm Murphy's runner gets the vote over Golden Silver and last season's Arkle Chase hero Sizing Europe. [Brian Fleming]

Should be 3 horses for 2 places and no immediate reason to desert Big Zeb

12pm - Arsenal v Huddersfield - 1.14 home - should be a simple job for the Arse with a good team out. 1.14 signals goals

130pm - Twente v Feyenoord - 1.28 home - a win takes them a point behind a very lucky PSV yesterday beating 9 man Willem II with nearly the last kick of the match. Feyenoord used to be one of the contenders but no so this season with a poor 15th place. Generally tight head to heads 1-0 ( Fey home win), 1-1 , 2-1 ( Fey home win Cup) , 2-0 ( Twente home win) , 0-1 ( Twente away win)

Yes, Twente have won last 2 head to heads in the league but historically feyenoord look like they can put up a fight.

LLWWLWW for Twente in their last 7 matches and those 3 losses were the only losses of this current campaign.

Twente have only lost one home match, v a resurgent AZ Alkmaar so no disgrace in that. Against teams in Feyenoord's part of the league, there have been 3 home wins.

78% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals.No draw in 13 matches for Twente is another standout stat.

Feyenoord have not won away and have lost 4 out of 5 away matches against the top 5. Indeed the only time they get any points ( draws) is against bottom 5sides.

They have conceded 10,2,2,2 in those 4 matches against top 5 away, an element of consistency which might back up the 1.3 quote for Twente.

Lost 2-0 v Ajax recently away and this should be within Twente's grasp.

We have to weigh up poor away form as against reasonable head to heads against Twente.


2pm - Notts Co v Man City - 1.41 away - is the romance of the Cup all but dead now we have squillionaires in the Premiership ensuring the gulf in class is much more marked?

Great result against Sunderland last round for Notts County and home advantage will have them brimming with confidence.County have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 matches - slight goal drought? Surely if they cannot score in their league recently, they're going to be short changed by a top quality England goalie and his lackies ahead of him?

County don't do draws at home - none in their last 12 matches. 4 match winning run ended with a 1 -0 league loss at home last time out.

8 match unbeaten away run ended at Villa last time out for City, and that was only 1-0.

Simply with these matches, you take an opinion - romance of the Cup or realism that the Sheikh's squillions should ensure victory.


3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.4 home - Scottish League Cup, home advantage, and like Panathanaikos yesterday, a team who have scored 3,4,4 in last 3 head to heads . Only 3 wins in their last 12 for Motherwell in all compeitions signals it is more likely to be a home win or draw than an away win.

4-1 in 2 matches this season home and away in the league v Motherwell is wholly convincing for a Rangers side who have only lost twice at home in the league - the rest wins and no draws.

Lay the Draw?

Motherwell have beaten 3rd, 4th and 5th away in the league, but have succumbed to the Big 2.


4pm - Eibar v Zamora - 1.33 home - Spanish 3rd flight and no real reason Eibar are so short

6pm - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.41 - just when I thought Real were becoming real consistent betting propositions, they fecked up against Almeria and all but wrapped up the La Liga title in a lovely purple and red bow for Barca.

The Special One's insistence on playing Kaka, who really is Kaka, is bewildering. Others misfiring include Benzema who really could not hit a Spanish cow's arse with a Spanish Banjo. Barca are the boys for me I think. Consistently winning and scoring 3 or more each match!! And no, I'm not bitter because Real cost me a one a day!

2-1 ( Osas home win) , Osas at home 0-0 , 3-2 real Home win, 1-0 Real Home win not that convincing in head to heads.

Osasuna are 17th and against 18th and 19th away from home, Real have drawn 0-0 and 1-1. Coincidence or just a frustration from the struggling sides?

Real have only failed to score in 3 matches this season and have scored in each of their last 7.WWWLWWD in last 7 away for Real Madrid. Loss to Barca and draw with 19th placed Almeria.

Osasuna have only played Barca of the top 10 at home which makes it difficult to see how they cope at home against better sides. Apart from Barca 3-0 loss at home, Osasuna are unbeaten at home.

No win in 8 matches though for Osasuna signals a draw at best against 2nd placed Real.

615 - Aves v Benfica - 1.45 away - 9 wins on the trot for Benfica, and 11 wins in last 12 matches - last draw for Benfica came 37 matches ago!!! They either win or lose ( logically!!) Aves are lower league opposition - Aves have scored 2,3,2,2 in their last 4 home matches.

LAy the draw is the standout stat for Benfica but goals also a consideration ( remember Porto away to Gil Vicente yesterday only managed a 2-2 draw in the Cup)

7pm - Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ - 1.3 away - worth investigating when a team is so short away from home - away side unbeaten in last 12 and have won their last 6 matches.

Home side have lost 8 and won 2 - those 2 wins in 2009 and home side look to be promoted to this league? 3 2011 RJ league matches have all seen defeats for CAbofriense 3-0, 5-0, 2-0.

1-0, 6-2, 3-1 for Fluminense in 2011 signals why they are short priced favs.

SHORTLIST

155 FAKENHAM - 1.06 to place and 1.1 to win for Line Freedom. Look to 2nd place for a superb payout. It will be between Farewell and Colleens.

325 FAKENHAM - the place only market is unanimous that Caught by witness will place - 1.14 to place

135 HEREFORD - I would look to Easter Meteor or Dovecote wood here to place instead of Cucumber run, for a far better payout in the place only market. Faith that the market is accurate.

315 KEMPTON - still 3 places, 6 horses and original favourite Super Frank maintains favouritsim, making his 1.2 interesting in the place only market. A 50/50 race here. 3 will place and 3 will not.

130pm - Twente v Feyenoord - 1.28 home - not sure if I can trust the win only on Twente given some head to heads. but Feyenoor have lost to all the top 5 away from home. Twente need the win to keep the pressure on PSV.
If there was some value way to lay Feyenoord, I would. Laying the draw to trade is a consideration. No draw in 13 for Twente.

2pm - Notts Co v Man City - 1.41 away - team news will determine confidence here but surely this is too much of a gulf in class for Notts County.
3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.4 home - league cup but is it any coincidence that Rangers have beaten Motherwell home and away in the league by the same scoreline - 4-1?

615 - Aves v Benfica - 1.45 away - no draw in 37 matches - make of that what you will!! Benfica are obviously the form team , but the same could be argued as regards Porto yesterday and they only drew.

7pm - Cabofriense v Fluminense RJ - 1.3 away - this looks a case of out-of-depth promoted home side v rock solid away side. Goals an interesting neutral bet if your Brazilian football knowledge is as weak as mine.







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