back-lay-trade-horses-football: 23/1

Another slight risk this afternoon as PSV's recent away form has been poor but there are only 3 points between top 3 in the league. With Ajax losing, PSV know they are playing a team who have lost to all the top 7 at home.

*****ONE A DAY - 130pm - VVV V PSV - Back PSV in the match odds market at 1.3*****
REmember that this match is in running so if there is a surprise 2-0 early lead for PSV ( like Inter v Cesena) trade out

Plenty of goals for Bayern. Nice to see the acca come in, although it did look strong.

130pm - Roda JC v Excelsior - 1.4 home - 6 v 16th - last 4 head to heads were overs. Excelsior are promoted so only one recent head to head 2010 - 2-1 to Roda.
6 draws and 3 wins at home for Roda do not make them solid backing material.
DWDDDWD at home last 7
Excelsior away though have lost 7 and drawn 2 ( both score draws) so goals a good bet today?

130pm - VVV v PSV - 1.28 away - return of one of the triumvirate.
2nd from bottom v top.PSV have played 4 matches ( 2 at home and 2 away) v bottom 4 and won them all. DLD last 3 away matches for PSV of some concern but the teams were higher in the league than VVV
Beat VVV 3-0 at home.
VVV have played 6 of the top 7 at home and lost all 6 ( playing the 7th today)
2 wins at home came against 12th and 13th. Bridge too far v the top teams.
This should end PSV's sticky away patch.

145pm - Vaulx en Velin v Rennes - 1.23 away - this must be an away win if Ligue 1 3rd place take this seriously. A 5 match trot of 1-0 and 0-0 matches for Rennes ended with a 7-0 home cup win v Cannes and a 4-0 home win v Arles( one a day bet) - so they have the goal scoring groove coming into this away match.

4pm - Agen v Paris St-G - 1.4 away - more french cup mismatches:? 2nd in league away to Agen
8 of Paris's last 12 away matches have been draws so trading, if poss, is ideal here.

430pm - Brazil U20 v Bolivia U20 - 1.16 indicates goals. 2-1 and 3-0 in head to heads.
Brazil have started 2011 well with 2 wins and 7 goals in 2 games.
Bolivia have lost their last 5, but note last 2 were only 1-0 losses.
9 losses, 2 wins and a draw in their last 12. We can see that a loss is expected.

430pm - Lille v Wasquehal - 1.15 - more French Cup - top of the league Lille are at home and should do the business against who?

6pm - Real Madrid v Mallorca - 1.18 home - Real do not lose in the league under the Special one AT HOME right? So we have 2 choices, a home win or a draw. Simples!
Went tits up last week and pretty much handed the title to Barca. Backed Real last week and that 93rd minute Ronaldo crossbar free kick was a sickener.
9 wins out of 9 at home, and away v Mallorca was 0-0 but to be honest that was not unexpected given Mallorca are a different proposition at home.
1-1 draw away at Barca and 2-1 win over Valencia away makes Mallorca a royal pain in the arse this evening for Jose.
Mallorca , though, have conceded 3 goals in their last 3 away matches, and were beaten 3-1 by Villareal. Real should be able to replicate this ( and indeed the 1.17 indicates as much)

Head to heads - 1-3 ( MAllorca win at Real) , 2-0, 1-4 ( Real Madrid away win), 0-0

745pm - AC Milan v Cesena - 1.23 home - top v 4th from bottom - September 2010 2-0 home win for Cesena - did they catch AC Milan at a bad time?
4-0 and 3-0 v 18th and 19th, Cesena are 17th.,
Last 4 AC Milan matches have seen dropped points. 1-0 home loss to Roma, 1-0 away win at Calgliari, 4-4 home draw v Udinese ( where at no stage were AC Milan leading), 1-1 away draw v lowly Lecce)
This is not the form of a 1.23 shot, so the market makers must see Cesena as easy prey. Let's see!
Fresh in my mind is last weekend's one a day where Cesena came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 before eventually capitulating. This could be a tricky match for AC Milan today
1-0, 1-1, 1-2 ( away win), 3-2 -last 4 away matches have seen a fighting Cesena who are catching AC Milan on a bad return and still retaining top position in the league.

245 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Hurricane Fly, 3/1 Solwhit, 12/1 Voler La Vedette, 20/1 Thousand Stars, 25/1 Sublimity.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Today is the fifth time that HURRICANE FLY and Solwhit take each other on with the score currently standing at 3-1 to Willie Mullins' star hurdler, who looks hard to oppose again on recent form. His stablemate Thousand Stars looks open to improvement from his pleasing seasonal debut effort behind the two multiple Grade 1 winners and is capable of running a big race. [Brian Fleming]

Frosty in Kerry but advertised as soft ground at Leopardstown.

Hurricane Fly is 3-1 in head to heads with Solwhit and this looks set to continue in a race where only 2 are under 12/1

420 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zadarska, 7/2 Mart Lane, 4/1 Burn And Turn, 4/1 Shrapnel, 12/1 No Loose Change, 16/1 Clonleney, 16/1 Portion Control, 20/1 Universal Mind, 33/1 Bb Bonita, 33/1 Jay Cee Alexander.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Burn And Turn is the clear pick of those with racecourse form having chased home the well-touted newcomer Bog Warrior at Fairyhouse on New Years Day but this bumper could well be dominated by newcomers' Shrapnel, Mart Lane and ZABARSKA, who is taken to continue Willie Mullins' good record in the race. [Brian Fleming]

3 under 20/1 in this bumper thanks to a prominent non runner - Shrapnel, mart Lane and Burn are set to dominate this bumper.

120 MR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Problema Tic, 7/2 Saint Are, 9/2 Dear Sam, 20/1 Hudibras, 20/1 Speed Dating, 20/1 Tait´s Clock, 33/1 Cool Strike, 33/1 High Hoylander, 33/1 Practice Round, 33/1 Wistow, 66/1 Glory Nights, 66/1 King Sandor, 66/1 Look Officer, 66/1 Maraased, 100/1 Maybeme.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from unbeaten performer PROBLEMA TIC (nap), who created a favourable impression when winning on his hurdle debut last time (form franked), should be suited by the step up to this trip and hails from a yard that could hardly be in better form. [Richard Young]

3 under 20/1

305 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pret A Thou, 11/4 Coolbeg, 11/4 Old Way, 8/1 Ezdiyaad, 25/1 Caddie Master, 25/1 Dudley Docker, 25/1 Newton Tonic, 66/1 Drink Up, 66/1 Murfreesboro.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pret A Thou has done most of his racing over fences but he's 1-1 over hurdles in Britain and sets the standard on his form under both disciplines. However, the less-exposed pair Coolbeg and OLD WAY have the potential to improve past him, with preference for Venetia Williams' runner who has a nice pedigree and should be sharper for his Taunton run.[Steven Boow]

4th fav a non runner should make this a 3 horse race with the front 3 dominating but hard to split in the betting

SHORTLIST

130pm - VVV v PSV - 1.28 away - it looks compelling for PSV that VVV have lost all home matches against the 6 of the top 7 that they have played.

DLD away last 3 for PSV some slight concern but are playing the kind of opponents where they can register another win today.

145pm - Vaulx en Velin v Rennes - 1.23 away - illiquid betting market and we are betting blind re team news, home team form but this should be within the compass of 3rd in Ligue 1