4/1

A 5 furlong 2 year old maiden is not normally appealing, but this race features only 2 horses under 16/1. 1.05 is too short for Quality Road to place ( and I would prefer placing) which opens up Quality Road for the win or Mandy's Hero for the place ( 1.35 and the only other horse under 16/1)
Rustic Deacon must enter calculations today as he is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 ( yes concern with the poor grade but these price gappers usually place) and analysis of his last race emphasises he will be tough to beat under a penalty. Change to Kempton from Lingfield the only niggle.
The 110 Southwell really is a race for the good old fashioned probability bettor. This should involve 3 horses for 2 places but the standard to slow ground is very offputting.
Man Utd continue to score 2 goals or more at home ( bar one match) and are clearly dominant in head to heads ( 5/5 recently) but I would trade the 1.39 - I note that United scored 1st in all of those 5 matches in head to heads.
I would need team news to trigger a one a day bet though as Berbatov is clearly needed at home ( scoring 12 of his 14) in the absence of Rooney, possible absence of solid home performer Nani, and absence of Ji Sung Park ( 4 at home this season)

*****ONE A DAY - 230 KEMPTON - Mandy's Hero to place only*****

I am putting faith in the market and hope that this race is dominated by the 2 under 16/1 ( only 3 under 33/1) Quality Road to place is of course far safer but is reflected in the price


Good to see that the ones I fancy which didn't make the one a day went on to win. Trepidation about both as one was a bumper and the other a team returning from a break against local rivals who beat 3rd in the league at home.

8pm - Man Utd v Stoke - 1.39 home - equal points with City but 2 games in hand and those 2 games must be won if United want to stick it to their neighbours.
5/5 in last 5 head to heads.4/5 of those matches were won by United to nil which opens a trading window if we assume United score first ( in fact they scored 1st again in their latest meeting with Stoke, a 2-1 win away)
9 wins and a draw at home and United are the only unbeaten team in the Premiership ( the likeliness that they will go all season unbeaten is slim so we must wait for that opportunity to back against United)
United have won their last 6 matches at home .
Stoke are currently 8th and against 6th 9th and 10th, United have scored at least 2 goals at home.
In 9 of 10 home matches, United have scored 2 or more, and the only game without 2 United goals was against Arsenal .

Stoke are a surprising 8th and home and away against the top 7 has seen LDL(home) and LLL ( away)Away against 5th, 6th and 7th, they have conceded 2 goals away which ties into United's overall goalscoring exploits at home.
Stoke seem to come to life away against those outside the top 10, but importantly for us, they are overwhelmingly 2nd best against the top 10.
WDW in last 3 away might signal some concern but I reiterate the top 10 stat mentioned above.
Rooney doubtful this evening, which should hand the reins to Berbatov ( and I expressed concern with overreliance on him over the festive season for the goalscoring)
This is the United goalscoring charts -Berbatov 14 - next best 5! Nani 50/50 ( he has scored 4 at home ) , Park is out ( he has scored 4 at home)
Berb has scored 12 of those at home, so we need to see him this evening.

8pm - Blackpool v Birmingham - worth analysis given Blackpool's profile for goals. 100% over 2.5 goals for Blackpool at home and a strong form line against bottom 8 with 2 wins and 2 score draws, scoring 2 in each match. In fact in 6 home matches, Blackpool have scored 2 in 5 of them.
DWDWWL in recent form for Blackpool is exceptional ( loss was 1-0 v Man City)
Birmingham either draw or lose away , so lay them to win, or will this be the match where they end this sequence as they beat Blackpool 2-0 at home?
Watch out for goals in the 2nd half if this is a quiet affair up to half time. Brum seem to concede and score in the 2nd half, in fact they have conceded 11 goals in the minutes after half time.
Birmingham have only scored 1 in their last 3 away matches. Caution re the over 2.5 goals?


230 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Quality Art, 4/1 Mandy´s Hero, 20/1 Gower Sophia, 33/1 See The Storm, 50/1 Dancing Again, 50/1 Pickled Pumpkin, 50/1 Una Vita Pius, 66/1 Rightcar Dominic, 100/1 Louie´s Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak maiden and an obvious opportunity for QUALITY ART to get off the mark with Ryan Moore booked. Mandy's Hero has plenty to find to reverse Wolverhampton form but as that was his first start in nearly six months he is entitled to do better and looks the only danger.[Adrian Cook]

Ryan Moore a very eyecatching booking indeed aboard the hot pot here immediately makes this shortlist material.

2 2nd places with last 2 all weather runs and a beaten favourite.

Only 2 under 16/1 here and an obvious value alternative in Mandy's hero who has Frank Spencer on board. 1.05 to place and Mandy's Hero is 1.35 to place . Quality Art is 1.25 to winn


330 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rustic Deacon, 6/1 Vezere, 7/1 Love In The Park, 12/1 Munich, 16/1 Little Meadow, 20/1 Forbidden, 25/1 Barbirolli, 25/1 Carr Hall, 25/1 Hatch A Plan, 25/1 Ice Road Trucker, 25/1 Pedasus, 25/1 Vinces, 50/1 Etruscan, 100/1 Softly Killing Me.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to oppose RUSTIC DEACON (nap) who landed a gamble on his handicap debut at Lingfield last week with something to spare and can confirm his superiority over runner-up Vezere.[Adrian Cook]


Class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper on the beginning of a winning run?

Rustic deacon is clear here and these price gappers usually perform well - one of only 3 under 14/1 - 1.34 to place and the only one under evens in the place only market.

350 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Smokey George, 5/1 Be My Light, 11/2 Earl Of Thomond, 6/1 Home She Goes, 14/1 Cloudy Dawn, 16/1 Winter Holly, 25/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Aboukir Bay, 33/1 Everyman.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SMOKEY GEORGE (nap) found a big jolt of improvement when hammering his rivals at Uttoxeter last week and looks potentially thrown in under a penalty for an in-form yard. The main dangers are Be My Light and Earl Of Thomond.[David Moon]

Price gapper in a 9 runner race for 3 places.

Form of 6,9 8 12 suddenly ends with an emphatic win which raises suspicions with me regarding consistency. They normally "improve" for one reason - and that is a whopping great stable gamble!!! 1.22 to place. Is this a sudden turn around for Smokey George or did he just like the heavy ground last time better than his opponents in that race?


110 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Les Verguettes, 3/1 Silver Turn, 7/2 Close To The Edge, 25/1 Southwark Newshawk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LES VERGUETTES, just denied on Polytrack the last twice, looks a potential improver now switching surfaces and gets the vote. Silver Turn is feared most.[Andrew Mount]

You will recognise Les Verguettes from a probability race the other day - switch to the unique fibresand a slight concern but should be competitive IF handling the surface.

With non runners, this is now a 4 horse race for 2 places, with one 25/1 outsider so again a great probability race. - 3 for 2 places - STANDARD TO SLOW ground at Southwell today and this ground really is difficult for me to weigh up particularly with newcomers to the surface.

1.23 to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places is very appealing but Southwell when Standard is hard enough for newcomers to cope with, so obvious question marks about Standard to Slow ground for Les Verguettes - would be a nailed on one a dayer with standard ground only today.


SHORTLIST

230 KEMPTON - Ryan Moore is back and onboard Quality Art looks to be the man to get the 1 in the form lines. So chance 1.25 to win? 1.05 to place is too short ( although that doesn't put me off)

Obvious alternative is Mandy's Hero, who is 1.35 to place. By backing Mandy we are putting faith in the market being accurate -20/1 4th and actually 3 lengths short of Quality Art at Wolves. This is reasonable for a 177 day return. We need faith that the horse will progress again meeting this venue for the first time.

330 KEMPTON - Rustic Deacon fits into my price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and at around 1.3 to place he appeals. Landed a gamble last time - are we a race too late?
Analysis of last race "he´ll be hard to beat if turned out under a penalty" -so is today the day that he will show again and at least finish in the first 3 if not winning?

I will leave Smokey George alone - the improvement is simply too "out of the blue" for me

110 SOUTHWELL - this is put into the shortlist simply because it is a probability race - 3 horses and 2 places here. Les Verguettes would be a great one a day candidate today at 1.24 but I am worried that the ground is reported as standard to slow, and this makes the ground heavier than usual which might translate into a horse not showing true running.

8pm - Man Utd v Stoke - 1.39 home -clearly superior in head to heads, scoring first in each occasion in those matches. Have only failed to score 2 goals in one of 10 home matches this season. Turned a corner with first away win in a while last time out. Concerns with injury to Rooney, Park Ji Sung ( performs superbly goals wise at Old Trafford).
Must see Berbatov ( scored 12 of his 14 league goals at Old Trafford)




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