back-lay-trade-horses-football: 18/1

*****ONE A DAY - 115pm - South Korea v India back South Korea in the Half time market at 1.17 currently*****

Tullamore Dew placed and I am ruing not putting up Art History at a nice 1.57 to place for Johnston/Fanning - he went on to win!

115pm - Australia v Bahrain - 1.48 home - the Asian Cup brought me my first casualty of 2011 with a 1-1 draw. Will this do the same? If India can score 2 against you ( Bahrain) it says it all really! Australia only need a point to qualify. Bahrain need to win. Caution when the favourites only need a draw, as that will generally be their mentality. Bahrain have lost all 4 head to heads with the Aussies , and instinctively you would say the Aussies have the better pedigree of player.
115pm - South Korea v India - 1.03 - as when the Aussies played India, there must be a way to enhance the odds. - -Great news for us is that South Korea need all 3 points against India. 1.17 half time is perfectly acceptable for a 1.02 shot (1/50) India have conceded 4 and 5 in the Asian Cup so far. 3-0 at halftime for Australia and 4-1 at halftime for Bahrain. South Korea have beaten Bahrain 2-1 and drawn 1-1 with Australia.
South Korea have led at halftime against both Australia and Bahrain which augurs well for this halftime bet.
1.16 over 2.5 goals is the same as halftime odds wise.
1.37 over 3.5 goals may be worth speculating but South Korea don't come across as a team laden with natural attacking flair?

545pm - Genemuiden v Groningen - 1.19 away -Topklasse v Top flight - a strong Groningen side should seal victory in this Dutch Cup match. Genemuiden are LLLLD in their last 5 Topklasse matches so have nicely come off the boil for Groningen backers.
745pm - Dunfermline v Montrose - 1.2 home - Division 1 v Division 3 and a 2-2 draw on 8th January. The market expects the gulf in class to be truly exposed by Dunfermline with home advantage. Dunfermline are unbeaten at home in their last 11 matches, winning 8 and drawing 3.
745pm - Man City v Leicester - 1.38 home - a 2-2 draw on 9th January and I remember that well as I backed Man City after Leicester took the lead and traded out with the equaliser.
Home advantage could tell this evening for a City side clearly on the up.
1 loss in their last 12 only for City. Only 2 losses at home in last 12, and won 5 of last 6 at home.
Leicester have lost 4 of last 6 away and should be vulnerable this evening.
745pm - Rangers v Inverness CT - 1.25 home - 3 matches in hand and 5 points behind Celtic. Rangers win those matches in hand and they go top. Simples! And they must win their home matches. 0-1 (Caley win), 1-1 , 1-1 in last 3 head to heads is a concern. Are Caley simply a bogey side for Rangers? If so then 1.25 is layable. Caley have only lost once away and they have drawn away to all the top 3. This game is advertised on www.futbol24.com as a Premiership match but Caley and Rangers have played each other home and away already.
8pm - Napoli v Bologna - 1.49 home - Italian Cup match - I would have been very interested were this Seria A as Napoli have real chances in Seria A. Not for me this one.

Heavy ground at Folkstone precludes any interest there.

230 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bear´s Affair, 9/2 Heron Bay, 5/1 Basford Bob, 11/2 Ashammar, 20/1 Sanctuary, 25/1 Smudger, 25/1 The Quantum Kid, 33/1 Dispol Diva, 33/1 First Spirit, 66/1 St Enoder, 66/1 Warren Bank, 100/1 Lava Steps, 150/1 Just Lola, 150/1 Why So Serious.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bumper winner BEAR'S AFFAIR makes his hurdling debut and Nicky Henderson's charge has the potential to upstage previous hurdles winners Ashammar and Heron Bay. Another one to bear in mind is Basford Bob.[Richard Austen]

There are only 4 horses under 33/1 here in the betting. Faith in these 4 to fight out the places. Another Henderson newcomer leads the betting and he obliged well yesterday with another.

Heron Bay the value alternative as the nearest horse to the now 1/2 market leader?

400 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Victrix Gale, 5/1 Cue To Cue, 7/1 Baby Shine, 7/1 Florafern, 14/1 Hazy Dawn, 16/1 Goodtimes A´coming, 16/1 Tuilan, 20/1 Stickaround, 20/1 Tinagenic, 33/1 Poetic Beat, 50/1 Star Shuil, 66/1 Sharlene´s Quest, 100/1 Summerandlightning, 200/1 Sally O´malley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson is enjoying an outstanding month and can strike again with VICTRIX GALE, who should have a race of this nature in her following an encouraging debut at Worcester in the summer. Cue To Cue, Irish point winner Baby Shine and newcomer Florafern look the pick of the opposition.[Adrian Cook]

209 day absence a slight concern but there are no obstacles ( a bumper) and Victrix Gale maintains strong favouratism for men of the moment McCoy and Henderson.

350 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Piquante, 4/1 Cape Melody, 4/1 Emerald Girl, 11/2 Diapason, 6/1 Catching Zeds, 12/1 Lady Excel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Piquante is the obvious first port of call after her return to form last week but EMERALD GIRL didn't shape badly on her AW debut and is a reasonable alternative.[Paul Johnson]

5 horses now and 2 places - only have 3 to beat to place. 3/1 the fav tells of a tight race though.

450 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Duke Of Florence, 4/1 American Smooth, 4/1 Tornado Force, 15/2 Kassiodor, 50/1 Chik´s Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Provided the drop back in trip doesn't inconvenience him, DUKE OF FLORENCE can open his account. Tornado Force, bound to improve for the step up in trip, may be the one to beat.[Paul Johnson]

3 horses under 14/1 in the live betting market makes it a bit clearer than the betting forecast.

Duke of Florence a good starting point for what should be a 3 horse race for 2 place?

SHORTLIST