back-lay-trade-horses-football: 22/1

Over 1.5 goals for Bayern, Barca half time /over 2.5 goals and Masterminded stand out.

I think , with Bayern scoring 3 and 4 in their last 5 home matches against a side with an 89% away record over 2.5 goals,

***** 230pm - Bayern Munich v Kasierslautern - back over 1.5 goals at 1.2*****

Again there looks to be plenty of betting opportunities today. Perhaps a multiple? Last week's 1.73 was a success.

1	Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu (Laying Ankaragucu @ 16.09)
2	B Munich v Kaiserslautern (Laying Kaiserslautern @ 16.45)
3	Arsenal v Wigan (Backing Arsenal @ 1.18)
4	Celtic v Aberdeen (Laying Aberdeen @ 17.03)
5	Man Utd v Birmingham (Laying Birmingham @ 24.63)
6	Barcelona v Santander (Backing Barcelona @ 1.05)
7	Benfica v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 18.8)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	1.66	€100.00	€66.00

*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake:	€100.00
Your total potential win:	€66.00

The risk on Pineapple Pete did not pay off. A suspicious rise in place only price to 1.72 signalled something! The perennial "dark horse" at 16/1 shot off and nearly won and had an unassailable lead.
The Almere v Waalwijk match finished goal laden as expected and proved the safer bet.

2pm - Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu - 1.3 home - top v 13th and a most unexpected top in a league where Fenerbahce and Galatasary usually dominate.WWWWLW in head to heads. The loss was a 1-0.
7 wins, 1 draw ( 0-0) and a loss at home for Trabonzspor. 12 match unbeaten run for Trab DWWWWWWDWWWW. Last 4 wins have seen Trab score 3 goals in 3 matches and 2 in the other. Great form and full of confidence.
4 draws, a loss and a win for Ankar in their last 6.
Have been beaten 4-1 and 5-0 away to 5th and 6th place but not played top 4 away.
2-0 away win for Trab in last head to head.

230pm - B Munich v Kaiserslautern - 1.3 home - big gap in head to heads from 2006 to 2009 so concentrate on last 2 head to heads 2-0 BAyern away and 2-0 home win for Kaiserslautern in August 2010! Because Robben and Ribery were out for Bayern?
WWWWW last 5 at home for Bayern , a return to home invincibility, scoring 3,4,3,4,3.
Kaiser have lost away to all of the top 7 they have played. Will this negate the fact they beat Bayern at home 2-0 in August?
WLW away last 3 for Kaiserslautern.
89% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals, coupled with Bayern scoring 3,4,3,4,3 at home in last 5 a recipe for a goals bet?
3pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.2 home - a win takes Arsenal top for a short while ( Dependent on Man Utd's result) 4-0 and 2-0 head to heads at home - both shut outs of Wigan ( more possession for the Arse) WLWD head to heads last 4 ( both L and D were away at Wigan) - so Arsenal win at home but have difficulty at Wigan.
WDWDW last 5 for Arsenal -they have scored 3 in all wins. One draw was man City who came for the draw and the other recent draw was 2-2 away at , guess who, Wigan (where Arsenal were 2-1 up at one stage)
LLDWD away for Wigan recently and DDWDLDD in last 7 for Wigan home and away. Note only 1 loss in last 7 and 4 draws.
LLDL against top 5 ( 3 home and 1 away) in the matches Wigan have played .

3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.26 home - 2 games and 2 points in hand for Celtic at the top. Last 5 matches have been over 3.5 goals bar one 3-0 win for Celtic. Goals here? 9-0 last time out - remember the wounded animal syndrome re Aberdeen making sure this humiliation does not happen again.
DDDWW at home last 5 matches for Celtic and the draws ended. DDDWWWDW for Celtic last8 matches and the away draw v Hamilton makes them inconsistent.Away to the top 5, Aderdeen have lost the lot, but last 4 matches have seen 3 wins and a draw.
3pm - Man Utd v Birmingham - 1.22 home- equal with City and 2 games in hand. This is likely to be another tight affair between these 2 - 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 last 5 head to heads.
In 10 of 11 home matches, United have scored 2 goals at least. The 11th was against Arsenal. Will Brum be as stubborn as usual?
WWWWWWW at home last 7 for United.WWWWDWWD last 8 - one of the draws was 1-1 away to Brum very recently.
Bar the 0-0 v Spurs last time out, United scored first in 7 consecutive matches, which opens things up for a good trading bet?
Under 3.5 goals too given these 2's head to heads? Last 2 Old Trafford meetings have been 1-0.
DDLW last 4 away for Brum.

3pm - South Africa B v Sweden - 1.83 away - they scored first against Botswana and won 2-1 - 1.83 a good trade if Sweden score first again. - note this is not THE Sweden side.
7pm - Barcelona v Santander - 1.08 - those who read the eletter yesterday know short prices equal goals. Match against Betis an aberation and Barca team with a 5 goal cushion could not really be arsed against Betis. The pressure is off a little with REal slipping up last weekend ( as we know to our cost). 1.08 = goals.5,3,3,8,5,3,5,5,2,4,4 the goals scored by Barca in last 11 matches. 2,5,3,5,5,2,4 scored at home last 7 matches.
4-1, 4-0 and 3-0 the head to heads. Over 2.5 goals perhaps tonight?
In 11 of last 12, Barca led at half time - enhance the odds with a half time win bet?
Racing have lost away to 3 of the top 4, losing 6-1 to Real Madrid and Barca this season are far more potent than Real Madrid.
LLLLWDL away for Racing.

915pm - Benfica v Nacional - 1.27 home - 6 wins on the trot and 7 wins on the trot at home see Benfica return to the glory days of last year where they were scoring for fun.
2nd match of the season saw Nacional win 2-1. benfica seem to have found their stride since.
4,3,2,5,3,1 scored in last 6 wins for Benfica, 4,2,5 at home.
LDLWLD away for NAcional - inconsistent.Nacional have only conceded one goal in their last 3 matches so perhaps a change to a more defensive unit? They have not scored, though, in their last 3 either.

115 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Grandouet, 4/1 Plenty Pocket, 12/1 Magic Prospect, 12/1 Singapore Storm, 14/1 Two Kisses, 16/1 L´eminence Grise, 16/1 Looks Like Slim, 33/1 Whitby Jack, 40/1 Ostentation, 100/1 Truly Magic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would be a big shock if GRANDOUET were turned over by any of the others that have already run over hurdles. He is disputing favouritism for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, for which today's hurdling newcomer Plenty Pocket figures at 20-1 in some lists. That Nicholls-trained recruit from France receives 10lb and is the chief concern, though Magic Prospect also had fairly useful form on the Flat.[Richard Austen]

" a big shock" - that's what we want!

Only 2 under 14/1

225 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Master Minded, 7/1 Petit Robin, 7/1 Somersby, 12/1 Mad Max, 16/1 Crack Away Jack, 20/1 Gauvain, 25/1 Kalahari King, 25/1 Tchico Polos, 33/1 I´m So Lucky.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see beyond MASTER MINDED, who won this by a long way in 2009 and has looked back to something very close to his best in two wins this term when seemingly putting last season's difficulties firmly behind him. Somersby was second to the selection at Cheltenham last time and there are grounds for arguing he can step up a bit on that form again now. He may again claim second, with Petit Robin taken to complete a replication of the Cheltenham placings and taking third. [Mel Cullinan]

huge price gapper who should place with a clear round.

200 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Crafty Roberto, 9/2 Snowy Peak, 12/1 Ruby Brook, 14/1 Caravan Rolls On, 14/1 Have Another, 20/1 Lakota Ghost, 33/1 Pizzetti, 33/1 Revolutionary, 66/1 Dance To Destiny, 66/1 Emerald Royal, 66/1 Talkin Italian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting newcomers and a likely improver in Snowy Peak, but CRAFTY ROBERTO looked a surefire future winner when second at Kempton last month and can go one better here.[Paul Smith]

" a surefire future winner" - Snowy Peak has been backed

235 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Insolenceofoffice, 7/1 Slatey Hen, 7/1 Striking Eyes, 10/1 Golden Shine, 12/1 Imogen Louise, 14/1 Ajaafa, 20/1 Bluberry, 20/1 Doesn´t Care, 25/1 Tony Hollis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Striking Eyes may well do better with her debut behind her but INSOLENCEOFOFFICE hasn't done much wrong this winter and he can make a winning start for David Nicholls.[Paul Smith]

Huge price gapper but suspiciously long winning run.

430 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Arthurian Legend, 2/1 Ramses De Marcigny, 9/1 Joker Choker, 9/1 Nosecond Chance, 12/1 Cap Elorn, 16/1 Otis Tarda, 16/1 Steptoe, 20/1 Hawkaller, 25/1 Calico Rose, 25/1 E Street Boy, 28/1 Tenby Jewel, 33/1 Behindcloseddoors, 33/1 Calusa Catrina, 40/1 Direct Flo, 40/1 Furrows, 40/1 Russian Conquest, 50/1 Wosayu, 66/1 Honest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lots of deadwood in a race in which RAMSES DE MARCIGNY and Arthurian Legend stand out. The latter is much respected on his hurdles debut win but was disappointing last time so preference is for Ramses de Marcigny, whose bumper form would make him a formidable rival on these terms anyway, if taking to hurdles. [Mel Cullinan]

Lots of deadwood - faith in the front 2 to dominate?

SHORTLIST

2pm - Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu - 1.3 home - possibility of a draw a slight concern given recent away side's record