Worth the risk I think. Looks a big price for Japan.
2-0 for Bolton with 2 late goals and a trip to www.soccerstats.com would tell you that Bolton have scored 20 in the last 1/2 hour in matches and 11 in the last 15 minutes so I was not overtly concerned with the 0-0 dragging on. 1.27 in retrospect was a huge price given the opposition.
The horse racing was weather affected yesterday and is best left alone if heavy as the number of suprise results would recount.
115pm - Japan v Jordan - 1.31 home - am I missing something here or does this price look huge? I mean, world footballing superpowers Jordan!! It is difficult to compare the form, but logic dictates that a team who can beat Argentina ( albeit 1-0 in a friendly) must have a key advantage over a team who have drawn with Cyprus, Uzbekisan and, erm, Syria.
130pm - Aurillac v Nancy - 1.41 away - highly illiquid market but surely Nancy have the advantage here. Nancy are top flight.
130pm - Man Utd v Liverpool - 1.78 home - King Kenny Rogers is back at Anfield but surely this does not mean much for a team unbeaten this season versus a team in disarray. 5/6 head to heads have been over 2.5 goals. The other was 2-0.
130pm - Tottenham v Charlton - 1.33 home -watch out for team changes here for Spuds. That is what may stop me getting involved as a first team is clearly going to have one over Charlton.
2pm - Lazio v Lecce - 1.41 home - 2nd v 2nd from bottom. - Only 3 losses in last 12 for Lazio. 6 wins, 2 draws and a loss at home for Lazio.
WDWW last 4 at home for Lazio.
3 of their last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Generally, though, for Lazio, only 1/3rd of all matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Lecce have lost 4 of the matches away to top 5 that they have played.They have not scored either in those 4 matches.
6 losses and a win in last 7. My concern here is that recent Italian results coming back from the break have been surprising.
3pm - Chelsea v Ipswich - 1.25 home - 1 win in last 8 for Chelsea and that was a 1-0.
WLWDWD at home for Chelsea -the Villa draw could have been the springboard for a better season were it not for the 91st minute equaliser to make it 3-3.
LLLLWLLWDL for Ipswich has meant Keano has extra time now to walk his dogs.
Surely even a poor Chelsea cannot fluff their lines this time?
330pm - Berwick v Celtic - 1.13 away - Premiership v Division 3 and we can enhance the odds with goals here. 1.31 over 2.5 goals perhaps or 1.42 halftime/fulltime Celtic/Celtic.
Berwick have not played their last 5 matches through postponements , so , like Aberdeen yesterday, Celtic should exploit this.
530pm - Kerkira v Olympiakos - 1.45 away - 3,3,2,3,2 the goals scored by Oly in last 5 head to heads makes this 1.45 quite enticing.
Oly have won 10 and lost 2 in last 12, and those 2 losses were against 2nd and 3rd in the league.
4 of their last 7 wins have been 1-0's, typically greek.
13 wins and 3 losses for Oly this season. No draws at all.
3 of Olympiakos's last 5 matches away have been 1-0. Last 2 aways have been 1-0 wins so prepare for a tight match today.
Kerkira at home to top 5 have only lost one ( to Pana 2-0) but against the 3rd, 4th and 5th, 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 -interesting results.
I would, though, put Oly on an equal par with Panathanaikos.
6pm - Real Madrid v Villarreal - 1.35 home - this is short for 2nd v 3rd but remember that Jose does not lose at home. This narrows it down to draw or loss. Barca and REal are clear of Villareal in 3rd 100% home record for Real Madrid hints perhaps at a home win( as does the odds of course)
3-1, 1-0, 1-0 losses for Villareal away to 1st, 7th and 11th . Tight away matches bar the anomolous Barca.
Villareal have lost 2 of the last 3 away, but won 4 of last 5 matches.
140 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Holyrood, 2/1 Castle Myth, 5/2 Dunaskin, 12/1 Sir Haydn, 25/1 Lava Steps.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BHA marks suggest Holyrood has plenty in hand but there are doubts as to whether he is worth that mark and preference is for CASTLE MYTH who can register his fourth course success.[Adrian Cook]
Should be 3 for 2 places but a 1/9 shot losing proves that sellers are minefields.
215 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Dontpaytheferryman, 5/1 Mediterranean Sea, 8/1 Eseej, 12/1 Jackie Kiely, 33/1 Crimson Monarch, 66/1 Credential, 66/1 Wogan´s Sister.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The consistent Mediterranean Sea should run her race while triple course winner Eseej is well treated if returning at his best, but DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN should surely collect again following his two recent wide-margin course successes.[Adrian Cook]
2/5 - - - 7/1 price gapper here in a class 6 0-65 handicap.1211 in last 4 races and handicappers will eventually bomb out because of the increased weight.
Only 2 places but a 3 day course and distance winner. Has won at Southwell in last 2 races -will the fact that this horse loves Southwell be the key?
245 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dubai Hills, 5/1 Everymanforhimself, 8/1 Alpha Tauri, 10/1 Fishforcompliments, 14/1 Elusive Fame, 14/1 Slikback Jack, 20/1 Thunderball, 25/1 Fantasy Fighter.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A more competitive handicap than the pair DUBAI HILLS (nap) has trotted up in over C&D the last twice and there are other front-runners in opposition, but Bryan Smart's gelding is still hard to oppose as he is sure to be much higher in the weights in future. Everymanforhimself is feared most.[Adrian Cook]
4/6 - - - -6/1 Dubai Hills. You will recall I mentioned him last time out when he won - was that the time to back the horse ( clearly it was) but will it mean we can back Dubai Hills again - after all it is 8 runners and 3 places.
SHORTLIST
115pm - Japan v Jordan - 1.31 home - this might just be worth the risk. Japan are solid international performers and Jordan has 2 big ones up front but that's about it. The weather may be a factor but Jordan's opponents recently have not really stretched them3pm - Chelsea v Ipswich - 1.25 home - surely surely surely? Ipswich are in disarray, and Chelsea showed a little something against Villa. They must take advantage?
530pm - Kerkira v Olympiakos - 1.45 away - Oly are in great form, and have clear dominance over their opponents in head to heads, scoring a minimum of 2.
This could be a typically tight affair and 1-0 Oly might be tradeable here ?
6pm - Real Madrid v Villarreal - 1.35 home - in his 9th year of being unbeaten in the League , the Special one returns. This gives us the win or the draw and the market points to the win, as does the home form.
215 SOUTHWELL - only 2 places 1.15 to place - multiple winning handicappers will fail eventually. 1211 in form - the market indicates that there is another win there for Don'tpaytheferryman.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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