back-lay-trade-horses-football: 11/1

The best price for me today is Llanelli or Dunfermline. Both are not in running. Stoneacre Gareth is a monster gamble and the 1.76 to place ( illiquid market) may be worth taking if this horse takes to the fibresand.
Egypt are 1.11 with Ladbrokes so whatever is left of the 1.15+ is worth taking but the price would collapse if I put this up as a one a day bet because of the lack of liquidity here.

*****250 SOUTHWELL - Powerful Presence to place only***** - Joe Fanning onboard again and the price drift, I suspect, is in reaction to Stoneacre Gareth's gamble. Speculators might want to follow this one , quoted 50/1 in the betting forecast, and now 4/1 2nd favourite, incase the gamble comes off..
Powerful Presence is one of 3 under 16/1, has raced at Southwell last twice and should place.

The Australian half time bet paid off with a 2-0 lead for the Aussies at half time.

5pm - Egypt v Burundi - 1.19 home - highly illiquid market - a friendly and friendlies are hideous. +2 and +2.5 asian handicaps makes Egypt warm order, and they should be.
Only 3 losses in last 12 matches for Egypt , Burundi have only won 2 of last 12 and they were both against World Champions in waiting, erm, the Seychelles.It's an illiquid market though.
730pm - Llanelli v Haverfordwest - 1.28 home - only 2 wins in last 12 for Haverfordwest but they have come in last 3 matches.
DDWWW in last 5 in the league for Llanelli.
Only 2 wins in last 12 for Haverfordwest. 6,1,4,4,0,6 the goals conceded by HAverfordwest in last 6 away.
5th v 11/12
-26 goal difference for Haverfordwest.
730pm - Galatasaray v Beypazari Sekerspor - 1.18 home Top flight v Division 3. Last 2 cup games for Beypazari have been 1-1-'s

745pm - Dunfermline v Montrose - 1.26 home - 8th of Jan and Montrose scored first but Dunfermline made it 2-1 until succumbing to a 91st minute equaliser. Expect a redress with home advantage for this Division 1 team v Division 3.

Heavy at Leicester is not ideal but we may be able to take advantage of some non runners reducing fields.

100 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Any Given Moment, 7/2 Clowance House, 5/1 First Smash, 6/1 Non Dom, 7/1 Bun Oir, 8/1 Ezdiyaad, 16/1 Peqeno Diablo, 33/1 Bit Of A Clown, 40/1 Kilcommon Pride, 50/1 Mandalay Prince, 66/1 Goodtimetoby.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Having shaped with promise back from a lengthy absence on his hurdles debut at Newbury, CLOWANCE HOUSE is taken to capitalise on this weaker opportunity. Any Given Day has joined a top yard and should give him most to do.[Mark Brown]

There are 6 horses under 33/1 so this should be a 50/50 race -6 horses for 3 places.

300 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 The Cockney Mackem, 11/4 Featherbed Lane, 7/1 Jordaura, 8/1 Harvest Song, 12/1 Art Broker, 12/1 Bold Adventure, 20/1 Chase Gate, 66/1 Bridge Street Boy, 100/1 Action Hawk, 100/1 Fifth Sea Lord.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a race that will take much winning. It looks to prove a good opportunity for THE COCKNEY MACKEM to make a winning debut over hurdles and maintain his 100% record. Featherbed Lane, with the assistance of McCoy, is by far the biggest threat.[Mark Brown]

There are only 2 horses under 10/1 - we need to have faith that these 2 will dominate before getting involved in heavy ground. 110 days absence for The Cockney mackem, and Featherbed has not run on heavy.

330 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Phidippides, 100/30 Teddy´s Reflection, 9/2 Topsham Belle, 7/1 Sandynow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for PHIDIPPIDES (nap) who was the best of these over hurdles and, judging by what we've seen over fences so far, looks likely to be just as good in this sphere. He should stay 3m fine and can follow up his 2m4f Ludlow win last time, possibly at the main expense of Teddy's Reflection.[Mel Cullinan]

4 horses and 2 places and Phidippides is the obvious choice for this novices chase.

340 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Zhakiera Spirit, 11/4 Looby Magoodle, 11/1 Serenitatis, 12/1 High Expectation, 14/1 Strandfield Bay, 16/1 Heather Glen, 25/1 Perfect Catch, 28/1 Cool Water, 33/1 Fashion Stakes, 40/1 A Beat So Far, 50/1 Mordetta Road.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZHAKIERA SPIRIT is very well bred and looked as though she had inherited a good deal of the family ability when winning on her debut at Wetherby in November. She is likely to be tough to beat under a penalty, though it is advisable to keep a close eye on Richard Fahey's Looby Magoodle in the betting. [Mel Cullinan]

4 under 16/1 in this bumper ( you know what I'm going to say next - ideally look at the market nearer the off) - zhakiera Spirit is the obvious place only chance. These one time out bumper winners have performed well.

120 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Odin´s Raven, 5/2 Stanley Rigby, 7/1 Money Money Money, 8/1 Duar Mapel, 14/1 My Mate Mal, 16/1 Dispol Diva, 50/1 Cragganmore Creek.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight ODIN'S RAVEN (nap) will surely have more to do when reassessed for last week's C&D maiden win over a rival rated 20lb his superior and can defy his penalty at the expense of Stanley Rigby.[Adrian Cook]

6 horses and still 3 places -this is an ideal place only probability race. 2 horses are 16/1 and 33/1 leaving 4 for 3 places.

A class 6 0-60 handicap and the favourite is a course and distance winner( important at this course)

250 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Powerful Presence, 7/1 Hambleton, 7/1 Raghdaan, 10/1 Noble Attitude, 20/1 Countrycraft, 25/1 Cause For Applause, 33/1 Rose Bed, 50/1 Northumberland, 50/1 Stoneacre Gareth.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Well over half of these are rated below 45 and an obvious opportunity for POWERFUL PRESENCE, who won well in 0-60 company last week, to collect again.[Adrian Cook]

Huge price gapper here and , great for me, has Joe Fanning onboard, one of my favourite jockeys, known for his partnership with Mark Johnston.

Stoneacre Gareth is an amazing 4/1 here ( 50/1 in the betting forecast ) - -a stable gamble if ever there was one in this lowly grade. " Huge absence to overcome" - I smell a monster gamble!!

Owners obviously think Stoneacre will cope with this lowly grade.

SHORTLIST