A trickier day than it would appear at first. Trendelenburg is the biggest price gapper of the day in his handicap hurdle and should place, all things being equal but the race does not sit with me as being a race where I can be really confident. Only ran 4 days ago in soft/heavy ground -that's the concern.
The only other bets of interest are the City and United bets but I would approach from a trading perspective only.
United have scored first in 72% of their matches this season and should be able to do so against a faltering West Brom who have lost 3 of their last 4 at home.
Blackpool are difficult to predict away from home DDWW in their last 4 and in 3 of those matches, they did not concede. BUT against top 4, lost 4-0 and 6-0 v Chelsea and Arsenal.
0,0,0,1,1,1,4 the goals scored by City at home - the 4 v Villa is very anomolous and marry that with Blackpool's away performances recently, and City could win but in a potential tight match ( which, on the other hand could be a goalfest knowing Blackpool)
A difficult match to read!!!
*****ONE A DAY - No bet for me today. Nothing strong at all today ( and I continue to measure against bets like Club Brugge which stand out)
Were I pressed, I think United meet West Brom at the right time, and if they can get the goals from other than Berbatov, have a decent chance at a nice price. The 72% scoring stat is tempting*****
I was expected a better number of strong bets given the day, but they have not materialised.
1245pm - West Brom v Man Utd - 1.62 away - 4,3,3,4,5,4 the number of goals between these 2 in head to heads.
5,1,4,3,2,4 the number of goals in West Brom's last 6 matches.
2,3,2,3,4,4 in West Brom's 6 at home.
They do like conceding.
Man Utd's matches, though, do not match the goal scoring exploits as well as West Broms.
DDDDWDDD away for United is some showing! The only unbeaten side in the Premiership keep shipping points away.
United score first in 72% of their matches but are solely reliant on Berbatov it would seem ( 14 goals with next best on 5). If Berbatov does not score, who will?
Against bottom half of the table, United's away draws have all been score draws.
West Brom have lost 7 of their last 10 matches, and lost the last 3 on the trot. LLWL at home in last 4 signals the early season promise has ended sharply.
Have only played one of the current top 4 at home and lost 2-0 to Man City
1-1, 1-1,0 against 5th, 6th and 7th at home, but I suspect the difference in class between those and top is marked.
230pm - The New Saints v Newtown - 1.18 home - 2nd but 16 points adrift but 2 games in hand. Must wins therefore, but last 4 matches have been postponed - ring rustiness?
Have won last 9 at home in all competitions.
Newton have a -12 goal difference in the league which alerts you to their problems.
LLLLDLD away in last 7 for Newtown.
Looks an obvious home win but LDDDLLLD - draw or lose - priced to lose of course today.
3pm - Man City v Blackpool - 1.3 home - goals anyone?
2-3 in sole October 2010 head to head.
5,2,1,4,2,3,4,4 the goals in City's last few matches.
3,5,2,3,4,5,0,3,4,1,2 for Blackpool.
Focus on last 4 for each side and it makes interesting reading 2,3,4,4/3,4,1,2 - a slight dip for Blackpool and a resurgence for City.
At home, recently though, City scored 000,1,,1,4 - has that 4 against Villa purged the goalscoring demons?
Against top 11, City have scored 1,1,1,1 , 0 0 which is a concern.
It seems convincing for Blackpool though against top 4, losing 4-0 and 6-0 away . A step in class too far?
230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Boogie Star, 2/1 Double Duchess, 3/1 Ad Vitam, 16/1 Blade Pirate, 50/1 Evelyns Diamond, 50/1 Ice Angel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Boogie Star may have more to offer on this surface and has to be feared despite his penalty, but DOUBLE DUCHESS will find this easier than the maiden she tackled on her debut and is an interesting contender.[Paul Smith]
This is the first race of interest today and it is a poor seller on fibresand. The jumps cards are littered with maiden hurdles which I am unwilling to bet on.
This is a pure probability race - default to the current favourite Boogie star? A race though where you cannot really trust any of these sellers.
215 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Trendelenburg, 7/1 Mister Farmer, 12/1 Almanyan, 12/1 Ballylanigan, 12/1 Bobsthewizard, 12/1 Energiser, 12/1 Manger Hanagment, 12/1 Retrievethelegend, 14/1 Catleen, 16/1 Nuvelli, 20/1 Chevalier Country, 20/1 Garamor Boy, 20/1 Midnight Present, 20/1 Oh So Humbel, 20/1 Top Four, 25/1 Toomdeely.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRENDELENBURG will be rightly popular in a race in which very few can be seriously entertained. [Johnny Ward]
Huge price gapper here for Gordon Elliott and I will be ignoring trainer's opinions after his debacle 2 days ago.
Impressive last run 4 days ago, 2nd and pulled well clear of the rest of the field, he should gain compensation today if this race does not come too soon.
16 runners means 4 places affords us some luxury.
SHORTLIST
A difficult day when we delve in today with the football matches coming after a busy period and the best performances likely to be from the managers who have managed their squads the best.
1245pm - West Brom v Man Utd - 1.62 away - 1.29 over 1.5 goals is of some appeal until we acknowledge the huge over reliance on Berbatov. United's draw sequences away from home must end soon and against the right opponents it will. Have they found those opponents today in a faltering West Brom?3pm - Man City v Blackpool - 1.3 home - 1.19 over 1.5 goals? City's over 2.5 goal record is 50/50 but in their last 4 matches, 3 have been over 3.5 goals and 1 over 2.5 goals - Blackpool away to top 4 have been spanked royally, conceding 10 and scoring none in the 2 against Arsenal and Chelsea
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