Celtic have scored first in 8 of their last 9 matches - away at Hamilton was a problem.
The Darren Bent factor is a concern at United this evening, but United's very strong half time defensive record means Next Goal United is of appeal as well.
Horse racing, and SIre de grugy to place is a reasonable 1.09 in a tough day and a clear round should suffice.
At Southwell we have a 4 horse race for 2 places, and Kishanda has had the one run ( might be green!!) but importantly that one run was on this surface.1.27 to place is reasonable and this is a 50/50 race - 2 will place and 2 will not.
New Latin comes for a stable with 6 wins from last 8 sent out on all weather but 70 last 2 runs is offputting.
*****ONE A DAY - 210 FOLKSTONE - Sire de Grugy to place at 1.10***** I would not go any lower.
I don't know where Den Bosch and Fortuna disappeared too. Postponed I think. A pity. The 450 Wolves delivered with the 2 under 16/1 finishing 1st and 2nd in a 6 horse race for 3 races. What I would give for one of these every day.
545pm - FC Nordsj v Shakhtar - 1.49 away - a friendly - over 2.5 goals in their last matches for Shaktar, all friendlies so goals the way here for a match which is difficult to evaluate.
730pm - Rennes v Reims - 1.51 home - Top flight v Division 2 in the French Cup. Again no collateral form and a hope that being home and in a better league will see Rennes clear. 4th in the top flight, Rennes are still in with a shout of the title.
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - league match and near 1.5 indicates these are usually struggles.4-1 away to Celtic as recently as the 29th January. Take this on trust ( Cup game!!) or factor in the wounded animal syndrome where Aberdeen will make sure this does not happen again?
Only one of last 5 head to heads was under 3.5 goals.
RAngers have 2 games in hand at the top of the league so Celtic must win for psychological reasons ( being top) more than anything.
No defeat in 11 for Celtic and 3 match winning streak. Have won 6 of their last 7. 8 wins, 1 loss and a draw away from home. Away at Aberdeen will complete this.
In 6 of 9 away matches, Celtic shut out the opposition.
4 wins and a draw punctured by a 1-0 away loss at Celtic for Aberdeen. They looked to be recapturing some consistency.
Aberdeen have lost all 4 matches they have played at home against the top 5.
The only wins at home for Aberdeen have come against the bottom 3.
RAngers won 2-3 at Aberdeen so expect goals this evening? Celtic have conceded only 1 in their last 7 matches so if they score they should win?
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - Premiership returns after a raft of Cup matches. Within touching distance of Manchester United at the top. A win keeps it that way. Arsenal have not lost the last 6 head to heads against Everton. 5 match winning streak for Arsenal in all competitions where they scored 3,3,3,3,2 .Only lost 2 of last 12 in all competitions ( 1-0 away to Ipswich in a 2 legged affair not worth consideration really and 1-0 away at United.)
No defeat in 6 for Arsenal. 3-0, 0-0, 3-0, 3-0 last 4 matches for Arsenal and all shut outs too.
3 losses at home, 2 were 2-3 and 1was 1-0.
After 2 losses on the trot at home in November , Arsenal have responded with WWDW ( the draw was Man City bringing the Sheikh's learjet and parking it infront of goal.
Arsenal average 2 goals scored at home .
Nearly 3/4 of their home matches are over 2.5 goals.
In 23 matches, Arsenal have conceded only 3 goals in the first halfhour of matches and 8 in the first half. So perhaps worth backing Arsenal at 1.49 to trade as they are likely to score first.
The opponent leads in the first half in only 13% of Arsenal's matches.
Against the top 8 sides Everton have played away, it has been WDDDDL - the draws were all score draws 1-1 and 2-2 equal split.
This tells us Everton have the wherewithall to score away from home against the big boys. Factor this into a goals bet?
As if to compound this, Everton's last 2 matches have been 2-2 draws
Only 1 loss in their last 7 matches , but 5 draws! These draws keep returning!
DDDDDWDLD away from home for Everton - it's those fecking draws again!!
All of the last 6 away draws have been score draws.
Over 1.5 goals looks safe?
745pm - Wrexham v Altrincham - 1.4 home - English conference and still to be convinced of its consistency
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - what a season for Ole Red Nose! Unbeaten thus far and will Darren Bent stop United from another unbeaten match this evening? The question is - will United win or draw?
LDWD in head to heads shows Villa may be a bogey team ( L was a Villa 1-0 win at Old Trafford)
1 loss in last 12 in all competitions for United was away loss at West Ham in the Cup.
Next Champions League match is the 23rd February so should be no tinkering just yet for Fergie.
11 wins and a draw at home this season for United.
8 wins on the trot at home for United.
In 11 of 12 matches at home, UNited have scored 2 goals minimum. United have not played 11th to 15th in the league at home yet ( Villa are 13th) so nothing to gauge regards this part of the league.
United have only conceded 5 in the first half of all matches this season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool last match lol!!)
Berbatov the key, 15 of his 19 goals have been scored at home.
Opponent leads at half time in only 4.3% of matches so look for a half time bet here?
7 losses and a 3-3 draw away to the top 10 sides.
DLDWW since 2011 for Villa - is this down to Houllier? Loss was 1-0 v Sunderland.
LDLLLDDW away for Villa . Unbeaten in last 3 away matches.
Villa have conceded a massive 14 goals in the last 1/4 hour of their matches ( something in play traders should note if the match is drawn or goalless coming to the 75th minute)
210 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Sire De Grugy, 6/1 Alwaysonthemove, 7/1 Fireitfromye, 14/1 Keepthebooton, 16/1 Caddie Master, 33/1 Premier Article.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIRE DE GRUGY looks at least one cut above his rivals and ought to prove very hard to beat.[Jonathan Neesom]
Hardened to 1/7 now , the big returns are in the 2nd placed horse.
240 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Native Gallery, 13/8 Swift Lord, 9/2 No More Prisoners, 25/1 Karingabay Queen, 25/1 Pipes A´calling, 33/1 Ballinhassig, 33/1 Big Bertie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Native Gallery looks the safest option, given his good effort less than three months ago, but SWIFT LORD's hurdling effort at Ludlow a year ago looks every bit as good. Seven of the first eight home in that race have won since and he can complete the set on his chasing debut.[Jonathan Neesom]
We see this a lot - 3 horses under 25/1 here should fight out the finishes but bring a prayer mat!! This is a maiden chase and the likelihood of some jumping errors is high.
400 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs New Latin, 7/4 Kishanda, 6/1 Pizzetti, 8/1 Cadgers Brig.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden in which NEW LATIN can appreciate the step up to 1m, boost his in-form trainer's great strike-rate here and see off Kishanda.[Adrian Cook]
Fanning/Johnston on New Latin could place in a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places.Yet to race at Southwell though an important consideration.
Very tricky card at Taunton.
SHORTLIST
Battle of 1st and 2nd in the Premiership. Both teams must win to keep the pressure on the other. Both sides are at home and should not lose at least.
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - backing Arsenal at 1.49 and hoping they score first - they conceded only 8 matches in the first half this season in the Premiership.
Over 1.5 goals an option given everton manage to score away from home?
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - this looks a safer option for goals. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 is interesting but may rely on United. Still it will capture any goals scored by Bent too!
210 FOLKSTONE - 1.09 to place and 1.24 to win for Sire de Grugy who has hardened into 1/7 with the bookies. Only 2 places
240 FOLKSTONE - 3 under 25/1 but all are chase debutants We will get reasonable place only prices because of this fact and because there are only 2 runners.
400 SOUTHWELL - more debutants , this time with the Fibresand's surfaces. 1.26 for New Latin and Kishanda to place in a 50/50 race for 2 places .
A bit of digging reveals Kishanda is the only horse out of the quartet to have raced on the Southwell fibresand, a 2nd to another Mark Johnston horse.
Will this experience prove vital? Analysis of last race?
"There was a fair bit to like about the way she finished, though, and she could well be up to going one better if returning here next time."
It is difficult to call. New Latin comes from the Johnston/Fanning partnership who are proving devastating - 6 wins out of last 8 sent out by Johnston on the all weather. Has no Southwell experience this horse, that is the slight niggle.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.49 away - given the fact Celtic have conceded only 1 goal in their last 7 matches, 1.42 ( in a slightly illiquid market ) for Next Goal Celtic is of some interest here.
1.27 over 1.5 goals but this might be a 1-0 this evening after the 4-1 cup loss last match.
745pm - Arsenal v Everton - 1.49 home - given Arsenal have conceded only 8 goals in the first half this season , back Next Goal Arsenal at around 1.4?
1.27 over 1.5 goals , no Cahill for Everton though.
Laying Everton at half time at odds of 7.8 is around a 1.14 bet.
8pm - Man Utd v Aston Villa - 1.37 home - slightly unnerved by the head to heads -only one wi n for United in last 4 against Villa.
Arrival of Darren Bent may be a confidence booster for Villa.
Angles here?
United scored 2 or more in 11 of 12 matches at home. BAck over 1.5 goals at 1.22
United only conceded 5 in first half all season -Next goal Man Utd at 1.33 gives us a first half to hope that this defensive strength continues and United score first.
210 FOLKSTONE - in a tricky footballing day ( I can think of bets but there is a trading angle to them largely that I find hard to convey here) it may be safe to go with Sire de grugy to place if you can get 1.10
400 SOUTHWELL - 4 horses and 2 places and Kishanda has the Southwell experience albeit only 2nd start today so still has L plates on. Johnston has won 6 of the last 8 races on the all weather in which he has competed making New Latin interesting despite lack of experience at Southwell
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment