19/2

For me today, standout is the Inter v Calgliari match and the 120 Ascot which should be a 4 horse race for the 4 under 18/1

*****ONE A DAY - 120 ASCOT - Tornado Bob to place only******Around 1.3 to place - if not enough money, take Betfair SP

Another day with many opportunities. I just hope I have chosen the right one. 4 under 18/1 and a clear round should suffice to place here.

1230pm - Chelsea v Everton - 1.63 home - FA cup match so first stop is really team news . No point to research and analysis on an FA Cup tie.

2pm - Siena v Piacenza - 1.48 home -3rd v 18th and a win takes Siena top for a small while. Siena have lost only 3 matches this season and they were away, so you expect Siena to stay unbeaten . Motivation on their side to go top. 3 0-0 draws in their last 4 were all away with the win 4-0 at home. A problem with goals perhaps?WWDWWWW in last 7 at home for Siena 3,3,1,3,2,2,4 scored at home. No defeat in 18 at home. 6 of last 7 home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

1-0 win over Piacenza at Piacenza - only one win away for Piacenza. DDLDDDL -5 draws in last 7 away .

230pm - Dortmund v St Pauli - 1.33 home - always good to focus on promoted sides and St Pauli have been pulling their weight of late . 3-1 Dortmund win at St Pauli and you would expect the promoted side to struggle this afternoon against the league leaders who have a superb +34 goal difference. Dortmund have only lost 2 all season, and one was the first match of the season. 3 draws in their last 4 matches for Dortmund is a concern given that St PAuli have been punching above their weight in their last few matches.

DWWWDD in last 6 for Dortmund at home. 1-1 and 0-0 in last 2 home matches.Amazingly for a team who have a superb goal difference, a massive 80% of Dortmund's home matches have been UNDER 2.5 goals.

2 draws at home against 9th and 10th ( St Pauli are 11th) might be something worth noting.

Dortmund's strength? Their defence ( now you realise why they can have such a good goal difference with 80% home matches under 2.5 goals)

Dortmund have conceded only 6 in the first half in ALL of their league matches this season. In the first 1/2 hour of the 2nd half they have conceded only 1 goals. BUT they conceded 6 in the last 1/4 hour of the match so lapses in concentration at the end of matches?

St PAuli are loving 2011 DDWWW and a most surprising 1-0 away win at Hamburg last time out.

So, this is perhaps not an ideal time for Dortmund with their 3 draws in last 4 matches.LLLLDW away for St Pauli in last 6 matches.

Only 1 match against top 3 away was a 3-0 loss to Bayern Munich. Against4th, 7th, and 8th, St Pauli have won their away matches.

6 matches on the trot were over 2.5 goals for St PAuli until the 1-0 win over Hamburg last match.

So we have a dilemma here. A home team , who concede rarely, have drawn their last 2 at home, against an away team who have not lost in 2011.

3pm - Birmingham v Sheff Wed - 1.71 home - FA Cup match - see the Chelsea match re doing research here

3pm - Livingston v Stenhousemuir - 1.34 home - 5 wins on the trot v 4 losses away , hence the short price on Livingston. Another match today where top play bottom ( see below!!)

3pm - Preston v QPR - 1.83 away - bottom v top and I suppose the 1.83 acknowledges that QPR are away. Last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals in head to heads. QPR have scored 4,2,3 in the last 3 head to heads winning 2 and drawing 1.

Only 3 wins at home for Preston includes 2 1-0's and are against bottom 11 sides.

LLDWLLDL at home for Preston really is dire recent form. 3 of the last 4 home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Preston have lost to QPR already this season.

3 losses only this season for QPR came in a pocket of 5 games between 10th December and 1st January. No defeat in 7 for QPR.Away losses for QPR have come against 3rd and 6th in the league, so a lay of Preston might work today, covering the draw?

0-0, 0-0, 0-1 for QPR last 3 away matches is some cause for concern as regards goals but again will be covered in a lay of Preston.

3pm - SV Ried v LASK Linz - 1.42 home -Yet another match featuring top v bottom but this is a league of only 10 teams. I think there are better options today than to focus on a 10 team league.

3pm - Stoke v Brighton - 1.68 home -FA Cup and my first reaction was that the 1.68 looks big for Stoke,considering they are at home to lower league opponents. The price may account for a weakened side?

3pm - Swansea v Doncaster - 1.56 home - a win could take Swansea 2nd ()dependent on other results) so plenty to play for at home.

5th v 16th - Last 3 head to heads have been 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and must be taken into account. Doncaster are possible bogey teams.

LWLDWWWL in recent home matches for Swansea - only 3 losses at home and latest was against 2nd in the league.

27% of Swansea's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Doncaster away have 7 and drawn 2 against top 15 sides which augurs well for Swansea, but the head to heads might point at a lay of Donny to cover the draw or a neutral goals bet. Watch out for the last half hour - DOncaster have conceded a massive 30 goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches. Stick that in your trading notebook if it's a draw or Doncaster are leading coming up to the 60th minute.

315pm - The New Saints v Port Talbot - 1.23 home - New Saints have won the last 3 head to heads in the league. This match is likely to be illiquid and so it is better focussing elsewhere.

445pm - FC Zurich v St Gallen - 1.33 home - 3rd v bottom but another league of 10 teams. Zurich will go 2nd with a win ( dependent on other scores) St Gallen have conceded 7 in their last 2 since the return from the Xmas break and it is St Gallen's weaknesses , rather than Zurich's current form, which should produce a home win.

5pm - Galatasaray v Bucaspor - 1.47 home - 1-0 in away match this season to gala

10th against 15th and gala are usually in the top 3. No draw in 8 and no draw in 10 at home for Galatasary. Can we trust a team in obviously poor form this season .WLWLLLWW at home recently for Galatasary. No draw at home for Galatasary.LWLWWLWL in recent matches for Gal.

galatasary are so short because Bucaspor are so poor away from home, losing all matches to top 6 teams and outside the top 6, losing to 11th, 14th, and drawing against the bottom 3.

LLDLLLLLL away for Bucaspor .

73% of away matches have been under 2.5 goals.

This looks a match where opposing Bucaspor is the call, but faith in an obviously poorly out for form Galatasary ( 10th in the league when normally it is them and Fenerbahce for the title)

Bucaspor have won 2 of their last 3 matches, but those were at home and against bottom 3 sides .

5pm - Valencia v Gijon - 1.54 home - 3rd v 16th and no realistic way that Valencia can catch up with Real Madrid. +18 plays -8 goal difference.Valencia are undefeated in 9 matches, and undefeated in 8 at home. 7 wins in last 8 matches for Valencia.2,2,3,2,2,4,2 scored by Valencia in their last 7 home matches. Valencia have scored in all of their home matches this season.

They have kept clean sheets in only 33% of their home matches so may be vulnerable. 2 draws and 2 wins against bottom 4 at home, and Gijon are 5th from bottom.

Gijon performed well against Barcelona last week and showed their defensive strengths.

2-0 win already away at Gijon this season .

Gijon have not won any of the 9 matches home and away against top 7 sides ( Valencia are 3rd) only 4 matches away against top 7 saw 2 3-0 and 2 1-0 losses.

Only one win was away at Mallorca for Gijon so we should expect a loss or draw this evening.DDLDWWWLD in Gijon's recent matches home and away - 2 losses in last 9 is good form - only kept one clean sheet away from home.

515pm - Man Utd v Crawley Town - 1.12 homeFFA Cup and 1.12 quote should have us looking for an enhanced bet with either a goals bet or a halftime/fulltime United/United bet. 1.12 signals around 3 or 4 for United themselves.

530pm - Kavala v Panserraikos - 1.44 home -4th v bottom , hence the short price. - typically Greek head to heads and 2 1-0 wins for panserraikos. Panseraikos tend to be involved away in some tight Greek-like matches so I will leave this match alone. You could lay kavala at ultra short odds and hope for a tight typically Greek match.

6pm - Auxerre v Arles - 1.43 home - 17th against 20th - both in poor form obviously. 8 out of Auxerre's last 12 matches have amazingly been 1-1 draws. Last 3 home matches have been 1-1 draws. This is really why Auxerre are where they are, they are dropping 2 points with each draw.

7 draws in 11 for Auxerre at home. Auxerre have not won a match in 10 matches. 4-0 Auxerre win at Arles earlier in the season.Arles have only one win all season, and have lost 9 and drawn 2 away.LLDLDLLLL away recently. You would suspect this 1-1 draw sequence will end today for Auxerre?

Arles have not played any of the bottom 7 away so we cannot gauge how they get on away, if there is any pattern.

11 goals only scored all season for Arles, 6 in the first half and 5 in the 2nd half.

Probability wise, then, Auxerre should be the team to score if a goal arrives?

7pm - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.15 home - 5 point gap thanks to Barca's slip up against Gijon and Real must win this evening to temporarily close the gap again. You know Mourinho's record at home in the league - this will be either a win or a draw. 1.15 indicates a win by 2 or 3 goals. 3 1-0's in their last 4 matches for Real hint at struggling. 11 wins at home and only 55% of matches are over 2.5 goals. Head to heads with Levante was 0-0.

Levante have lost 6 of their 7 matches against top 12 teams away from home. But Levante did beat Villareal at home which is quite something and that came in their last 3 matches which saw 3 wins in a row, a 2-0 and 2 1-0's.

Only 2 wins away for Levante were 1-0's and that could be an insurance bet if you remain unconvinced by this inconsistent Real side,

8 games without a draw for Levante should result then in a home win for Real by default?

745pm - Inter v Cagliari - 1.45 home - Inter can go 2nd with a win, albeit dependent on Napoli's result.

Inter have won the last 3 head to heads, and at Inter in head to heads,WDW for Inter.

WWWWWW at home last 6 for Inter Milan, solid form - 5,3,4,3,3,5 scored at home in those 6 matches. Ultra consistent goal scoring.

No draw in 14 matches for Inter . 8 wins in last 10 matches

12 of Inter's last 13 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Interestingly, 6 of Calgiari's last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals so a goals bet looks good now?

No draw in 15 matches for Calgliari matches that of Inter. Will these sequences end or can we rely on a lay the draw today?

Most of the points away have been earned outside the top 10 for Calgliari. 4 losses and a draw against top 10 away for calgliari.

DWLLWDW away recently for Calgliari may point to a neutral goals bet as it is good form.

120 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Problema Tic, 9/4 Sonofvic, 11/4 Tornado Bob, 8/1 Synthe Davis, 20/1 Smart Freddy, 25/1 Suburban Bay, 33/1 Carabinier, 40/1 The White Admiral.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although a couple of the others are not entirely dismissed, the top three look particularly promising. It is hard to weigh up just how much each can find now that they face a much sterner test but TORNADO BOB may just have the edge over Problema Tic and Sonofvic.[Richard Austen]

8 runners, 3 places and 4 under 16/1 makes this a great place only race - check out the wins between the top 3 -consistent animals who should ensure a clear round.

150 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 The Minack, 6/4 Master Of The Hall, 10/1 Billie Magern, 16/1 Teddy´s Reflection.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In another Nicholls-Henderson head to head, this should be between THE MINACK and Master Of The Hall who both figure at about 33-1 in betting for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. The latter is the one who's shown he stays 3m, when winning at Huntingdon last month, but it will be a big surprise if The Minack does not prove his stamina very soon and he may well emerge on top.[Richard Austen]

2 under 14/1 and a chase over 3 miles. No ground concerns and 2 horses heading for Cheltenham who ideally should be trusted to complete.

405 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Sprinter Sacre, 9/2 Polisky, 12/1 L´eminence Grise, 14/1 Milgen Bay, 16/1 Soleil D´avril, 20/1 Di Kaprio, 40/1 Faith Keeper, 66/1 Eldred, 100/1 Smart Catch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Polisky is an interesting French import but will need to be smart to undermine SPRINTER SACRE's Cheltenham prospects. L'Eminence Grise makes some appeal each-way.[Frank Carter]

9 runners, 3 places and only 2 under 12/1 and 3 under 25/1 -obviously Polisky , as 2nd fav, is the value alternative to the hot pot.

340 GOWRAN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dunguib, 13/8 Luska Lad, 13/2 Gimli´s Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It all went horribly wrong for DUNGUIB when things got really serious last season, and we may not learm much from a tactical affair, but he will have to win here for the Champion Hurdle to be seriously entertained. He is taken to confirm his past bumper superiority with Luska Lad. [Alan Sweetman]

We can afford really to leave heavy ground venues like Gowran alone, but Dunguib caught my eye - a real winning machine but last 2 races have shown a chink. 3 horses and 2 places, you would expect him to place surely here with a clear round?

210 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Court In Motion, 6/1 Carpincho, 6/1 Lively Baron, 8/1 Rose Of The Moon, 14/1 Rudanphast, 16/1Neptune Equester, 25/1 Back In Focus, 33/1 Atouchbetweenacara.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given his trainer expects him to improve for the step up to 3m and he's happy as Larry on testing ground, it's hard to look beyond COURT IN MOTION, who propelled himself to Festival favouritism with his nonchalant wide-margin Warwick win from Neptune Equester. Rose Of The Moon is a threat on the first of his hurdling efforts behind Bobs Worth but not the second, while there's more to come from Lively Baron, though he's unproven on testing going.[Paul Johnson]

Heavy ground at Haydock tempers enthusiasm. Price gapper in a grade 2 must be respected here. Likes the ground, says Spotlight, which makes Court in motion a good placer?

220 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Baharat, 3/1 Old English, 3/1 Unex Goya, 12/1 Enriching, 20/1 Fog Cutter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Baharat has the visor on for the first time here and he remains capable of better. Headgear is also tried on Unex Goya after his Wolverhampton disappointment, but OLD ENGLISH could be the one to be with after an unlucky effort at Southwell last time.[Paul Smith]

Hampered last time out, can the Johnston/Fanning Old English gain compensation and at least place in a race which should involve just the 3 under 12/1

200 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sultan Fontenaille, 4/1 Tuskar Rock, 5/1 Lorum Leader, 13/2 Cashel Blue, 8/1 Double Dizzy, 8/1Hobb´s Dream, 10/1 Aconitum, 14/1 Theophrastus, 16/1 Little Eaglet.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SULTAN FONTENAILLE (nap) has been rejuvenated since joining David Pipe's stable and followed his reappearance success with a narrow defeat over a trip that was on the sharp side. The return to further looks ideal and his new yard may well get more out of him. Possible dangers include Tuskar Rock and Cashel Blue.[Steven Boow]

Sultan has been spanked into 4/5 with next best in the betting forecast at 6/1 - bookies running scared?

520 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Smad Place, 9/2 Jump City, 13/2 Rajeeva, 10/1 Hawkaller, 28/1 Admission, 33/1 History Lesson, 33/1Rare Symphony, 40/1 Aragall, 40/1 Rageon, 40/1 Sanctuary, 66/1 Fran´s Folly, 66/1 Salto Des Mottes, 100/1 Haydens Mount, 100/1 Tenitemsplustoast, 100/1 Victory Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that lacks strength in depth and the 147-rated SMAD PLACE, who still has Triumph Hurdle aspirations, sets a clear standard. Hurdling debutants Jump City and Rajeeva have both shown ability on the Flat in France and need to be monitored in the betting.[Steven Boow]

Thornton/King are dependable but 1/4 about a novice hurdler? Hmm. Only 4 under 25/1 here means that each way value alternatives are readily available - look at the 3 others under 25/1

SHORTLIST
2pm - Siena v Piacenza - 1.48 home - how seriously do we take the 3 0-0 draws in the last 4 for Siena, coupled with the 5 draws in their last 7 matches for Piacenza away. Siena should not lose at any rate, but trust them to win? Head to head was only 1-0 win, typically Italian!

230pm - Dortmund v St Pauli - 1.33 home - kneejerk reaction is that this is a home win all day long, but delving deeper, we see a St Pauli side unbeaten in 2011 with 2 draws and 4 wins. Dortmund have a superb defence and , if remaining tight, could score. Perhaps back Dortmund and a 0-0 cover incase St PAuli perform as they did against Hamburg

3pm - Preston v QPR - 1.83 away - Preston are poor at home of late, but QPR have 3 0-0's and a 1-0 win away in last 4. QPR may be worth backing along with 0-0 insurance cover.

445pm - FC Zurich v St Gallen - 1.33 home - 1.19 over 1.5 goals is a neutral bet and accounts for St Gallen conceding 7 in their last 2 matches.

5pm - Galatasaray v Bucaspor - 1.47 home - Bucaspor layable based on their away record .

515pm - Man Utd v Crawley Town - 1.12 home - only possible readable FA Cup match should see a comfortable afternoon and a crushing of Crawley's dreams - +2.5 goal handicap for Crawley. 1.52 halftime/fulltime really is enticing for Man Utd.

1.48 over 2.5 goals is tempting too. 1.12 usually signals a 3+ goal scoreline for the home team.

6pm - Auxerre v Arles - 1.43 home - do you trust a team in 17th place in the French league? Perhaps,when they are playing a team as out of their depth as Arles. Arles have only one win all season . Concern with the amount of 1-1 draws for Auxerre but this is a trend that is priced to end against the right opponents. Arles have only scored 11 goals all season so this might be the stat that turns a 1-0 Auxerre scoreline into a win rather than another 1-1!

7pm - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.15 home - looks layable early on this evening given 0-0 with Levante away. No, I'm not saying Real will lose, I am hinting that maybe Levante will frustrate for a sufficiently long time for traders to see a rise in the 1.15 odds.

This should be a home win with Mourinho's record , and the fact Levante have not had a draw in 8 should hint at this. But in the back of my mind, I see a potentially frustrating evening.

745pm - Inter v Cagliari - 1.45 home - is it too obvious to go with a goals bet here? 1.26 over 1.5 goals and 1.75 over 2.5 goals is surprisingly big considering the following

• 5,3,4,3,3,5 scored at home in 6 matches by Inter.
• 12 of Inter's last 13 matches have been over 2.5 goals
• 6 of Calgiari's last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals

Another standout here is no draw in 14 for Inter and no draw in 15 for Calgliari. Lay the draw at 4.7 and hope these sequences are not broken today.

120 ASCOT - a superb place only race and I would default here to Tornado Bob at 1.29 to place - only 4 under 18/1 will hopefully dominate but this is a high class race .

150 ASCOT - 2 are under 14/1 here and should dominate this chase, The Minack at 1.26 to place and Master of the Hall at 1.29 in an illiquidplace market at present.

405 ACOT - Sprinter Sacre the obvious candidate in this race where only 2 are under 14/1 but surely the value is in Polisky at 1.33 to place, the only other horse under 14/1

210 HAYDOCK - Court in motion is 1.12 to place and a huge price gapper who should relish heavy ground ( I normally avoid heavy)

200 WINCANTON - Sultan Fontenaille is a market mover - if following the market, the 1.33 to place looks tempting

520 WINCANTON - Smad Place at 1.28 to win looks solid. An ideal race for each way speculation though.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

230pm - Dortmund v St Pauli - 1.33 home - perhaps back Dortmund to score the next goal( but illiquid) Back Dortmund in match odds market then, with a 0-0 insurance cover - surely St Pauli cannot pull off another shock away win.

445pm - FC Zurich v St Gallen - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks a good call if the away side continue conceding ( 4 and 3 conceded last 2 matches)

515pm - Man Utd v Crawley Town - 1.12 home - this should be a massacre - over 2.5 goals is a huge 1.48 . Yes, this is the FA Cup and that is a worry as the unpredictability will enter the equation. 1.12 signals usually a 3 goal win - Betfair puts up a +2.5 Crawley goal handicap market and correct score 2 market so I am sure we can get something out of over 2.5 goals.

745pm - Inter v Cagliari - 1.45 home - 1.26 over 1.5 goals looks a steal if the recent over 2.5 goals form and goalscoring form at home of Inter are replicated again today.

120 ASCOT - looks an ideal place race with Tornado Bob 1.26 to place. 4 only under 18/1 , we are playing the probabilities and hoping for a clear round too.

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