18/2

One of those days with plenty of potential and I must make sure I do not fall flat on my face by choosing the wrong selection.

Football wise, Waalwijk's match looks the safest for over 1.5 goals at 1.15 .

Dare we enter 1.5 territory? Lyon are 6/6 against nancy and have home advantage

Horse racing wise, and the one that sticks out is Pere Blanc, ahead of the handicapper and nearest market rival a non runner.

*****ONE A DAY - Lyon v Nancy - back Lyon in the match odds at 1.53***** I am going in again at bigger odds than usual. Why? Lyon 6/6 in head to heads. Nancy against top 10 have lost 10, won 2 and drawn 1 , LLWLLL against top 10 away . Please do consider trading if Lyon lead at any stage. I fully realise that going in at 1.5 and over too often will result in more losses.

For those who want an easier shout, then at around 1.15 Pere Blanc( clear round required) and waalwijk over 1.5 goals are more traditional one a dayers.

I was all ready to write the obituary " shouldn't have got involved in Europa League, Benfica poor record against German sides" etc after Stuttgart took the lead, but the standout stats ensured Benfica scored and won 2-1 eventually. And Benfica were trading as high as 7 for any lucky bar stewards who got involved after they went 1-0 down!

12pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.28 away - WDWDWD in favour of Helsinki in the head to heads ( a couple of matches were friendlies) Helsinki have scored 3 against Haka on 3 occasions in their 2009 and 2010 meetings. Both teams have been engaged in league cup and friendlies for their last few matches - I suppose to account for the Winter Break? This makes analysis difficult.

But remember I mentioned Helsinki have scored 3 on 3 recent occasions against Haka, well in Haka's recent matches they have conceded 4,3 and 4 goals so there seems to be a air of vulnerability against the right opponents.

October saw the last league match.

Difficult to weigh up this match suffice to say the market expects Helsinki dominance.

7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Telstar - 1.52 home - 8th v 15th - always worth checking out these Dutch Juliper league matches incase I can find 2 teams who like goals ( to go along with the general trend for this league) - only one defeat at home for Sparta and against bottom 3 sides ( Telstar are 4th from bottom) the matches have been 3-3, 3-3 and 12-1 ( yes, 12-1) .

Sparta are more than capable of scoring bucketloads against the bottom sides. A fair warning for Telstar today.

In fact, against the bottom 7 sides at home, the scorelines have been 5-0, 4-1, 3-3, 3-3, 12-1

A compelling trend towards goals against bottom sides at home.

75% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals for Sparta. They have scored in all of their home matches this season, and you would expect that trend to continue against another bottom 7 side this evening.

Only one of Sparta's 11 home matches have seen them keep a clean sheet, so they can score at home but they are also vulnerable at home.

WDWDDDDWL recent home record with all draws being score draws.

Sparta's last 6 matches have all seen over 2.5 goals, in fact 8 out of the last 10 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

So we have a team who are trending towards over 2.5 goals in a league where the goals average per game is nearly 3.5 goals.

Not in running alas but over 2.5 goals is 1.53

The league is split in 2 when Telstar play away from home. They are unbeaten away against bottom 7 sides, but have lost 5 and drawn 1 against top 7 sides away.

Sparta are 8th.

Slight concern with the 1-0 head to head early in the season, but have Sparta turned a corner?

7pm - Waalwijk v Emmen - 1.34 home - IN PLAY - 2nd v 12th - only 3 losses at home for Waalwijk sounds impressive until we learn that these came in the last 6 home matches. A sign of decline? These losses came against 9th, 10th and 17th in the league, so are spread throughout the league. I would be less surprised if the wins came, for instance, from the top 5 .

WLWLWLW at home in last 7 matches No draw in 8 home matches. No draw in 11 matches so far.

73% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals, but check out recent scorelines (home and away) - 0-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0

Yes the 1-0 scorelines ended eventually, but they are recent and they are a concern.

Waalwijk lost to Emmen 2-1 away earlier in the season.

There is a block of 8th,9th and 10th in the league in which Waalwijk have struggled at home ( emmen are 12th)

LWLWWLWWL recent form for Waalwijk.

For Emmen away , it's a "game of 3 halves, Jeff" Well, 3 1/3rds of course Away to the top 3rd it's WWDD. Away to the middle 1/3rd it's LLLL, and away to the bottom 1/3rd it's DWD.

Now Waalwijk are 3rd, and against 1st and 3rd away, Emmen have won 3-4 and 3-1, which suggests a nice neutral goals bet this evening , and even a lay of Waalwijk at 1.34 given this and also the fact all home losses have come in their last 6 home matches.

DWDWLL away recently for Emmen, the 2 losses were 1-0 losses. IS this ultra short price for Waalwijk a reaction to Emmen losing 4-0 at home to Cambuur last week?

Emmen have conceded in every single match they have played home and away which is again compelling evidence for looking at the goals markets ( Incase they spring a surprise having already beaten 1st and 3rd away)

745pm - Leicester v Bristol City - 1.46 home - Draw, Bristol away win, Draw, Bristol home win in recent head to heads, and you want me to back, erm, Leicester at 1.46? I suppose it could be something to do with recent form. Undefeated in 7, they are undefeated in their last 11 at home. But are Bristol a bogey side?

WDWDWWWDWWW at home recently is superb.Leicester have scored 5,2,2,4,4 in their last 5 home matches.

Leicester have won 6 and drawn 1 of their 7 2011 matches.

Leicester score most in the first 1/4 hour and last 1/2 hour of their matches, but concede with regularity throughout the 90 minutes.

Leicester have scored in all 2011 matches.

Apart from an anomolous 1-0 win away to Swansea, Bristol's away wins have come against bottom 4 sides away.

LLLDDLW away for Bristol recently, culminated in a 4-0 away win v Preston. Preston are the bottom side.

WDLDLLWL for Bristol in 2011 in stark contrast to Leicester.

My concern here in this match is the head to heads which show a distinct pattern i.e. Bristol are holding their own when they meet Leicester.

745pm - Lyon v Nancy - 1.52 home - contrast the head to heads in the above match with those in this match - a clean sweep of 6 victories for Lyon in their last 6 head to heads. So tight is the head of the French league that a win will take 4th placed Lyon into 2nd place.

Lyon have scored a minimum of 2 in last 6 meetings with Nancy, scoring 3 on 3 occasions.

Lyon have only lost one of their last 16 matches, and that was away at Valenciennes.

WWWDWDWD at home latest and the draws are creeping in intermittently. All score draws mind you which brings in a possible goals trade/bet.

Only 33% of Lyon's home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

nancy seem to struggle home and away to top 10 sides . 10 losses, 2 wins and a draw against top 10 home and away.

Away to top 10 sides, it's LLWLLL - the win against Montpellier came back in September 2010

LWLDLLL away for Nancy - have not won away in last 5 matches, 3 losses on the trot.

nancy concede 70% of goals in the 2nd half , so traders be aware if it is a quiet first half.

WWLLLLW recent performance for nancy - no draws in sight.

Odds of 1.5 or over always recount that the market expects a win , but eventually, after some struggle ( note Benfica yesterday was 1.53 and they conceded first)

745pm - Utrecht v Heracles - 1.53 home - 8th v 13th and another niggly 1.5 ish quote. Heracles have won 2 and drawn 2 of the last 4 head to heads , hence , I suppose, the 1.53 quote?

Utrecht at home have only lost to PSV ( league leaders) and since that loss have won 3 and drawn 1 ( that draw was against 2nd placed Twente)

Utrecht, therefore, look capable at home against those outside the upper echelons of the League.

They have won 7 and drawn 1 at home outside the top 2, including an excellent 3-0 win over 3rd placed Ajax.

WDLWLWWDDD for Utrecht recently home and away, unbeaten in 5 .

Utrecht have scored 16 goals in the first halfhour of their matches - a great stat and they have scored 12 in the last 1/4 hour, so watch out for a crash bang wallop at the beginning and end of their matches.

Utrecht have scored in all of their home matches this season, and 80% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Heracles have lost 10 and drawn 2 matches away from home. DLLLLDL away recently.

They have not kept a clean sheet away all season ( add that to the fact Utrecht have scored in all home matches this season, and hey presto, we have at least one goal!)

5,5,3,2,4,3 conceded by Heracles away to top 9 sides, naturally losing the lot. Remember that Utrecht are 8th, and also remember those niggly head to heads where Heracles won 2 and drawn 2 of last 4.

200 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Promising Anshan, 4/1 Springfield Raki, 7/1 Nodforms Paula, 14/1 Kitley Hassle, 25/1 Hommage A Bach, 100/1 Rester Vrai.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PROMISING ANSHAN has been found an excellent opportunity to break his duck over fences and should collect. Springfield Raki looks the one for the forecast. [Dave Orton]

Oh the temptation of red hot favs in beginners chases. Promising Anshan has had 3 chase runs, running well on each occasion, comes from the mighty Nicholls stable, and should place with a clear round.

415 FAKENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Massini Man, 11/2 Rash Move, 7/1 Parrain, 8/1 Jump Jet, 12/1 Va Vavoom, 16/1 Leo Mcgarry, 20/1 Which Pocket, 40/1 Caged Tiger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASSINI MAN (nap) returns to hunter chasing in the form of his life and barring accidents should land the hat-trick. Rash Move can give him most to do. [Dave Orton]

Perhaps I shouldn't be so dsimissive of hunter chases as, to my recollection, all mentions this week have placed, and mostly won. Here we have massini Man, and Rash Move is the big mover, into 5/2 .

And ideal place only race. 8 runners and 3 places, and only the 2 named horses are under 12/1 - obviously Rash Move is the value alternative and those words " with a clear round" should be resounding in your ears.

330 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ilissos, 11/4 Caravan Rolls On, 7/1 Westhaven, 10/1 Brilliant Barca, 14/1 Twilight Express, 20/1 Blaze On By, 20/1 Rapacious, 66/1 Elegant Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market suggested more was expected of Ilissos here last time and he may improve, whileWesthaven is another who is bred to do better. CARAVAN ROLLS ON should have more to come over middle distances though and gets the tentative nod.[Paul Smith]

george baker on an all weather favourite always exudes confidence. Only 3 under 12/1 here.

1245 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 What A Friend, 4/1 Fair Along, 5/1 Noland, 20/1 Carronhills, 20/1 Dance Island.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are questions for all of these to answer and although What A Friend sets the standard judged on chase form in recent seasons, he would be vulnerable giving this weight away if FAIR ALONG or Noland were to show something like their best.[Richard Austen]

Soft ground at Newbury. Only 3 under 16/1 should be considered for this chase ( with a fecking clear round - I bet you are sick of me repeating those words!) The shrewdies may see 2 Nicholls runners with McCoy on the bigger priced of the runners -looks a great each way shout?

300 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Aiteen Thirtythree, 3/1 Tarablaze, 8/1 Glenwood Knight, 10/1 Flight Leader.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AITEEN THIRTYTHREE has run only once over fences but looks a fine prospect and is taken to win this race as well, despite the presence of Tarablaze who will be suited by the step back up in trip.[Richard Austen]

Only 3 under 20/1 here for this novices chase. An absence and lack of experience to overcome for Aiteen Thirtythree.

335 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ericht, 9/4 Balding Banker, 13/2 Bygones In Brid, 13/2 Peckhamecho, 9/1 Jumps Road, 14/1 Divine Folly, 14/1 Oscar Flyer, 33/1 Street Dance, 33/1 Sunny Ledgend.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Highly rated Bygones In Brid bids to crown what has been a good week for owner Harry Redknapp but this is a far cry from the race he won on his debut. ERICHT also has more to do than when successful but he and Balding Bankermay be the ones to concentrate on.[Frank Carter]

Ericht is a name I remember as he may have been a previous one a dayer. One of only 4 under 12/1.

210 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Massena, 15/8 Head Hunted, 5/1 Kayaan, 8/1 Kayef, 8/1 Ostentation, 25/1 Lucky Breeze, 25/1Mountrath, 66/1 Terra Bleu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASSENA, one of only two runners with an entry in the Triumph Hurdle (the other being Kayef), was purchased by current connections for six figures after showing plenty of promise behind a subsequent winner at Auteuil last October and he's a very interesting contender on his British debut. Positive market signals would be significant. Head Hunted looks the pick of the remainder.[Steven Boow]

Only 4 under 12/1 and 5 under 25/1 should dominate here. Trust the reputation of Massena?

355 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Megastar, 15/8 Lifestyle, 11/2 Topolski, 40/1 Benozzo Gozzoli, 40/1 Mighty Monty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is a slight suspicion that MEGASTAR ideally wants better ground but he still showed smart form when runner-up in the Tolworth here on heavy going last month and he's very much the one to beat back down in class. Lifestyleis the only realistic danger, unless fairly useful Flat handicapper Topolski shows himself well above average on his first attempt over hurdles.[Steven Boow]

Only 3 under 50/1 for 2 places - pure probability race.

430 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pere Blanc, 3/1 Arrayan, 13/2 Doctor Foxtrot, 13/2 Grey Wulff, 12/1 Baile Anrai, 12/1 Ultravox, 16/1 Kahfre, 25/1 Folie A Deux.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PERE BLANC (nap) was impressive when making a successful handicap debut at Kempton last Friday and should take plenty of beating turned out quickly under a penalty. Arrayan, unfortunate not to have completed a hat-trick at Taunton last time, is also ahead of the assessor and may prove the main danger if his stamina holds out.[Steven Boow]

4/6 - - - 5/1 in the betting and with the 2nd fav a non runner, this looks a great opportunity for Pere Blanc to place in a smaller field.

600 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cotton King, 7/2 Leyte Gulf, 8/1 Amical Risks, 10/1 Chocolate Caramel, 12/1 Ergo, 14/1 Aureate, 20/1Juwireya, 50/1 Carlton Mac, 50/1 Ebony Shades.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these are hard to win with, especially the frustrating Leyte Gulf, and COTTON KING (nap) has an obvious chance of following up under a penalty.[Graham Wheldon]

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap and as you know they tend to run well. Negatives? Unreliable class of race.

735 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Syrian, 5/2 Faithful Ruler, 11/2 Ahlawy, 7/1 Dream Of Fortune, 16/1 Countess Salome.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the very capable SYRIAN, who's found his niche at this level on AW and can uphold recent course form with Faithful Ruler.[Ben Osborne]

Frank Spencer returns - eye catching booking on " hard to look beyond" Syrian. 2 places should ensure a good place only price.

620 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 River Jetez, 5/2 Strawberrydaiquiri, 7/2 Aspectoflove, 10/1 Reem, 14/1 Long Lashes, 16/1 Gallic Star, 20/1 Lolamar, 33/1 Forest Crown, 66/1 Anam Chara, 66/1 Kinky Afro, 66/1 Tinaar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several that ran in the Cape Verdi reappear here and it's a fair bet that luckless RIVER JETEZ, third to the ultra-consistent Aspectoflove, can reverse placings over this much more suitable trip on these more favourable terms. This proven Grade 1 performer in South Africa should get a better gallop to aim at and is taken to beat Strawberrydaiquiri, who has the highest rating of these and will go very close for new connections if she retains all the ability she showed last year for Sir Michael Stoute. [Richard Young]

Currently evens this River Jetez in a high class race where only 4 are under 16/1

SHORTLIST

7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Telstar - 1.52 home - 25 goals in the 3 matches involving Sparta and bottom 3 sides at home ( telstar are 4th from bottom) - not in play so probably will not be a one a day alas.

7pm - Waalwijk v Emmen - 1.34 home - Emmen amazingly have a 100% away win record against top 3 sides. They are playing 2nd today. I would , then, consider laying Waalwijk or backing over 1.5 goals at 1.15. Emmen have conceded in all matches in the league this season.

745pm - Leicester v Bristol City - 1.46 home - Leicester look all over the winners this evening until we learn that Bristol City are 2 wins and 2 draws in last 4 head to heads.

745pm - Lyon v Nancy - 1.52 home - 1.34 over 1.5 goals is very big considering the head to heads. Speaking of H2H, Lyon are 6/6 against nancy. I suppose that is down to the fact 2/3rd of home matches were under 2.5 goals. With 10 losses for Nancy against top 7 sides, this looks ominous for the away side. Dare we venture again into 1.5 territory?

745pm - Utrecht v Heracles - 1.53 home - Utrecht have scored in all home matches and Heracles have conceded in all away matches this season. Another match with worrisome head to heads. 1.24 over 1.5 goals to keep the goalscoring/conceding stats going this evening?

200 FAKENHAM - resounding vote of confidence in the place market for Promising Anshan, into 1.14 to place - 2 places in a beginners chase, but he has run in recent chase races.

415 FAKENHAM - I have been all too dismissive of favourites in hunter chases of late - Massini Man ( 1.24 to place) and Rash Move( 1.35) could dominate this one.

330 LINGFIELD - potential probability race - 3 horses under 16/1 in the betting forecast with Illisos having the superb George Baker to help . 1.1 to place and an illiquid market. Caravan Rolls on the value alternative at 1.3 to place?

210 SANDOWN - the lesser of the obstacles means that Massena could be good to place? 1.32 to place - perhaps it is Headhunted though who has crept into favouratism at 1.22 to place.

430 SANDOWN - 2nd fav out and price gapper Pere Blanc is a reasonable 1.16 to place - well ahead of the handicapper ( like Martin Scruff) and nearest market rival out

620 MEYDAN - River jetez looks primed to place - a very illiquid market though at present.

The Wolves races need market consultation nearer the off.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

7pm - Waalwijk v Emmen - 1.34 home - it's a worryingly good away record for Emmen against top 3 so 1.15 over 1.5 goals looks the call here.

745pm - Lyon v Nancy - 1.52 home - Lyon are 6 out of 6 against Nancy in head to heads. Compelling enough to back them at 1.52 at home ( I would consider trading if they lead at any stage) - although only 1/3rd of Lyon's home matches have been over 2.5 goals, their head to heads have easily seen over 1.5 goals - 1.34 is a good price in that regard

745pm - Utrecht v Heracles - 1.53 home - home team have scored in all home matches and away team have conceded in all away matches, ergo over 1.5 goals at 1.24?

330 LINGFIELD - Illosos or Caravan rolls on in a great probability race.

430 SANDOWN - Pere Blanc is ahead of the handicapper and missing 2nd fav which should make it far easier for him to place. 1.16 is a good place only price in the circumstances.

620 MEYDAN - River jetez just looks like he has a great place chance, with luck in running. Only 3 under 12/1 but a high class race so opponents no mugs, at whatever price.