17/2

How do you solve a problem like the Europa League? I cannot fathom any of the games today bar the Benfica v Stuttgart match. I am thinking about taking a chance on Benfica upholding their strong form domestically. Stuttgart have domestic survival at the forefront of their minds and I think must prioritise that rather than the Europa league. Benfica's record against German opposition is poor though.

Horse racing wise, Kerada appeals greatly here in a 4 horse race, 2 places, 2 only under 14/1 but another novices chase. Remember Chamirey? Similar race, similar profile and he fluffed his lines.

Kerada has won his last 2 chase races

Peddlars Cross should win very easily. 1.16 reasonable enough.

So do I take a risk with a bigger price relatively speaking, or the seeming better probability Kerada and Peddlars Cross.

*****ONE A DAY 6pm Benfica v Stuttgart - back Benfica in the match odds at 1.53. Try to trade out if Benfica score first or lead at any stage*****

Stuttgart have conceded in all away matches domestically and Benfica have scored in all domestic home matches, I see them scoring first here.

I hope that I do not fall victim to the fact I am betting in a one off affair really where domestic league form may not be relevant.

I only hope Stuttgart have prioritised the Bundesliga survival above Europa League, and Benfica can exploit this.

1 length 2nd for Martin Scruff and I used Betfair SP which paid 1.29 which was excellent. No fear of lack of goals for Barca and Arsenal.

12pm - Rubin Kazan v Twente - Twente are renowned for goals -will they convert in the Europa League? I really have no opinion on this match and think it better to focus on Benfica today amongst the Europa league matches.

6pm - Anderlecht v Ajax - 2 dominant forces in their domestic leagues but, again, will they transfer their strong goal scoring trends to this Europa League format. 1-1 and 3-1 Anderlecht away win in 2009 -they have history. So hard to get an angle into these matches though.

6pm - Benfica v Stuttgart - 1.53 home - quite short price but a signal that the market makers respect the red hot domestiv form of Benfica. A side who have not had a draw in the league this season. From the Racing Post, Stuttgart have more pressing matters, it would seem, domestically. Bundesliga drop zone for Stuttgart and facing a Benfica side I know only too well having researched them often this season.No draw in 19 - current winning streak of 9 at home, with 6 of last 9 matches being over 2.5 goals ( the other 3 were 2 2-0 wins and a 1-0 win) .

Benfica have scored in all home league matches this season. Benfica have scored first in 80% of their matches this season. Loss by Schalke at home in the Champions League the only real abberation at home for Benfica.

Quite obviously they are in red hot form but does that mean domestic dominace is transferable in this unique Europa League format against a side they have not met before ( could be all sorts of suprises and Stuttgart may, by happenstance, just be the kind of team who Benfica cannot play against?)

17th out of 18 in the Bundesliga , and like Wigan in yesterday's FA Cup, priorities for Stuttgart lay elsewhere. The Europa League will not bring in the money - Bundesliga survival will!

DLDLLDW away for Stuttgart recently in the league. Their goal concession rate is evenly spread throughout the 90 minutes which signals a weak defence ( some teams you'll see concede late mostly etc, but here Stuttgart concede throughout)

Away from home in the Bundesliga, Stuttgart have kept NO cleansheets. So, Benfica have scored in all home league fixtures and Stuttgart have conceded in all away league fixtures - VERY INTERESTING!!!

In Stuttgart's domestic matches, the opponents score first 70% of the time.

Only 1 win away for Stuttgart .

805pm - Lille v PSV - another team, PSV, known for goals domestically. No defeat in 7 at home for Lille, winning 6 of those matches. Flying high at the top of the league in a tight competitive battle for domestic honours. 13 matches without a defeat and facing a PSV side in similar form PSV have only lost 3 all season and have ageneral 70% over 2.5 goals average home and away. One off matches though -can they transfer these exploits to another team in another country?

945pm - Gremio v Oriente Petrolero - 1.21 home - Copa Libertadores sees Brazil v Bolivia. And it is a case of trusting the odds here as we face another match in which 2 teams rarely meet.

Liverpool are also playing this evening but all of the matches in the Europa League , bar Benfica, seem to be tight affairs judged by the betting.

Heavy ground at Clonmel tempers enthusiasm.

340 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kerada, 5/2 Quo Video, 10/1 Princeful, 10/1 Simarian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the going arguably on the soft side for Quo Video, Simarian looking out of sorts of late and his stable companion Princeful coming back from a layoff this looks an obvious opportunity for KERADA (nap) to make it three out of three over fences.[Frank Carter]

Soft ground at Ffos Las. I hope it does not deteriorate. Kerada is obviously suited and proven over chase fences, winning his last 2, has the able assistance of Barry Geraghty and could make it 3 out of 3. Failing that, he should have a good chance of placing with a clear round in a race where there are 4 horses for 2 places.

450 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Flemi Two Toes, 11/4 Roll The Dice, 7/1 Presenting Ace, 10/1 Pollystone, 10/1 Sir Johnson, 12/1Hawk Run, 14/1 Belle De Fontenay, 14/1 Special Mate, 20/1 All For Cash, 25/1 Act Of Kindness, 25/1 Moon Stream, 50/1 Knight Blaze, 100/1 Blue Bell House.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Roll The Dice made a pleasing debut at Warwick but he'll benefit from a step up in trip and is passed over in favour of FLEMI TWO TOES, who boasts the form and experience to take this.[Ben Osborne]

McCoy wins about 1/3rd of his races at this track, so when he is on a fav, one of only 2 under 7/1, then trust him to be competitive?

140 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Music Of The Moor, 9/4 Priceless Art, 5/1 Jukebox Melody, 11/2 Bogside, 11/1 Rumble Of Thunder, 14/1 Gin Cobbler, 14/1 Nisaal, 16/1 The Galloping Shoe, 33/1 Why Are You Asking, 50/1 Quel Elite, 66/1 Barello Road, 66/1Northern Acres, 100/1 Arikinui, 100/1 Saga Surprise, 200/1 Cigalas, 200/1 Daredevil Dan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRICELESS ART is held in such regard by his trainer that he's chosen even though he's unproven on the going. The fact he has a sibling who has won on soft and he himself is proven on Fibresand offers some hope he will cope with conditions. If he doesn't, the likeliest beneficiary is Triumph entry Music Of The Moor, who loves the soft.[Paul Johnson]

Do we take the confidence the trainer has re Priceless Art to heart? Market leader now and only one of 4 under 14/1, if he likes soft, he should be competitive.

Note Music of the Moor who apparently loves the ground and must be decent enough to earn a triumph entry.

350 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 1/6 Peddlers Cross, 12/1 Bygones Of Brid, 12/1 Hollins, 14/1 Orsippus, 14/1 Scriptwriter, 40/1 Bywell Beau, 66/1 Bucephalus, 100/1 Cassius, 150/1 Kempski.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All eyes on unbeaten PEDDLERS CROSS as he limbers up for his Champion Hurdle date with destiny. There is nothing to trouble him here assuming all is well with him and, after coping so magnificently with every question that has been asked of him so far, this would be no time for flaws to appear. Hollins looks the most interesting of his rivals.[Paul Johnson]

Standout performer but then so was Chamirey under today's pilot and he fell. Hurdles this time for Peddlars Cross , unbeaten so far. Looks an ideal each way speculative race though with Bygones of Brid and orsippus the 2 horses under 20/1 backable each way at 14/1 incase Peddlars succumbs ( I am expecting a comfortable afternoon - winning sequences do end , but today, and with Cheltenham so close?)

425 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Quotica De Poyans, 11/2 Rimsky, 6/1 General Striker, 8/1 Luksar, 14/1 Optimistic Harry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent opportunity for smart pointer QUOTICA DE POYANS, who jumped for fun en route to a demolition job when last seen here and, after a recent confidence-restoring success between the flags, should prove hard to catch.Rimsky may chase him home.[Ben Osborne]

Price gapper here although Rimsky is a little closer in the live betting. Only 2 places and a hunters chase.

150 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Jack´s Revenge, 9/2 Ace Master, 11/2 Three Opera Divas, 7/1 Reachforthebucks.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JACK'S REVENGE is hard to oppose under a penalty but a market move for the unexposedReachforthebucks would be worth noting.[Graeme North]

And as if by magic, the market move for Reach materialised and he is now strong 2nd fav/ nearly joint fav. 153 day absence and could be fancied on return.

435 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Steed, 3/1 Elhamri, 9/2 Smalljohn, 6/1 Ace Of Spies, 16/1 Buzz Bird, 16/1 Thunderball, 20/1 Gala Casino Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The double penalty makes things harder for STEED (nap) but he appeals once again seeing as this race seems sure to be run to suit. Smalljohn might be next best.[Graeme North]

Multiple handicap winners will lose eventually, but today?

800 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Black Pond, 2/1 Tagansky, 8/1 Freedom Flyer, 8/1 Rich And Reckless, 20/1 Osgoodisgood, 33/1 Bertie Blu Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All eyes will be on BLACK POND, a half-brother to last year's Belmont Stakes hero Drosselmeyer.Tagansky sets the standard he's aiming at on a mark of 70.[Graham Wheldon]

The money was down for the last Johnston newcomer on Southwell's fibresand and he did not even place. Here we have Black Pond in a race whose market will take shape a bit closer to 8pm

SHORTLIST

6pm - Benfica v Stuttgart - 1.53 home - the Europa League is a puzzle this evening and the only remotely clear(ish) cut match, betting wise, is this one. The biggest gap in prices and the shortest favourite out of the Europa League entrants this evening, Benfica are in scintillating domestic form and quite simply don't do draws!!.

Stuttgart are 17th of 18 and I rather get the feeling that they'll " do a Wigan" - concentrate on the league survival rather than tournament/cup competition.

Stuggart have conceded in all domestic away matches.

Benfica have scored in all domestic home matches.

Yes 2 teams from 2 different countries but a strong case can be made for Benfica this evening surely?

945pm - Gremio v Oriente Petrolero - 1.21 home - Copa Libertadores and faith in the market really - Brasil v Bolivia this evening.

340 FFOS LAS - 1.14 to place for Kerada in a race where it's 50/50 - 4 horses and 2 places. Proven chase form ( winning last 2 chase races) so no real question marks about jumping lapses.

140 KELSO - a very interesting race this one .Only 4 under 14/1 here and the front 2 , Priceless art and Jukebox melody are able bumper performers. Today, though , is their hurdling debut under race conditions. Music on the moors is 3rd favourite and has had those hurdles jumps. Is he the safer option incase the front 2 fluff their lines?

Do we trust in thetrainer's high regard for Priceless art? 1.41 for Price less art, and around 1.56 for 2nd and 3rd favs to place.

350 KELSO - 1.16 to win and 1.08 to place ( effectively taking a shorter priced insurance place on 2 extra places) - Peddlars Cross should win with Maguire sipping cocktails, if he is to be feared at Cheltenham.

Winning sequences always end - this guy is unbeaten - it will end soon, but today?

425 KELSO - price gapper in a 5 runner hunter chase , can Quotica justify favouratism? 1.28 to place and the only horse under evens in the place only market.

800 WOLVES - watch out for Black Pond this evening.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Yes I know it is not a road to riches backing in tournaments where there are no head to heads and teams are a mystery to each other, but here we face a Benfica side scoring for fun, on a superb unbeaten run domestically and without a draw all season. Back them at a nice 1.53 and home this domestic form translates against a German outfit, with home advantage.

Stuttgart just seem to have more than a Europa League title on their minds. They want Bundesliga survival. Back Benfica and ideally lay off if they score first or lead at any stage.

340 FFOS LAS - Kerada does appeal today -I know it is a novice chase but hey, this horse has won his last 2 and is one of 2 under 14/1 in a 4 horse race. 1.14 to place is perfectly reasonable with a clear round.

350 KELSO - faith in Peddlars Cross to win only? 1.16 the win, 1.08 the place. Proven in soft ground. Maguire fluffed his lines on Chamirey earlier in the week ( and note anyone who can follow the race, why not trade out early?)

Must win for Peddlars cross if he is to uphold his status at the Cheltenham Festival.

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