25/2

I get a feeling today that it's best to wait for the weekend. I would consider over 1.5 goals Cottbus and Frankfurt today as the 2.5 goals stats recently are so appealing. Also School for scandal to win perhaps in the 655 Wolves - when priced this short, Fanning/Johnston rarely let me down. As this is a maiden, we need to view the markets nearer to 7pm as compared with some 7 hours before the race - just common sense really.

***** 5pm - COTTBUS V FRANKFURT - back over 1.5 goals at 1.25*****

At the prices this is worth a shout today. Although Bundesliga 2, I would prefer a top league.

Those who feel the slight apprehension in today's message can wait for the stronger bets tomorrow and Sunday and just be patient. Re read the research on this one and you will understand why there is an argument for over 1.5 goals

Traders can trade out if an early goal.

I just had a feeling for Mr Dzecko yesterday after his near misses in Greece and the lad done tremendous and gave 110% for a comfortable City win.

1pm - HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn - 1.32 home - in play - clean sweep in head to heads for Helsinki in 2010. They scored 3 in last 2 matches against IFK so already look worthy of the 1.32 quote. This is Finnish Liiga Cup and I think we are still in the closed season for Finnish League football.

Both teams are in the same league which I normally don't like in Cup matches. I want to see a distinct gap in class like Notts County and Man City.

8 of Helsinki's last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals, although note these were friendlies and Liiga Cup matches.

IFK's last 3 matches were 1-0 results.

Not much we can really gauge from these stats bar the head to heads which are conclusively in Helsinki's favour.

5pm - Cottbus v FSV Frankfurt - 1.68 home - the first thing that strikes me is the goals. 9 out of Cottbus's last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

They average 2.27 goals scored and 1.09 conceded at home, yet only have a 55% home record of overs. It is the recent record though that is eyecatching.

Slight worry that the 2 matches which were not over 2.,5 goals were both home matches and both 0-0's

3-2 in head to head this season so hopefully not a 0-0 home match today?

10 of Frankfurt's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Again a great recent record - 5 of Frankfurt's last 6 away matches have been over 2.5 goals but they only have a 45% overall record of overs away from home.

They score away on average 1.09 but concede 1.72.

Against 6th and 8th in the league away, it's been over 2.5 goals ( Cottbus are 7th)

530pm - SCR Altach v First Vienna - 1.33 home - Austrian 2nd tier typifies the relatively poor selections we have today. It looks as if the league is recommencing today after a break since November 2010. The head the heads are all over the place with a couple of 0-0's then a2 Altach wins , then a 1-1 draw. Not for me today thanks. We have the weekend upon us and there will be plenty of opportunities.

630pm - Rapid Bucharest v Unirea Urziceni - 1.53 home - first new match of the Romanian top flight and recent matches have been international club friendlies so the form is not too useable.

1-1, 1-0(Unirea win) , 1-1, 0-0 last 4 head to heads do not signal a confident back of Rapid Bucharest, and again in a league returning to domestic action, it is difficult to get a form line on these 2 teams. Best left alone

JULIPER LEAGUE = GOALS AHOY?

545pm - Cambuur v Volendam - this is the only in play match in the Juliper league on Betfair today. - 7th against 3rd and the ideal today is to look for goals as the league has the highest average of goals per game in Europe ( as covered by soccerstats.com anyway) - Cambuur at home and away have simply struggled against top 6 sides. DLL and then win against 6th but the prevailing pattern is for Cambuur to struggle . Away they have lost all 4 matches against the top 6 teams that they have played.

DWWWDWLW for Cambuur recently at home.

Cambuur's last 7 matches home and away has seen over 2.5 goals.

6 of Cambuur's last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals , last 4 on the trot too. Only 1 loss in 7 matches in 2011 so far for Cambuur and that loss was against 4th in the league , yes you guessed, at home.

What a contrasting season for Volendam - prior to 12th November they were unbeaten, then after 12th November the wheels fall off with 2 wins, 6 losses and 3 draws ( 2 of them 0-0)

LWDLDL away since November for Volendam might make them vulnerable?

Volendam recently lost 4-1 to Dordrecht away who are only 1 place below Cambuur, so again there's that potential vulnerability for a Volendam side who are on the slide.

There are no real standout stats here for both sides.

7pm - Den Bosch v Roosendaal - 1.67 home -home side have kept no clean sheets at home. They have lost 3 at home against 3rd, 4th and 5th in the league. LDDLDD recent home form, and score draws of course as they have not kept a clean sheet at home. Away side 4th from bottom and yes 2 score draws for Den Bosch against 3rd from bottom and 2nd from bottom.

Only 1 win away and have lost all matches against top 7. 2-2 draw with Den Bosch already this season might signal best case score draw for Roosendaal. Limited markets match odds and 2.5 goals makes this match unappealing.

7pm - Telstar v Almere - 1.67 home - 14th v bottom - not for me thanks. Telstar are in bottom 5 for a reason.

7pm - Waalwijk v Veendam - 1.65 home - 2nd v 5th and a 2-2 draw already this season.WLWLWLWW at home for Waalwijk recently - inconsistent form ended with 2 wins on the trot. Make it a 3rd? Again limited markets today as not in running. Waalwijk did have a run of 10 matches over 2.5 goals but since then, it has been unders/unders/unders/overs/unders.

Nice home average for Waalwijk of 2.41 goals scored - quite impressive.

No draw in 12 overall for Waalwijk, and no draw in 9 at home. Lay the draw?

Only 1 loss in 18 matches for Veendam and a pity this is not in play as the lay of Waalwijk might be a good initial trade. Veendam are not opposed lightly in current form.

No defeat in 9 matches WDDWLWDDW for Veendam away . The recent draws were 0-0.

Interestingly against the top 4 sides they have played away, they have lost the 2 matches

7pm - Zwolle v FC Eindhoven - 1.53 home - slight wobble in 2011 seems to have ended with 2 emphatic wins on the trot 3-1 and 2-0 after the 0-0 v Fortuna Sittard which I remember all too well.

8 of Zwolle's last 9 matches were over 2.5 goals. Again, as it is not in running, I would not risk an overs bet, as it may finish 2-0 yet still have been a profitable trade if in play.

2 matches with dropped points at home, one a draw in August 2010 and the other a 3-4 loss to Emmen recently.

Staggering 2.9 goal average at home for Zwolle - they score nearly 3 goals at home.

No draw in 10 matches at home. Likely to win though I would suggest with a goal average like that.

2-1 at Eindhoven in favour of Zwolle.

Endhoven have not won any of the 7 matches they have played away to top 9 sides, but drew 3 of the matches. 3 against the top 4 were tight under 2.5 goals.

Still 67% of away matches over 2.5 goals allies well with Zwolle's 73% home average.

All 3 Eindhoven away matches in 2011 have seen over 2.5 goals.

2 all weather and 2 heavy and one soft jumps meetings today.

340 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Malice Or Mischief, 9/4 Paco Belle, 13/2 George Woolf, 14/1 Ad Vitam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: George Woolf will probably need to make this a good test of stamina if he is to defy top weight. Anything else will probably play into the hands of MALICE OR MISCHIEF, who is easily preferred to Paco Belle.[Graeme North]

Simple 50/50 race - 2 will place and 2 will not.

445 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wily Fox, 5/1 Allez Les Rouges, 5/1 King Kieren, 7/1 Sirdave, 10/1 Miles Of Sunshine, 12/1 River Taff, 20/1 El´wringo, 20/1 In Vigo, 25/1 Phlorian, 33/1 Bearneen Boy, 50/1 Forest, 50/1 Okalydokely, 50/1 Prince Blue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WILY FOX has stamina to prove and might not be as good as his current official rating of 75 suggests but he probably won't have to be to win a very weak maiden. Allez Les Rouges might be next best.[Graeme North]

Allez le Rouge has had recent jumps experience and is technically a debutant in the maiden sphere. he has come in for some support into 9/4 2nd fav currently.

245 NAVAN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gift Of Dgab, 5/2 Popcorn, 9/2 Ballyburke, 6/1 He´s Our Man, 8/1 Sugar Bullet, 10/1 Around A Pound, 14/1 Rhum And Coke, 16/1 Fourth Class, 20/1 Benefit Evening, 20/1 Drumbledore, 25/1 Bennative, 25/1 Lusmtoto, 25/1 Moymore Lad, 25/1 Paddy The Amateur, 25/1 Spiker The Biker, 33/1 Camp Hope, 33/1 Lavish Blue, 50/1 Pullupursocks, 66/1 Day Dream Boy, 66/1 Market Jitters, 100/1 Benbo Star, 100/1 Billybuster, 100/1 Gers Benefit, 100/1 Larkin, 100/1 Whitehall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gift Of Dgab has been doing nothing wrong of late, but he may have to once again play second fiddle, this time to POPCORN. A slightly more restrained ride should see Hes Our Man run another solid race in defeat. [Kevin Blake]

Gift of Dgab has been highly consistent. enough to side with him today in heavy ground?

Big fields in heavy ground does not appeal today for the rest of the card.

250 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Kid Cassidy, 15/8 Shuil Royale, 11/2 Hildisvini, 40/1 Brannoc, 40/1 Royal Mile, 50/1 Ronnie Ronalde.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kid Cassidy was one of the unfortunate horses to be affected by the faulty underground electric cable at Newbury this month and missed his intended engagement on vet's advice. He has to prove he's none the worse for that experience but sets a decent standard and remains capable of better. The verdict, however, goes to SHUIL ROYALE who has created a highly favourable impression in bumpers and looks a nice hurdling prospect.[Steven Boow]more

Only 3 under 50/1 means the highest priced of the 3 is the speculative value alternative ( Hildisvini)

Kid Cassidy and Shuil Royale should dominate with a clear round.

Heavy ground at Warwick and best left alone.

655 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 School For Scandal, 4/1 Storm Tide, 6/1 Barbican, 25/1 Star Danser, 33/1 Ippi N Tombi, 50/1 Big City Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The newcomer Barbican is worth a check in the market, but SCHOOL FOR SCANDAL sets a fair standard and should take some beating.[Steffan Edwards]

Fanning/Johnston and a short priced fav may just be the tonic in a day bereft of solid betting opportunities .Only 3 under 33/1 we are likely not to get much change out of place backing School for Scandal.

This leaves either a chance on the win only , or a place only alternative in one of the 2 others under 33/1

Solid handicap run last time out and back in maiden company now.

755 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Visions Of Johanna, 9/4 Force Group, 3/1 Gearbox, 8/1 Love In The West, 200/1 Hill Of Clare.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Visions Of Johanna looks more straightforward than FORCE GROUP but the extra distance should favour Nick Littmoden's gelding and he can reverse recent Lingfield form.[Steffan Edwards]

Should be 4 horses and 2 places.

SHORTLIST

5pm - Cottbus v FSV Frankfurt - 1.68 home - over 2.5 goals is a strong recent trend for both clubs home and away so over 1.5 goals would be safer? 1.25

Slight concern the 2 home matches which were not overs recently for Cottbus were 0-0's. But 3-2 v Frankfurt earlier this season could assuage my fears there.

545pm - Cambuur v Volendam - no real standout stats bar Cambuur's recent over 2.5 goals record home and away - 7 on the trot. They do struggle though against top sides home and away. 1.28 over 1.5 goals perhaps? Clutching at straws a little though.

245 NAVAN - only mentioned as we are likely to get a half decent price about Gift of Dgab placing in this 28 runner heavy ground hurdle - YIKES! Better to use Betfair SP as the market really is illiquid,

250 SANDOWN - Kid Cassidy was affected by the Newbury electricity incident - but enough to scar him mentally today? 1.15 to place ( illiquid) Shuil Royale is an impressive bumper winner but bumper horses have not ridden over hurdles. 2nd fav and the better price at 1.25 ( again illiquid market)

VAlue alternative is the only other horse under 100/1 Hildisvini.

655 WOLVES - Johnston/Fanning to the rescue in a difficult day? School for scandal is 1.28 to back in the win market and around 1.09 to place and he should place. Barbican is the proverbial dark horse who could be anything.

Would need to look nearer the off, but with only 3 under 33/1 this could be a win only bet on School for scandal.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

5pm - Cottbus v FSV Frankfurt - 1.68 home - over 1.5 goals worth chancing here in Bundesliga 2 - I don't venture there that often but the goals records (recently) look compelling.

Negatives? unimpressive overall home and away over 2.5 goals strike rates for both teams

BUT negated by recent solid over 2.5 goal form.

250 SANDOWN - typical of today we have to hope Kid Cassidy is not mentally scarred by what happened in Newbury ( negative association with racing and electric shock a distinct possibility?) Shuil Royale a ready alternative but yet to race over a hurdle in anger - should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.

655 WOLVES - needs a look at nearer the off to capture potential drifts and market strength. At time of writing School for scandal looks great to place, but chance the win?

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