It is down to the horse racing then, and predominantly probability bets over the jumps. And of course, that caveat that they must complete for us to get a payout. Punchestown's 2 main opponents are no slouches and a suggestion he is a better hurdler than chaser.
The 225 Musselburgh looks the race for me. Although a beginners chase , Alderley Rover has had 5 chase runs in his last 5 races. Has run over chase fences in soft. My concern is that the soft advertised in the Racing Post may be heavier. I have been caught out by the Racing Post before and it is most frustrating. You saw at Thurles yesterday how heavy ground affects horses' form chances.
Old English in the 400 Southwell represents the all conquering Mark Johnston stable. Not run since November 2010 , favourite and one of only 3 under 10/1, 4 under 20/1 . Should be competitive enough here but faith largely in the stable rather than a single run.
*****ONE A DAY - 225 MUSSELBURGH - ALDERLEY ROVER TO PLACE***** Yes a beginners chase but has had last 5 races over chase fences. I cannot legislate for jumping errors alas so am hoping a clear round will ensure a place.
Another successful placer in a race where 4 were under 25/1 so all we really needed was a clear round and that was what we got. 610 Southwell was an excellent probability race, and Cork all star, the best probability race of the day, drifted slightly but won well enough. Good day considering there was no football.
7pm - Veendam v Almere - 1.39 home - Almere used to be called Omniworld and I don't know how drastically they changed. At any rate Veendam have a 2-0 away win to their name this season.
6th play bottom today. Veendam have only lost one match in their last 17 which is a great bit of form , so why are they not higher than 6th? You've guessed it - draws! 7 draws = 14 potential additional points lost.
Only 1 loss at home and that was the 2nd match of the season. Since then, no defeats at home.
Only 4 defeats all season, 3 away and 2 against top 4 sides.
Should not be beaten by Almere today.
WWDDWWWDW last 9 home matches but beware a recent goal drought.
Veendam have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 matches. 3 0-0's and a 1-0 home win.
Almere have won 2 away from home, 4-2, and these seem out of the blue.
LLLWL to top 5 away from home ( Veendam are 6th remember)
5 of Almere's last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals -the only one that wasn't was a bottom of the table clash with Fortuna Sittard.
Almere obviously concede but will a goalshy Veendam take advantage?
It looks as if the home side will either draw or win. But how can we trust the win if they have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 matches?
And over 2.5 goals is difficult to gauge with that goal drought.
Almere's average goals conceded away is 3.36 so they are vulnerable against the right side. I just don't know if Veendam are currently the right side.
11pm - Santos v Noroeste - 1.34 home - 4 draws in last 6 for away side. I would wait til nearer the off for the odds to be a little clearer. Santos don't look short priced favs at the moment.
345 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Punchestowns, 3/1 Crack Away Jack, 4/1 Pasco, 20/1 Bugsy´s Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Of the three principals, Pasco is the one with fewest question marks against his name at present, but it could pay to give PUNCHESTOWNS (nap) one more chance to show his undoubted class now dropping in distance. Crack Away Jack, in receipt of 3lb, could be dangerous if everything comes together. [Mark Brown]
Punchestowns is a class act in a race which should be for 3 runners and 2 places. Clear round as ever assumed. It does, however, look very competitive between the front 3 - 3 very well known horses.
455 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cheltenian, 4/1 Montbazon, 7/1 Malibu Sun, 10/1 Gleann Eagas, 10/1 Simply Ben, 12/1 Black Cache, 14/1 Tickle Me, 16/1 Hamilton Hill, 16/1 Raifteiri, 25/1 Call Me Friday, 25/1 Lord Aldervale, 25/1 Real Tempo, 33/1 Fifi L´amour, 33/1 Orsm, 40/1 Everkingly, 40/1 Kindlelight Soleil, 50/1 Bach To Front, 66/1 Willard.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's probably best to side with CHELTENIAN on this first start for Philip Hobbs. He would probably have made a winning debut but for veering when trained in Ireland and is taken to go one better. Newcomer Montbazon looks next best, ahead of Gleann Eagas. [Mark Brown]
Bumper with 2 under 14/1 currently. Cheltenian interesting for Hobbs/Johnson.
155 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kingdom Of Munster, 9/4 Tamanaco, 4/1 Patterning, 14/1 Battle Honour, 14/1 Falcun, 20/1 Kai Broon, 20/1 Sixties Rock, 50/1 Thescottishsoldier.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kingdom Of Munster has hurdling experience but TAMANACO was a better horse on the Flat and could have some potential in this sphere. Patterning can also get involved.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Soft ground has previously turned out to be heavy so caution. Betting forecast tells us this should be a 3 horse race ideally. Falcun down to 8/1 makes it really a 4 horse race with the 4 under 20/1 here. A juvenile maiden hurdle so we know what to expect - potential for jumping errors.
225 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alderley Rover, 11/10 Sitting Tennant, 14/1 Ballymacduff, 20/1 Devil Water, 50/1 I Witness, 50/1 Political Pendant.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALDERLEY ROVER has done enough the last twice to get the vote but long absences haven't stopped Howard Johnson inmates from winning before and Sitting Tennant is unlikely to go down without a fight.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Beginners chase so L plates firmly fixed on behinds , but the market indicates a potential match up. Ballymacduff looks the each way alternative as he is now 7/1 and ideally placed, I would suggest, if one of the principles makes a mistake.
McCain/Maguire are as trustworthy a partnership as you can get on Alderley Rover.
A beginners chase but Alderley Rover has run last 6 races over chase fences without falling.
445 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Aikman, 5/2 Rupert Lamb, 4/1 Ubi Ace, 25/1 Foxes Delight, 50/1 Over The Clyde, 100/1 Andreo Bambaleo, 100/1 Scotswell.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AIKMAN (nap) and Rupert Lamb appeal most at this trip and the last-named will need to find some improvement to beat the selection.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Another possible 3 horse race for 2 places
400 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Flynn´s Boy, 2/1 Old English, 5/2 Cool Luke, 12/1 King Bertolini, 16/1 Unwrapit, 20/1 Jack´s Rocket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The nicely bred OLD ENGLISH showed ability in a more competitive race on his debut and is open to plenty of improvement. Cool Luke and Flynn's Boy are obvious dangers.[Ron Wood]
3 under 12/1 here in this fibresand maiden - Mark Johnston's Old English of obvious appeal.
435 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Colebrooke, 5/2 Granny Anne, 7/2 Eilean Mor, 7/2 Rath Maeve.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COLEBROOKE is confidently predicted to get his act together on his return. His profile is strikingly similar to last year's winner, a Mark Johnston runner who had shown ability in six juvenile starts without really progressing, and was returning from over three months off after a gelding operation.[Ron Wood]
The Johnston record at Southwell is worth repeating - last 6 runners at Southwell all winners and 2nd places without exception. So this makes Colebrooke interesting in a tight old race ( as you can see by a 7/2 quote for the "outsider"
SHORTLIST
155 MUSSELLBURGH - another probability type race with 4 under 18/1 under consideration for the places but this is a maiden juvenile hurdle so we are likely to see our fair share of jumping errors and perhaps a dark horse at better odds.
225 MUSSELBURGH - 3 horses for 2 places is how this race should play out. The fly in the ointment is the 8/1 3rd favourite. Alderley Rover looks primed to be competitive. A beginners chase and the named horse has the experience recently over chase fences. 1.2 to place offers us decent enough odds .
445 MUSSELBURGH - another which should revolve around the front 3 for 2 places. The favourite Aikman is odds on favourite now. 2nd last time out after falling previously. We should see a place at least with a clear round. Another around 1.2 to place and it looks as if this might be the maximum price today in the place only market. It is just a matter of selecting the best of the 1.2 shots.
400 SOUTHWELL - Mark Johnston has such a devastating recent record at Southwell that any horse favourite and from the stable needs close consideration. Old English is such a horse and is one of 3 under 12/1 and should be competitive. No Fairley or Fanning today a slight niggle.
Highly illiquid place only market sees 1.54 quote at present.
435 SOUTHWELL - 111 day absence a slight niggle for another Johnston runner, as is the look of the race. Looks a tight and competitive race if the betting is anything to go by.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
7pm - Veendam v Almere - 1.39 home - home side should win but 1 goal in last 4 matches means that they are on a mini goal drought at present so are probably not good one a day candidates.
345 Kempton sees a tight race involving 3 horses and Punchestown's 31 length defeat last time out is still fresh in the memory. A class act though, fluent jumping should ensure a place. 66% chance of placing here.
225 MUSSELBURGH - a beginners chase and 3 under 20/1 should be the ones to fight the 2 places. Alderley Rover looks a good call here with recent chase races under his belt . 3 miles is a long way in a beginners chase. Any error will be punished, but probability wise, this is another good shout.
400 SOUTHWELL - Old English should help keep the Mark Johnston bandwagon rolling at Southwell. 3 under 11/1 and a 93 day absence. Debutant at Southwell's fibresand but that didn't stop his other runners running well.
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