back-lay-trade-horses-football: 2/2

One horse of interest today is Ocean Countess and I think she should place in a class 6 0-60 handicap . 1.4 to place is interesting and is such a price for a 7/4 - - - - 6/1 price gapper simply because of the poor quality of this race.
Elsewhere Roma would have been interesting were it not for their recent 1-0 wins, playing today a team who have lost by only 1 goal in 8 of their away matches. Look elsewhere. And to Genk who are spanking in the goals at home ( failed to score 3 or more only once at home - where they scored 2!!) against a St Truiden side who have only got points away to bottom 3 sides. St Truiden have failed to score in 73% of their away matches - nearly 3 quarters of away matches without a goal!! Marry that with the genk goalscoring exploits and we can see that Genk should win with their scoring boots on, and a motivation to get within a point of Anderlecht.
Another appeal is that this is in running, so is tradable and you could reactive - it is an option I will exercise.

*****ONE A DAY 730 pm GENK V ST TRUIDEN - BACK GENK IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.3*****
Some have asked where they find the match. Well this is a Belgian League match, so look in that coupon at Betfair. Alternatively go to the Football section of Betfair and click on IN PLAY coupon.
Better yet, why not install free trading software for Betfair at www.geekstoy.com. This software is free and really enhances the Betfair markets.

A Pleasant surprise to see Sire de Grugy at 1.14 at race time. He won as he should have . A frustation that I researched the NEXT GOAL Man Utd ( and Celtic) and they both obliged at better odds. I was a little fearful with what is a new market for me .
Enhanced bet? How about Arsenal 1-0 down. As you saw in the message, Everton score away against top 10 sides but mostly draw.

I am travelling tomorrow at about the time the betting markets show themselves ( 1130am)- my Mum is not well and I want to see her .I will do my best before hand.

3pm - APEP v Anorthosis - 1.4 away - Cypriot Cup - erm, no thanks mate!!
4pm - Martigues v Paris St-G - 1.42 away - lower leagues v top flight and I am constantly surprised with the relatively big prices for top flight teams in this French Cup.Only one loss in their last 12 for Paris St Germain puts them in good stead for this match against far weaker opponents.
Betting blind here - team news for Paris? Weakened side? State of the Martigues pitch etc?
6pm - Besiktas v Gaziantep BB - 1.35 home - top flight v Division2 . 1-0 down from the first leg and a great incentive for Besiktas here to get back on parity and win. Over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches in all competitions for Besiktas. Porto were the last side to beat Besiktas 10 matches ago.

7pm - Almeria v Barcelona - 1.42 away - beware a team that does not need to win. The only recent loss for Barca was another Cup match, a 5 goal head start and a Betis team who wanted to win. This is almost identical this evening. The stars will be rested and the lack of cohesion with the Barca 2nd string was evident against Betis. They remain a joy to watch though but tricky betting mediums this evening.
730pm - Genk v Sint Truiden - 1.3 home - I feel drawn to this match and more research will tell me if I am on the money. 5 wins and a draw for Genk in head to heads. 0-0 and 2-1 at Genk in 2009 and 2010 makes us a little cautious. You would want a 1.3 shot to be a little more emphatic ( see United yesterday at 1.37 - 3-1) Genk have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches, and one was a cup match. They have caught the Everton bug of late ( drawitis), DDDDWW last 6 matches, albeit 2 of those matches were club friendlies.
A must win for Genk this evening. The only side anywhere near Anderlecht at the top, a win takes them within a point of the leaders.9 wins and 2 draws at home for Genk.
The 2 losses came within the last 4 home matches - a sign of the wheels coming off? No!!!! They happened to be playing first and 3rd in the league and lost to both so I would not get concerned.
They have won the 9 home matches against those outside the top 3!
3,1,5,3 scored in last 4 at home for Genk ( the 1 was against 3rd in league Gent)
Consistency in scoring at home.
Genk have scored in their last 11 matches home and away.
Like Blackpool, 100% of Genk's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Your job, researching football, is to look for stats such as this one -I call them STANDOUT STATS.
No draw in 11 at home.
Going down the league, with teams they have played at home, Genk have scored 4,3,3,3,3,2,5,4,5 - mighty consistent, only once under 3.
St Truiden's only win away was against bottom side.8 defeats and 2 draws away , and have lost all away matches against top 8 sides.
LLLDLWLL away recently , as I say the win was against bottom side. Another standout stat - St Truiden have failed to score away in 73% of their matches. Marry that with Genk's goalscoring exploits at home ( only once have they failed to score 3 ) and we see that this 1.3 for Genk is justified.
St Truiden have only scored 8 goals in the first half in all of their 21 matches this season.

745pm - Lille v Nantes - 1.35 home - I used to follow Nantes as it used to be they, and Le Havre, dominating the 2nd flight.Nantes though are struggling with only 7 wins, 3 away this season in the 2nd flight.Lille are top but have 6 teams chomping at the bit to take over at the sign of weakness. This makes me wonder if the Cup is a distraction?
WWWDWW at home, no defeat in 11 home and away, you would expect a motivated Lille to win tonight.
745pm - Roma v Brescia - 1.32 home - Seria A match - I feel I have to make this distinction with there having been so many Cup matches of late.Brescia last met Roma in 2005 prior to a 2010 meeting indicating they are newcomers to Seria A.
Brescia won 2-1 at home against Roma in 2010 but the market thinks that was an anomoly and Roma should gain vengeance this evening. That was way back in September 2010
Roma have 2 games in hand over 1st and 3rd and if they win those 2 they will be 2nd - clearly incentivised here to win their home matches against promoted sides!!
Roma will be equal with Lazio with a win this evening- their mighty rivals.
Roma have not lost at home all season. 8 wins and 2 draws.WWWLWW recent form ( loss away) for Roma shows they are full of confidence. 3 of those wins were 1-0 so slight Italian temperament maybe? As a bettor I hate 1-0 scorelines, they are so precarious.
WWWWWWWW at home - can't get better than that.1,2,2,3,2,1,4,3 at home scored in those matches.
Roma have scored in all of their last 13 matches.
Roma have only conceded 11 in the first hour in all of their 21 matches this season - we see where their strengths lie - score and do not concede.
As I do all this research it would seem this match is postponed!! The market is still up on Betfair and soccerstats says it is postponed.
Might as well finish.
Brescia are 2nd from bottom. 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses away.
LLLDLLLLL away from home latest.
Latest overall - LLDLWLLLWLL - the 2 wins came at home. 8 away matches have been 1 goal affairs. Slightly concerning.

9pm - Real Madrid v Sevilla - 1.4 home - a poor Real team suddenly returning to a team of costly failures reliant on one man for goals. About as trustworthy as Arthur Daley at the moment. This is a Cup match, Real are unbeaten at home in the league, so perhaps an angle in there. I am afraid I am leaving Real Madrid well alone -I thought Jose had brought some magic to the side, but they are slipping into bad habits again . 11 individuals rather than 1 team and I am still smarting how some clown like Kaka is paid so much for being Kaka!
2359pm - Flamengo v Nova Iguacu - 1.3 home - last met in 2006/2007 - a match for me to look at nearer the off. Instinctively, there are better bets today.
2359pm - Gremio v Liverpool (Uru) - 1.3 home - I wonder if this Uruguan Liverpool side have brought in Kenios Dalglishinho as their new manager?

145 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Allee Garde, 5/2 Lord Redsgirth, 7/1 Celtic Wish, 7/1 Cottage Star, 10/1 Crude, 10/1 Kid Curry, 12/1 Simonay, 20/1 Ad Man, 20/1 Blue Vic, 20/1 Daneva, 20/1 Drumbledore, 20/1 Ounaja, 25/1 Sarahs Pet, 33/1 Eagle´s Away, 33/1 Mc Paddy, 50/1 Bearsgrove, 50/1 Lord Rudi, 50/1 Maid In Moscow, 50/1 Western Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willie Mullins has his string in fine fettle these days and his hurdling recruit ALLEE GARDE and Paul Townend shade the verdict over the more experienced Lord Redsgirth. [Brian Fleming]

Allee GArde standout here in a race dominated by big stables - Mullins and Gordon Elliott and big jockeys ( Paul Townend and Paul Carberry)

720 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Advertisement, 7/2 Ocean Legend, 5/1 Gallantry, 8/1 Ongoodform, 8/1 Street Power, 9/1 Bawaardi, 12/1 Samarinda, 16/1 Gala Casino Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's plenty to recommend Ocean Legend but he's come up against a promising sort in ADVERTISEMENT (nap), who could be better than this level. Unbeaten in two starts since being fitted with a tongue-tie, the manner of his latest success suggests he's only just beginning to realise his potential and he's a strong fancy.[Ron Wood]

Spotlight is sweet on Advertisement here, but have we missed the boat with 2 wins already (this is a handicap) - 8 horses and 3 places though and George Baker instils a little extra confidence that , although he might not win, Advetisement should come close for the places.

330 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Tafika, 11/2 No Tears, 8/1 Forever Man, 10/1 Woodmore, 12/1 Theballyedmondchap, 14/1 Bohemian Rock, 20/1 Jolly Boys Outing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a weak maiden chase and TAFIKA ought to open his account if reproducing his latest second behind a subsequent winner here last time.[Dave Orton]

Big price gapper here, and interesting were it not for the heavy ground , the 2 places only on offer and the fact this is a maiden chase.

140 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Apache Ridge, 15/8 Frequency, 5/2 Anjomarba, 14/1 Orchid Wing, 33/1 Music Lover.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Frequency will appreciate the return to 6f and can go well, but he was keen enough last time and the headgear might light him up even more. Apache Ridge is respected, but ANJOMARBA knows how to win and gets the nod this time. [Paul Smith]

Good probability race. This should be dominated by the front 3 but this is a seller and these 3 cannot really be split in the betting.

210 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Primo De Vida, 9/4 Sailing North, 6/1 Stand Beside Me, 8/1 Warm Memories, 33/1 Main Attraction, 66/1 Lady Ellice.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Primo De Vida has strong claims here but he has been very expensive to follow and it could be worth chancing SAILING NORTH. He ran a better race at Kempton last time and is open to a bit more improvement after just two starts.[Paul Smith]

Only 4 horses under 33/1 here makes this a 4 horse race for 2 places.

310 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ocean Countess, 6/1 Celtic Ransom, 6/1 Noah Jameel, 7/1 Lean Machine, 10/1 Indefinite Hope, 12/1 Red Willow, 12/1 White Deer, 16/1 Usquaebach, 20/1 Majestueux, 33/1 Sea Tobougie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these come into the race with a convincing profile but OCEAN COUNTESS (nap) is a notable exception and a reproduction of her latest second in a competitive event should suffice in this lower grade.[Paul Smith]

Another class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper and we may just be catching Ocean Countess on the start of a winning/placed sequence in this poor grade.

220 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Music Of The Moor, 5/2 Shadows Lengthen, 7/2 Storm Brig, 17/2 Bollin Felix, 16/1 Hobsons Bay, 25/1 Nolecce, 25/1 Sweet Sugar, 28/1 Bunclody, 28/1 Falcun, 28/1 Young Alfie, 50/1 Cool Star, 50/1 Fairlea Bob, 50/1 Roslin Moss, 66/1 Aitch Factor, 66/1 Daredevil Dan, 100/1 Willowthewizard.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Storm Brig and, in particular, Shadows Lengthen command plenty of respect after good efforts on their hurdling debuts but quite useful Flat-racer MUSIC OF THE MOOR (nap) achieved more when making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown last month and is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]

The owner of Newcastle United has an extra £40 million. Will he be going to the races?

This looks to be a 4 horse race 3 places ( the 4 horses under 33/1)

SHORTLIST