Holland really stand out this evening at a great price of 1.38 and I am really tempted to put them up. Unbeaten in 32, and playing at home ( an important factor when judged against away sides like Liechtenstein and the Swiss?) this should be a win or draw , and the Austrians have score drawn 5 of their last 10 aways ( losing the rest)
Spain are at home and have talent galore in all areas. Against South American opposition in recent friendlies, it was 1-1 v Mexico and 4-1 loss to Argies. But Spain are at home, are World Champions and their home support will expect a performance . Back them to win and hope for a strongly chosen side? Niggles? Little known about any strong qualities regarding Columbia. Take on trust that Spain will field a first team ( beware Barca have Champions League soon and they provide the majority of the Spanish side)
Another slight niggle is the fact Spain's last 3 friendlies were draw, loss, loss. World Cup hangover?
Horse racing wise and Punchestown sees heavy ground but So young appeals at a stingy 1.12 to place and should really win easily with a clear round. Heavy should suit .
145 Ludlow sees Kelle's belles , one of only 4 under 33/1 should place
Do I trust friendlies? I nearly came undone yesterday with Spain. I cannot get that Dutch unbeaten run out of my mind and the fact they are playing at home.
For that reason I am going to chance the Dutch, and acknowledge that this is a friendly, and Van Persie is missing.
***** ONE A DAY 730pm - Netherlands v Austria - -Back Netherlands in the match odds market at 1.38 *****
We have to take a chance with friendlies and know that teams often do not have the motivation to win these matches as they are effectively meaningless. 2 things I hope will make the Dutch play 1) home and 2) 32 match unbeaten run
I will be looking out for team news in the interim. If it is a much changed Dutch side I will update.
Note also the amount of score draws from the Swiss. This is another in play match so a late 1-0 Netherlands is tradable for those seeking early bet settlement rather than sweating it out.
I was about ready to write the post mortem, you know, Spain scored first, we could have traded, especially after an equaliser and Spanish red card, but luckily Spain got the winner in the end.
A lesson though in trading yesterday. Getting out at 1.09 when Spain scored first would have avoided all the worry of a 1-1 and a red card!!
It was an excellent message yesterday, with all angles in the Ireland match covered ( laying Ireland would have been a trading success with 0-0 at halftime, backing Ireland was a success, and laying the draw was a success. Those boyos do not like drawing, boyo. Jack's revenge was indeed fancied and won.
2pm - Andorra v Moldova - 1.3 away - home side have lost all of their last 12 matches ( could be more but the website i use only goes up to 12) - 2,3,2,4 conceded in their last 4 matches - in 11 of their last 12 matches at home, Andorra have conceded 2 minimum. That's some stat for a home side! Moldova look to be able to hold their own, recent losses 1-0 to Poland and 1-0 to Holland show this. Although no world beaters themselves , they should find Andorra a lot easier this afternoon. Can they be trusted to score 2 at least away at Andorra I don't know. Neither do we know the team changes that might be apparent in friendlies.
2pm - San Marino v Liechtenstein - 1.51 away - if Liechtenstein are odds on favourites, you know that San Marino must be pants. This is the match that the whole world has been waiting for! San Marino have lost their last 12 ( could be longer!!) and Liechtenstein have drawn 3 and lost 9 of their last 12 - yikes!
It is San Marino's concession rate that is of interest - 3,3,10,7,5,7,3,5,6,8,2,8 conceded in last 12 WITHOUT SCORING A SINGLE GOAL THEMSELVES. The inference is that if Liechtenstein can score, they should win.
Liechtenstein have not been spanked as much in defeat, and collaterally, drew 1-1 with Finland who beat San Marino 8-0 last time out.
Liechtenstein away have been quite solid last 3 matches, 1-1, 2-1 loss, 1-1. The 2-1 loss was against Scotland, when Liechtenstein took the lead and it required Fergy-like extra time for Scotland to grab the winner.
Could these 3 games signal a turning point for Liechtenstein away? And will this enable them to get the better of San Marino. I ask this because 1.51 away is a very good price.
3pm - Greece v Canada - 1.48 home - difficult to compare these 2 as they are from different footballing regions. The only piece of collateral form is a 2-0 loss for Greece v Argentina and a 5-0 loss for Canada.
greece always concern me because they are, erm, typically Greek. ,0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 it is the games that end by one goal that are the concern.
A recent Canadian 2-2 draw against Ukraine looks mighty impressive if taken at face value.
Difficult game to gauge.
635pm - South Africa v Kenya - 1.29 home - this should go the way of the world cup hosts , for although they are naive at times, their experience and squad members from elite leagues should ensure a win. 6 of Kenya's last 7 matches have been 1-0's or 0-0's, but is this a reflection of the opposition rather than any Kenyan defensive capabilities? 5-1 loss to Egypt perhaps answers that question. Only 2 losses in the last 12 for South Africa signals a good 2009/2010 for them. Ideally we would want to see the Premiership contingent for the South Africans and a fully strengthened SA side who should dispatch of Kenya. Maybe a 0-0 cover here incase the Kenyans really are defensively strong?
715pm - Luxembourg v Slovakia - 1.28 away - 2 wins in last 12 for Luxembourg came against Lierge, a club side, in friendlies.
LLLLDLD for Luxembourg last 7 matches.The draws were both 0-0 against Belarus and Algeria at home.
2 losses in last 3 ( and it should be 3 losses - 1-1 draw against Ireland includes a missed Keane penalty which would have won it for Ireland) for Slovakia. They are difficult to get a grip on. In no way, though, can they be lumped in with Luxembourg, San MArino, Andorra et al. Any sign of their World Cup performances should see them easily dispatch this Lux side, despite the latter drawing last 2 home matches 0-0.
730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - 11 losses and a single draw last 12 for Malta. The World Cup gave the Swiss a reputation as being tight. They also have the ability to score against the right side as shown by the 4-1 win over Wales. Switzerland's last 4 matches have been 1-0's but 2 were in the World Cup.
730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - Holland are on a 32 match unbeaten run in all competitions stretching back to September 2008 when beaten 2-1 by Australia in a friendly. Talk about standout stats!!
No van persie this evening will be a big loss as he has been excellent for the Arse of late. Ideally I would like to see the Dutch side full of the usual stars . 1.38 looks very appealing. Against the bigger European nations, Austria seem to fall foul ( I am talking about France ( lost 3-1) and Spain (lost 5-1))
I cannot see the Orange Men losing at home. DLLDLDLDLD away for Austria The draws have all been scoredraws away from home. If this sequence continues, we should expect a loss today?
830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - Barcelona are back, sorry I mean Spain are back and should replicate the work of the nippers last night. Difficult to compare these 2 teams again as they play against teams from different continents. I am also concerned if Torres is selected for the Spanish as he has been ineffective for some time now and it was a nice bit of business from Liverpool unloading him. I hope Pedro, and Villa are chosen ahead of Torres this evening.
Spain have lost 2 of their last 4 matches. One was a 4-1 loss to Argentina ( which resulted in Barca losing to hercules as most of the Barca team had to fly out to Buenos Aires and back for the start of La Liga) and 4-0 drubbing v Portugal.
This may indicate that Spain do not take friendlies that seriously.
The last 3 friendlies - 1-1 draw with Mexico, 4-1 loss v Argentina and 4-0 loss to Portugal.Take away the friendlies and it's WWWWWDWWW for Spain.
This is the dilemma we face this evening if wading in at 1.2.
A safer option may be over 1.5 goals at the same odds which will cover any potential upsets from the Colombians.
6 of Columbia's last 7 matches have either been 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 scorelines.
Spain at home have won 10 and lost 1 ( 1-0 v Swiss) so at home they seem a different proposition as they have won all 4 friendlies played at home recently.
Heavy ground at Carlisle so extreme caution here. I will look for races where there are a few non runners because of the weather. Hopefully we can exploit these.
High Ransom is certainly interesting in the first but it's all a case of ifs and buts here as regards whether he handles heavy going. I will not chance it. You saw what a hint of heavy did to otherwise strong favourite Vino Griego.
610 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fastinthestraight, 5/1 Aggbag, 5/1 Ocean Of Peace, 8/1 Hecton Lad, 12/1 Jackson, 12/1 Lunar River, 12/1 Mayfair´s Future, 16/1 Inchando, 16/1 Rosy Dawn, 25/1 Dawson Creek, 25/1 Moment Of Clarity, 33/1 Kathleen Kennet, 33/1 Maydream, 33/1 Mighty Aphrodite.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three recent course winners turn out under a penalty, the pick of them being the relatively unexposed FASTINTHESTRAIGHT who lived up to his name when accounting for Mayfair's Future ten days ago, picking up well down the home stretch to score with authority.[Steven Boow]
Ocean Countess's recent failure tells you all you need to know about the negatives regarding these low grade affairs - this is a 0-50 ( and literally next stop Blackpool pleasure beach) class 7 handicap. Fastinthestraight is a significant price gapper though at 11/8 - - - - 7/1 with only 4 under 14/1 but do we trust such poor quality horses?
640 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Jake The Snake, 7/2 Hinton Admiral, 9/2 Lastkingofscotland, 8/1 Slikback Jack, 25/1 Kenswick, 25/1 Silver Wind.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Back down in grade, this should be a good opportunity for JAKE THE SNAKE to record his seventh course success. Hinton Admiral can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]
This should be a 4 horse race for 2 places ( 2 outsiders at 20/1+ should be ignored?)
Go with Jake the Snake with George Baker who got the gamble home yesterday.
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Aloneinthestreet, 9/4 Kuala Limper, 7/1 Dorcas Lane, 9/1 Whodathought, 12/1 Malice Or Mischief, 20/1 Il Battista.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The improvement shown by the well-bred ALONEINTHESTREET (nap) on his handicap debut at Southwell last week was probably not down to the surface (he had shown promise over C&D on debut) and he can defy his penalty. Course winners Kuala Limper and Sammy Alexander can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]
Do we automatically place back Johnston/Fanning on the all weather at the moment? Yesterday's debutant in the maiden finished a close up 2nd at Southwelll, and Alone in the street is the one today. Only 2 places again which is a slight concern.
300 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mongoose Alert, 3/1 Layla´s Dancer, 7/1 Quinsman, 14/1 Eton Fable.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONGOOSE ALERT ran well in a stronger race at Wolverhampton on his first outing for his new stable and this return to a longer trip and the drop back into a claimer should see him return to winning ways. Layla's Dancer looks likeliest to chase him home.[Paul Smith]
4 horses and 2 places, but even better, one is 20/1 so this should be 3 horses for 2 places. Middle distance claimers are perhaps not the ideal betting mediums. Has won over 12 furlongs, today is 15 furlongs so distance should be no concern for Mongoose alert.
410 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Joe Le Taxi, 100/30 Chevise, 6/1 Captain Dimitrios, 6/1 Greenhead High, 6/1 Monsieur Jamie, 16/1 Toms River Tess.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JOE LE TAXI has more on his plate off his revised mark against better opposition, but he is still open to a bit of improvement and he can complete his hat-trick at the main expense of Chevise and Monsieur Jamie. [Paul Smith]
Johnston/Fairley this time and Joe le Taxi is 10/11 - - - 9/2 in the live market and fancied to complete the hatrick although I am always concerned by multiple handicap winners running again under a penalty again. eventually the weight will catch up with them.
145 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kells Belle, 5/2 The Cockney Mackem, 8/1 Flowerdew, 11/1 Lobby Ludd, 25/1 Medicine Man, 25/1 Practice Round, 28/1 High Kite, 28/1 Marvelous, 28/1 Singapore Storm, 33/1 Robello, 40/1 Dennis Doyle, 50/1 Onthelips, 66/1 Tild´or Du Granit, 100/1 Naughtyatiz, 100/1 Past Gambles.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lots of deadwood and hard to see beyond KELLS BELLE, a bumper winner on her debut and who sets a clear standard on her second to a decent winner in a Hereford novice on last month's hurdling debut. The Cockney Mackem is easily the biggest danger. [Mel Cullinan]
There must indeed be lots of deadwood with the betting market showing only 4 under 33/1. McCoy/Henderson again on Kells belle and I suspect the Cockney Mackem will be there at the business end. Usual caveat - clear round of jumping!
430 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Herons Well, 2/1 The Cool Guy, 7/1 Lisadell King, 10/1 Oopsmylord, 20/1 The General Lee, 25/1 Dust In Time, 25/1 New Team, 25/1 No Virtue, 33/1 Ice Bucket, 33/1 Oca De Thaix, 50/1 Gunnadoit, 50/1 Orphelin Collonges, 50/1 Overbury Pearl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lisadell King and Oopsmylord have place chances. However, this looks to be between just Herons Well and THE COOL GUY (nap) for the win, with the former having the best form over shorter distances and the latter suggesting he can be a major force at this level when he won at Cheltenham (3m1f) last May.[Richard Austen]
Hunters chase so jockeys an unknown but should concern the 4 only under 20/1 ( yet again barring accidents)
110 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Garde Champetre, 9/2 One Cool Cookie, 8/1 Lord Nellerie, 12/1 Benefit Night, 20/1 How Are Things, 20/1 Merry Cowboy, 25/1 The Speedy Man, 33/1 Olympe De Touzaine.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has a virtual stranglehold on these events and his sole challenger GARDE CHAMPETRE is difficult to oppose seeking his first win since the end of 2009 with Grand National entry One Cool Cookie likely to give him most to do. [Brian Fleming]
8 runners and 3 places and old faithful, garde Champetre is strong market leader for Enda Bolger who is the cross country king of Cheltenham and Punchestown.
245 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 So Young, 9/2 Big Game Hunter, 6/1 The Pier, 14/1 Kilcrea Castle, 20/1 Moscow Storm, 50/1 Heavy Duty.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Cheltenham aspirations for SO YOUNG go on trial to an extent here and this race should give a clearer indication of what race to target at the Festival. None of these should trouble him unduly, although Big Game Hunter could keep him honest if on his best behaviour. [Justin OHanlon]
Should be a 3 horse race with 2 clear each way alternatives to So Young who should win for Mullins and , as an Irish horse, should handle heavy ground.
SHORTLIST
At the very beginning it must be stressed that all of these matches are friendlies , so there is a wealth warning here!
2pm - Andorra v Moldova - 1.3 away - Andorra consistently concede 2 goals -can we trust Moldova, in a friendly, to continue this tradition this afternoon? They surely should have too much on paper for the Andorrans.
635pm - South Africa v Kenya - 1.29 home - superb year last year for the South Africans should see a first team beat Kenya. Team news key for me. Kenya have had a lot of close matches but are these close matches flattered by the quality( or lack rather) of the opposition?
715pm - Luxembourg v Slovakia - 1.28 away - the Lux under 21's were similarly priced yesterday and lost 6-0. But this Luxembourg have managed 2 0-0 home draws lately - a sign of stubborness at home? Slovakia had some good moments in the World Cup and any reproduction of those performances should see them draw first blood.
730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - the Malteser's record in their last 12 is poor and , again, if the Swiss show the goalscoring prowess of their win against Wales, they could bring home the odds this evening.
730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - a 32 match unbeaten run is unlikely to be ended by the Austrians this evening. No Van Persie is a big blow to Netherlands as I don't really have faith in headless chicken Kuyt. Still , Huntelaar, Van Der Vaart, Robben ( if playing) et al should get this one sorted this evening and with home advantage those in orange expect a win.
Team news will determine my final strategy here. It seems we have a choice - win or draw for the Dutch this evening!
830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - you will be aware that Spain have not won the last 3 friendlies - infact they have conceded 8 in their last 2 friendlies. But at home, they won their 4 recent friendlies and I expect the fact this match is at home to be the telling factor. We may be made to wait, and ideally I would want team news as I would with the Dutch. The sight of Pedro , a genuine goal machine, would be most welcome. Columbia largely unknown quantities
1.42 to place
300 LINGFIELD - this is very tempting - Mongoose alert in a 4 horse race for 2 places - 1.17 to place
145 LUDLOW - hope that this is dominated by the 4 under 20/1 here with Kelle's Belles the obvious choice. - 1.15 to place with a clear round as ever.
110 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.09 for Garde Champetre to place is a little stingy so the value would seem to be 2nd favourite here One Cool Cookie each way
245 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.12 to place for So Young is quite generous for such a strong favourite. Only 2 places .1.3 to win for this possibly Cheltenham bound horse.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Niggles? Friendlies and heavy ground at Punchestown.
2pm - San Marino v Liechtenstein - 1.51 away - one for the speculators, 8 of San Marino's last 12 matches have seen them concede 5 or more. We can chance that Liechtenstein can add to this by at least scoring first ( San Marino have not scored in their last 12 internationals.) As poor as Liechtenstein are, they have at least posted good recent results against far stronger opponents.
730pm - Malta v Switzerland - 1.34 away - the home side's poor form in last 12 and a replication of the Swiss performance against Wales recently should see an away win. niggles with this match and Liechtenstein's is the fact that both are away from home.
730pm - Netherlands v Austria - 1.38 home - I am continuously drawn to this match. 32 matches unbeaten for Netherlands and home ( as opposed to the above 2 matches) advantage. 5 score draws in last 10 away matches for Austria - they either lose or draw away. Note this - if Austria score first the Netherlands are likely to reply with an equaliser.
I cannot see anything in an Austrian side to trouble the Dutch. Ideally team news for me to see the strength or otherwise in what is a friendly match only.
830pm - Spain v Colombia - 1.2 - could not beat the last 2 South American friendly sides, but perhaps a hangover after winning the World Cup. World Cup fever should pervade tonight. Spain are rock solid at home ( only aberation 1-0 loss to Swiss) -team news will gauge my confidence.
145 LUDLOW - Kelle's Belles at 1.15 looks great to place here in a race of only 4 under 33/1!! McCoy/Henderson and a clear round should suffice.
245 PUNCHESTOWN - 1.12 to place for So Young is a very good price relative to his win only price. Needs a clear round in heavy ground ( but should be used to heavy ground as he is an Irish horse) , this Cheltenham bound horse should win well .
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