I have to fly out at 1125am back home to see my Mum who is ill. I have done what I could but the ideal is the view the betting markets a little later than I am writing now. We can also gauge whether advertised soft ground is soft or soft/heavy. This makes a big difference.
No football of interest today.
Races of interest for me today would be the 315 CLONMEL with Bishopsfurze looking ideally placed to, erm, place. 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 16/1. Only 2 horses under 10/1 . Fists of fury is the value alternative under Davey Russell as the only other horse under 10/1
This is a listed race so a good run from an outsider would not be a surprise. Still I think a clear round should see Bishopsfurze place.
The 250 Wincanton sees a relatively good 1.2 price for Ozric to place. This is a 4 horse race for 2 places so Ozric, with a clear round, has a 50/50 chance of placing. A drop to 2 miles is a slight concern for this one today, but last 3 chase runs ( 2 miles, 2 miles 3 and 2 miles 4 furlongs) have seen the horse never out of the front 2. Barry Geraghty on board and I would chance this one today although another concern that 2 miles means these horses will be going fast over the chase fences. Any mistakes will be punished.
These are the 2 to take out today at this early stage. I cannot put them up because it is not thorough analysis with a proper betting market. I hope the message helps. I will be
Another 1-1 - the 3rd of the year. Genk did score first for back to lay traders, hence the slight mention it was in play. The only match this season under 2.5 goals for Genk, and with Genk scoring less than 2 at home.
No football of interest today.
Races of interest for me today would be the 315 CLONMEL with Bishopsfurze looking ideally placed to, erm, place. 8 runners and 3 places. Only 4 horses under 16/1. Only 2 horses under 10/1 . Fists of fury is the value alternative under Davey Russell as the only other horse under 10/1
This is a listed race so a good run from an outsider would not be a surprise. Still I think a clear round should see Bishopsfurze place.
The 250 Wincanton sees a relatively good 1.2 price for Ozric to place. This is a 4 horse race for 2 places so Ozric, with a clear round, has a 50/50 chance of placing. A drop to 2 miles is a slight concern for this one today, but last 3 chase runs ( 2 miles, 2 miles 3 and 2 miles 4 furlongs) have seen the horse never out of the front 2. Barry Geraghty on board and I would chance this one today although another concern that 2 miles means these horses will be going fast over the chase fences. Any mistakes will be punished.
These are the 2 to take out today at this early stage. I cannot put them up because it is not thorough analysis with a proper betting market. I hope the message helps. I will be
Another 1-1 - the 3rd of the year. Genk did score first for back to lay traders, hence the slight mention it was in play. The only match this season under 2.5 goals for Genk, and with Genk scoring less than 2 at home.
I completely missed Blackpool. As you know a 100% over 2.5 goal record for Blackpool, but I missed them on the coupon.
Ocean Countess unplaced - that's class 6 for you.Inconsistency!
315 CLONMEL
Unable to paste betting forecast today. This is a listed race -soft to heavy ground is a slight concern to me. This is an 8 runner race for 3 places and 4 only under 16/1. Bishopsfurze should continue the excellent Mullins form in Ireland in the run up to the big Festival in March. Illiquid market at time of writing but around 1.16 for Bishopsfurze.
4 horses under 16/1 only and Bishopsfurze should have a good probability chance of placing. Listed race so no slouches in this field .
Fists of fury looks the value alternative here as the only other horse under 10/1.
4 horses under 16/1 only and Bishopsfurze should have a good probability chance of placing. Listed race so no slouches in this field .
Fists of fury looks the value alternative here as the only other horse under 10/1.
230 SOUTHWELL - this is a maiden stakes race where it seems to be between 3 runners for the 2 places. Those 3 runners are Ana Emarati, Eilean Mor and Laugh and Cry. 2 will place but which one will not? 1.5 - 1.7 for the top 3 to place in what should be a 3 horse race. Very reasonable prices. As ever with Southwell, it is a matter of trusting the horses to handle the unique surface.
140 TOWCESTER - 4 under 25/1 here but soft ground and Towcester makes for a test for these horses.
The Chazer is a big price gapper here. 1.14 to place if the soft ground and the hill at the finish don't kill him!!
250 WINCANTON - 4 horses and 2 places and a price gapper in such a small field must be acknowledged.
Osric is that horse - 1.2 to place is reasonable for a price gapper in such a small field. 212 in handicap chases last 3 races and has Barry Geraghty. Back to 2 miles again after having run over 2 mile 4 and 2 mile 3 in last 2 races, but has run over 2 miles over chase fences.
Has been either first or 2nd in last 5 runs.
Has been either first or 2nd in last 5 runs.
320 WINCANTON - Gibb River is 1/3 and a huge price gapper in this novices hurdle - Barry Geraghty should nurse him home. 1.18 to win and 1.08 to place.
SHORTLIST
315 CLONMEL - a case of whether Willie Mullins continues Mullering the opposition. Bishopsfurze has a great chance of placing in an 8 runner race, for 3 places where 4 are under 16/1 and there are only 2 horses under 10/1
250 WINCANTION - Ozric is in a 4 horse race for 2 places and is the price gapper. 1.2 to place is reasonable and has tackled chase fences the last 3 races never finishing out of the front 2.
Slight concern with a drop in trip to 2 miles which will quicken up the jumping ( greater risk of a mistake?)
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