Football wise, there are some very appealing bigger odds bets in Man City at 1.47, Man Utd at 1.48 away, and Villareal at 1.28.
Safer bets appear to be Barcelona at 1.16, and a potential lay may be Marseille at 1.16, as their recent goalscoring record is poor.
Everton v Blackpool should see goals and I would lump Everton in with The bigger odds selections at 1.38, given they have scored 2,2,2,1 in their last 4 matches.
6 nations and backing France and Ireland in a double with Betfair pays out 1.27 and that is vrey appealing indeed.
***** 7pm - Villareal v Levante - back Villareal in the Match Odds at 1.28*****
Yes, before you ask, my Mum's Sunday Best fits me fine, a bit tight around the manboobs, but I think I look great in it. Yes, Fortuna and Zwolle was amazingly 0-0, and I am angry with myself for not taking the poor 2011 Zwolle form for what it was, poor form full stop!
Those who followed me on Credit crunched earlier got 1.42 at the off, and far better earlier on. He placed 2nd and was a welcome boost.
Bursaspor had to win, and did win 2-1.
2pm - Bangor City v Haverfordwest - 1.2 home - dominant in head to heads with 6-0 win this year already, the question is wether Bangor are up for the Cup. Haverford have lost their last 4. Goals could be the call here judged by head to heads. Also remember a team soundly thrashed has an opportunity to tighten its defence and ensure another 6-0 is not forthcoming.
2pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor - 1.37 home - 5th and 13 points off the pace are Besiktas playing 11th today. Besiktas, at home, have been beaten by 7th and 9th, and it is therefore entirely probable that they can be beaten by 11th at home. Besiktas seem to have a sticky patch against mid table opposition.
Against 10th and below, though, they are unbeaten, but against above 10th, they have only won 1 home and away. Karabukspor are 11th so are on the cusp of both section!! WDDWDW last 6 matches at home so they are not losing.
DDDLLLLL for Karabukspor away from home is a big contributing factor to Besiktas being such strong favourites without necessarily setting the world on fire with their home form.
2,5,2,3,4 conceded by Karabukspor away last 5 shows they are in trouble at the back. They have aloready been beaten by Besitkas 4-1 this season and this ties in with recent away goal concessions.
80% of Karab's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. It would seem Karab are newcomers to the top flight in Turkey.
230pm - FC Koln v B Munich - 1.55 away - 16th against 3rd ( and could go 2nd with a win away). Miles away from runaway leaders Dortmund, Bayern can still go 2nd . Koln have lost 3 at home, and done most of their losing away from home. They have only played Dortmund of the top 6 at home and lost 2-1. Difficult to really gauge how Koln set up against the big boys.LWDLWLDWL makes Koln a little unreadable from a betting perspective. Their last match was a 3-0 defeat by St Pauli. If this is true to form, and Bayern beat St Pauli 3-0, then Bayern must batter this lot into submission. I think Robben might be playing as well, and he's worth a goal or 2.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - defensive naivete and attacking promise will only get you so far! The wheels are falling off for Blackpool. I missed another over 2.5 goals at home mid week much to my disgust. away they have played differently.A win can take Everton as high as 10th ( other results going their way too). 3 points is much needed. This is the shortest price I remember against Blackpool for some time, which is testament to the poor form.
3 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats at home for Everton..Poor form.12 draws in total this season is 12 points from a possible 36. That's why they are where they are.2,2,2,1 scored in their last 4 matches show Everton are in reasonable form of late. They scored first against Arsenal away before succumbing. You would think they could score first against Blackpool.
DLLDWD not exactly the home form that would have you emptying the bank account and lumping on Everton. A 2-2 draw at Blackpool again warns against another D!
6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool and they have hit the "wall".
Blackpool's last 6 matches were over 2.5 goals ( albeit 5 at home and 1 away). Their recent solidity away was broken by conceding 3 against West Brom where previously they had let in only 1 in 3 away .
Blackpool have conceded 3,2,3,3 last 3 matches so expect goals today? Everton are priced to score , that's for sure.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - without much research I could foresee goals here. WLWWW last 5 for City at home - they scored 4 against Villa and Wolves. Look great enhanced bet territory if West Brom score first. All 3 West Brom matches away to top 4 have been over 2.5 goals.
2,2,3,2,3,3,2,2 conceded by West Brom in their last 8 matches and that is mighty consistent concession of goals.
3pm - Stranraer v Motherwell - 1.41 away - Division 3 v Premiership and I keep saying it, I love seeing big gaps in Cup matches. Although Motherwell have lost their last 3, 2 were 1-0's in a better league. 4 of Stranraer's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( in the Cup and in Division 3) so this hints at vulnerability at the back.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - knee jerk reaction? - Quite a generous price for an unbeaten United, but factors in the away draws they have accumulated. Man Utd have won the last 6 head to heads, but there is only one recent head to head at Wolves, and that was in 2010 , a 1-0 win for United.
One thing I noted from the highlights of Wolves' last game was how good their goalkeeper Hennessey was. But one thing I noticed from United's last match was how good Shrek was, scoring 2.
Wolves have a game in hand over 2nd and 3rd from bottom so could sneak up 2 places to 3rd from bottom with a win. United have a nice 5 point cushion over the chasing pack.
This match is, as you can imagine, top versus bottom.
The ridiculous back pass in the last match ensured Wolves are now 16 games without a draw. This really is a massive stat, but when will it end? How about against a team who keep drawing away from home?
LLLLWLWLWLWLLL in their recent matche for Wolves. They alternated between winning and drawing but have returned to a losing streak of 3 currently.
At home against the top 6, Wolves lost 2-0 to Arsenal but beat Man City 2-1, beat Chelsea 1-0 ( but this is a different Chelsea now) , and beat Sunderland 3-2.
Man Utd must be aware that Wolves seem to raise their game at home to the big boys.
LLWWLWL at home last 7 matches for Wolves. Yes, they don't do draws currently.
In running players beware. Wolves have conceded 13 times in the last 15 minutes of matches ( they need Stevie Gerrard to send round some Lucozade)
8 draws and 3 wins away from home for United - imagine if those draws had been turned into 3 points, they may as well give the title to them!
DDDWDW last 6 matches and interestingly United are playing the 3 promoted sides away in recent matches. They beat West Brom away, beat Blackpool away famously, and now face Wolves. 3 wins out of 3?
Man Utd have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season so they should be the first goalscorers first half? Back United in the NEXT GOAL market?
3 game winning streak for United sees them scoring 5,3,3 ( 1 away v Blackpool). Surely they have too much for a struggling Wolves side?
6pm - Marseille v Arles - 1.18 home - home team are one of 6 teams separated by 2 points just outside of the top 2 in a tight challenging group at the head of the league. When priced, therefore, at 1.18, and at home, they must take the 3 points to manoevre themselves out of this merry band. 5th playing bottom of the league , Marseille have drawn 4 of their last 5 ( remember I ignored Zwolle's poor recent form when they were expected to score and win last night) and seem to find goalscoring poor of late. How about this for a poor goalscoring record recently for Marseille 0,0,1,1,0,2,0. 2 0-0's in their last 3, albeit away from home. Marseille have won the 5 home matches played against 6th to 15th in the league but struggle with the top and bottom of the leagues, with 2 draws against 2nd and 3rd from bottom. DWDDW in last 5 home matches.
Arles have only one win all season and with Marseille beating them 3-0 already this season, and Arles coincidentally losing away 4-1,4-0,3-1 to the 3 top 6 teams they have played away, the draw problems for marseille could be resolved this evening. Because of this draw problem, the only option would be a trading one. Alternatively, for a bit of value, look to over 3.5 goals if you think that Marseille can replicate their 3 goals despite being a little goal shy of late.
Arles have scored only 11 all season so a goal from Marseille could seal matters.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - top by 1 point to Twente so another must win with home advantage , otherwise the door is open to twente and Ajax to creep nearer and eventually overtake. PSV at home have dropped points against 2nd and 4th only and won the rest. Great evidence to back them today?WWLWWWW recent home form 3,10,0,4,5,3,2, scored by PSV in those matches. Apart from scoring none against Twente, they have been consistently scoring 2 or more goals.
PSV have not played 7,th,8th,9th,10th at home yet, ( ADO are 7th) so we cannot really see them perform against teams similar to ADO in the league.
2-2 away draw when they met this season, so goals a safer option perhaps? 82% of home matches over 2.5 goals for PSV. Opposition have only led at halftime in 9.5% of matches - yet again NEXT GOAL PSV appeals?
ADO have only lost 4 matches away from home, but did lose against 2nd and 4th, and beat 3rd ( Ajax) 1-0.
LLWDLDW away for ADo of late. May look ok, but the wins have come against bottom 3 sides.
Current winning streak of 3, but these 3 are the bottom 3 so take this winning streak with a pinch of salt.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - as we know Genk drew 1-1 and this has aided Anderlecht no end - 3 points clear. it is a tight top 3 so if Anderlecht are at home and so short, they must win. St Truiden were the team who went against the stats v Genk and scored in the first half. They drew against Genk and that was some feat given Genk were so solid at home.
Draws at home have come against 4th,5th and 10th and they have won the rest including a 2-0 away win at St Truiden.
13 match unbeaten run and WDWDWW at home latest .2 1-1 draws on the trot now for St Truiden, and guess who they were against? Yes, 2nd and 3rd. A potential niggle here. Surely the probability is against drawing the top 3 1-1 on 3 consecutive matches?
Against 3rd to 7th, St Truiden have lost away. Anderlecht are shorter than Genk were mid week ( when Genk scored first) 1-1 looks layable -it could occur of course but probability wise, it would be something!
Only one win away for St Truiden was against bottom side.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - the yellow submarines have the in form Guiseppe Rossi banging in the goals and look real contenders this year. Within touching distance of a poorly inconsistent Real Madrid side who I wouldn't back with an IMF bailout at the moment. 5 match winning streak at home for Villareal. Have won 7 and lost 2 in last 9 ( 2 losses away, one to Real Madrid) 10 wins and a single draw at home for Villareal. They now expect to win at home. Levante are 18th and against 17th and 19th at home, Villareal have won 2-0 both times.
No draw in 9 for Villareal - lay the draw?
5 game losing streak for Levante ended with a home win against Getafe.
8 losses, 2 draws and a sole win away from home. Levante have scored in 9 of 11 matches away from home, so enhanced traders get ready to pounce if Levante take the lead.
The form points to a Villareal win which takes them to within 3 points of Real madrid ) although Real are playing this evening too) I think.LLLLDLLL away for Levante. Looks like can't win away v can't stop winning at home.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - they usually deliver at this price with a win and with goals. Fortuna v Zwolle 0-0 taught us there is no such thing as a sure thing though! I still have to do my research.15 match winning run in the league and can heap more misery on Real by beating Athletico Madrid. Last 13 Barca matches have been overs and a 2nd string beat Almeria with ease in the Cup. Enhance odds with halftime/fulltime or over 2.5, even over 3.5 goals. Athletico have already lost 2-1 to Barca , and lost away to 2nd and 3rd 2-0, so expect the same this evening. LWLL last 4 away , win was against bottom side Malaga.
The only puzzle we need answering is whether to enhance the odds with ht/ft barca/barca or goals bets.
6 nations sees Italy v Ireland (1.17) and france v Scotland (1.17 France). Immediately I am drawn to the double. Odds of 1.27 are perfectly reasonable with Betfair Multiples. I am not a big egg chasing expert but I suspect we can oppose a 1.35 favourite for the wooden spoon and 2nd fav for that particular accolade ( Scotland) away from home.
MULTIPLE?
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A reasonable lay multiple covering the draw in all matches. To boost the odds further consider taking one lay out and replacing it with Barcelona win . Some risks with cup matches and away sides ( Bayern and Motherwell) but has a good chance of coming in. No Real Madrid to cock this one up!!
130 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Sprinter Sacre, 7/2 Kazzene, 13/2 Fishoutofwater, 20/1 Journeyman, 20/1 Sorcillera, 50/1 Sanctuary, 100/1 Lady From Ige, 100/1 Special Cuvee.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even a repeat of his Ascot second should be good enough for SPRINTER SACRE and there's good reason to believe he can improve any amount on that form. The juvenile Kazzene is the obvious danger, though Fishoutofwater remains promising.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
I talked recently in my eletter about these races - 3 under 20/1 and each way alternatives in either Kazzene or Fishoutofwater to exploit any mistakes from Sprinter Sacre. Looks, though, an ideal opportunity for Sprinter to place under Barry geraghty - now 1/3 and Kazzene is 7/2 and looks like today's Credit crunched?
240 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Oscar Whisky, 10/1 Black Jack Blues, 10/1 Won In The Dark, 14/1 Barizan, 25/1 Tarkari.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR WHISKY not only boasts the best form but also the most potential and needs to win this well to stand his ground in the Champion Hurdle market. There should be no messing around with Barizan and Black Jack Blues in opposition, but Won In The Dark looks the one for forecast backers.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
The Cheltenham horses get a run out. And should oblige if they are to stand any chance at the Festival.
415 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Loose Preformer, 9/4 Iron Chancellor, 5/1 Swingkeel, 7/1 Our Island, 10/1 Definite Dawn, 14/1 Giveabobback, 100/1 Fair Rome, 100/1 Florence May, 100/1 Lady Dixton, 100/1 Little Frano.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Iron Chancellor was game in defeat here last time but again may have to play second fiddle to a Nicky Henderson inmate with LOOSE PREFORMER expected to improve markedly on his Doncaster run over this more suitable trip.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Could be a good day for Geraghty. Loose Performer is one of only 3 under 16/1 and this is another each way value alternative race with Swingkeel the probable each way alternative?
No immediate choices from Lingfield.
155 SANDOWN - cut and paste has locked again! Binocular is 1/12 and the value is in guessing which of Siberian Tiger and Dorabelle will place 2nd, because you will get a much better payout solving that puzzle than backing Bincocular who should win with jockey reading a newspaper and sipping a gin and tonic.
SHORTLIST
This looks a day of several opportunities and I hate picking just one.
2pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor - 1.37 home - the away side have conceded 2 or more in their last 5 matches away - the sigth of a correct score 2 market hints that Betfair may consider 4+ goals from Besiktas.1.21 over 1.5 goals will include both sides. 80% of karab's away matches are over 2.5 goals, and this is most likely a draw or home win.
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - 6 losses in last 7 for Blackpool - reality finally dawning? The shortest price for some time against Blackpool. Everton have scored 2,2,2,1 last 4 matches and should be able to score first?1.19 over 1.5 goals and 1.58 over 2.5 goals.
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - title contenders should be beating promoted sides at home. 1.47 very enticing. Perhaps a safer bet is the over 1.5 goals at 1.24 or the over 1.5 goals ( to trade) at 1.74
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away- standout stats? United are unbeaten this season. United have conceded 5 goals in the first half all season ( and 2 of them were against Blackpool!) Ultra strong stat that indicates United are the most likeliest first goal scorers? NEXT GOAL market is illiquid.
Enhanced traders? If Wolves score first, consider laying them or backing United. Will United break the away draw hoodoo? This is the 3rd of the promoted sides they are playing very recently and they are 2/2 currently. A clean sweep with a win over Wolves.
I would consider backing Man Utd at 1.48 to trade.
645pm - PSV v ADO Den Haag - 1.31 home - in only 9.5% of matches are PSV's opponents leading at half time -back PSV NEXT GOAL? - illiquid market again alas. Must win really for PSV and should win. 82% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals so over 1.5 goals at 1.13 is obvious, 1.42 over 2.5 goals and 2.02 over 3.5 goals for speculative traders.
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home - stick or twist? An intriguing match. Sint Truiden have drawn 1-1 with both 2nd and 3rd in the league in their last 2 matches. Anderlecht are top and are their next match. Surely it is too much to expect that Sint Truiden draw 1-1 again and complete the hatrick against the top 3? 1-1 is 15.5 if you think they can defy the probability!
1.19 Anderlecht and the market priced them up a lot lower than they did with Genk at home to Sint Truiden. The market thinks this 3rd 1-1 against top 3 sides will not come to fruition today.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - LEvante have lost 7 of last 8 away and Villareal are on a 5 match winning streak. Solid at home, Villareal should win this evening.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - Barcelona have been banging in 3 or more with ultra consistency. Athletico lost 2-0 to 2 of the top 4 away, so expect a similar scoreline this evening. Enhance odds with HT/FT or over 2.5/3.5 goals.
All of the horse races are strong with perhaps Loose Preformer the one to take out for place only purposes.
In Binocular's race, see if you can decide between Siberian Tiger and Dorabella to place?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Everton v Blackpool - 1.38 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.19
3pm - Man City v West Brom - 1.47 home - 1.47 very tempting indeed but suspiciously high. Over 1.5 goals at 1.24 includes both side, one scoring and one conceding.
530pm - Wolves v Man Utd - 1.48 away - the 3rd promoted side in recent meetings for United and they are 2/3 so far with Wolves to go. Wolves home form against top sides is good, bar Arsenal. This is a key part of the season which should see United assert. 1.48 again looks a great price.
16 matches without a draw for Wolves against a team who keep drawing away? It this a sign to back the draw, or will a resurgent United end this draw sequence away?
7pm - Anderlecht v Sint Truiden - 1.21 home -intriguing - will St Truiden draw 1-1 against a top 3 side for the 3rd consecutive match? Anderlecht look to stop this draw trend tonight and probability wise, they should.
7pm - Villarreal v Levante - 1.28 home - could be the one a day contender at the odds today.
9pm - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.16 home - looks safe but can we enhance the odds?
Betfair is down currently so I cannot look at the updated horse prices, but would take Loose Preformer out of today to place in the 415 FFOS LAS
I was going to offer you another multiple but Betfair is down. It would have been a little more riskier and include the following
Back Villareal
Back Barcelona
Back Anderlecht ( but consider hedging in the live betting market if they lead)
Lay Blackpool
Lay West Brom
Lay Wolves ( again perhaps hedge if United take the lead, given Wolves form against Chelsea and Man City at home)
Lay ADO Den Haag
Lay FC Koln
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