28/2

SAnother very tricky Monday with very little appeal from the football, as West Brom might surprise under new management. But then again they might not. We just don't know. Stoke look like they can keep West Brom from scoring and nick a goal themselves , but I have seen it time and time again that new management can suddenly change a team.

So it looks like the horse racing today and the 340 Catterick or 500 Wolves?

340 Catterick is a hurdles race and 3 under 20/1 should allow those 3 a great opportunity to place only. A bridge too far would be my default bet to place as the current market leader. My concern is that he has only had one run and so we cannot be concrete about his jumping being reliable. What we can be sure about though is the reliability of McCainjr and Maguire.

The 500 Wolves sees the incomparible Fanninf/Johnston on a strong market leader who was a good 2nd on debut.

Niggles? 3 newcomers and 1 other one time outer who could improve.

Still I feel Black pond has a great chance, currently one of 3 under 20/1

The place only market is a little illiquid currently and there are no obstacles.

***** 500 WOLVES - BLACK POND TO PLACE ONLY*****

If the market is illiquid, take Betfair SP. 1.14 currently and a hope for that or a higher price.

Thank the Betting Gods that Benfica don't like draws. A 90th minute winner from one of the Coen Brothers ( Coentrao) ensured the winning run moves to 17 and they have not drawn now in 45 matches.

We saw yesterday a hint of vulnerability and that against the right opposition this sequence will end.

A note for those who could watch and follow the horse racing. Celestial Halo's race saw some late non runners and still 3 places on Betfair. If you spot these situations, you must make these your one a day, as the probability that an original favourite will not place when there are plenty of non runners, is slim.

West Ham showed the power of a team with backs against walls who must win - they almost always will win! I am glad I left the Carling Cup Final alone - it was a great example of the unpredictability of one off matches.

4pm - CSKA Moscow v Shinnik Yaroslavl - 1.35 home - Russian Cup match so faith in the match odds rather than any form analysis. Head to heads end 2008 but are ominous - 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 - the 1-0's shared between the teams.

These head to heads may be redundant now as it would seem Shinnik were relegated?

The last league match was 28th November for CSKA but they have kept themselves busy with friendlies and Europa League matches but , since the league ended it has been WDDDDWD and to be honest the last 2 matches were Europa League against Greek opponents so tactics and Greek defenses played a part.

Shinnik are a Division 2 side now. 8 draws, 2 wins and 2 losses in last 12 - those bleeping draws again.

Faith in top flight beating division 2?

4pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Montana - 1.47 home - 0-0, 0-1, 0-1 for Sofia away from home - very tight indeed. As with the Russians, the Bulgarians have been on hiatus over the winter. It can be dangerous to get involved in the first match in a return to domestic action when all you have is international club friendlies so this is a match in which I will instill some discipline.

For what it is worth, Montana have lost their last 6 matches, including only 2 recent friendlies, conceding 2,3,1,3,4,3 .1-1, 1-1, 0-1 loss for Sofia.

715pm - Augsburg v Erzgebirge - 1.65 home - Bundesliga 2 and my last visit there was a successful one. 1.65 for the home side worth investigating as it is a quiet day. 3rd in the league and a game in hand. A win takes Augsburg 2nd. Last head to head was 3-2 for Erzgebirge. Previous head to heads began 2008 which indicates one of these 2 sides was new to this league. 3rd v 5th, this is likely to be well matched. 44 points plays 43 points in a tight head of the league.

Only 2 losses at home, one against 2nd in the league.

WWWWDWLD - last 4 at home have seen a winning run end. 0-1, 0-0 in last 2 home matches for Augsburg.

1-1, 0-1, 0-0 against top 6 at home.

We can foresee something a little closer today. The head to head last time saw 2 penalties so was perhaps a niggly affair.

WDWDLLLL away for Erzgebirge perhaps makes them a little vulnerable.

Against the top 7 away from home, Erz have lost 4 and won 1 conceding 2,2,3,6

Only 3 wins away for Erz include 2 1-0's against 13th and bottom side.

The losses against 1st and 2nd came in last 4 away matches for Erz. Can Augsburg make it another away loss to top 3?

No win in 5 away, no draw in 4 away.

Erz are where they are largely due to their home form.

There are no standout stats here for both sides. Only 36% of Erz's away matches have been over 2.5 goals and 55% of Augsburg's home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

745pm - AC Milan v Napoli - 1.9 home - WDDDW in last 5 head to heads for AC Milan. Tight matches generally. Wins were 1-0 and 1-2 Milan away win last time out.

A win takes Napoli 1st (ish) - secondary to Milan on goal difference but same points. Milan are top, Napoli 3rd and they have a game in hand over 2nd placed Inter Milan .

I draw your attention to PSV v Ajax yesterday. Similar clash of 1st v 3rd fizzled out to a 0-0.

This could quite easily be the case this evening. It is so difficult to read a match of such importance.

Milan have not played 2nd or 3rd at home this season, but against 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th, results are 0-0, 4-4, 0-1, 1-2.

Very poor indeed against top current sides in Seria A.

WWWLDWDW at home recently and we see that in the last 5, Milan have let their standards slip with a loss and 2 draws and guess what? 2 draws and the loss was against 4th - 7th in the league.

This hints that Milan may be vulnerable to Napoli and the 1.9 looks immediately layable ( for a lay to back trade)

WDDWWDDWW since the turn of the year home and away for Milan - they are unbeaten but inconsistent.

Only 2 of their last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Milan score an average of 2.07 goals at home, although I suspect this average is helped by scorelines against other than the top 7.

Only 6 goals conceded in the first half by Milan all season, while scoring 25. They have not conceded yet in the first quarter of an hour in all matches this season ( early 0-0 trade for this quarter of an hour perhaps?)

Napoli lost 2-1 at home to Milan, and interestingly against the top 5, have lost the 3 away matches they have played 3-1, 2-0, 3-1 - quite emphatically.

So we have a home team with a poor home record against the top 7, meeting an away side with a poor away record against the top 4.

What will give today?

10 of Napoli's last 12 matches have seen Napoli clean sheets. The 2 matches without clean sheets? 3-1 away loss at Inter and 2-0 away loss to Chievo Verona ( the latter quite a surprise I would suspect)

Almost inevitably, 6 of the last 7 matches have been under 2.5 goals.

LLWLWLW away for Napoli - no draw in 9 matches away.

napoli concede on average 1.07 goals per match away.

A difficult match to read. Under 2.5 goals prevails in recent matches with both sides.

But Milan against top 7 at home are poor.

But Napoli against top 4 have conceded 3,2,3.

But PSV v Ajax was 0-0 and this could be tight with the title pretty much to play for for both sides.

745pm - Fortuna Sittard v Go Ahead Eagles - yes Fortuna have tightened their belts recently but still that amazing early 100% over 2.5 goals record of theirs makes me want to list them here to look at.2-0 ( go home win), 2-0 ( fortuna home win), 3-0 ( go home ) last 3 head to heads has seen over 1.5 goals at least. 1.27 currently for over 1.5 goals.

LWLDW last 5 at home featured 2 matches under 2.5 goals.

0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 3-1 home win in last 4 and Fortuna seem to have turned an ever so slight corner. Indeed 2 of their last 6 matches only have been over 2.5 goals where previously it was 100% .

In the 4 matches home and away against bottom 3 sides, all 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals for Go Ahead.

They beat Fortuna 3-0 at Go ahead.

10/11 matches away have been over 1.5 goals.

Go ahead have conceded in all of their away matches this season and only failed to score in 9% of their away matches. This could help the over 1.5 goals cause.

DDDDDLL away for Go ahead recently - the draws were obviously score draws.

No win in 9 away matches for Go Ahead.

3 of go aheads last 4 matches were 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 ( all at home mind but all a sign that they might have tightened up?)

8pm - Stoke v West Brom - 1.96 home - IN the last 4 head to heads, Stoke have won the lot, including 2 at home and 3 in Premiership encounters. The last 2 head to heads were away wins for Stoke 2-0 and 3-0 and we can make a possible argument that Stoke are a bogey team for West Brom?

The difference between Stoke in 11th and West Brom in 19th ( 2nd bottom) is 8 places but only 6 points.

3 points are Golum-like " precious" for both sides. Stoke may think they are clear but it unfavourable results could leave those below climbing with Stoke possibly sliding.

A win for West Brom takes them to provisional 16th.

Will Woy wescue West Bwom?

A point to note! It is often difficult to gauge the effect a new manager has on a side so betting on matches under these circumstances could be difficult. Logically, Di Matteo had a certain philosophy. Woy will have a diffewent philosophy with Pwemiership survival key.

All previous stats therefore may be redundant if West Brom adopt a different playing style.

Onto some stats a new manager cannot impact, and that is the stats for Stoke.

Stoke have only played one of the bottom 4 at home this season and that was a 1-1 draw so it is a little inconclusive.

Decent enough home form. 2 home losses against top 4 ( 2-1 losses) not entirely unexpected and 2 further losses v Fulham and Blackpool.

WWDLLWWW recent home for - losses v Blackpool and Fulham in that run seems to be banished by 3 home wins.

But the longest unbeaten run for Stoke has been 3 matches. They always lose after going 3 unbeaten.

Will that happen today or can they buck the trend?

3 home wins and 5 away losses in last 8 contribute to no draws in last 11 matches. Very Jekyll and Hyde for home and away form.

Comprehensive 3-0 beating of West Brom at WEst Brom last time out.

Stoke score a massive 77% of their goals in the 2nd half, so if the first half is quiet , expect some action from Stoke after the break.

West Brom - new manager could change everything stats wise from the attacking passing game of Di Matteo to a more pragmatic approach, you would think, from Woy.

9 defeats, 2 draws and 2 wins for West Brom away from home.

69% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. They score , on average, 1 goals and concede 2.23 goals away from home in each match.

3 draws in their last 4 matches may signal a change in fortune ( but 3 draws at home)

LWLLLLL away for West Brom latest - 4 over 2.5 goals matches and 3 others with 2 goals .

West Brom have no prominent away goalscorer. Odemwingie has scored 9, 7 of which came at the Hawthorns.

7 away matches without a draw for WEst Brom and they really need 3 points.

7 of the last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals - the 2 not were 2 goal total matches.

340 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 A Bridge Too Far, 7/2 Total Submission, 6/1 Shadows Lengthen, 12/1 Moonlight Blaze, 12/1Wychwoods Kaddy, 16/1 Nelson´s Chief, 16/1 Quel Elite, 16/1 Umverti, 20/1 Dr Flynn, 25/1 Brave Spartacus, 25/1 Quelle Chance, 50/1 Andy Vic, 50/1 Royal Willy, 50/1 The Tiddly Tadpole, 100/1 Lucky Lukey, 100/1 Miss Galross.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent Wetherby winner A Bridge Too Far and TOTAL SUBMISSION look the pair to focus on in an interesting novice hurdle. Preference is for the latter, who will appreciate the drop in grade after four outings at Cheltenham this term.[Andrew Mount]

Only 3 under 20/1 , the apparent mover is Shadows lengthen. Trust, though, A bridge too far under McCain jr and Maguire?

250 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Evella, 7/4 Asturienne, 7/1 Gan On, 10/1 Present Gem, 66/1 Karingabay Queen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's not surprising to see cheekpieces on Asturienne after her laboured win at Folkestone latest and, while that may help, there seems little reason to oppose EVELLA in her quest for the hat-trick.[Dave Orton]

Will Evella and Asturienne dominate? They make up most of the market.

330 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dubai Hills, 5/2 Captain Ramius, 3/1 Below Zero, 6/1 Sioux Rising.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The much-improved Dubai Hills is the one to beat if transferring his Fibresand improvement to Polytrack, but there are no doubts about CAPTAIN RAMIUS who will be suited by the return to today's trip after an encouraging return at Lingfield.[Adrian Cook]

Faith in Frank on Captain Ramius to place in an apparent 3 horse-2 place race if we can ignore now 9/1 Sioux rising.

500 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Black Pond, 9/4 Arizona High, 4/1 Sim Sala Bim, 10/1 Aimee Tricks, 66/1 Needwood Ridge, 66/1Tuscany Red.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The well-related BLACK POND can go one better at the expense of Arizona High and Sim Sala Bim.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 20/1 and Black Pond ( yes you've guessed it - Johnston/Fanning) is fav and has a great chance not only to place, but to win.

3 newcomers could be anything but there has been no significant support for them in the betting at this admittedly early stage.

600 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sweet Origin, 5/1 Layla´s Dancer, 5/1 Straversjoy, 7/1 Hallstatt, 7/1 Jeer, 14/1 Beetuna.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be more to come from SWEET ORIGIN now handicapping and he is preferred toStraversjoy and Hallstatt.[Adrian Cook]

Price gapper in such a small field must be respected.

SHORTLIST

They should just take Mondays out of the betting week altogether for all the good they do me. Another day to get the old grey matter working overtime.

4pm - CSKA Moscow v Shinnik Yaroslavl - 1.35 home - betting blind, you'd have to go with the reputation and home advantage of CSKA. After all, in this close season, there is little else to go on bar the fact CSKA have been kept ticking over with Europa League football. Highly speculative and will never be a one a day bet!

715pm - Augsburg v Erzgebirge - 1.65 home - this could be tight as 2 teams, separated by a point, meet. Erz won the fixture 3-2 at their place, but away from home their form is poor enough for me to consider a lay of Erz rather than a back of Augsburg, despite the latter having decent enough home form.

745pm - Fortuna Sittard v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.27 over 1.5 goals looks very appealing despite an apparent change in tack by Fortuna which began with a quite unbelievable 0-0 draw v Zwolle. Reputation could ensure that at least 2 goals are forthcoming. Go ahead eagles have conceded in all away matches this season.

340 CATTERICK - 1.36 for a Bridge too far is a good price. We would have to rely on the front 3 in the market all dominating in a race of 3 under 20/1 and , of course, the wearisome caveat that all must complete . A bridge too far has now changed to the McCain jr stable and has only had one run. So we must bear in mind the relative inexperience as against the fact only 3 horses are under 20/1

There are no ground concerns at Catterick today.

330 WOLVES - front 2 are at 6/4 and should dominate but old Fanning/Johnston wait in the wings at 11/2 on Below Zero.

Instinctually I would side with Captain Ramius as Dubai Hills is a multiple winner on a very different Southwell fibresand.

500 WOLVES - Black Pond stands out for me today, albeit in another race that is far from clear cut. 3 under 20/1 currently and 3 debutants who have not yet been backed in the betting as I write ( some 5 hours prior to race time.)

If Black Pond maintains the current 1.14 ( very illiquid place only market) then he looks great to place ( only 2 places)

Always a chance of retained "greenness" on only his 2nd outing, the race analyst of Black Pond's last run points to a hope for "significant improvement" next time.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

715pm - Augsburg v Erzgebirge - 1.65 home - decent enough home record v poor away record. Lay Erzgebirge albeit with the 3-2 Erz win in last head to head fresh in the memory ( I told you Monday was not easy!)

340 CATTERICK - am I missing something or is the 1.36 for A Bridge too far rather generous in a race where only 3 are under 20/1. I suppose it acknowledges the fact the horse has only had the one hurdles run so confidence in jumping ability obviously is based on too small a sample under race conditions.

500 WOLVES - Black Pond looks primed to win, never mind place , here. Only 3 under 20/1 - another with only the single run where he was rather green, but it was at Wolves, it was encouraging, and Blackpond should improve and be very competitive here for the superb Johnston/Fanning.

Niggles? 3 newcomers - 2 are at 66/1 and one at 28/1 currently. Any significant move in these 3 could put the bet at jeopardy in the 5 hours to race time.

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