1/3

I have missed plenty of opportunities of late involving Premiership sides at decent odds against lower league opponents. Surely Everton have the capabilities to overcome Reading whose 4 score draws in their last 5 matches might signal concern.

Elsewhere I am taken by Siena at home to Triestina . The table indicates they should win by 2 minimum. I would insist on trading if they go 2-0 up this time.

Portsmouth and Scunthorpe's recent matches indicate potential tight affair tonight. Scunthorpe have not scored in last 5 away matches and Pompey's last 4 matches have seen clean sheets and last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 1.41 under 3.5 goals and 1.15 under 4.5 goals is interesting here, particularly the former.

Horse racing wise, faith in Timesawastin again? Soft ground here and a violent hanging left last time nearly cost me the one a day. He was 25 lengths infront of 4th so that hangng did not cost him on this occasion as it meant he hit the last fence and lost momentum.

This race indicates only 4 or 5 should be considered. Can Timesawastin reach the business end with enough to spare to compensate for any potential hanging?

it is a difficult day to decide, hence the relative lateness of the message.

***** 730PM - EVERTON V READING - BACK EVERTON IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.49*****

I have missed the boat with the other Premier League teams against lower league.

The Racing Post reminds us that Everton tend to stall against teams on paper they should beat, and with Reading score drawing 4 of their last 5 away, there is a distinct possibility of a draw. I would, though, suggest that , if you can, trade out if Everton lead and especially if they lead going into the final 10 minutes by a single goal.

I hope I do not rue participation in a Cup match but in Saha and Beckford, Everton have 2 players scoring in the better Premiership.

Now you know why I should insist on maidens/bumpers being looked at nearer the off. The 5 hours up to the 500pm Wolves changed the dynamic of the race dramatically.

Blackpond was 1.14 to place when I wrote, and 1.42 at the off. Highly suspicious and would never have been a one a day with that knowledge ( missing at time of writing yesterday).

Sim Sala Bim was backed into 10/11 favouratism from an initial 4/1 - that was not available to me at time of writing.

Quite clearly this move was significant but only developed nearer the race time.

And then we have the perennial dark horse. He won, shuffling the gamble Sim Sala Bim to neck 2nd and Black Pond to 1/2 length 3rd and thus unplaced.

So in future I will not be putting up maidens and bumper horses 5 hours hence. And it is even more frustrating when all this unravels before my eyes yet I have no way to relay my concerns.

And all the while the 340 Catterick went like clockwork and I missed a nice 1.36.

3pm - Anzhi Makhachkala v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.6 away - the Russian Cup and a warning served up by CSKA yesterday - struggling to a 1-0 win. These 2 are both Division 1 sides and in cup matches I generally look for gulfs in the leagues just to make my life easier of course! The Russian League is in haitus at the moment which makes form analysis difficult.

There are only 2 head to heads of interest , in 2010 . ( The previous meeting was 2002) . These head to heads are characterised by over 2.5 goals ( 2-1 and 3-3 ) and with Zenit leading at some stage in the 90 minutes ( traders take note)

We only really have club friendlies as recent form, as well as Europa League for Zenit who spanked Young Boys ( so to speak) 3-1 last time out.

You would expect Zenit not to lose really but how will they approach this Russian Cup ( is it the Russian equivalent of the Carling Cup for instance?)

A neutral goals bet looks safer. Market expects a Zenit win.

5pm - Ferencvaros v Siofok - 1.48 home - Hungarian Cup and again we have 2 teams from the same league . The Hungarian season is one match old and consequently there is no strong competitive form in which to make any strong assumptions. Take your cues from the market.

730pm - Everton v Reading - 1.49 home - nice 2-0 home win against Sunderland ( and if you read my research , that was not entirely unexpected) should lead in nicely for Everton this evening. FA Cup so of greater importance for Everton from the perspective of a way into Europe.

Head to heads are inconclusive as they end in 2008 - 1-0 shared by both teams in last 2 head to heads but a lot has changed for both sides since.

Everton kept Chelsea at bay last time out with a 0-0 and nicked it in extra time. They must be confident now that they have a real chance of reaching the final with the holders out.

Reading had a far easier round against Stevenage.

Home advantage sees Everton ready favourites but the quote near to 1.49 tells you the market is fairly confident - just "fairly!"

Premier league v Championship and we have a gap in the league ( of sorts - not as big a gap as I would normally like)

Everton have lost 3 at home in the Premiership , once to Arsenal , Newcastle and West Brom.

DWDWW recently at home should instil an element of confidence.

2,2,5,2 scored by Everton last 4 home matches in the League.

Reading away have lost to 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league . I would equate these with bottom half Premiership sides and this will give you an idea of the expected result this evening. A tight enough game but an eventual Everton win.

DDLLDDWD recently for Reading and away, DLWDLDD - draws the problem.

Of course it is so difficult to say that Reading will play in a certain way today because this is a one off FA Cup match.

I draw your attention to the performances in the FA Cup of Premiership clubs against lower league opponents and quite simply, with some at far better odds than Everton, they have blown their opponents off the park with ease.

Will Everton continue in this vein?

730pm - Wisla Krakow v Podbeskidzie B-B - 1.42 home - Polish Cup and only one head to head 1-0 Wislaw win in a friendly. Another European League returning from a break. Only 1 match in so no strong form lines. Podbeskidzie play in Division 2 and have only been playing friendlies recently. Go with the market here? We have a marginal gulf in the leagues here!

745pm - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.26 home - Chelsea have a game in hand over Man Utd and 2 games in hand over Man City. They are pretty much out of the title race unless United and Arsenal play the rest of the season wearing blindfolds and tying their goalkeepers'hands behind their backs.

This game has equal significance for both sides - Europe for Chelsea and the title for United. Chelsea are now out of the FA Cup which was one avenue to Europe.

They have yet to meet this season. The Community Shield is not an accurate assessment as regards head to heads.

Chelsea did the double over United last season.

LWLLDDDLWDLWWWLD -recent form for Chelsea - the wheels are -a-wobblin'.

Mini revival recently against Blackburn, Bolton and Sunderland, but the top 5 is a different kettle of fish.

LDWDWL - recent home form perfectly encapsulates the inconsistency in Chelsea.

Although Chelsea score an average of 2 goals per match at home ( 6-0 and 4-0 against promoted sides may have skewed this average) , only 33% of their home matches finish over 2.5 goals.

Chelsea have not played 1st, 3rd or 4th at home this season so we cannot gauge how they perform. Against 6th and 7th it is 1-0 win and 1-0 loss so perhaps a tight match in prospect this evening.

Away from home for United against top 5 and we have seen 2 0-0's against Man City and Spurs. coincidence? Or is this the way Fergie approaches the top teams away?

3 matches away now without a draw sees 2 wins and a loss ( only loss of the season)

8 of United's last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals which includes the 0-0 draw v Spurs and the 2-1 home win over City.

DDDWDWLW for Man Utd away from home. 3 wins in last 5 matches are slowly putting the draw curse to bed.

WWDWWWLWW for United since the turn of the year ( the draw 0-0 away at Spuds may be an ominous sign for this evening?)

745pm - Portsmouth v Scunthorpe - 1.64 home - 13th v 22nd today. Pompey have won their last 4 matches and are unbeaten in their last 5. Such confident recent results are perfect against struggling Scunny.

DLDLDLDWW - recent winless streak ended with 2 1-0 wins at home against 15th placed Barnsely and 21st placed Palace

Under 2.5 goals in their last 6 games and a clean sheet in their last 4 matches - have Portsmouth suddenly tightened up at the back? After all, they could not keep a clean sheet in the 9 matches prior to this recent flurry.

6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats at home - hugely inconsistent from Pompey. Do we take this newfound defensive solidity to heart?

Pompey have only played one of the bottom 5 at home, winning 1-0 over Palace, so we really have nothing to go on as regards how they will perform against another bottom 5 side in Scunny.

71% of Pompey's goals are scored in the 2nd half.

There are no real eyecatching stats as regards goal trends overall ( it's 50/50)
Scunthorpe away have have 10 defeats and 6 wins , and consequently no draws.

LLWLLLLL away recently for Scunthorpe - just as Pompey are going on a winning run, Scunny continue their losing away record.

There is a good section of the league in which Scunny have done well. Against 8th to 12th in the league ( remember Pompey are 13th) Scunny have won 4 and lost 1 away . Is this just coincidence or an ability to match those in the middle of the table who have no relegation concerns or, it would seem, title aspirations.

WDWL recently sees 3 unbeaten matches at Scunthorpe - sign of a revival?

Scunthorpe, though, have gone 5 matches away without scoring a goal. This ties in nicely with those unders and clean sheet stats of Pompey's which may lead us to a tight match goals wise with the likelihood that Pompey will be the goalscorers?

Interestingly, Scunthorpe are better away than at home!

745pm - Siena v Triestina - 1.43 home - i am revisiting Siena today as I did some research on them recently. Oh joy!! Only 1 recent head to head and that was 0-0. The Italians join the Greeks as the only nations able to consistently produce YAWN football.

This game is 3rd v 21st of 22 in Seria B and a win takes Siena top on goal difference , dependent on the results of 1st and 2nd.

A win takes Triestina on the brink of 6th from bottom and out of any automatic relegation or relegation play offs. So both have equally valid reasons to win today's match.

+20 meets -12 goal difference.

Siena at home have won 11, drawn 2 and lost 1. Against the bottom 6 sides that they have played at home, Siena have won 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0. Coincidence?

The only loss at home came in the last home match, a 2-3 defeat by Piacenza and I remember this match as I fancied Siena here.

Indeed , Siena were 2-0 up and should have won, but conceded 3 on the trot and lost.

This match forms part of a small cluster of recent results which may raise concerns.

0-0 away, 4-0 home, 0-0 away, 0-0 away, 2-3 home, 0-1 away.

It could just be that Siena have trouble away from home yet remain strong at home. 3 0-0's though but maybe I am over reacting. One was against top of table, and another against 5th in the league so not entirely unexpected.

WWDWWWWL in recent home matches ( I have already told you about the loss -2-0 up!!)

WWDWDDLW recent overall form.

71% of Siena's home matches have been over 2.5 goals and they have kept a home which nears 1 game in 2 at home.

Siena score an average of 2.14 at home

5 wins all season for Triestina , with only 2 away and immediately we see why Siena are 1.43.

Triestina have lost 2-0 and 4-0 away to 2 of the top 4 they have played this season which fits in well with Siena's performances against bottom 5.

WDLLDDWL away recently for Triestina. They're giving it a good go you have to admit, but none of the teams was in the top 7 .

3 of Triestina's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals which is interesting given the likelihood that Siena can score this evening.

6 draws away from home tell us where the potential stumbling block will be this evening as regards a win only bet on Siena.

Triestina have failed to score in only 1 of their last 8 matches which again helps us with a neutral goals bet and a hope that the 0-0 at Triestina in head to heads can be banished.

9pm - Sevilla v Gijon - 1.62 home - you get to know teams as you research them intermittently and Gijon is becoming a team renowned for their defensive capabilities. 7th are playing 4th from bottom. Shared head to heads in last 4 matches is immediately offputting as it tells us that Team A can beat Team B when they want to and Team b can beat Team A when they want to!!

Difficult, therefore, to go down on the side of any one team which leads me to think that a neutral goals bet is the best bet.

Sevilla lost to Gijon away and against 2 sides above Gijon in the league have won 1-0 at home, and 0-0 against team directly below Gijon in the league.

Conflicting stats!!!

LLLWLWDW for Sevilla at home recently. Inconsistency shown here.

Malaga and Hercules were the last 2 home matches ( and I referenced them earlier - bottom half sides 1-0 and 0-0 at home for Sevilla)

Gijon's last 3 matches have been 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 albeit only one of those away from home. 1-1 draw with Barca seems to be the catalyst for a belief in their defensive abilities.

More conflicts here. Against top 5 away, Gijon have kept it tight with a 1-0 loss, 0-0, 1-0 loss.

But ( and remember Sevilla are 7th) against 6th and 8th away from home, Gijon have lost 3-0 and 4-0, the 3-0 as recent as 5th February before they started on their tight recent run og matches .

A tough to read match which we do not have to get involved in . Too many conflicting stats for me which indicate either Gijon keep it tight or get spanked by teams similar to Sevilla's in the league.

220 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Timesawastin, 3/1 Storm Survivor, 7/1 Alonso De Guzman, 10/1 Domos Boy, 10/1 Small Fly, 20/1Going Nowhere Fast, 20/1 Maadraa, 20/1 Tenby Jewel, 25/1 Starry Mount, 40/1 North Stack, 100/1 Sing Of Run.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two to concentrate on are probably STORM SURVIVOR, who shaped encouragingly on his recent hurdling debut, and Timesawastin, who is the form pick and should be bang there once more if he does not hang this time.[Richard Austen]

Maiden hurdle and soft ground and a notable move for Alonso De Guzman into 11/4 2nd favourite. Unproven on soft ground but money looks to be down.

heavy at Leicester so tread warily.

410 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Galaxy Rock, 9/4 Not So Prudent, 25/1 Hommage A Bach, 33/1 Just Unique, 33/1 Rester Vrai.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GALAXY ROCK improved for the fitting of blinkers when winning easily at Ffos Las and he can defy a penalty in a weak race. Not So Prudent is the only realistic danger.[Steven Boow]

Heavy ground novice chase and a favourite who unseated last time out. Yikes!!

Not so prudent an obvious alternative at better odds.

515 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ours, 7/4 City Theatre, 9/4 Persian Gates.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: City Theatre is very tempting off a potentially lenient opening chase mark but the in-form OURS is unlikely to be a pushover. The form of his Hereford win has been boosted and he was a C&D winner off a slightly higher rating two seasons back.[Steven Boow]

3 horse race for 2 places and simply luck of the draw that your choice will not fall in this handicap chase.

420 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bosambo, 2/1 Viking Dancer, 7/2 Uncle Dermot, 100/1 Big City Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good run from Viking Dancer can be expected, but BOSAMBO has the benefit of race-fitness and that ought to give him the edge.[Ron Wood]

Another maiden race which should be a definite 3 horse 2 place race. Bosambo is threatening odds on at the moment.

455 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 York Glory, 7/4 Queen O´the Desert, 8/1 Fairy Tales, 9/1 Demoiselle Bond, 14/1 Abadejo, 33/1Striking Willow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be between YORK GLORY (nap) and Queen O'The Desert, but while the latter sets a fair standard, the former is well fancied to come out on top. The form of his debut effort is set to be tested by Bosambo in the 4.20, but regardless of how that works out, Kevin Ryan's colt is open to significant improvement.[Ron Wood]

Only 3 under 20/1 here makes Fairy Tales at 10/1 the obvious each way bet incase the front 2 falter.

SHORTLIST
3pm - Anzhi Makhachkala v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.6 away - if head to heads are an accurate reflection of the match, then a neutral goals bet may be catered for here. Illiquid market but 1.32 over 1.5 goals is tempting.

We are betting blind though as regards state of pitch, motivation for Zenit too in this Cup match, also injuries or changes to personnel.

730pm - Everton v Reading - 1.49 home - the swear jar has been overflowing recently with the amount of times I have dismissed a Premiership side against lower league opposition only to see said Premiership side batter them into submission with relative ease. Dare I miss out on the toffees today? 1.3 over 1.5 goals might be a safer neutral bet.

745pm - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.26 home - Chelsea look layable here to me. This is likely to be a tight match , although Chelsea really need the win in order to look for a place into Europe now the FA Cup is no more.

Man Utd need a win to consolidate top spot and improve the gap over Arsenal. Chelsea are already up to 2.32. A lay of Chelsea is around a 1.71 back bet. United's 2 0-0's away to top 4 really stand out here as indicating a potential tight match.

1.27 under 3.5 goals is reasonable enough.

745pm - Portsmouth v Scunthorpe - 1.64 home - Scunthorpe have not scored in last 5 away matches and Pompey's last 4 matches have seen clean sheets and last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 1.41 under 3.5 goals and 1.15 under 4.5 goals is interesting here, particularly the former.

745pm - Siena v Triestina - 1.43 home - yes Siena lost 2-3 last week at home when I fancied them, but they were 2-0 up which traders know is the best exit point. The stats indicate that Siena can score 2 or 3 against bottom sides at home, and Triestina conceded 2 and 4 away to 2nd and 4th.

Will this negate the 0-0 earlier in the season?

Heavy ground at Leicester precludes any interest there.

220 FFOS LAS - 3 under 12/1 and 4 under 20/1 should ideally be involved. My concern is soft ground and maiden hurdlers who are still learning. Alonso de Guzman is the interesting market mover into 2nd favourite 1.45 to place. Timesawastin is the favourite at 1.25 to place and has heavy ground form in bumpers.

Timesawatin was a one a dayer last time he ran and I thought he would have thrown the 3rd place away with his hanging left on the run in.

455 LINGFIELD - I must learn from yesterday and approach this maiden nearer the off. As things stand, likely to be dominated by York Glory and Queen of the desert. 1.16 and 1.37 to place.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

This is a toughie today. Will Everton do as other Premiership sides have done and win their cup matches against weaker league opposition with ease?

Will the Chelsea v Man Utd match be another goalless snore draw , or will Chelsea, who need the 3 points, go for it?

Will Siena consent to hold on to a lead this evening or squander another 2-0 like they did last week ( although traders profitted of course)?

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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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