4/3

An umming and ahhing day today. Dortmund should beat a badly poor away from home Koln, but said Koln, overall recently have posted WLWWDW ( albeit the wins at home) Last time these 2 met it was 2-1 Dortmund with a 90th minute Dortmund win. Dortmund have drawn their last 2 prior to the win against St Pauli at home with one of those an own goal.

But what do we make of the 3-1 away win at tough to visit Bayern Munich. Surely this must count for something.

Not the most clear cut 1.34 team I have seen recently.

The same could be argued of Zwolle , who seem to be back to winning ways, winning their last 3 and surely, on all known form , look a cracking prospect at 1.48 against bottom side Almere. Bottom v Top - Almere have only kept a clean sheet in one match and do not want to be facing top with that stat! Almere have lost to all of top 9 at home. And they have scored 11 in last 12 matches quite surprisingly for a bottom side.

So they concede but can score. Will Zwolle continue the record of Top 10 visitors to Almere? I am tempted by this decent price.

Onto the horse racing, and Jacobs Son looks a little too obvious here. 5 2nd places on the trot and 4/5 fav here to place. On the plus side,only 4 under 25/1 should shorten those rivals for the 2 places and surely he has an outstanding chance of placing here . Yes, the negative is there are only 2 places in this maiden.

The 220 newbury sees Moose Moran likely to place, and win, but with only 3 under 25/1 dare we chance McCoy on Two Kisses? 4/1 send fav and an obvious alternative? But worryingly out to 1.6 to place at present.Moose Moran is 1.09 to place which is an improvement on earlier.

*****ONE A DAY -7pm - Almere v Zwolle - back Zwolle in the match odds at 1.48*****

A generous enough price for bottom v top and a home side who have lost all against top 9 sides.

I hope I have made the right choice and don't rue the relative safety of shorter odds. This match is tradable if Zwolle lead at any stage.

McCoy's Two Kisses looks just too big for me at 1.6 to place as one of only 3 under 25/1 One to speculate on for sure here with the ideal to trade off in running?

It was a risk with the Winter Break, but that God for Fergie Time as Shaktar scored the only goal in the 95th minute.

Safer bets Ajax and Real continued to score as per their odds and those speculators who went with goals for these 2 1.17 shots would have been amply rewarded. Elsewhere the Cockney Mackem placed, One Pursuit won the excellent 3 horse, 2 place race at Southwell, Postman placed again, as as I had hoped, Merehead placed at a better price than Romulus D'artaix ( who also placed). Stoneacre Gareth won, and in Meydan, Previs placed under Ryan Moore, and Mendip won under Frankie.

I really hope Betfair do multiples for place only races because we could have some very good days when it all clicks.

1pm - Ironi Nir Ramat HaSharon v Ahva Arraba - 1.31 home - in play - sing along " there's only one Ironi Nir Ramat haSharon" - now I have delved into Israeli top flight only because I recognise Maccaibi haifa and Hapoel Tel Aviv, but it is stretching it a bit to expect me to get stuck into Israeli 2nd flight action! The stats are there for the needy and greedy at www.futbol24.com but I will stick to more familiar territory. The match is in play.

5pm - H Berlin v FSV Frankfurt - 1.4 home - in play - 1-1 and 1-0 away Hertha win ( 88th minute winner) may signal a tight match this afternoon ( tighter than a 1.4 quote might have us believe)

Top v 11th, and 2 point lead at the top makes these home matches ideally wins. 8 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses at home for hertha. Importantly perhaps those 2 losses came recently.

WWLWWLD recently at home

2 of the losses and 1 or the draws all coming in last 5 home matches ( loss and draw in last 2) - a cause for concern?

Hertha's last 7 matches have all been over 2.5 goals so if you sense some vulnerability at home, perhaps a neutral goals bet is the way to go?

Hertha have scored in their last 9 matches.

Hertha have conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches - does this signal a neutral goals bet?

Frankfurt are in poor form, is this exploitable by Hertha?

LLDLLL recently and away LDWDLLLL - they have lost their last 4 away matches.

11 of Frankfurt's last 13 matches have been over 2.5 goals and they have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 14 matches - again, like Hertha, a team who has trouble keeping a clean sheet.

Frankfurt have only failed to score in 11 of their last 13 matches.

Very similar recent stats to Hertha but without the wins that accompanied Hertha's stats.

Away to top 9, it's 6 losses and an anomolous 3-1 win away at Duisburg which stands out like a sore thumb.

530pm - Admira Wacker v Hartberg - 1.26 home - in play - Austrian 2nd division and perhaps not a league we should be prioritising.

6/6 in head to heads for Admira pretty comfortable throughout although only 2-1 last time out.

A league of only 10 surely breeds over familiarty? coming back from the break so difficult to gauge in what shape these teams are in. Both won their matches , Admira 6-0, and hartberg 3-1

530pm - Austria Lustenau v FC Gratkorn - 1.51 home - in play - another Austrian 2nd division match and , as you read, recent return from Winter Break makes this a difficult match to unfathom. So, best to leave alone.

630pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Pandurii - 1.43 home - another league returning from a Winter Break. recent form consists of international club friendlies and best left alone until recent league form is more prevalent. For those with an interest, www.futbol24.com will give you the recent stats.

7pm - Almere v Zwolle - 1.48 away - Friday signals the oft hoped for raining down of goals in Holland's 2nd tier.

Bottom plays top today and a reasonably tempting price for Zwolle in the circumstances.

In their incarnation as Almere, Zwolle beat them 4-0, and had the luxury of a missed penalty too , last time these 2 met.

Almere at home have only 2 wins, one at the start of the season and the other 31st Jan which was a 3-1 win over Sparta.

LDLDLWLL for Almere at home has seen a mini revival of late.

8 of their last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals if you think Almere could continue their mini draw/win revival against the league leaders.

In 25 matches this season, Almere have kept a clean sheet in only 1 match. That's the kind of stat we can shape into something surely?

Considering they are bottom, Almere have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches. The only match they did not score in was against fellow heavy weights fortuna Sittard.

A concession rate of 2.25 matches at home for Almere should be within the compass of the league leaders?

Almere have lost all of the matches at home to the top 9 teams.

Some standout stats for Almere I am sure you will agree.

Now onto the league leaders.

Zwolle all season have only suffered 3 defeats and 4 draws so immediately we should be looking at laying their opponents , although the odds for Almere are quite high.

I expressed my concern about the poor 2011 Zwolle had previously. LDWLDWWW - 3 wins on the trot now - has that ended the ropey 2011 start?

In fact Zwolle suffered their sole home defeat in january, and one of their 2 away defeats in January, which is what alarmed me so much. Compound that with a 0-0 draw v Fortuna Sittard and it looked like Zwolle were becoming unreliable betting mediums in a similar vein to Celtic and real Madrid away from home.

In this period, 2 Zwolle were unable to score in 2 matches which were the only 2 matches in their last 23 matches - again significant milestones.

But as I say, 3 wins on the trot now have hopefully returned Zwolle to normality.

Most recent win was 2-0 away to 4th placed Volendam which should augur well against bottom side today?

this all rests on whether we are convinced that the faltering Zwolle of early 2011 have been consigned to the past.

Zwolle's only losses away have come against top 5 sides and I do not expect the bottom side to trouble them in that regard. What may concern is the draw, following the 0-0 against Fortuna( 2nd from bottom)

WWWWDLDW away for Zwolle - we know all about the wobble in JAn /FEb 2011 -that saw DLD against 10th, 5th and 17th.

With the strong scoring and conceding stats, perhaps a way to cover the draw would be to include both sides in a neutral goals bet?

7pm - Veendam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.5 home - fair dos to Fortuna who are bucking the trend at present in the Juliper League. They used to be dependable over 2.5 goals but now are fighting a little harder.

veendam are proving hard to beat at present.They have only lost 2 of their last 20 matches, and 1 loss was last match.

11 matches at home without defeat and Fortuna are hardly the team with the kind of profile to trouble this record.

WWDDWWWDWW at home recently.Against bottom 5 sides, it's 5 wins and a 1-1 draw . Remember Fortuna are 2nd bottom.

Veendam went through a poor patch in January of 3 0-0's and a 1-0 but they seem to have returned to the old Juliper league goal ethos with 5-1, 4-2, 3-2 scorelines in their last 3 matches - 2 wins and a loss.

3-3 with Fortuna last time out, but Fortuna now seem to be harder to nail.

LWLDDDWL for fortuna recently is great form, and where previously it was nailed on over 2.5 goals, now it's 5 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals.

LLLWLDD - note those last 4 matches away for Fortuna - 2 1-1 draws away now on the trot do not make them the pushovers they once were and brings up the question of the draw now?

Fortuna away have not kept a clean sheet and concede an average 2.75 goals away from home. A massive 83% over 2.5 goals stat away from home speaks of games earlier in the season rather than recently in their mini revival.

Only one win away for Fortuna means, with Veendam's current record, we expect Fortuna not to win, but faith in veendam?

7pm - Wisla Krakow v Ruch Chorzow - 1.51 home -with head to heads pretty split, and these 2 coming back from a Winter Break, I think I will leave this Polish Division 1 match alone.

730pm - Anderlecht v Genk - 1.8 home - 1st v 2nd - equal points, nearly equal goals difference - is this going to be a 0-0 top of the table clash or a bayern v Dortmund 4 goal thriller?

Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 77% of their home matches and beaten Genk 2-1 already this season.

Infact, Anderlecht have a perfect head to heads record against Genk, with the 2-0 scoreline generally prevalent.

13 matches at home without a defeat, 4 match home winning run.

An 8 match run of cleansheets ended away toWesterloo , an unexpected win for Westerloo.

Only 6 goals conceded in the first half and 10 in the 2nd half for Anderlecht tells us where their strengths lie, so why the sudden 2-0 away loss to Westerloo?Just an abberation?

Anderlecht's last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals largely through their solid defence than any lack of goals on their part.

WDWDWWWW at home for Anderlecht - is it any coincidence the 2 draws came against 3rd and 4th in the league.? They are playing top today so expect a draw?

2.69 average scored at home and 0-30 average conceded at home

4 score draws and 2 wins only against the top 8 that Genk have played away so far. 3 of the draws were 2-2 so they can score away , but concede by the same token.

Genk's last 5 matches have been under 2.5 goals and they have had a clean sheet in 4 of those last 5 matches.

WWDDWW away recently for genk.

7 away matches without a defeat.

Genk have scored away in 12 of their 13 away matches.

29 scored in first half and 33 in 2nd half relays Genk's strengths.

Their performances against top 8 signals goals and the possibility of a draw, but both they, and Anderlecht, recently have had under 2.5 goals and clean sheets - conflicting stats.

730pm - Dortmund v FC Koln - 1.34 home - top play 11th and the way they kept a rampant Bayern at home to only one goal while scoring 3 themselves tells you what kind of form the league leaders are in. Instinctually, they look more than deserving of the 1.34 quote. But, as ever, the stats will reveal all.

5/5 in head to heads is encouraging for Dortmund backers with scorelines 0-1, 3-1,1-0, 2-3, 1-2 4 matches had a win by one goal.

10 matches at home undefeated and only defeat was 1st match of the season at home to Leverkusen.

WWWDDW - slight concern with the 2 draws at home of late against 10th placed Schalke and 17th placed Stuttgart (0-0).

These 2 draws were part of a 3 match draw run recently.WDWDDWW recently - cause for concern?

Quite amazingly for a team who just tonked Bayern away, only 2 of their 11 home matches have been over 2.5 goals.

2 draws recently home and away against 16th and 17th is a bit of a niggle.

In the last 7 matches that Dortmund have scored in, they have scored first, which augurs well for back to lay traders. The 2 1-1 draws saw Dortmund open the scoring.

The reason for only 18% of Dortmund's matches being over 2.5 goals at home? Simple. 64% of those matches have seen a clean sheet!

Dortmund score an average 1.9 at home and concede a measely 0.45 so no wonder they are most likely to score first.

Dortmund have scored first in 75% of their matches this season which is 3 in 4 matches - a real standout stat.

They have only conceded 7 goals in the first half and 7 in the 2nd half all season.

Our confidence will rest with the strengths/weaknesses of Koln.

One 1-0 away win to poor Stuttgart is terrible form for Koln away and another compelling reason to side with Dortmund.

Against the top 10 away, there have been 2 good draws 0-0 with Bayern , and 1-1 with Hoffenheim, but these would seem to be anomolous as the other scorelines were all losses 3-2, 2-1, 2-0, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0

Fairly consistent poor performance leaking plenty of goals.

Koln concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match which ties in nicely with Dortmund's scoring at home average.

LLLWLLDL for Koln away, but overall they have been in good form.DWLWWDW - one win was against Bayern when Bayern were 2 goals up and lost!! The last win was a 1-0 with an 89th minute winner so deep down not too impressive.

If koln can play that well v Bayern, they may pose a concern for Dortmund? But hang on, Koln are so poor away that they should not really pose a threat to the league leaders?

Koln have conceded 2,3,0,3,3,1,3,1 - plenty of 3's in there came against top 10 sides, as well as a 3 goal loss to newcomers St Pauli.

Koln lead at half time in only 25% of their matches .

Looks like Dortmund have a reasonable chance of opening the scoring today ?

745pm - De Graafschap v Willem II - 1.56 home - 14th v 18th in the top flight ( 18th is bottom) and 2 unreliable sides ( based on where they are in the leagues) - only 2 defeats at home for De Graaf should have us looking at them and the draw rather than a miracle from Willem II

WLWDDDD at home recently and , despite 2 defeats, it's the 6 draws at home that have De graaf where they are currently.

1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 the draw scores.

10 of the last 11 matches for De Graaf have been under 2.5 goals.

Recent form is the very definition of inconsistent - DLDLWDLDLD and inconsistent teams are vulnerable teams.

Recent draws, though, against top placed PSV and 4th placed Groningen must signal an ability to cope with bottom basement Willem II?

De Graaf have only scored 8 goals in the first half all season, so traders do not despair if 0-0 at halftime.

We would want to see Poepon playing as 8 of his 9 season goals have come at home.

1-0 win at Willem II signals De Graaf can unspectacularly get something out of today's match.

Willem II have 2 wins this season, both at home and both on 2011 - a sign of a revival?

LLWLLDW recent form sees those precious wins for Willem and a draw to boot - collector's items!

Away from home, though, it's 11 defeats and 2 draws. recent away form - LLLDLDLLLLLL - pretty conclusive.

85% away over 2.5 goals record, and Willem have failed to score in 54% of their away matches. 2.92 is the average goal concession rate away for Willem.

It is a question of whether recently poorly scoring De Graaf can take advantage?

7 of the last 8 Willem II matches have been over 2.5 goals. Their recent homewin over Heerenveen saw Heerenveen take a 2-0 lead!

82% of Willem's points are gained at home.

73% of their goals are scored at home.

They certainly look layable but are De Graaf backable?

210 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 American Ladie, 9/2 Red Merlin, 5/1 Dubai Crest, 6/1 Kaolak, 8/1 Swift Lord, 12/1 Solis, 14/1Masterful Act, 33/1 Faith Keeper, 50/1 Vitruvian Man, 66/1 Grey Garth, 66/1 Stronghaven, 100/1 Ursus.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This ground will suit the useful Flat handicapper Red Merlin who has had excuses since his promising Newbury second to Minella Class and has reportedly been treated for a back problem since his last race. However, AMERICAN LADIE (nap) has been knocking on the door, her latest Taunton handicap second is proving very solid form and today's better ground should suit this Flat-bred mare.[Adrian Cook]

A string of 2nds hints at an element of consistency for American Ladie. Only of 6 under 33/1 who should be the horses to fight out the finish and the places. Conditional jockeys are the niggle here.

Each way speculators -this is an ideal race for you.

235 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 I Confess, 11/10 Aflaam, 16/1 Street Crime, 40/1 Public Image.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A two-horse race on paper and slight preference is for I CONFESS who may be best at 7f but stays 1m.Aflaam is minus the cheekpieces which prompted a return to winning form last month.[Frank Carter]

A 2 horse race on paper, and hopefully a 2 horse race at the course. A sellers stakes race.

310 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Jacobs Son, 5/1 Bestwecan, 6/1 First Rock, 8/1 Speakers Corner, 18/1 Miles Of Sunshine, 18/1Sunset Place, 25/1 No Time For Tears.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JACOBS SON hardly has a convincing profile, but he's the form pick by some margin and none of his rivals can be recommended as solid alternatives. First Rock has proven ability, but finished lame here last time, while it's difficult to know what to expect from Bestwecan, who had been due to make his debut last summer. Speakers Corner needs monitoring in the market.[Ron Wood]

4 under 33/1 should fight out the 2 places and Jacobs Son's 2nd places put his top.

Beaten by a Johnston/fanning hot pot last time at this venue, he has a reasonable chance of another 2nd. He is at the business end in his races and that is key in what should be a 50/50 race, 4 horses for 2 places.

220 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Moose Moran, 7/2 Two Kisses, 5/1 Omaruru, 20/1 Magic Prospect, 25/1 Battleoftrafalgar, 25/1Missionaire, 33/1 Eurhythmic, 50/1 Prince Of Dreams, 100/1 Brambley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOOSE MORAN has not done anything that special as a hurdler but he did improve to win at his second attempt and today's opposition, headed by Two Kisses and Omaruru, may well prove insufficient to prevent him following up.[Richard Austen]

Only 3 under 25/1 opens this race up to speculators each way.Two Kisses is the immediate alternative to Moose Moran who is battered into 2/5 for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

645 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Malice Or Mischief, 11/4 Better Self, 10/1 Lough Corrib, 20/1 Lindo Erro.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very hard to see beyond in-form MALICE OR MISCHIEF, who is a classy sort for this level and who comfortably saw off his only credible rival on form, Better Self, in a 1m Lingfield claimer last month. Better Self is still the clear pick of the other three for forecast seekers.[Mel Cullinan]

2 only under 16/1 an obvious starting point in this claimer.

845 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 School For Scandal, 11/2 The Gillie, 7/1 General Duke´s, 40/1 Why So Serious.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SCHOOL FOR SCANDAL has had a few chances but blinkers could help him concentrate and this should prove a golden opportunity for the 75-rated performer who takes on three rivals with masses to find.[David Moon]

2nd to a newcomer last time out for School for Scandal. He doesn't seem to face any "dark horses" this evening and should get the win messrs Johnston/Fanning are hoping for in the last.

Win only bet here? Or will the Gillie, current 2nd fav with a 482 day absence, surprise?

SHORTLIST

5pm - H Berlin v FSV Frankfurt - 1.4 home - the stats point to goals but the head to heads do not. 1.2 over 1.5 goals. Against the backdrop of the head to heads, recent form for both sides points to goals, and Frankfurt's overall form may make them more vulnerable than they appeared in head to heads.

7pm - Almere v Zwolle - 1.48 away - a Januarius Horribulus as the Queen would describe Zwolle's recent form seems to have ended with a 3 match winning streak. Has the vulnerability which saw LWDLD recently been put to bed?

Almere are the ideal side to meet to extend the winning sequence - 3 home losses in last 4 and concede an average 2.25 at home. Zwolle should not lose, but can we trust them to win?

7pm - Veendam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.5 home - Veendam have scored 11 in their last 3 matches but Fortuna are tough to beat away recently with 2 1-1 draws. Veendam's record of only 1 loss in last 20 should mean they should not lose this match but Fortuna have seen a change in ,er, Fortuna recently which means they may not lose this match.

730pm - Dortmund v FC Koln - 1.34 home - Koln are terrible away from home and that is the key aspect of this match. If a team is to score, it would look like Dortmund. 2 recent draws slight causes for concern, but scoring first in last 7 matches they have scored in should make Dortmund a good back to lay trade?

235 LINGFIELD - ahhh the intrigue that would have Poirot stroking his ridiculous mustache - Street Crime was backed yesterday after a 600 day absence but emptied out. Now in a smaller field and at a tasty 16/1 ( for any stable looking for a punt), he may spoil the party? All things being equal though, this should be between I confess and Aflaam unless yesterday's money pointed to Street Crime being able.

1.23 Aflaam is the value in the place market against 1.12 I confess.

310 LINGFIELD - potentially " golden opportunity" for Jacob's son who has had 2 Desmond's so far ( 22 22) in his last 4 races. Only 4 horses under 25/1 makes this a potential 4 horse race for 2 places and the 1.27 for Jacob of some interest.

220 NEWBURY - soft ground a slight niggle 1.09 Moose Moran to place as against 1.45 for Two kisses. Only 3 under 25/1 means we can surely take a gamble on the better place price for Two kisses ( as we could have done with Merehead yesterday)

McCoy onboard is a good sign.

645 WOLVES - should be a 2 horse race, so go for the 2nd to place at better odds? - Better Self? illiquid betting market some 7 hours prior.

845 WOLVES - 1.22 to win for School for scandal. A debutant meant a 2nd last time out ( entirely justified that a debutant has that capability being the unknown ability horse) and in The Gillie we have a horse with a near 500 day absence who could be the proverbial dark horse.

Greg Fairley won't be hanging around Wolverhampton on a Friday night for the good of his health and we should expect School to provide that winner for Mark Johnston.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

7pm - Almere v Zwolle - 1.48 away - if Zwolle continue their recent revival, they should lead at some stage. I would consider trading here.

730pm - Dortmund v FC Koln - 1.34 home - Dortmund's recent win over Bayern at Bayern would have given them some confidence. Koln are terrible away from home. DDW ( St Pauli) at home recently a slight cause for concern but facing a Koln side who have only 1 win away . Again a slight niggle with the recent overall koln form recently WLWWDW ( away form there was LD -loss to St Pauli and draw against Hoffenheim) Look a real Jekyll and Hyde team home and away.

5/5 in head to heads for Dortmund and they look the most likely to take a lead.

310 LINGFIELD - Jacobs Son has 5 2nd places - consistent and is 1.27 to place in this 2 the place race. Only 4 under 25/1 should make this a 4 horse race for 2 places and that 1.27 looks tempting if put this way.

220 NEWBURY - Moose Moran is too short to place and a risk perhaps on the McCoy ridden Two Kisses. Slight concern that a class 2 last time saw him 20+ lengths behind the winner. With 3 under 25/1 surely a round without any hurdle mishaps should be enough for Two kisses to place?

845 WOLVES - 1.22 for School of Scandal to win only? Would need to look nearer the off incase the gillie has been backed.