again some obvious horses today, none more so that Qozak and Kingscroft, but I will put my faith in the Swedes today as they have been superb and full of goals at home. Slight niggle that the Dutch only beat Moldova 1-0 but, without the evidence, I can only think that the Dutch must have rested some stars against such inferior opponents.
*****ONE A DAY 6pm - Sweden v Moldova - back Sweden in the match odds at 1.2*****
No problem from the Spanish Nippers yesterday, and a good example that friendlies are to be treated with caution, as Spanish under 21's drew with Belarus and England under 21's lost at home to Iceland.
As you will read later, we have more friendlies today.
2pm -
Cyprus U21 v San Marino U21 - 1.06 home - again look towards goals here to enhance the odds? - a qualifier so expect a full pelt performance. 2 poor sides internationally and San Marino must really be bad if Cyprus are 1.06!LLLLLDDLWLWD for Cyprus last 12 matches sees some semblance of a recovery last 4 matches beating Norway and Malta and drawing with Ireland.
An equally poor home record with only 1 win in last 12.
San Marino have lost their last 17 -that's as far as my research website goes! They have conceded 5,5,1,8,6,8,6,11,3,2,5,5. The 1 was against Latvia and the 2 against Bosnia.
Cyprus have scored at least 1 goal in 5 of their last 6 matches. The odds suggest 3,4 or more but it does not seem within the Cypriot's make up? But it is within San Marino's make up to concede!
Follow the odds here which would mean over 3.5 goals has a chance , but be ware illiquid betting markets and be ware a Cypriot team who really are no great shakes.
430pm - Czech Republic v Liechtenstein - 1.04 home - no great shakes themselves the Czechs. Good news is that this is a Euro Qualifier as well so expect the Czechs to show no mercy.The czechs won 2-0 away last time out in October 2010 and I suppose we will not be expecting fireworks from a typically dour eastern european outfit. As you know yourselves, 1.04 signals goals and halftime/fulltime victory ( they scored 2 in the 2-0 meeting). Like Cyprus , do we trust a country not renowned as having any attacking flare? let's look at the limited stats and see!
Czechs can take heart from scoring 3 in their last 2 games, including scoring first against the mighty Spain before succumbing.
We have a rather mixed bag from the Czechs - 4-2 and 2-1 losses intermingled with 1-0 win and 1-0 loss and a 0-0 v Denmark. We would expect the team who scored 2 against Croatia to show up today.
3 losses in last 5at home include a shocking 1-0 loss to Lithuania .Last 2 homes have been the aforementioned 1-0 loss and 1-0 win over Scotland.
7-0 against San marino shows that the Czechs can do it against weaker opponents, as does the 4-1 home win over latvia.
LLDLLLDLLLDW - let's look at the draws for Liechtenstein . 1-1's against Finland, Iceland and Estonia. Liechtenstein scored first in the match against Estonia.
The win was a 1-0 against, erm, San marino who czechs beat, you'll recall, 7-0. That was a 57th minute winner after San Marino got an early red card - I mean this is hardly compelling evidence of Liechtenstein turning any kind of corner.
Liechtenstein have scored in their last 4 away matches, albeit against weak opponents. When it comes to a better class, they tend to lose to nil.
6pm - Sweden v Moldova - 1.22 home - if memory serves, Sweden have a great home record.More good news is that this is a euro qualifier .Sweden's only loss in the last 12 matches was away to holland 4-1 and not unexpected given the Dutch squad is exceptional. WWWWWWLDWDWD - Last 5 matches have been friendlies so take that form as such.
LWWWWWWWD for their home matches since 2009. Excellent form.The loss was 1-0 v Denmark when Sweden missed a penalty to open the scoring.
The draw was 0-0 in a friendly against the might of Germany so a good result.
4,1,4,4,3,2,6 the goals scored by Sweden in those wins. Very consistent at home, with Ibra, Berg and kallstrom the 3 who tend to do most of the scoring.
With recent home form, then, we would not expect Sweden to lose.
Moldova have won 4 of their last 12, against such, erm, illustrious opponents as Andorra (2-1 away win requiring a 94th minute penalty to secure the win), San Marino 2-0 ( 2nd goal 86th minute), 2-0 against 10 man Finland and 1-0 against 10 man Kazakstan.
Hardly compelling.
The Moldovans don't get trounced , the most they have lost by in the last 12 matches has been 3 goals.
Euro qualifiers saw a home 1-0 loss v Netherlands, although you might suspect the netherlands rested players ( I am just thinking aloud), and 2-1 loss v Hungary( were 2-0 down)
Expect Swedish dominance here. Will they replicate their recent home goalscoring exploits or is that 1-0 v the Dutch a sign that the Moldovans can frustrate?
645pm - Romania v Luxembourg - 1.14 home - another Euro qualifier - no recent head to heads. Romania have only won 1 of their last 12 matches and are 1.14! Yikes. Lux must be Sunday League! 5 draws in their last 7 matches forRomania. REcent 3-1 win against the Faroes perhaps what Romania are capable of this evening? Romania have drawn their last 3 matches at home, most notably in a friendly against Italy, 1-1.
lux have only won 2 of their last 12 matches, most recently 2-1 over Slovakia at home in a friendly.
LLDLL in the Euro qualifiers though .
LDLLLLL away from home since 2009 says it all really conceding 0,7,2,5,1,2. I suspect this could be one of the tighter defeats.
730pm - Netherlands v Hungary - 1.14 home - the last time the dutch were beaten, I think Johann Cruyff was just perfecting his turn! You get the idea! It's been a long time! 25th March Euro qualifier saw a 4-0 Dutch win at Hungary. Be wary wounded animals tend to fight back. Also an element of recent familiarity. Still the bookies expect nothing less than a repeat from the Dutch who tend to score as the odds suggest. I will repeat, verbatim, my research from the last meeting 25th March as it is still relevant
"730pm – Hungary v Netherlands – 1.51 away -Euro Qualifier so immediately of interest – Holland beat Hungary 6-1 in a recent home friendly and have a quite superb squad. Afellay is the latest eyecatcher snapped up by Barca – he is very exciting. Van Robben terrorising defences, Van Der vaart’s class, Snjeider’s sublime ball skills, Kuyt’s, well, running round like a headless chicken on speed, and Van Persie’s super finishing.
Surely the Hungarians are up against it?
But be ware a good winning streak for both sides.
Hungary have won their last 5, but hang on a sec, check out some of the opponents – Azerbaijan, Moldova, San Marino,Lithuania and Finland. Hmm.
Netherlands last lost 33 matches ago, when an early sending off saw them lose 2-1 to Australia back in 2008.16 wins and 2 draws in last 18 matches for Netherlands. 1 draw was the, ahem, World Cup Final and the next draw was a 1-1 friendly – the next match after the World Cup Final.
This 1.51 therefore is a steal is it not? Dutch squad news would be appreciated here to make sure all the above mentioned players are playing"I will add an addendum that team news for the Dutch might be required as a manager who sees his side score 10 in 2 meetings might field a weaker side and rest some stars at home against much weaker opponents.
745pm - Belgium v Azerbaijan - 1.23 home - the Belgians are the team that the press are raving about. Like Spain and Netherlands, Belgium have stumbled across a new breed of exciting talent at this particular time ( and note Belgium will be well worth backing for Euro Championships and World Cup) Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 matches but in euro qualifiers lost 1-0 to Germany, and 3-2 against Turkey.Only recent losses at home have come against Germany (1-0) and Croatia ( 1-0 friendly) Azer have lost their last 4 away matches, conceding 3,6,3,2 and in Euros have lost 6-0 to Germany and 3-0 to Austria ( an Austrian side beaten 2-0 by Belgium , good collateral form)
745pm - Germany v Australia - 1.39 home - a friendly and Germany have drawn their last 3 friendlies , and may be shuffling the pack in an ultimately meaningless re reun of the world Cup meeting where they won 4-0. As a friendly, you either get involved or leave alone.
745pm - Lithuania v Spain - 1.34 away - reading the Racing Post and it is the pitch that is a huge concern for the passing Spanish and that may throw a spanner in the works and perhaps open up a lay of 1.34 for a short period of time, in anticipation of Spain needing some time to adapt? 3-1 in October 2010 to Spain. Spain have won the matches they need to win ( exception 0-0 90 minutes World Cup Final) and have drawn or lost friendlies.
The market expects this trend to continue. Spain away have won their 2 important Euro Qualifiers 4-1 v Liechtenstein and 2-3 v Scotland ( they were 3-1 up and scored an own goal for Scotland). Lithuania beat the Czechs 1-0, drew 0-0 with Scotland and lost 3-1 to Spain in the Euros.HAve only lost 3 at home in last 12 ( featuring 6 friendlies though)
8pm - England v Ghana - 1.76 home -utterly meaningless match. Watch and view to make your decisions. Wholesale changes means this is not worth my time and effort.
845pm - Portugal v Finland - 1.39 home - another international friendly which you either go with or you don't.
240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 I Confess, 2/1 Gallantry, 4/1 The Big Haerth, 6/1 Fifth In Line, 66/1 Pictures, 100/1 Final Try, 100/1 Mumtaz Begum.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reliable I CONFESS (nap) has been mopping up in similar events over the winter and his tactical pace entitles him to preference over Gallantry who is seen to best effect off a strong gallop.[Adrian Cook]
4 under 66/1 for 2 places. Perfect 50/50 race.
340 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Kingscroft, 9/4 Bunce, 14/1 Toms River Tess.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A much more realistic assignment for Conducting than when fourth in a Listed race over C&D on Saturday but preference is for KINGSCROFT who is on the upgrade and won a useful handicap over this trip at Wolverhampton last time.[Adrian Cook]
A carbon copy of joe Le Taxi's race yesterday sees the Johnston horse Kingscroft with only 1 to beat to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places.
220 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Bold Addition, 11/4 Lucy´s Perfect, 10/1 Dolores Ortiz, 25/1 Be Kind.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A straight match in all probability and it's not hard to give BOLD ADDITION the edge overLucy's Perfect.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Now 1/5 the fav with Lucy's Perfect the obvious alternative at trainer david Pipe's local track
250 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Qozak, 100/30 Hudibras.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On all evidence QOZAK is a far superior horse to his solitary rival and this is basically his to lose.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Hit and hope! A clear round will suffice for Qozak against these bigger chase fences.
SHORTLIST
430pm - Czech Republic v Liechtenstein - 1.04 home - this should go with the odds but do we trust goals here? 2-0 last time out. 1.04 indicates a lot more than 2!! An illiquid 1.2 for Half Time Czech win is very enticing given they scored their 2 away goals before half time in the corresponding fixture.
1.32 over 2.5 goals relays some unease in the market but 1.04 tells us this should be more like 3,4,5 goals win to nil.
6pm - Sweden v Moldova - 1.22 home - this looks about right and if you look at the goalscoring exploits of the Swedes at home, you could argue for an over 3.5 speculative trade ?
730pm - Netherlands v Hungary - 1.14 home - beware teams meeting so soon after previous meetings . That will allow Hungary to adjust defensively. But against this Dutch side? Team news required here for the Dutch - threat of a slightly changed team against perceived weaker opponents?
745pm - Belgium v Azerbaijan - 1.23 home - the talk of the town and the buzz of football journos all salivating over this new Belgian side with so many exciting young players. Expectation therefore is for the home win this evening.
745pm - Lithuania v Spain - 1.34 away - traders note, Spain could be backable at a bigger price as this match goes on. The Spanish manager has called for the match to be postponed because of the pitch. If the match goes ahead, then perhaps this may hinder the passing game of the Spanish?
With the pitch in mind, one to view and react accordingly.
340 LINGFIELD - looks like Kingscroft will place here in this 3 horse race for 2 places.
220 TAUNTON - Bold addition is 1.22 to win and 1.07 to place with Lucys Perfect perhaps the value alternative at 1.32 currently to place.
250 TAUNTON - Qozak is 1.2 to win only in a 2 horse race. A chase race so layable on the basis of only a single run over chase fences and a chance that the horse might be prone to a mistake at some point which may bump up the 1.2 price to allow a trade.
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