A tough evening of football and the bookmakers have all but put Barcelona through. The 2 matches this evening I think are better approached by watching and deciding. After the first few minutes Barca might just be clicking into gear here and be a steal at 1.34. Considering Chelsea were 1.3 v Blackpool, i am certainly not as confident about Barca this evening as I would be about Chelsea last night.
Shaktar are unbeaten at their new stadium which makes Roma's need for 2 goals a tricky one.
This leaves me with the horses and as you can appreciate we get a better return and more consistency with the football as there are few fallers ( apart from nani and Ronaldo but that is a different story)
***** 430 EXETER - Glitzy d'ocola to place only***** I hope I do not regret a return to horse racing. I expect Barca to win but not as confidently as Chelsea last night if measuring my confidence.
Now that was a collector's item. A Monday with a rock solid bet. I could do with a few more Blackpools ( minus top 2 scorers) v Chelseas I can tell you. Best value bet of the year for me so far.
Fenerbahce did the business scoring more than 3 for the 3rd away match in a row. I was split between head to heads and recent form. A bit gutted I did not put it up as it was 1.83 at the off.
530pm -
SCR Altach v First Vienna - 1.33 home - Austrian 2nd flight and another of those leagues which is returning from a Winter Break. Some, like Litex Lovech yesterday won easily, so you take your chance really, but there is no recent form which we can analyse.www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com will cover the stats angles for anyone who wants to try and justfy the 1.33 odds.
First thing to do in matches as unique as 2nd legs Champions League last 16 is to get an idea of the minimal scoreline required for both sides to go through.
Barcelona will go through with a 1-0 victory this evening as they have an away goal. Arsenal will go through with a 0-0.
Next check will be the Racing Post and Champions League website for any up to the minute team news.
Pique and Puyol are out for barcelona which is a solid defensive parrtnership gone.
Arsenal are missing Theo Walcott ( a massive blow in my mind, especially now given the prominent Barca defensive absences.
Song and vermalen are out and Van Persie is a big doubt this evening for Arsenal.
It is a difficult match to research.
2 1-0's latest for barca, not entirely unexpected as one was against Valencia and the other a match prior to a Champions League match. A weakened team was played as well relative to the side that will be put out this evening.
The last 4 matches in head to heads have been over 2.5 goals.
Watch out if Arsenal score first - they did last year and then got mullered by Messi.
Arsenal have lost their last 2 away fixtures in the Champions League ( although again we need to put into context of 2 legs)
HEAD TO HEADS - 3-1 win for Tamworth last year preceded by 1-1 draw April 2010
3rd v 16th
LUTON
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWLD -last 3 results don't scream out immediately to back Luton.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWLDWD - only one loss in the league is good recent form. Loss was v Fleetwood who are in 6th place.
GOAL TRENDS - I cannot work with soccerstats so it's a little laboured and I'm going to cut this short as I hold my hands up and say I know nothing of the Conference national and this would make this a guess bet !
745pm - Shakhtar v Roma - 1.98 home - from the Racing Post, the onus is on a neutral goals bet and the 1.31 about over 1.5 goals looks very appealing indeed. I am familiar with Shaktar as they were a one a day bet I think the other day with the 1-0 win over Sevastapol in Fergie Time.
but in the Champions League, they scored 2 against Arsenal and Sporting Braga in their last 2 matches at home.
They won 2-3 against Roma at Roma so this means that Roma must do something this evening at Shaktar.
Shaktar only need a 0-0 to go through on away goals.
Roma need a 2-0 away win as a 1-0 away win ensures that it is 3-3 and Shaktar have the 3 away goals.
So Roma will come out all guns blazing.
Roma scored 0 against Bayern, 3 against Basel and 1 against Cluj - not too bad form away in the Champions League
5 of Roma's last 6 Champions League matches have been over 2.5 goals - the only one not was 1-1 v Cluj away
3 of Roma's last 4 Seria A matches have been over 2.5 goals and they have scored in all of last 4 .
Shaktar have scored 2,4,2,2 against their recent home opponents, albeit some of dubious quality in off season friendlies.
Shaktar have not lost since October 2008 at home.
5th v 19th
HEAD TO HEADS - 2-0 SOTON home win, 1-0 SOTON away win, 1-1 YOEVIL home draw in recent 2009 and 2010 head to heads points to the possibility of a tight match today although the 2-0 home win for Saints stands out.
SOUTHAMPTON
RECENT HOME FORM
WDLWWDWW - only 3 defeats at home all season for Saints so they expect not to lose this evening.
4 wins in last 5 home matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDLWDWDWLW - only 2 losses in last 13 puts the ball firmly in Saint's court.
Losses were against Tranmere and Walsall away from home ( 18th and 20th in the league and remember Yoevil are 19th but Saints are at home)
Against the bottom 7 at home, Saints have won 2-0 (18th) , 4-0 (21st) , 4-1 (22nd) and lost 1-0 to bottom side and that was the first match of the season and easily forgotten .
GOAL TRENDS - only 38% home matches over 2.5 goals.
An impressive 50% of home matches have seen clean sheets for Saints .
They score an average of 1.75 goals per game, both at home and overall.
Saints have scored 28 goals in the first half hour directly after the 2nd half. 2/3rds of Saints goals are scored in the 2nd half.
4 of Saints last 5 matches have been under 2.5 goals. The exception - a 4-1 home win!
STREAKS - 5 home without defeat.
YOEVIL TOWN
1-1 draw earlier in the season when Saints visited.
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDWDWLW - some good away form recently with a single loss against 21st placed Dagenham and Redbridge. Put this into context though.
Against the top 10 away from home, Yoevil have lost 2-0 (1st) , 2-0 ( 2nd) , 4-2 (3rd) , 4th not played, 5th Saints play today, 3-2 (6th), 3-2 (7th) , 0-0 (8th), not played 9th or 10th.
Overwhelming losses and concession of 2 goals at least is the pattern here bar the anomolous result over Colchester.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLLLWLD - a few losses creeping in recently - a solid 1-1 v title contenders Huddersfield must buoy Yeovil as will a 1-0 home loss to Brighton, who have been scoring for fun of late.
GOAL TRENDS 47% of Yeovil's away matches over 2.5 goals - 5 of Yeovil's last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals.
Yeovil's last 3 matches have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-1 - an ability to keep things tight and bear in mind 2 of the teams were 1st and 3rd in the league.
Yeovil have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 10 matches.
STREAKS - No draw in 3 away matches for yeovil. As already revealed, Yeovil have lost all 5 matches away to top 7.
Difficult to weigh up given the head to heads are reasonably tight but the clincher might just be that Yeovil away from home have been comprehensivley beaten by top 8 sides. But, just to make our life a little harder, they recently at home went down only 1-0 to Brighton and drew 1-1 with Huddersfield.
230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pepite Rose, 5/2 Semi Colon, 6/1 Playful Rose, 8/1 Hazy Dawn, 8/1 Pretty Penny, 10/1 Lucky Mix, 16/1 Time To Think, 20/1 Verde Goodwood, 25/1 Hopatina, 33/1 Some Secret, 100/1 Cruise In Luxury, 100/1 Dani, 100/1 El Pescadero.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PEPITE ROSE won quite a competitive juvenile hurdle at Warwick (first two well clear) and promises to stay so is preferred to Semi Colon.[Frank Carter]
5 under 16/1 in the betting makes this an interesting each way value alternative race and a possible probablity race with these 5 vying for the 3 places?
430 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Glitzy D´ocala, 15/8 Stolen Thunder, 9/2 Silver Accord, 8/1 Lundy Sky, 33/1 Noddies Way, 33/1Power Lord, 66/1 City Well, 100/1 Another Round, 100/1 Rockandahardplace, 150/1 Bitta Dash.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some promising staying novices in opposition and though there is more to come from Stolen Thunder, the weight he has to give to GLITZY D'OCALA could prove decisive. Silver Accord is also respected despite a blip at Warwick in January.[Emily Weber]
A very interesting race sees 4 horses only under 25/1 and surely evens ( 10/11 in places) Glitzy D'ocala should have a great chance of placing under richard Johnson
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Lucky Sunny, 3/1 Jukebox Melody, 4/1 Next To Nowhere, 13/2 Alleged Vanity, 33/1 Andreo Bambaleo, 50/1 Alpha One, 50/1 Power Flow, 50/1 Rocky Bear, 100/1 Sleep In First.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LUCKY SUNNY looks good in a race lacking any strength in depth, with Next To Nowhere the most likely threat if coming on from his Ayr reappearance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Only 5 under 40/1 here and the front 3 are tight. It is about who will be less inconvenienced by the Soft ( heavy in places) ground.
420 NEWCASTLE
ETTING FORECAST: Evs Tiptoeaway, 2/1 Diamond D´amour, 4/1 Lua De Itapoan, 16/1 Money Tree, 33/1 Direct Approach, 33/1 Dr Light.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIPTOEAWAY will need fences to make a name for himself but he's shown enough over hurdles to believe he can win a novice event. He has Diamond D'Amour to beat.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 horses under 20/1 should fight out the 2 places and this is a hurdle so I am less worried about a fall than if this were a small field chase.
240 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 La Estrella, 5/2 Hindu Kush, 33/1 Mojeerr, 50/1 Beseech, 66/1 Cosmetic.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hindu Kush can have a case made if you go back a couple of years but he was well below his best in 2010 and ran poorly his one run on Fibresand. LA ESTRELLA, therefore, cannot be opposed and he should be able to retain his unbeaten record in claiming/selling company here.[Emily Weber]
4 horses and 2 places makes this a 50/50 race. Only 2 under 14/1 Beseech is a little smaller in the betting at 14/1 than in the betting forecast - a betting forecaster's rick or sign of each way support?
Multiple winners tend to lose eventually, but at 4/9 today ? hindu Kush is the obvious each way alternative.
SHORTLIST
745pm - Barcelona v Arsenal - 1.34 home - 2 recent 1-0's for barca a concern? Well not really as a 1-0 will ensure qualification this evening.
Last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Expect the same today?
1.13 Barca Draw no Bet ( nearly the same as laying Arsenal)
Minimum requirements - 0-0 for Arsenal and 1-0 for Barca - will this really be the final scoreline? Over 1.5 goals is 1.16.
Van Persie could be the most pivotal absentee and Jack Wilshere should get a lesson in big boy's midfield play.
Barca are so tempting at 1.34 too, but I would want the option of trading here.
745pm - Shakhtar v Roma - 1.98 home - minimum requirements 0-0 for Shaktar and 2-0 for Roma. Shaktar unbeaten I think in 17 in European competition at home and not beaten since October 2008 at home.
Recent managerial change at Roma seems to have had a positive impact.
A toughie to call. roma must attack, Shaktar are unbeaten in1 1/2 years at home!
745pm - Southampton v Yeovil - 1.38 home - this rests on how much we read into the relatively good Yeovil performances against 1st and 3rd recently, albeit at home.
away, a resounding losing sequence to top 8 sides ( includes Soton in 5th who they of course play tonight), conceding 2 at least.
I am not a regular League 1 visitor which is my weakness in determining this match. I only have stats rather than any history of following these 2.
430 EXETER - Glitzy D'ocala has Richard Johnson onboard which is a compelling argument to place back , albeit at a stingy 1.17. Stolen thunder is one of those horses, like Two Kisses, at a far tastier place only price of 1.5 ( could be higher as the lay price is 1.62 indicating an illiquid market) - pulled up and 11 length 3rd does not get my juices flowing, but must be something to the fact he is 3/1 2nd fav and one of only 4 under 28/1
220 NEWCASTLE - novice hurdlers in soft ( heavy in places) ground must be a concern. This is a 3 places race where 3 are under 16/1 and first and 2nd favs are an uneasy 2/1 , and both have a niggle or 2 - of interest might be Next to nowhere to place at around 1.45 ( illiquid market currently)
This race is unlikely to make the shortlist of the shortlist though. Novices + ground = no ta.
420 NEWCASTLE - - 3 under 25/1 currently makes this race of obvious interest. Around 1.24 to place - this is only a 2 mile hurdles event so the ground should not impact too much. No real evidence of the favourite taking to soft ground ( good to soft mainly lately and 10th on sole soft effort) but Tiptoeaway is the obvious starting point and , as I say, 1.24 to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places is a good price.
240 SOUTHWELL - - always like to see course winners in the line up in such a unique surface as Southwell's fibresand. 1.1 to place for La Estrella is a little stingy but signals his clear chances in a race where 2 are under 14/1
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Barcelona v Arsenal - 1.34 home -Barca must score a goal and they scored first at the Emirates and but for some wholly uncharacteristic misses from Messi, could have been comfortable, making this leg redundant on away goals.
it is far from redundant. Back barca at home at 1.34 - it is so tempting and we can trade.
It is a 2nd leg last 16 match though and who knows how Arsenal will set up and what impact Puyol, and Pique's absence will have?
Faith in overs again? Over 1.5 goals at 1.17 appeals and over 2.5 goals has come in in the last few head to heads.
745pm - Shakhtar v Roma - 1.98 home - over 1.5 goals at 1.3 is very tempting and the ideal for us would be for Roma to score first as that would give them belief they can get something from this match. If Roma scored first and it stayed 1-0, Shaktar would still go through on away goals.
If Shaktar score first, it will be 4-2 on aggregate with 3 away goals, Roma would have to score 3 to win ( I suppose not much more of a stretch than the 2 they need already)
430 EXETER - Glitzy Docola to place looks very appealing at around 1.17 on a difficult to weigh up footballing day. richard Johnson onboard. Only 4 under 33/1 and a clear round should suffice.
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