2/3

The 210 Folkstone becomes very interesting now it is 3 horses under 20/1 for 3 places. Super Directa and Cozy tiger cannot be split and I would opt for the former. A clear round as ever is what we require.

Everton ballsed it up yesterday, will Arsenal do the same tonight at home ?

Both of these are the same price.

***** 210 FOLKSTONE - SUPER DIRECTA TO PLACE ONLY*****

I hope I made the right choice. Yesterday I didn't.

Poor way to end and start a month. While all around me, Timesawastin wins, Siena win, under 3.5 goals Portsmouth match, and I choose an everton where Moyes did not start with Beckford who scored at the weekend. I thought this would go as all other Premiership v lower leagues had gone, emphatic win, but no! Why didn't I just wait for today?

3pm - Zobahan v Emirates Club - 1.22 home - AFC Champions League and it's Iran v UAE - little known about either sides and best watched initially to gauge whether the quote of 1.22 for the Iranians is justified.

5pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ashkelon - 1.24 home - they're all at it - Israeli cup match -only 1 loss in 22 matches for Hapoel Tel Aviv signal why they are warm order in this Cup clash against fellow top flight team.6 match home winning streak since November sees Tel Aviv scoring 4,5,4,2,2,4 - very consistent.Ashkelon have won only 3 of their last 12, and have lost their last 4 matches conceding 1,1,3,4

2-0 and 5-1 Tel Aviv in head to heads. Cup match so some trepidation but a strong Tel Aviv should do the job against a side who have lost their last 3 away.

6pm - Paris St-G v Le Mans - 1.59 home - French Cup and it's Division 1 v Division 2. Not much else I can relay here to be honest - there is no real point in relaying recent form for separate divisions

645pm - Lugano v Schaffhausen - 1.44 home - Swiss 2nd division only about 2 matches old for this new season and Lugano have won their 2 matches 2-1 and 3-2 ( both over 2.5 goals) while the mighty Schaffhausen have lost their 2 matches both 1-0 (both under 1.5 goals) Far too small a sample for me to get any angles in at all.

730pm - B Munich v Schalke - 1.53 home - we should be familiar with Bayern's home performances from recent research v Dortmund. German Cup match and a wonder whether there will be any changes for Bayern. They seem to share the honours with Schalke in head to heads.

DRAW, DRAW, BAYERN AWAY WIN, SCHALKE HOME WIN,BAYERN HOME WIN, SCHALKE HOME WIN in last 6 head to heads is inconclusive.

Only 2 losses for bayern last 12 matches were against Koln ( Bayern were 2-0 up) and Dortmund ( league leaders and not entirely unexpected)

Bayern, at home, have scored 3,3,2,4,3,4,3,3,5,4,1 ( the one was against Dortmund) - apart from league leaders, this is some solid and consistent goal scoring.

6 of Schalke's last 9 away matches have been tight under 2.5 goals affairs. Again a tricky match to weigh up today.

730pm - Gent v White Star Woluwe - 1.14 home - Belgian Cup sees Division 1 v Division 3 B and the kind of a gap in the leagues I like to see.

Gent have won 6 of their last 7 at home, and a 4 match winning streak currently, scoring 2-2-4-4 which is promising. Have beaten White Star 2-0 in January 2011 in another Belgian Cup match.

745pm - Arsenal v L Orient - 1.18 home - now this should go with the odds and Arsenal should show Everton how to do it this evening. With the Carling Cup gone, Arsene will want an FA Cup berth.

No Fabregas and Van Persie - huge misses for Arsenal. 10 matches undefeated for Orient in the League. DWLDDWD away for Orient. Lost 5-0 for Brighton and that is something Arsenal can replicate.

745pm -Celtic v Rangers - 2.06 home - most recently, 3-0 thrashing by the Bhoys but then a complete lack of interest against Motherwell. Last 5 matches have been over 1.5 goals in head to heads. 2-2 last Cup match and the hope of goals to come. Maybe a bookings bet might be good - it includes both sides, there'll be a bit of needle from the recent 3-0 drubbing at Celtic.

745pm - Lille v Lorient - 1.78 home

745pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.68 home - FA Cup match so form really redundant here as we saw, alas, yesterday. 2-0, 3-1, 4-0 at home last head to heads for City for what it's worth. Villa have scored in each of their last 9 matches, scoring 21 goals in their last 11 matches. Safer to go with a neutral bet here ( or better still avoid the Cup as a betting medium)

745pm - Twente v Utrecht - 1.78 home - Utrecht a surprise package this season. Dutch Cup match and again I would prefer a neutral goals bet here Utrecht have had 5 draws on the trot and Twente have drawn 2 and lost one of their last 3.

Hopefully with the shackles off, we can see a team victorious and lay the draw? It is tradable as the goals to secure the draws in Utracht's last 3 matches have won in the 74th+ minute.

845pm - Benfica v Sp Lisbon - 1.61 home - do you need reminding? 45 matches without a draw and 17 match winning run ( I know these by heart now!) League Cup match and Benfica have won the last 4 head to heads 4-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 - pretty emphatic. A league Cup match might be an ideal vehicle to end the 17 match winning streak?

Sporting have not scored against Benfica in last 3 head to heads so you would think, with home advantage, that Benfica should score first for at least a trade?

Sporting have gone 7 matches without a win LDDDLDL in those 7 matches - yes the draws are prevalent but benfica have not had a draw in 45!! Hmmm!

the 21st February saw the last match between these 2 2-0 away win for Benfica. Is this match too close, and will Sporting have learned? Benfica won that match while down to 10 men!
9pm - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.58 away - continue to confound - there was me thinking an away match v Mallorca would be a tight affair, and then they go and spoil it all by doing something stupid like score 3 to no reply. League match amongst all of the Cup matches. 7 points infront of a Real side who keep throwing away points when they need them most.

This is first v third 51 points playing 68 points and , more strikingly, +14 goals play +63 goals.

1.58 at first glance is a generous price for Barca but recognises they are away to 3rd in the league.

This is a 3rd in the league who are undefeated in 11 matches and whose only loss in their last 15 was markedly against Real Madrid (2-0 away to Real)

This might hint that the 2 dominant forces are just a stretch too far for Valencia while elsewhere they have little difficulty.

WWDWWWWD at home recently includes a 0-0 draw v Gijon latest.

Valencia have only 1 loss at home , 8 wins and 4 draws, but importantly they are yet to meet the top 4 at home this season. So whilst it might look all fine and dandy, they have not really been tested.

Indeed, away results against barca and Real brought about a 2-1 and 2-0 loss.

Valencia are undefeated in their last 9 at home.

Yet again though, they have not met the top 4 at home.

Barca are 23 matches without defeat. WWWWWWWDW away from home, and yes, it's those guys Gijon spoiling the party.

2,3,8,3,5,4,3,1,3 scored away for barca recently - the 1 was the Gijon match.

Again, ominously, barca have yet to meet the top 4 away from home.

This leaves a big gap in the form reading for both sides. We will only see tonight how either side prevails against top 4 opposition.

Barca have scored in all away matches this season which should open things up nicely for over 1.5 goals at least. 83% of away matches are over 2.5 goals but I must remind you these are other than top 4 Barca are playing against.

barca score first in 88% of their matches and the opponent leads at half time in only 12% of matches. Stats to work with?

16 of barca's last 17 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

They beat Valencia 2-1 earlier in the year, and valencia scored first. If that happens again, lay Valencia or back Barca.

1030pm - Atletico PR v Rio Branco - 1.3 home - Brazilian Cup match - Rio Branco won 1st leg(?) 2-1 so expect revenge this evening. These 2 last met 27th Feb and it was 2-0 to Atletico. Only this match has been under 2.5 goals of the 6 head to heads they have played.

1030pm - Botafogo RJ v River Plate (Bra) - 1.28 home - 1-0 in first leg to River Plate so revenge expected this evening.

450 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jimmy The Saint, 15/8 Non Dom, 15/2 Ballabrace, 11/1 Romantic Lead, 11/1 Thehillofuisneach, 12/1Alone They Stand, 16/1 Tribal Dance, 20/1 Any Given Moment, 33/1 Kalulushi, 50/1 Danehillsundance, 66/1 Ellis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bumper recruit Ballabrace may be open to improvement switched to hurdles but this basically looks to be between the two previous hurdles winners in NON DOM and Jimmy The Saint. Non Dom's Flat form suggests he may be capable of improving further now that he is finding his feet hurdling and he is preferred. [Mel Cullinan]

Only 5 under 20/1 here should dominate for the 3 places in this novices hurdle. - soft ground a slight concern as this is a later race and the ground may be heavier by then,

A difficult card at Downpatrick. It seems the racing world is asleep until Cheltenham.

210 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Cozy Tiger, 11/4 Super Directa, 4/1 Avoca Promise, 6/1 Alonso De Guzman, 16/1 New Den, 20/1Mission Complete, 33/1 Guarino, 40/1 Cunning Plan, 50/1 Classic Port.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Super Directa sets the standard back in a maiden but is vulnerable to anything progressive. Cozy Tigerhas to be feared, but AVOCA PROMISE may prove the pick on his hurdling debut. [Dave Orton]

Soft/Heavy in places and Alonzo De Guzman was mentioned recently as a prospective gamble, but he finished only 4th.

Only 3 under 10/1, 4 under 20/1 and 5 under 40/1 which should be involved in the 3 places.Super Directa has the standout RPR rating and close 2nd fav .

Has run in soft and heavy.

230 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Orpens Peach, 5/2 Grey Boy, 3/1 Abigails Angel, 12/1 Wednesdays Boy, 16/1 Crocodile Bay, 25/1Barton Bounty, 33/1 Briary Mac, 33/1 Moment Of Clarity.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ORPENS PEACH proved something of a revelation when winning and going close in two runs here in January and has leading claims if settling on this step back up in trip. The main dangers are Grey Boy and Abigails Angel.[David Moon]

5 under 20/1 should be involved here but it is an apprentice ridden race.

300 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ilissos, 7/2 Round Turn, 4/1 Blue Cossack, 11/2 Handicraft, 8/1 Polly Holder, 12/1 Jane´s Legacy, 14/1 Reach Out, 16/1 Jelyvator, 25/1 The Absent Mare.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ILISSOS has not managed to deliver in 1m2f maidens the last twice but is clearly thought capable of better and could click into gear with a visor tried on handicap debut. Blue Cossack is a solid alternative, while Round Turn has scope for further improvement in handicaps. [David Moon]

3/1 fav tells it all. Fairly open, but I am familiar with Ilissos from his maiden 3rds and perhaps he can place again under George Baker.

400 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Santera, 5/1 Setter´s Princess, 6/1 Money Money Money, 7/1 Mr Plod, 10/1 Leyte Gulf, 14/1 Horsley Warrior, 16/1 Juwireya, 20/1 Bullring, 20/1 Duar Mapel, 20/1 Tinas Exhibition, 25/1 Gulf Of Aqaba, 50/1 Warrior Nation.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SANTERA (nap) wouldn't be an obvious winner on her old Flat exploits but she promises to be a very different proposition now having made such good progress as a hurdler during the past year and she looks thrown in off a plater's mark. Setter's Princess is feared most.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap. In the live market Setter's Princess is a little closer. This Santera is returning from a 100day absence when she was last seen over hurdles. Warm fav because the market makers think she is far better than a 0-65 horse.

600 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Covert Decree, 13/8 Danehill Intellect, 20/1 Lauralu, 25/1 Silk Lingerie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Danehill Intellect having something to prove on the wellbeing front this looks best left to COVERT DECREE, who bumped into a beautifully-bred filly on her debut and can hopefully go on from there.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Always a danger, as we saw 2 days ago, that a debutant can shock. Well the debutant is Silk Lingerie who remains at 20/1

Covert decree is 1/3 but as you know, maidens and bumpers need market consultation a bit nearer the off as it could all change.

SHORTLIST

It's mostly cup matches today and they are open to misinterpretation and team changes ( as happened yesterday) so tread warily. These are one off matches and managers'attitudes, especially in far flung countries, is difficult to predict. Similarly. league form is not particularly transferable so we cannot get much of an angle in bar faith in the odds.

5pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ashkelon - 1.24 home - and faith in the odds here to start with! Hapoel Tel Aviv are in fine nick domestically and are on a fine double figure unbeaten run at present. They have beaten their opponents, scoring 7 and conceding 1, and have a fine home record of consistently scoring 2 or more.

It all should add up to a home win, but that's the Cup for you. I don't know the manager's attitude.

730pm - B Munich v Schalke - 1.53 home - Bayern have a chance of leading at some stage in this match to enable a trade. Their ability to score at home recently is unquestioned and generally over 3 goals are scored at home.

Concern that the head to heads are balanced in favour of both sides. Bayern are out of the league pretty much but will face a Division 2 side in the German Cup final with a win in this semi final.

A safer bet may be goals here as these 2 have shared the spoils in recent head to heads.? But then we remember the final last year where Bayern won 1-0 in extra time over Schalke.

A semi final might mean a tight match, but then Bayern have scored 3 or more consistently! COnflicting stats!!

730pm - Gent v White Star Woluwe - 1.14 home - a straightforward home victory you would hope. Goals as well at those odds although last head to heads was only 2-0 win.

745pm - Arsenal v L Orient - 1.18 home - chance to restore some belief that the Premiership has been dominant in this Cup, unless you are Everton at home and refuse to play a striker who just netted 2 at the weekend!. Concern that Orient are in superb recent unbeaten form in the league.

Over 1.5 goals would cover a potential Orient Goal At 1.17 it is that or the match odds. No Van Persie or Fabregas. How much will they be missed?

745pm -Celtic v Rangers - 2.06 home - Celtic confound me, they really do. 3-0 home win over Rangers, then they just looked like they really could not be arsed against Motherwell. It looked as if they had backed Motherwell to win halftime/fulltime at the weekend!

Neutral goals bet could be the call here - over 1.5 goals is 1.36 and has a chance of coming in in this Cup fixture which should be a little more forthcoming than a league fixture.

Celtic to lead at some stage? Back the 2.06, and hope they do, then trade out?

745pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.68 home - it is not ideal to base decisions in Cup matches on league form, but Villa have scored in last 9 and Man City have been dominant in head to heads, scoring plenty. 1.32 over 1.5 goals.

845pm - Benfica v Sp Lisbon - 1.61 home - Benfica are comprehensively on top in head to heads and look to continue a 17 match winning run and a 45 game without a draw sequence. But I suspect the Cup might be the place to end such sequences ( as they will end at some stage)

9pm - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.58 away - Both sides are yet to meet the top 4 ( Valencia at home, and Barca away) so difficult to gauge how Valencia play when they entertain the elite, or how Barca perform away to the elite.

What we can work with is 2-1 and 2-0 defeats for Valencia away to barca and Real - these, pointedly, formed 2 of only 4 defeats this season. Barca again look backable to trade if they score first or lead at some stage (88% record of that this season)

1.22 over 1.5 goals is appealing.

450 BANGOR - soft ground today but only 5 under 20/1 - default to fav Jimmy the Saint? 1.3 to place. As ever in these races, little hurdling experience although Jimmy has a win for his debut.

210 FOLKSTONE - a race where there are 4 runners under 20/1 for 3 places. Super Directa appeals to me here - head 4th last time out , and has an element of consistency about him. Only 3 under 20/1 now with Alonzo de Guzman out.

400 WOLVES - Santera is the price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap and deserves some attention despite only jumping hurdles recently . Still a chance that a 0-65 severely under rates the horse's flat potential and something we can exploit? 1.54 to place is a little uneasy.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

210 Folkstone must enter calculations as there are now 3 under 20/1 for 3 places. Clear rounds of course should suffice.

730pm - Gent v White Star Woluwe - 1.14 home - betting blind as regards team news etc, but should equate to an easy home win in the Belgian Cup.

745pm - Arsenal v L Orient - 1.18 home - 10 matches unbeaten in the league are Orient and Van Persie and Fabregas out. Enough not to side with Arsenal or should be just be realistic and note that at home, they should batter this league 1 opposition ( opening up over 2.5 goals?)

9pm - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.58 away - could be a big price for Barca by the end of the night. They have scored first in 88% of matches, but Valencia scored 1st at the Nou Camp. A hint that the big 2 are a bridge too far for Valencia who dominate elsewhere.

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