back-lay-trade-horses-football: 22/3

8 runners, 3 places, 3 under 25/1 and a favourite twice 2nd on today's surface. Surely Kishanda should finish in the first 3? yes , a class 6 maiden but a good probability chance?

*****255 SOUTHWELL - KISHANDA TO PLACE ONLY*****

Zenit scored 2 goals before halftime to guarantee over 1.5 goals. I did think their opponents would chip in, but was satisfied with the result.
We are in an almost twilight world now with the horse racing as the flat season gears up and the jumps season diminishes.

3pm - Narva Trans v Ajax Lasnamae - 1.14 home - when these 2 last met in 2007 and earlier, here are the scorelines 5-0, 6-0, 4-0, 2-0, 3-0, 6-1 in matches between 2006 and 2007 and all in favour of Narva. Now they are sub 1.14 and we know that this equals goals. Alas this Estonian league match has not caught the attention of the Betfairians as it is in play and there is a real angle in here re the goals if only the markets were liquid.Since the start of the Estonian League, Ajax have lost 3-0, 5-1 and drew 1-1 lately. The odds for Narva today do not signal a 1-1 draw!! The team that Ajax drew 1-1 with were beaten 4-0 by Narva Trans.
A very interesting match were it not for the illiquid markets.
445pm - Viljandi v Levadia Tallinn - 1.26 away - in play - levadia have won the last 5 head to heads but the last 2 occasions they played Viljanda away from home, they only won 1-0 which surely makes this 1.26 vulnerable and layable early on? The goal in the last 1-0 came in the 89th minute!!
The estonian league is only some 3 matches old and Levadia already have one 0-0 away from home which may back up the argument that this will be a tough 1.26 away win.
To compound this, Tulevik have drawn 2 of their 3 matches this season 0-0 and 1-1, both at home.

530pm - Flora Tallinn v Sillamae Kalev - 1.42 home - in play - another Estonian league match and another clear 6/6 head to heads to Flora scoring 3,4,2,4,5,3 in 2009 and 2010 - this makes the 1.42 very very enticing. The reason the odds are 1.42 is because the market is so illiquid - there is £4 at 1.41 for instance, so this is a very false price. If liquid enough, I would grab it with both hands. 2 wins and a 1-1 draw v Levadia in their 3 matches to date. But the wins were 1-0 wins and one was an 87th minute winner. yes, it shows good defense but limited attack ( albeit with a poor sample of 3 matches)
Kalev are draw, win , win so far this season so are in good nick, although with my limited knowledge of Estonian Football, I am not sure of the strength of teams they beat.

745pm - Brighton v Notts Co - 1.6 home - in play - league one match
1st v 17th
HEAD TO HEADS - from 2001 to 2004 so irrelevant for current season and as a gauge for tonight's match.

BRIGHTON - RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWWWWWW - can't really get better than that. Unbeaten at home this season with 13 wins and 4 draws.
BRIGHTON - RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWLWWWWW - great recent form.The 2 abberations were away from home .
BRIGHTON - GOAL TRENDS - 6 of the last 7 matches were over 2.5 goals. but at home recently, Brighton have scored 5,3,2,4,4,4,2 and these scorelines are not limited to bottom half sides.
4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches hint at a Brighton side who should win if scoring.
Brighton have scored in all of their last 5 matches and in 8 of their last 9 matches. the only times they do not score, they drop points.
2.47 average scored per home match.Have scored in all home matches. Only 59% over 2.5 goals at home.
Have conceded only 9 goals in the first half this season.
40 goals scored in the 2nd half, so fear not if 0-0 in the first half.
Brighton have only failed to score 2 or more 3 times at home this season.
STREAKS - 7 without a draw at home, 17 matches without defeat at home.
7 match home winning streak. 9 matches in total without a draw.
3 matches in total without conceding.
NOTTS COUNTY
NOTTS COUNTY RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDDDLWL - only 1 win in the matches they have played away to top 15 and that was a 2-3 win at Peterborough but its relevance is suspect as it was back in September 2010.
NOTTS COUNTY - recent form overall - LDDLWWDLLWLL - 4 losses in last 5 really stands out here.
Note that the last 4 matches have all been 1-0 scorelines.against 3rd, 16th, 9th and 22nd in the league.
Is this a new defensive Notts County we see before us? Or just a coincidence. Difficult to gauge as the teams are all spread through the league
NOTTS COUNTY - goal trends - the last 13 matches have been under 2.5 goals which is in market contrast to Brighton's goalscoring at home.
Only 43% over 2.5 goals away.
Notts county have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches, the exception a 1-0 win and that was a penalty.
Notts County have only kept a clean sheet in one of their last 6 matches, and that was that 1-0 win again.
STREAKS - 3 away without a draw, 5 in total.
Last 4 matches 1-0's.

We have a Brighton side who have only failed to score 2 or more in 3 of their 17 home matches against a Notts County side whose only recent goal was a penalty and whose last 13 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 1-0, 2-0 scorelines appeal for the more speculative here and it would seem that if Brighton score, they win? Perhaps back Brighton and the 0-0 as insurance/
745pm - Eastbourne v Crawley Town - 1.42 away -
745pm - Shamrock Rovers v Lisburn Distillery - 1.35 home -Setanta Cup match - Premiership v Division 1 and a 14th March match in the Setanta cup finished 3-0 away win for Shamrock. I presume, therefore,it is 2 legged? Shamrock merely need to avoid a 4-0 defeat?

745pm - St Johnstone v Brechin - 1.37 home - Premiership v Division 2 and a 2-2 initial cup draw at Brechin sees this apparent replay tonight and the bookies expect the Premiership outfit at home to do the business.
I do like gulfs in leagues and what appeals is the home match for the team from the better league. The first leg saw Brechin take the lead and St Johnstone eventually lead 2-1only to succumb to a 78th minute leveller. 5 draws in last 6 for St Johnstone but good home form in a better league-WDWWWDDD
Brechin are an inconsistent bunch as their recent form will attest -WLDWLDD - a mixture of the 3 results lately. Last 2 draws were 2-2 ( one v St J in the first cup match and the 2nd in the league) Now the probability of another 2-2 draw for a 3rd game in succession is very low.LWDLLD in last 6 away matches hint at vulnerability ( and remember this is Division 2 form)
The odds look about right here.

210 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Raya Star, 9/4 Shuil Royale, 9/2 Smart Catch, 8/1 Croan Rock, 14/1 Somewhatinevitable, 20/1 Toulaman, 25/1 Monroe Park, 25/1 There And Then, 40/1 Premier Article, 66/1 Homer Run.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dual bumper winner Shuil Royale, for all he didn't quite live up to expectations on his hurdling debut, is worth a chance to show himself capable of better, while there was probably no fluke about Smart Catch's 66-1 win here and he's unexposed on a sound surface. However, Doncaster winner RAYA STAR is preferred on balance.[Steven Boow]

4 under 12/1 and 5 under 28/1 - I am always suspicious of 66/1 winners so Smart Catch would get the heave ho here, leaving me a choice of Shuil Royale or Raya star and with Choc Thornton on the latter, a clear round should suffice one would hope.

500 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rare Symphony, 9/4 Decision, 13/2 Right Stuff, 8/1 Apache Chant, 8/1 Souter Point, 12/1 Al Amaan, 14/1 Minder, 16/1 Bun Oir.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Decision finally came good over hurdles with a comfortable success at Taunton last week and he commands respect under a penalty but preference is for the unexposed RARE SYMPHONY (nap) who also looks ahead of the assessor following her encouraging handicap debut effort at Warwick nine days ago. She looks just the type Philip Hobbs will do well with in handicap company this spring.[Steven Boow]

4 under 10/1 in this 8 runner race, but a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle hardly screams out reliable betting medium.

255 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kishanda, 2/1 Long Live Love, 7/2 X Rated, 6/1 Excuse Me, 20/1 Nha Trang, 25/1 Absolute Princess, 50/1 Mistress Shy, 100/1 Ochilview Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hughie Morrison's Kishanda has had to play second fiddle to Mark Johnston rivals on both her starts in C&D maidens and may suffer the same fate here behind LONG LIVE LOVE, who is out a US Grade 3 winner.[Adrian Cook]

4 under 25/1 and 8 runners makes this a superb probability race. Kishanda v the Johnston newcomer? Kishanda has twice ran at Southwell, twice finishing 2nd and surely if this form were reliable ( and this is a class 6 maiden so slightly questionable), Kishanda should finish in the top 3, with even a sub standard run.

2 newcomers under the 25/1 makes this an interesting race and these 2 could be anything, but enough to knock Kishanda out of the places?

SHORTLIST