7/3

A risk in Fenerbahce this afternoon at tasty odds but the head to heads at Genclerbirligi make me worried - 0-0 and 1-0 home win. Are these negated by Fener's 7 match winning streak, defeat of Gencl 3-0 at Fenerbahce and a feeling of confidence after scoring 4 and 3 in their last 2 away matches. This 1.69 could look big come 90 minutes but just as easily this could go with the home head to heads.

Far safer I would suggest is Chelsea this season, sealed by the absence tonight of Blackpool's top 2 goalscorers.

*****ONE A DAY - 8pm - BLACKPOOL V CHELSEA - BACK CHELSEA IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.3*****

Rangers won 1-0 and I'll take that at 1.4. You see, I hope , the relationship between slightly higher odds and change in scoreline. There is a huge difference between a 1.2 shot ( Lyon 5-0) and a 1.4+ shot ( Man City keeper error 1-0).

Nice, though, to get a run of these better odds bets.

4pm - Litex Lovech v Beroe Stara Za - 1.3 home - Bulgarian league only one match in after the Winter Break. Take a chance if you want but I prefer a longer set of competitive matches with which to make a decision.

6pm - Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce - 1.69 away

14th v 2nd and clearly a must win for fener , 3 points behind the leaders and only 1 goal goal difference. A win will put Fenerbahce top.

HEAD TO HEADS - 3 3-0's and a 2-1 at home for Fenerbahce but all changes when games are played at Genclerbirligi.

1-0 , 0-0 - yes, admittedly only a small sample but enough of a worry for Fener backers and a clear indication why they are 1.69 away today.

GENCLERBIRLIGI

RECENT HOME FORM - WLDLLWL- recent win a rather unspectacular 1-0 against 16th placed Bucaspor - 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats at home for Gencl. Against top 7 at home, it is 1-5 loss to Bursaspor, 0-0 v Gaz in 5th, 0-2 v Besiktas and 0-1 v esk in 7th.

Gencl have not played top 2 at home, but away have lost 3-0 and 3-1 to top 2 - a sign for today? If that can be replicated of course, Fener would be a steal at 1.69.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLDWWLW - 3 wins in their last 4 a sign of a revival perhaps? Should Fener be concerned?

Wins came against 8th and 12th away from home and 16th at home.

GOAL TRENDS - only 36% of home matches over 2.5 goals.

Last 2 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score only once in last 10and only 3 times in last 17 matches. Is this a sign that over 1.5 goals has a chance today?

STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw. No win at home to top 7.

FENERBAHCE

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLWWW - won 3 of last 4 matches away from home.Loss against 12th perhaps a sign of inconsistency from a betting perspective? Have lost 3 and drawn 1 v top 5 away. Bar that loss to 12th, have won all other away matches so we should expect a win today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWWWWWW - 10 wins from last 11 and must be super confident .

GOAL TRENDS - 64% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have scored 1,1,3,4, last 4 matches away from home. Which Fenerbahce will turn up today?

Have only failed to score in 2 of 23 league matches this season. 14 matches on the trot scoring at least one goal. Again this is a potential pointer to over 1.5 goals?

Average 2.18 goals away from home each match.

Last 4 matches have seen Fenerbahce score at least 2.

STREAKS - No draw in 6 away matches - no draw in 13 matches in all. No defeat in 7 matches overall, 7 match home winning streak and 3 match away winning streak. 7 match winning streak overall.

I could gamble on Fenerbahce today at a nice 1.69. The head to heads though at Gencl are a concern to me at 0-0 and 1-0 to Gencl . Is this negated by the fact Fener are on such a strong winning streak

8pm - Blackpool v Chelsea - 1.3 away - ahhh - old faithful! - 15th v 4th - there was a time very recently when Blackpool looked safe, but as you will see, they are very much in the mire along with another 8 teams it would seem, scrapping to avoid the bottom 3.

HEAD TO HEADS - 19th September Welcome to the Premiership at Stamford Bridge saw a 4-0 win for Chelsea.

BLACKPOOL

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWLLLDW - 6 over 2.5 goals matches ( see goal trends) and a 1-1 which would have been a successful over 2.5 goal trade. The recent win against Spurs was a surprise I must admit but a huge element of luck as Blackpool were bombarded 2nd half.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLLLLDWL - those losses have taken their toll, and how! Consider that Blackpool are only 15th after these losses it tells you how good and consistent they were before,

GOAL TRENDS - you should know that Blackpool at home is over 2.5 goals. Blackpool have conceded and scored in all home matches and the Racing Post is wrong. 92% of Blackpool's home matches have been over 2.5 goals ( 1-1 v Villa) though 100% of course were successful over 2.5 goal trades ( big difference)

1.69 scored, 1.84 conceded on average at home.

Of great concern is the absence of DJ Campbell( top scorer with 9) and Charlie Adam ( 2nd highest scorer with 7) which may scupper the 2.5 goals bet?

In the last 15 minutes, Blackpool have conceded a whopping 19 goals so if tight coming up to 75 minutes, take this stat into account you in play traders.

Against 2 of the top 4 Blackpool have scored at home, it's 2 2-3 scorelines. Can they score again with their 2 highest goalscorers out?

3,3,3,3,5,4,2,4, the total goals at home for Blackpool recently. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 matches.

STREAKS - no significant streaks.

CHELSEA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDLLWWD - only 2 wins recently but came in the last 3 away matches.

Chelsea scored 4 goals in each of those 2 away matches against teams with a stronger reputation that Blackpool for defending.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLWWWLDW - better overall form sees Chelsea unbeaten in only 1 of their last 6 matches - 1 -0 late goal v Liverpool.

GOAL TRENDS - score on average 1.57 away and concede 1 away from home. Unspectacular 43% over 2.5 goals.

Chelsea failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches.

Chelsea have scored 14 in the last quarter of an hour. Add this to Blackpool's concession rate in that quarter of an hour and we could have some fireworks at the end of this match.

STREAKS - 3 away without defeat.

kalou and Anelka the best performers away from home with 5 goals each.

It doesn't take a genius to surmise that this 1.3 for Chelsea makes them an ideal one a day candidate this evening with Blackpool's 2 highest goalscorers out.

Goals bet might rely on Chelsea?

Halftime/Fulltime Chelsea?

Torrest to score today?

All likely bets.

note how Blackpool were demolished by Wolves, albeit away, and we can see possible big numbers from Chelsea this evening if they click.

220 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Timesawastin, 7/2 Jolly Roger, 9/2 Knockdolian, 9/2 Tenby Jewel, 8/1 Murcar, 25/1 Katchmore, 50/1Que On Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMESAWASTIN contested races won by above-average sorts on his first few starts before readily accounting for Tenby Jewel over C&D last week and he's taken to defy a penalty. Jolly Roger looks a possible danger back down in grade, while Knockdolian remains capable of better.[Steven Boow]

You'll recall Timesawastin from a previous one a day message. Only 2 places though and did we miss the win?

500 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Judgement, 7/4 Swift Bird, 5/2 Insieme, 25/1 Hopes Up, 33/1 Khaki, 33/1 Pippas Prodigy, 50/1 April Belle, 50/1 Frosty Reception, 66/1 Summerandlightning, 150/1 Fight Or Flight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Judgement clearly has plenty going for her but SWIFT BIRD might be worth another chance after not getting the run of the race at Kempton last time. Insieme is much preferred of the remainder.[Emily Weber]

Maiden fillies - that's 2 words which bring a chill to punters. only 3 under 20/1 though so surely we can risk this race. 4 newcomers as well, and you will remember Black Pond's maiden race at 5pm when the intervening time between my message and the race time brought about any amount of market gambles and drifts on the betting exchanges.

These 4 debutants could be anything of course. As things stand, I would opt for Swift Bird, as the only horse among the top 3 with a recent run. All are quite good place only prices, but you will remember Black Pond's race and my promise not to choose with 5 hours to go in a maiden or bumper . The market is key in these races and may not have played its hand yet.

SHORTLIST

6pm - Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce - 1.69 away - such a difficult one to weigh up as the head to heads at Gencl's ground points to a tight match 0-0 and 1-0 , but Fener's recent winning run must be accounted for.

8pm - Blackpool v Chelsea - 1.3 away - now as far as I can see, this really will be a shock if Blackpool win without their 2 top scorers. This might scupper the exceptional over 2.5 goals record at home which would lead me , naturally , to a Chelsea away win.

500 LINGFIELD - notwithstanding this as a maiden fillies race, with 4 debutants, the market points to 3 horses under 20/1 who should dominate.

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