Saturday 26 March 2011

26/3

Trust England today in what is a derby of sorts. I think I may do at the price. I would back England at 1.46 and back the 0-0 at 13 for as much stake as it takes to cover my bet on England at match odds.
eg £100 on England at 1.46 I would back 0-0 correct score for £8.40 at odds of 13 to return me £100.80 if it is 0-0.

*****ONE A DAY - WALES V ENGLAND - BACK ENGLAND IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.46 , I WOULD ADVISE BACKING 0-0 INSURANCE AT 13 CORRECT SCORE TO COVER YOUR MATCH ODDS STAKE*****



My only wish yesterday was that I went with Holland who mullered Hungary and drifted to 1.69 at the off because of the news of Robben and Huntelaar's absence, but the standout players I mentioned all actually scored yesterday. When a drift like this happens, it is the herd mentality in action. If you stick to your guns, then you can get great value.
As it was Spain won, coming from behind ( traders take note you could have backed Spain at a bigger price)
The 3 horse race at Lingfield went like clockwork with the 2 main horses placing 1st and 2nd and come great odds given the task in hand.
1pm - Brighton v Swindon - 1.56 home - Swindon have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads but Brighton won the away fixture last time out 2-1 - they were 2-0 up in that match - is that an indication of what is expected today despite Swindon being so prominent in the head to heads. Top v 23rd.Brighton are 10 points clear with 2 games in hand over 2nd and 3rd so this is not strictly a must win is it? They have a buffer zone.
Swindon simply must win all remaining fixtures. Swindon have played a game more than 16th-20th and still are 2nd bottom.
BRIGHTON RECENT HOME FORM - 14 wins, 4 draws this season at home.
WWWWWWWW says it all really. against the bottom 8 it's 5 wins and a 2-2 draw - the 2-2 draw was Nov 2010 and Brighton have really improved. They were, though, 2-1 up in that match and thus a successful back trade.

BRIGHTON RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWWWWW - great recent form -the loss was 1-0 away at 5th placed Milton Keynes.
GOAL TRENDS - Average 2.38 goals at home per match.
Have scored in all home matches this season. Have only failed to score 2 or more at home once in last 8 matches and that was against Notts County as you will be familiar with .
Last 4 matches , and 6 of last 7 matches have seen under 2.5 goals .
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches,.
Brighton have scored in all of their last 6 matches.
Brighton have only scored 2 in the first 15 minutes of their matches but then 22 goals to the end of the first half.
Brighton are superb in the half hour directly after the 2nd half where they have scored a total of 31 goals while conceding just 7. So if 0-0 halftime, expect Brighton to show themselves as the next scorers.
Opponent leads at half time in only 14% of their matches.
Murray, Barnes, and Wood all score most of their goals at home, so the ideal is to see them playing today.
STREAKS - 8 wins on the trot at home, no draw in 8 at home, unbeaten in 18 at home, not conceded in last 4 matches overall.
No draw in 10 in total.
SWINDON
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLLD - pretty conclusive.The draw, though, was 0-0 away at 2nd placed Huddersfield!
Against top 7 away, bar the 0-0 with Hudd, Swindon have lost the lost, conceding 5,4,2,3,3.
This is one of those matches where we either go with recent trends ahead of possible bogey team head to heads stats ( Swindon won 3 of last 4)
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLDDLDLLLLDLDD - again a resounding thumbs down here.
GOAL TRENDS - 72% of away matches over 2.5 goals.Failed to score in 33% of away matches ( 1out of every 3 - amazing!).
Concede an average 2.16 away from home.
Have conceded a massive 16 goals in the first 15 minutes.
Last 4 matches have been 0-0, 1-0 away loss, 1-1, and 0-0. But the teams they played were 21st, 24th (bottom), 20th and that anomolous 2nd . So overall not the best teams. It's that Huddersfield scoreline that niggles .
Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 10 matches.
Swindon have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
STREAKS - no win in 8 away , and 15 overall.Have failed to score in last 2 away.

You would think that Brighton would be a lot shorter as form seems to contrast, but I guess it is because of the time of the season and also the head to heads?



2pm - England U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.41 home - a euro qualifier so no friendly here.
You would think England will have one over their near neighbours. The under 21's are in good nick as shown by a 4-0 thrashing of Denmark at odds of 2.3 and bigger. They last met in 2007 when England thrashed Northern Ireland ( NI from now on)
WWWWWWWDWDLD for England last 12 - a bit ropey towards the end.
The draws were all score draws and against Portugal, England were 2-0 up only to draw 2-2. The loss was against Germany so is not quite a surprise.
As to NI, LLWWLDWLLDWL - the interesting thing to note is there has only been 2 draws in the last 12 matches.
England at home have won 11 and only lost that match against Germany ( last match)
So no wonder they are strong favs.
NI's wins away have come against Malta, Andorra,Bulgaria, and Azerbaijan, hardly world beaters themselves.
No real strong form or recent head to heads to go on so just a hope that the odds are right really?
3pm - Armenia v Russia - 1.63 - now there's 1.6+ shots ( like the Dutch) and then there's the Ruskies who can prove very inconsistent. another Euro qualifier.
I am afraid I will not be dwelling on this match. One piece of collateral form puzzles me - Against Slovakia, Armenia won 3-1 but Russia lost 1-0. This indicates this match could go one of any number of ways and so is a trading and betting nightmare.
Armenia have not drawn at home in their last 11 could be an angle in.Russia have not drawn in any of their last 7 matches overall.They have not drawn their last 4 away and have only drawn 3 of their last 12 matches away.
It is a bit tenuous but may be an angle in.

3pm - Wales v England - 1.42 away - the absence of Bale is a killer blow for the Welsh.
Wales have not had a draw in their last 12 matches, and let's face it, this is not really an away match for England.
Wales have lost 9 and won 3, against, ahem, Luxembourg, Scotland, and Liechtenstein. That will have England quaking in their boots. Wales have not drawn any of their last 12 matches at home and again the calibre of team they beat at home is really very poor, including Luxembourg, Estonia, Scotland, Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan.

England have only lost 2 of their last 12 matches, and one of those was a friendly.
4 wins, a draw and a loss in last 6.
England have won 3 of their last 4 aways and only had one draw in their last 12 matches ( lay the draw traders take note)
The 0-0 v Montenegro is recent in our minds and perhaps backing England with a 0-0 cover might be the way to go. This does look on paper an easy assignment for England against a nation that can only beat minnows at present.
7pm - Andorra v Slovakia - 1.09 away - it pays to do research as we did yesterday with Luxembourg and France where sub 1.1 indicated goals but Lux were defensive and France hadn't scored more than 2 in their last 5 matches.
Now Andorra, as far as I can see, are much poorer and have lost their last 29 matches . In fact they have lost 34 and had a 0-0 draw against Armenia in their last 35 matches.
Andorra have conceded 2 or more in 10 of their last 12 matches.
Andorra have lost their last 12 at home ( and probably more) conceding 1 ( Russia) 3,2,2,3,3,2,3,6,2,2,2 -pretty consistent but not getting hammered so bear that in mind if looking to enhance the 1.09 with a goals bet.
3 of Slovakia's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals, the exception a 1-1 draw v Ireland.
Slovakia were beaten by Luxembourg 2-1 last time out, so perhaps a neutral goals bet will account for any potential upsets?
Slovakia have lost 3 of their last 4 and against poor opposition. Perhaps there may be mileage in laying at 1.09 early on? it is a bet to nothing at those odds.
7pm - Germany v Kazakhstan - 1.04 - they will not be singing " Yek shamesh, is nice, I like, sexy time" on the streets of Kazakhstan this evening as the Germans should absoutely muller Borat, Bilo and company. Your potential profit in this match will increase if you can predict roughly how many goals you think Germany are capable of.
Half time Germany looks well on the cards too. Although this all looks obvious we still have to do our research. 3-0 to Germany away and all goals came in the 2nd half. Did the Kazak's park the horse and cart while at home?
Germany's only loss in their last 12 came in the World Cup against Spain , a 73rd minute Puyol header.
WWWLWDWWWWDD -last 12 matches. 2 draws latest signs for us to be concerned? Well, both were friendlies. One a 0-0 away to Sweden and the other a 1-1 draw at home v Italy.
And remember friendlies are meaningless.
This is back to business. Germany's meaningful recent matches at home were 6-1 v Azerbaijan and 3-0 v Turkey, but late first half goals may put the Germany half time in Jeopardy? But at 1.04 surely they can score 1 goal to no reply in the first half?
Kazak's last 12 matches - LLW( Andorra) LLLW(Oman)LLLLD( Belarus) in a friendly which required a Kazak 88th minute equaliser.
Kazak's have only won 2 of their last 12 away ( Andorra and Estonia) , losing 9 and drawing 1.
2-0 loss to Austria recently came care of 2 late 90th+minute goals.

730pm - Malta v Greece - 1.27 away- 1-0 and 5-0 in favour of Greece in head to heads way back in 2007.
LLLLLLDLLLLD in last 12 for Malta. 1-1 draw v Macedonia ( friendly) and 0-0 latest v Swiss ( friendly) - they tend to lose competitive matches.
Since the world cup its, WDDWWWW for Greece ( last 2 wins in friendlies) -some typically Greek scorelines - 3 1-0's, a 0-0, and a 1-1 amongst those 7 matches
Likely to win, but could easily be courtesy of a late goal. As we have seen though, Malta look opposable in competitive fixtures.

745pm - Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia - 1.54 home - Ireland are likely to make hard work of this. Team news key - O'Shea out for Ireland and a huge miss is Given at the back.
This will likely be a drab tight affair. A look at the scorelines in Macedonia's last 12 matches may give you a clue as to their strengths.

Apart from Andora, Armenia and Azerbaijan, it's been generally tight , tight tight.
Yes, although I admit we only have majority friendlies to work on, look at their performances away from home.
The 0-0 is , unsurprisingly, only 10.5. I was going to advocate a backing of 0-0 early doors to trade.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 is good and under 3.5 goals at 1.29 should be safer.
1.54 for Ireland in the match odds might be layable initially only in the hope the first half is tight.
You see where I am leaning with an Italian Irish manager and a Macedonian side with strong trends towards keeping it tight ( but a big reminder that taking friendly form on face value can be highly misleading.)





845pm - Portugal v Chile - 1.81 home - a friendly and you saw questionable motivation of uruguay against a team they should beat easily, so friendlies are best left alone unless you can actually watch and gauge the match and react accordingly.

240 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Bear´s Affair, 9/4 Our Mick, 16/1 Steeldrivinman, 33/1 Robello, 33/1 Sleeping Du Granit, 66/1 Summer De Baune.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Basically a match, with unbeaten BEAR'S AFFAIR entitled to clear preference over Our Mick. The selection's easy debut win over hurdles was boosted earlier in the week and he should make it three wins from three career starts, albeit at likely very short odds. [Mel Cullinan]

2 only under 33/1 here and of course the bigger priced of the 2 is the better value. This assumes both horses complete and place in this 2 the place race.

The Kempton card begins with 2 maidens which need insider info and market consideration right up to the off and the rest of the card is the usual Saturday bookies benefit day.

2 listed races at Lingfield start the card but these are competitive events ( of course)

340 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Musawama, 7/2 Tasheyaat, 10/1 Harry Lime, 10/1 King Kieren, 14/1 Diocese, 20/1 Viking Storm, 25/1 No Time For Tears, 33/1 Yahafedh Alaih, 50/1 Miles Of Sunshine.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see what confidence there is behind Oaks entry Tasheyaat on her debut, especially with the yard's 3yos going so well, but preference is for Hamdan Al-Maktoum's other runner, the Derby entry MUSAWAMA whose Sandown second sets a clear standard.[Adrian Cook]

Only 2 under 10/1 in the betting forecast -The favourite has a 197 day absence to overcome and has not run on the all weather. The 2nd favourite is a debutant and we are going purely on the market and the Oaks entry.


245 NAVAN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tawaagg, 11/4 Montan, 4/1 The Hurl, 7/1 Coscorrig, 8/1 Darceys Dancer, 9/1 Uncle Tom Cobley, 16/1Scouting Party, 33/1 Spice Hill, 66/1 Glad Lion.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With an official rating of 135 The Hurl sets a decent standard here, but the trip may prove inadequate for him, and preference is for TAWAAGG who has a progressive profile. Montan should also come into the reckoning. [Alan Sweetman]

Mullins fav has come 2nd and 1st in his 2 chase races. They are waiting up behind him though with a tightish market between 4/1 - - 8/1


400 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Kid Cassidy, 7/2 Tony Star, 5/1 Current Event, 12/1 Fontano, 12/1 Katchmore, 16/1 Cheney Manor, 40/1 Only Witness, 50/1 Surf And Turf.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kid Cassidy is very much the form horse, despite his defeat last time, but a few doubts have been introduced. The ex-French Current Event is one very plausible alternative on his seond run for Paul Nicholls but the vote goes toTONY STAR who saw off a decent field at Huntingdon on his British debut.[Richard Austen]

3 under 12/1 here and the big boys are out including Henderson/McCoy and Walsh/Nicholls amongst the 3 under 12/1.

540 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Penelope Pips, 7/4 Dazzling Rita, 9/1 Bollistick.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Bollistick having shown so little on debut, it's guesswork which of the newcomers to back. The betting should provide the answer but DAZZLING RITA is a half-sister to a bumper winner that her trainer and jockey know well and is the suggestion at this range.[Paul Johnson]

A bumper and 2 newcomers - faith in the market nearer the off. 2 of the 3 horses will place, one will not, a perfect probability race.

115 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 J J The Jet Plane, 10/1 War Artist, 12/1 Happy Dubai, 12/1 Mr Gruff, 12/1 Sole Power, 12/1Stradivinsky, 14/1 Monsieur Joe, 16/1 Better Be The One, 16/1 Prohibit, 16/1 Quick Enough, 16/1 Spin Cycle, 16/1 Triple Aspect, 20/1 Inxile, 25/1 Mar Adentro, 33/1 Piccadilly Filly, 50/1 Invincible Ash.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is the first time this race has been run over the minimum distance and only a handful can be seriously fancied. There's going to be a decent gallop and it's hard to get away from J J THE JET PLANE (nap), who is second only to Australian superstar Black Caviar in the World Sprint Rankings and who posted a tremendous performance to win off a mark of 122 in handicap company this month. The drop back to this trip is unlikely to inconvenience this strong traveller and he's taken to beatWar Artist, who should be suited by the way things unfold. [Richard Young]

I put up JJ the jet plane when he last ran and he won easily - this is a monster price gap which is reflected in the live betting market.


SHORTLIST

2pm - England U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.41 home - an illiquid market alas but in running and the draw looks worth laying if the form is accurate?

3pm - Wales v England - 1.46 away - Wales have been beating really piss poor opposition and really are there for the taking. Yes, local rivalry could bring a surprise, and against Montenegro , England were poor.

7pm - Andorra v Slovakia - 1.09 away - 1.6 over 2.5 goals ( albeit illiquid market) is a great surprise for a 1.09 shot.

7pm - Germany v Kazakhstan - 1.04 - 5-0 /6-0 worth backing? ( illiquid on betfair - back with a booky and trade with betfair.)

halftime Germany is 1.18 and is bumped up slightly.

1.18 over 2.5 goals and speculate on 1.48 over 3.5 goals or even 1.8 over 4.5 goals which could have some trading leverage.

745pm - Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia - 1.54 home - under 3.5 goals is 1.28 which has a chance of coming in with Macedonia's strong defensive leanings.

240 BANGOR - Bears affair is 1.09 with Our Mick 1.21 to place. The latter's jumping was questionable in the analysis of his last race. If the jumping holds up, he has a great chance of placing.

400 NEWBURY - Kid Cassidy is 1.22 to place in a 9 runner race where 3 are only under 10/1

540 STRATFORD - if you are able to, then check the market - 3 horses and 2 places and a great probability shot.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

3pm - Wales v England - 1.46 away - a chance perhaps given that Wales have been in poor form and are missing Bale. Cover the 0-0 incase of an above average defensive display?

7pm - Germany v Kazakhstan - 1.04 - 1.18 over 2.5 goals should come in eventually

745pm - Rep of Ireland v FYR Macedonia - 1.54 home - under 3.5 goals at 1.28 looks a great bet here. It is tradable too and that would be advised.

240 BANGOR - Our Mick at 1.2 could place in what seems a 2 horse race. Only 2 places though.


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