back-lay-trade-horses-football: 16/3

2 Champions League shorties this evening, one could do with a win , although with the away goal it is not a prerequisite, and the other team have 2 away goals and lack the winning motivation I like to see when backing at 1.32.
Real Madrid to qualify at 1.16 is the safest bet to take out of the matches this evening. I suspect there is leeway in backing Real Madrid in the match odds at 1.32. Mourinho is an expert 1-1, 2-2, 1-1 in last 3 head to heads at Real a slight concern, although in March 2010 Real scored first after 6 minutes. But Mourinho has been brought in to sort this out and ensure Real qualify.
Time for Rupert is the price gapper of the day and a previous 2 time Cheltenham Chase winner. 5/2 - - - -- 7/1 - has drifted from 9/4, but still if he has a clear round he should place here.
Chelsea are far superior to Copenhagen, and despite lacking motivation, should win this evening. A match against Man City on Sunday though may signal a shuffling of the cards.

*****ONE A DAY - 240 CHELTENHAM - TIME FOR RUPERT TO PLACE*****
A risk today but 3 of the last 4 favourites have won this race and I am only looking for a place here ( 3 places) a course and distance winner, a clear round should see him competitive under a jockey who has ridden the last 5 rides at Cheltenham 12211 the form for those.

For those who want safety, then Real Madrid to qualify at 1.16 is the best bet of the day. I am going to try speculating today and hope it pays off.

Frustrating as my Cheltenham shortlisters all did the job at juicy prices, Hurricane Fly, and garde Champetre especially at over evens. I told you the writing off of Inter by market makers was false, and you could have profitted well, especially the lay of Bayern to qualify at 1.25.
Man Utd qualified so that was the one a day in the bag, but thatthreat of a Marseille goal dangled like the sword of Damocles.

4pm - Omonia v Aris Limassol - 1.16 home -IN PLAY - Cypriot Cup Match this one featuring Division 1 v Division 2 hence the strong bias towards the home side from Division 1.
Division 1 head to heads 2009 and 2010 were tight 1-0 and 2-1 which hints at laying the 1.16 initially? 1.16 usually signals, as you know by now, 3,4,5 goals for the home side - will this occur today?

5pm - NK Maribor v Nafta - 1.28 home - just match odds and an illiquid market. Only 3 matches in to the season not enough to gauge health, or otherwise, of these teams.

745pm - Chelsea v FC Copenhagen - 1.32 home. - 2-0 away goals means that Chelsea can go through with a 0-0, 1-0 loss, 1-1 draw i.e. there is no motivation to win this match. They were quite clearly the superior side in Copenhagen. The lack of the competitive fixture for Copenhagen showed.
Copenhagen need a 2-0 minimum to take the match into extra time and a w3-0 to go through in 90 minutes - it ain't gonna happen!
The point you need to evaluate is whether Chelsea are backable given their lack of motivation to win. Avoid Copenhagen scoring 2 and it's job done.
The recent win over Man Utd at home may see the home fans baying for blood this evening.

745pm - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.46 away - I wouldn't trust this lot betting with stolen money away from home - bracket them in wuith Real. You just don't know when they will perform or " do a Motherwell i.e. turn up and look like a Sunday League outfit. Still, at 1.46, well worth investigating. Scottish Cup match -I'll give this one a miss. Will Super caley go ballistic because Celtic are atrocious?

745pm - Real Madrid v Lyon - 1.36 home 1-1 from the first leg puts Real Madrid in the driving seat. They have the Champions League master Mourinho at the helm .
Real need a 0-0 this evening to go through. Lyon need a 1-0 to go through.Benzema, who previously couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo, has scored 6 goals in his last 3 matches. Ronaldo was rested against Hercules so will be let off the leash. Benzema also scored against lyon to get that away goal and looks like a good bet in the any goalscorer market.
The last 3 times these 2 have met in the Champions League, the matches have been score draws - a score draw tonight will take the match into extra time ( 1-1) but a 2-2 score draw will put Lyon through on away goals.

00.45 - Argentina v Venezuela - 1.36 home - very interesting international. I doubt we will be seeing Messi et al but if we do see Messi et al, "chaaaarrrrrggggggeeeee" An international friendly so watch out for team news.

205 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 So Young, 3/1 Oscars Well, 6/1 First Lieutenant, 8/1 Rock On Ruby, 10/1 Minella Class, 10/1 Tornado Bob, 14/1 Megastar, 25/1 Aikman, 33/1 Habbie Simpson, 50/1 Highland Valley, 100/1 Accordintolawrence, 100/1 Ohio Gold.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willie Mullins won this race in 2008 and 2009 and can strike again with SO YOUNG who has been highly impressive in both his hurdling starts. First Lieutenant and Oscars Well help give the Irish a strong hand with Tornado Bob, from last year's winning yard, appealing most of the home team.[Adrian Cook]

7 horses under 25/1 here should, I hope, fight for the 3 places. Mullins/Walsh were devastating on Quevega.

240 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Time For Rupert, 7/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 7/1 Jessies Dream, 9/1 Wayward Prince, 10/1 Mikael D´haguenet, 10/1 Wymott, 12/1 Bostons Angel, 14/1 Master Of The Hall, 14/1 Quel Esprit, 14/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Magnanimity, 100/1 Elysian Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIME FOR RUPERT (nap), who might not have looked out of place in the Gold Cup line-up, has too much to recommend him to be jettisoned now by his legion of followers. He jumps well, had the class to finish a clear second to Big Buck's over hurdles 12 months ago, is unbeaten in two chase ventures here and the form of both those races has been advertised. The Giant Bolster will relish the return to 3m and could be interesting each-way at a big price.[Paul Johnson]

Big price gapper at such a top quality Festival must mean something 5/2 - - -- 7/1 - can we trust Time for Rupert to place here? I know little of Time for Rupert bar what is offered by the Racing Post - not out of the first 2 in 5 outings here I believe.

320 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Big Zeb, 100/30 Master Minded, 8/1 Sizing Europe, 8/1 Somersby, 8/1 Woolcombe Folly, 9/1 Captain Cee Bee, 10/1 Golden Silver, 20/1 French Opera, 33/1 Mad Max, 100/1 Cornas, 100/1 I´m So Lucky.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Master Minded, who ruled supreme among two-milers in 2008 and 2009, was dethroned by Big Zeb a year ago when the ground dried up and the elements have again conspired against him. Big Zeb does not look as solid as he might have done before his Punchestown defeat by Golden Silver and the latter is a big price even allowing for his poor Cheltenham record. The established order could be about to change, therefore, with last year's novices Somersby and WOOLCOMBE FOLLY very much on the up. Underfoot conditions will suit Paul Nicholls' number two, so impressive here in December, rather than his rival and he can foil Big Zeb.[Frank Carter]

Another class race sees Big Zeb and Masterminded pretty much share favouratism. I cannot split them and hope they dominate.

255 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bardolet, 7/2 King Of Leon, 5/1 Absolute Shambles, 8/1 Doc Reason, 25/1 Kercabellec.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Reveleys have enjoyed their raids on Huntingdon over the years and it's unlikely Bardolet will go off at particularly generous odds following last week's Catterick victory. Hoping that ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, a C&D winner off 4lb higher in the past, can be revived by the first-time visor represents a more adventurous option. [Jeremy Grayson]

3 under 12/1 to dominate?

455 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Emmaslegend, 6/1 Sambelucky, 7/1 Borderhopper, 10/1 Carys´s Lad, 10/1 Kilbready Star, 16/1 Everdon Brook, 16/1 Hi Ho Silvia, 16/1 Masterpoint, 33/1 Sir Clad, 33/1 Young Valentino.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EMMASLEGEND (nap) was a revelation back from a break in a tongue-tie at Wincanton recently and she has plenty going for her with her talented amateur's claim offsetting the penalty. Sambelucky may be next best.[Emily Weber]

4 under 14/1 here and Emmaslegend a chance to place?

530 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Cue To Cue, 100/30 Solaise, 5/1 Keyaza, 8/1 Tiradia, 12/1 Renovatio, 16/1 Graceful Spirit, 25/1 Sillkom, 25/1 Sleeping Du Granit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CUE TO CUE ran some very promising sorts respectably close at Southwell, and Keith Reveleys mare can record a debut success in receipt of a stone from the penalised Solaise. Keyaza looks the most interesting of the remainder. [Jeremy Grayson]

5 debutants here and as you know in bumpers now, look at the market nearer the off.

550 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lewyn, 9/4 Desert Strike, 9/2 Romantic Queen, 9/2 Wanchai Whisper, 20/1 Bluebok, 33/1 Lithaam, 33/1 Sir Loin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lewyn is just about the pick of the weights and should go wellm but preference is for WANCHAI WHISPER who has a bit to find strictly at the weights but whose unbeaten C&D record tips things in her favour.[Richard Young]

4 under 16/1 here but an evening race.

650 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Grand Piano, 7/2 Winniepeg, 6/1 Add Lib, 10/1 Demoiselle Bond, 10/1 Fleurie Lover, 10/1 Flying Cherry, 33/1 Pharoh Jake, 50/1 Lagan Lullaby.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Grand Piano is the one to beat on form but he's not bombproof in this grade and preference is for WINNIEPEG, who wasn't totally disgraced in a race that threw up winners on her debut, is open to improvement and who hails from an in-form yard.[Richard Young]

8 runners and 3 places makes this an interesting race. Only 2 under 8/1 here. Grand Piano odds on but this race goes off mid evening and common sense tells uss its better to make decisions on maidens then rather than 10 hours prior.

505 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Striking The Wind, 7/2 Exchange, 11/2 Goal, 17/2 Honest Deal, 12/1 Rapid Request, 12/1 Tombellini, 20/1 J R Hartley, 25/1 Marvellous City, 28/1 Lyford Lad, 40/1 Chik´s Dream, 50/1 Carrside Lady, 50/1 Into Mac.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lots of dead wood in an uncompetitive maiden. Exchange has to be respected but STRIKING THE WIND sets the standard on last month's debut second in a 6f maiden here and is readily preferred.[Mel Cullinan]

The spectre of Black pond returns! Striking the wind has had the one run over course for Mark Johnston and must enter calculations , but can we trust the market for this maiden so early on?

3 under 12/1 currently and Honest Deal is the market mover into 5/2 .

Interesting re Striking the wind that "his sire is now just 1-15 on the Southwell Fibresand." but will that preclude placing?

TENNIS - BNP PARIBAS

915pm - Troicki v Djokovic - 1.11 Djokovic - I normally just reserve my bets to the big boys and girls.

2am - Nadal v Devvarman - 1.03 - back Nadal 2-0 sets betting at around 1.13?

3.15 am -Harrison v Federer - 1.05 the Fed and 1.24 2-0 in sets a lot more generous.

SHORTLIST

4pm - Omonia v Aris Limassol - 1.16 home - one of my prerequisites here in Cup matches is a gulf in leagues - Division 1 v Division 2. 1.16 signals 3+ goal win for Omonia but head to heads in 2009 and 2010 signal possible tight match.