It is a choice, I think, between 345 Lingfield and the experience of Roman Flame at 1.24 to place, or Zwolle not having another scoreless draw at home this evening, at around 1.26
*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Zwolle v Roosendaal -back Zwolle at 1.26 in the match odds***** - I suspect the 0-0 will be the killer here in this match. 4 matches without conceding for Zwolle means , I hope, that if they score, they win.
Pity I only went place only on Big Buck's with his Thou Shalt Not Pass attitude.
Recent away form - LLDLLLL - no wonder Zwolle are so short, but can we trust Zwolle to not throw in another 0-0 performance as they do out of the blue.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLLDLDLLL - no wonder Zwolle are so short
GOALTRENDS - 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.
Have kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 27 matches this season so surely Zwolle can engineer at least a goal?
No clean sheets away from home. Have conceded an average of 2.15 per game.
STREAKS - no win in 10 away - current losing streak of 4 away.
As I mention in the eletter today, this is top v bottom at the business end of the season so watch out for a bit of pluck from the pluckers at the bottom.
1st v 14th
HEAD TO HEADS - 1-1 Plz away , 0-0, Plz away, 0-2 Plz away win, 0-0 Plz home draw, 0-3 Plz away win.
PLZEN RECENT HOME FORM - again a return from the Winter Break leaves us only 2 competitive matches , 2-1 and 1-0 wins for Plzen.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - see above.
GOAL TRENDS - see above
Ceske - 2-2 home draw , 2-0 away loss, 1-1 home draw in their 3 matches.
This match, alas, falls into the category of leagues coming back from a Winter Break and consequently not having any real competitive form to go on.
745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse - 1.4 home
4th v 15th
HEAD TO HEADS - 2-1 Vitesse away win, 2-1 Vitesse away win, 3-0 Alkmaar away win (2010), 1-1 AZ away draw ( 90th minute Vitesse equaliser 2010)
Unconvincing head to heads but 2 wins for AZ in 2010 might see them a stronger outfit in 2010.
AZ ALKMAAR - RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDWLW - inconclusive 4 wins in 7. Loss against PSV, top side, and draws at home against 6th and 9th in the league.
AZ are just not quite up there with PSV, Twente, Ajax as comfortable home betting mediums.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDWLLWWLW - last 2 losses against PSV and Ajax and they also threw in a loss away to 16th placed Excelsior which may show some vulnerability against a team 15th?
GOAL TRENDS - 69% of home matches over 2.5 goals.
6 of the last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
7/10 matches against bottom 10 sides ( not played 13th, 14th, 15th at home yet so 7/7) at home have been over 1.5 goals. 8 of last 9 matches at home have been over 2.5 goals. The exception was a 2-0 home win.
STREAKS - 7 matches without a draw, 3 at home.
VITESSE
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDLDLLL - poor away record for Vitesse could allow AZ to take advantage.
Have played 7 of the top 11 sides away from home and lost the lot which augurs well for AZ tonight.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWDLWLWD - inconsistency the best word to describe that.
All of the positive results in that list above have come at home for Vitesse so they really don't do travelling.
Home form recently? WDWWD Away form recently?LDLLL
GOAL TRENDS - concede on average 2.23 away from home.
Only 2 of Vitesse's last 10 matches have been over 2,5 goals. - a suprise to me too!
Have only failed to score once in last 7 matches.
Hugely vulnerable in the 15 minutes before and after half time conceding a total of 22.
STREAKS - 6 away matches without a win, 3 without a draw and 3 without a win.
320 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Imperial Commander, 9/2 Long Run, 5/1 Kauto Star, 11/2 Denman, 11/1 Kempes, 12/1 Pandorama, 14/1 Midnight Chase, 20/1 Tidal Bay, 20/1 Weird Al, 25/1 China Rock, 33/1 Neptune Collonges, 33/1 What A Friend, 66/1 Carruthers.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An utterly absorbing contest even though there are very good reasons for wanting to oppose each and every runner. The suggestion for those requiring financial interest is last year's winner IMPERIAL COMMANDER who has far too many off days for comfort but boasts such an imposing record over fences on this track, isn't ground dependent and goes so well fresh. Denman has a good chance on the figures, given his mighty Hennessy effort, and makes most appeal of the Ditcheat brigade, while Kempes is on an upward curve and has each-way claims and fellow Irish raider Pandorama will come into his own if the ground has softened significantly by post time. Long Run could obviously be a cut above them all if the longer trip and a return to Cheltenham don't conspire against him.[Paul Johnson]
Who'd have thunk it! Not a mention for Kauto Star in the Spotlight Verdict.
I think this is more of a race to savour than have any real financial interest in in a tricky
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Protractor, 7/2 Roman Flame, 10/1 Red Copper, 50/1 Beautiful Lando.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very weak maiden and the well-bred PROTRACTOR will not have to be up to much to make a winning debut and give Barry Hills a third 3yo maiden win this month with a newcomer.[Adrian Cook]
nowhere near the 1/3 this Protractor which leads me to think that Roman Flame could be the one for the place only money.
540 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bestwecan, 13/8 Echos Of Motivator, 5/1 Not So Bright, 7/1 Dubai Glory, 25/1 Twilight Express.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden in which BESTWECAN can build on his debut third over C&D a fortnight ago and improve past Echos Of Motivator.[Adrian Cook]
Johnston favourite and a very eyecatching Kieren Fallon onboard makes this very interesting indeed. The flat season is on its way!
525 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Midnight Trader, 3/1 Sparking, 12/1 Francis Albert, 14/1 Gorgeous Goblin, 33/1 Kaminski Kabs, 66/1 Stoneacre Joe Joe.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIDNIGHT TRADER is almost certainly going to be better over further than this in time but he has shown more than enough to think he has races in him and can prove too strong for the frustrating Sparking and Francis Albert.[Paul Smith]
3 under 20/1 - trust the obvious?
820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Snowy Peak, 6/1 Apple Dumpling, 8/1 Anna Fontenail, 8/1 Crossword, 10/1 Distinguish, 10/1 Lakota Ghost, 10/1 Little Jazz, 14/1 Crown Ridge, 25/1 Generous Genella, 25/1 Lady Morganna, 25/1 Varlak, 33/1 Bertie Blu Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The most interesting runner here is SNOWY PEAK, who has shown plenty of ability in maidens and who should be very well suited by the step up to this trip for this first venture in handicaps. Her stable is operating at a 33% strike rate this year and she is taken to beat Apple Dumpling. [Richard Young]
Price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap - out to 10/3 though in the betting so one to leave alone I think.
SHORTLIST
7pm - Zwolle v Roosendaal - 1.25 home - Zwolle have failed to score 2 matches on the trot but those were away matches.I acknowledge that this is top v near bottom so points vital for Jim Roosendaal but 4 clean sheets in last 4 matches and only failing to score in 1 of last 5.
The 0-0 cannot be insured on Betfair but can be done at the bookies. It will take 0.8 off the profit.
745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse - 1.4 home - this relies on Vitesse showing up with their poor recent away form as against their completely different home form. 1.23 over 1.5 goals an option?
345 LINGFIELD -Protractor is nowhere near the 1/3 betting forecast quote in this 3 horse race for 2 places.
Trust the newcomer or Roman Flame who has the placed form in maidens Red copper at 10/1 is the fly in the ointment as the only other horse under 33/1
About 1.24 for both to place which may be worth a go.
540 LINGFIELD - the sight of Kieren Fallon is , of course, no guarantee of a win or a place, but is a great boon to the chances of Bestwecan , a Mark Johnston horse, and current favourite. Illiquid betting market at present.
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