9/3

An extremely difficult today with 2 Champions League matches where the permutations are unending and I would stress involvement after watching as yesterday with barca whos dominance was obvious to all - possession wise and attacking wise.

***** 1pm Hajduk Kula v Partizan Belgrade - back Partizan Belgrade in the Match odds at 1.24 - I would go no lower than 1.2 and try to use bookmakers if you can, like Ladbrokes and Bet365.*****

2nd from bottom v top -the odds are reasonable enough in a tough day. match odds only available which are slightly offputting.

Glitzy D'ocala was 2nd at 1.15 Betfair SP. Faith in Barca and over 2.5 goals when barca and Arsenal meet eh?

1pm Hajduk Kula v Partizan Belgrade - 1.23 away - Serbian top flight - very illiquid market and a return from the Winter Break . 5/5 for Partizan in most recent head to heads, only failing to score 2 or more against kula once. only one win in last 12 for Kula goes back to 2010 largely. And sees a huge amount of draws. Last 12 matches LLDWLLDDDLDD - 4 draws on the trot in the league. 2nd from bottom plays top today. Only 2 wins at home in last 12. Partizan by contrast have only had 2 defeats in their last 12 and those were in the Champions League, so they are in good nick. They have played 4 friendlies in last 5 matches so difficult to gauge if they are spot on. 3-1 away win back in the league latest shows they are ok. that was against 4th from bottom.

5pm - Crvena Zvezda v Indija - 1.1 home - 2nd v 4th from bottom in the Serbian top flight and the market very illiquid - same price as Bet365. again only one recent league game to go on saw a 1-0 home win for Crv.

indija have lost their last 7 matches in a row, 3 of those were friendlies. Lost 3-1 at home to Partizan so expect a similar scoreline today against 2nd in the league.

745pm - Schalke v Valencia - again let's see if we can suss out the minimum scorelines required by each team. 1-1 from the first leg and it is Schalke with an away goal to defend. I am reminded of Schalke's defensive capabilities in shutting out Bayern Munich recently in a German Cup semi final and winning 1-0. So bear that in mind. This is a Bayern side that had regularly been scoring 3 and 4 in their matches. Again away from home at the weekend, Schalke were a man down after 15 minutes and only lost 1-0 to the penalty that followed the sending off.

0-0 suits Schalke. 1-0 sees Valencia through. This may see a tight opening few minutes as the Barca game saw yesterday.

Raul could be the key man tonight and a bet on him scoring may have a chance in a likely tight encounter.

Schalke's recent scorelines in all competitions - 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 2-2 ( cup quarter final) , 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0

An ability to keep things tight.

Valencia have scored 2 in each of their last 3 la Liga matches and the Racing Post tells me they have scored in last 3 Champions league matches this season.

745pm - Tottenham v AC Milan - 2.36 home - Bale is back and that must be great news for Spurs. Milan will know him all too well after what he did against Inter Milan. a 1-0 lead for Spurs means they have the away goal. 0-0 will suffice for them. A 1-0 loss will bring the match into extra time. AC Milan need to win 2-0 to qualify in 90 minutes. If Spurs score first, AC Milan will still need 2 goals which will then win the tie at 1-2 on away goals.

Spurs scoring 2 goals is the absolute ideal tonight.

AC Milan need a minimum 1-0 scoreline to bring them to extra time, and 2-0 for qualification inthe 90.

Interesting stat from the Racing Post that 7 of 8 of Spurs' last home European fixtures have featured 3 goals or more. Over 1.5 goals to start?

No van Der Vaart is really a huge miss for Spurs, and Bale a ? . The fact AC Milan need 2 goals ideally means this match has a different dynamic than the slowly starting Barca match yesterday.

8pm - Everton v Birmingham - 1.57 home - a win will take Birmingham as high as 12th in the league this evening - an amazing leap from 3rd from bottom. It just relays how tight things are now, which may bring about a different dynamic to fixtures involving the bottom 9 teams.

We saw Wigan lose cruelly against Man City away and Birmingham are capable on their day, now the, ahem, euphoria of winning a Carling Cup has ebbed away. Birmingham actually have 2 games in hand over the bottom 2 and , winning both of those will bring them, provisionally, to 10th in the Premiership, where Everton are!

As you can see, those in trouble are 2 wins from possible safety ( other results notwithstanding)

So it is with a degree of caution that we look at these matches in March and April. Teams can suddenly perform better than form and stats dictate.

HEAD TO HEADS - Everton are unbeaten in the league against Brum and last 3 head to heads in league only ( there was a cup match ) read Everton home draw ( 1-1), Birmingham home draw (2-2) and Everton away win (2-0) A closer look at the away win sees a typical Brum tight at home 1-0 via an own goal followed by a 92nd minute Everton clincher.

EVERTON RECENT HOME FORM

DLLDWDWW - nice run of 5 unbeaten and 3 wins in 4 , also includes wins over Sunderland and Spurs - shows an Everton side in reasonable nick at home. In fact, everton have only lost 3 matches at home, v Arsenal ( expected I suppose), Newcastle ( 1-0) and WestBrom. Home performance against the bottom 4 is 2-2 ( west Ham) , 1-1 Wolves, 0-0 Wigan. Any coincidence we have 3 draws?

We are beginning to understand the short quote for Everton today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDDLWLWW - 3 wins in last 4 for Everton, the 2 recent losses were away to Arsenal and Everton.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of Everton's last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals , with the 2 exceptions both 2-0's

Everton have only kept 2 clean sheets in 18 matches and only failed to score once in their last 8 matches. It all points to conceding and scoring in equal measure recently.

Automatically over 1.5 goals?

46% over 2.5 goals at home unremarkable and overs could go either way.

The last half hour is key to Everton. They conceded 11 in the 61st to 75th minute and scored 13 in the last quarter of an hour.

cahill, BEckford and Saha like it at home so a hope they are all playing .

STREAKS - 5 matches without defeat at home.

BIRMINGHAM

RECENT AWAY FORM

DLDDLWLW - recent wins against BLackpool and West Ham.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLWDLDWWLL - inconsistent I thinks sums Brum up . Put the recent home losses into perspective regarding Carling Cup Final before and after ( avoid injury for Wembley day out and after the lord mayor's show)

5 draws, 5 defeats and 2 wins away for Brum. How significant is it that the only 2 away wins this season have come in their last 3 away matches?

GOAL TRENDS - 58% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Concede on average 1.66 goals. Only one of Birmingham's last 4 matches has been over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - Brum have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 13 matches ( albeit these clean sheets came in last 2 of last 4 matches)

4 away matches without a draw.

You get the feeling that a draw is less than useful for Brum, so consideration for this streak continuing?

My concern today is that the need is greater with Birmingham and that might just bring out the best in them. 2 wins takes them to near 10th - quite unbelievable. A good stat from the Racing Post, that Birmingham have lost on only 1 of their last 5 visits to goodison.

1030pm - Fluminense RJ v America RJ - 1.35 home - not got a clue about this one I'm afraid albeit to notice that America have been on the wrong side of some big scorelines recently , including a recent 9-0 ( too busy trying to invade oil rich nations when they should be concentrating on the pitch!)

220 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bromhead, 5/2 Wake Board, 6/1 Perfectus, 14/1 Chadwell Spring, 14/1 Daraybad, 14/1 Royal Willy, 20/1 Autumn Harvest, 20/1 Bold Indian, 33/1 Princess Aliuska.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wave Board has obvious claims on his old form if returning fit after a lay-off, while the form ofBromhead's last hurdles second has been franked but a last chance is given to PERFECTUS now back down in trip at this level.[Paul Johnson]

3 under 10/1 and 4 under 14/1 in this selling hurdle. Can we make a case for probability betting despite the poor quality of the race.

300 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Gurtacrue, 4/1 Coolbeg, 11/2 Allerford Jack, 6/1 Penchesco, 10/1 Journeyman, 14/1 Just Cloudy, 14/1 Petit Ecuyer, 33/1 Sir William Orpen, 50/1 Private Patient, 100/1 Young Valentino.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a suitable opportunity for GURTACRUE (nap) to register a first success in Britain.Coolbeg appears to be the main danger.[Jonathan Neesom]

A maiden hurdler who has had recent hurdles placed form in Gurtacrue in a race which should be whittled down to 6 horses.

530 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Brilliant Barca, 5/1 Arizona High, 6/1 Bodie, 10/1 Dubai Glory, 12/1 On Wings Of Love, 12/1 Peachez, 16/1 Rainbows Reach, 66/1 Beautiful Lando.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although Arizona High is capable of better, he needs to learn to settle and if BRILLIANT BARCA can reproduce his debut effort, he should prove hard to beat.[Paul Smith]

A coincidence bet if ever there was one!! 2nd at 12/1 in a class 6 10 furlong maiden last time out, the horse may be over bet today given its name?

Only 1 run but remains 5/6 and in an ideal place only race, 8 runners and 3 places and 4 under 12/1

310 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Stoneacre Gareth, 9/2 Spinning Ridge, 11/2 Tudor Prince, 7/1 Patavium Prince, 10/1 Loyal Royal, 14/1 Signora Frasi, 16/1 Bold Ring, 16/1 Crazy Parachute, 16/1 Sonny G, 20/1 Goodbye Cash, 20/1 Silver Wind, 20/1Tuscan King, 25/1 Goose Green, 25/1 Teen Ager.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are of interest but STONEACRE GARETH (nap) never looked like getting beaten when following up his Kempton win at Wolverhampton last week and may be able to complete the three-timer despite the tougher competition. Spinning Ridge is also respected but the wide draw complicates things.[Emily Weber]

A mention last time he ran, Stoneacre gareth won - that was in a class 7 0-50. This is a class 6 0-60 and his main rival is one of several non runners.

Up slightly in grade, Stoneacre is 13/8 - - - - -5/1 in the betting which is quite a surprise. Can he place again?

340 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blink Of An Eye, 3/1 Cold Secret, 3/1 Fog Cutter, 9/2 Cool Macavity, 16/1 Beauchamp Zest, 20/1 Shelagh, 33/1 Ability Girl, 33/1 Jackie Love, 66/1 Trust Me Boy, 66/1 Valdaw, 100/1 Lord Sun.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those that have shown ability are no more than fair and it could pay to side with newcomersBLINK OF AN EYE and Cool Macavity. Over 7f at this track, preference is for the former, who hails from a yard that has been on the mark with its last three runners, who has winners in his pedigree and whose entries suggest he has been showing a bit at home. [Richard Young]

A messy maiden as there are a lot of newcomers but 5 only under 20/1 - faith in the market that these 5 will fight it out for the 2 places?

215 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Super Sonic Boom, 4/1 Kalann, 5/1 Priors Gold, 8/1 Essexbridge, 10/1 Mullaghmore Glens, 12/1 Gamede, 14/1 Longliner, 14/1 Sarsfields Legend, 14/1 Tapaigh An Deis, 16/1 Bellavic, 16/1 Billytheblacksmith, 16/1 Formal Bid, 16/1 Lucky Beguine, 16/1 Scottish Boogie, 20/1 Marching Orders, 20/1 Mountain Close, 20/1 Tillargon, 25/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Blanket Signal, 50/1 Cartron Lady, 50/1 Jacks Choice, 50/1 Killura, 50/1 Knockgraffon Lad, 50/1 Madera Drawn, 50/1 Sun Disc.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This maiden lacks strength in depth with the experienced pair Kalaan and Priors Gold holding claims on what they have shown so far but a chance is taken with hurdling debutant SUPER SONIC BOOM who is sure to be well schooled coming from these quarters. [Brian Fleming]

Laurel and Hardy, Xavi and Iniesta, and another great partnership Walsh and Mullins return onboard Super Sonic Boom in this big field maiden hurdle.

A natural market leader, it is a matter of faith in connections as this is one of many debutants in this race.

315 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 King Of The Refs, 7/2 Serein, 5/1 Resolute Bay, 8/1 Celtic Wish, 8/1 Original Option, 12/1Boro Bee, 14/1 Curling, 14/1 Dingaling, 16/1 Baby Whizz, 16/1 Laureldeans Best, 16/1 Namarama, 20/1 First Impressions, 20/1Flemen Times Ahead, 20/1 Knacky Lad, 20/1 Maddoxtown, 25/1 Dapper Dan, 33/1 Coin River, 33/1 Fair Dilemma, 50/1 Asia To Cuba, 50/1 Demoolah, 50/1 Great Alex, 50/1 Rathmoyle House, 50/1 Valours Minion, 100/1 Arkmore Vallee, 100/1 Day Dream Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Resolute Bay and Serein both deserve another look on this better surface but preference is for Tony Martin's KING OF THE REFS with Ruby Walsh booked. [Brian Fleming]

Walsh again on a market leader for Tony Martin , albeit another maiden hurdle.

SHORTLIST

1pm Hajduk Kula v Partizan Belgrade - 1.23 away - again with personal preference being to approach the Champions League matches from a view first, bet later attitude ( you will have seen yesterday how dominant Barca were and , I hope, backed them with that in mind or backed Barca NEXT GOAL) . This makes this match of interest today. 2nd from bottom plays top and by my own admission I know nothing of the Serbian League although acknowledge PArtizan were in the Champions League this season.

5pm - Crvena Zvezda v Indija - 1.1 home - another Serbian League match which should go the way of the odds sees 2nd v 4th from bottom.

745pm - Schalke v Valencia - Schalke are reknowned for solidity in defence of late, at least domestically and have an away goal to defend. 0-0 sees Schalke through and 1-0 sees Valencia through. Perhaps under 3.5 goals here at 1.28 ? The uniqueness of the match though makes it tough to bet in. I am tempted to lay Schalke /Schalke Halftime/fulltime at 5.1 ( equivalent of a 1.24 back bet) . If a draw or Valencia win at half time, the bet is home.

Schalke win to nil NO is 1.25 currently and needs a draw or Valencia goal to come good.

745pm - Tottenham v AC Milan - here's a list of markets at the prices I would be interested in.

Tottenham to win to nil - NO - 1.27

Tottenham clean sheet - NO - 1.41 is quite tempting. Milan score, it's job done.

Over 1.5 goals is 1.37 which is quite generous considering Milan need 2 to go through after 90 minutes and need 2 still if Spurs score.

Lay Spurs in the Match odds at 2.36 ( trading in mind) as the onus is more on Milan to open the scoring.

Lay Spurs/Spurs Halftime/Fulltime at 4.2 is around a 1.31 bet. It covers the draw/Milan halftime result.

Lay First Goal Odds 0-10 minutes - 5.9 for an equivalent 1.20 back bet.

8pm - Everton v Birmingham - 1.57 home - 3 wins in 4 for Everton, but Brum have recorded their only 2 wins away in their last 3 matches . A possibility of no Zigic today a big miss for Brum. I would have opted for over 1.5 goals as all of everton's last 8 matches have been over 1.5 goals ( 6 of those over 2.5 goals) 1.36.

If Cahill, Beckford and Saha play tonight, I think Everton could be the team which scores first.

There may be leeway in backing 0-0 for an initial early trade as I think this could be tight early doors.

220 CATTERICK - Bromhead is the one for support of the 4 horses under 16./1 in this 9 runner selling hurdle.1.28 to place is reasonable. The race type, of course, puts me off slightly. Well beaten in a class 6 0-65 all weather handicap latest on the flat tells you the kind of "quality" we have in this race if Bromhead is the fancied market leader.

530 KEMPTON - 3 places and only 5 under 25/1 but this is a maiden and you know by now that we have to look nearer to 530pm to account for the kind of market moves and drifts that spoilt Black Pond as a one a dayer.

215 NAAS - a 25 runner maiden hurdle and a debutant in Super Sonic Boom, from the Willie Mullins stable with ruby on board must command respect ( and a large dose of faith!!!) The place only price is very illiquid indeed

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1pm Hajduk Kula v Partizan Belgrade - 1.23 away - available at the bookies if Betfair too illiquid, 5/5 in head to heads and should be dominant after a 3-1 away win last time out for Partizan.

745pm - Schalke v Valencia - LAYING Schalke/Schalke HALFTIME/FULLTIME at around 5.1 and 5.2 is the equivalent of a 1.24 bet. Slight concern that there is only £37 available to lay at 5.1 and £440 at 5.2

I can't trust a selling hurdle this afternoon at Catterick despite the probability the Bromhead is likely to place. If he doesn't place it will not be so surprising.

The 530 Kempton neesds inspection nearer the off and the 215 Naas needs a large dollop of faith in a 25 runner maiden hurdle.

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