Apologies for lateness of message. Had to run family errands this morning in light of a family illness.
Nice easy win for Zwolle although I was cursing a little as it was not in play so no profits could be locked in at 2-0. I was so pleased that I personally took a risk on Two Kisses yesterday
Two Kisses 1.58 200.00 Back 04-Mar-11 12:53 116.47 Two Kisses 1.03 307.25 Lay 04-Mar-11 14:24 -9.21
Backed at 1.58 and a good 2nd place. I laid off at 1.03 as I could not watch the race.
The football below is in a new format largely to help my trading in looking for stats and sequences, but it is equally valid for unearthing a good bet.
Springfield Raki is in the best probability race of the day. Man City are the best price of the day and are tempting given Wigan have conceded in last 11 matches,.City's record against bottom 4 is good goalswise and Wigan have conceded 3 and 4 regularly against top 5 teams. City have scored 4 and 3 against West Brom and Wolves and I expect Wigan to be similarly punished.
*****ONE A DAY 3pm - MAN CITY V WIGAN - Back Man City in the match odds at 1.4*****
Remember this is a tradable match, unlike Zwolle yesterday, so if City lead you could lock in profit.
I hope I do not rue more obvious choices like Celtic and Barcelona.
1245pm BIRMINGHAM V WEST BROM - 2.46 HOME
First and foremost this is a local(ish) derby .
HEAD TO HEADS - Only 1 head to head of interest 2010 saw a West Brom win 3-1 in September 2010 under a different manager and when West Brom were on a solid run. All change now managerially and Hodgson has a remit which is simple - avoid relegation asap.
LEAGUE POSITIONS - 16th v 17th. What can that tell us? Could be a tight match?Birmingham are 3 points off bottom place and West Brom are 2 points off bottom place.
Be ware of " after the Lord Mayor's show" for Birmingham after their lucky Carling Cup win over Arsenal.
They could perform like Celtic did against Motherwell last week after celtic beat Rangers at home.
BIRMINGHAM RECENT HOME FORM - DWDDLDDWL -only 2 losses at home recently but the problem is clearly in turning draws into wins. 5 of the last 6 home draws have been score draws for Brum.
Against bottom 7 at home, it's 2 wins and 2 draws - so undefeated.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDLDWWL - inconsistent is the word which describes this.
GOAL TRENDS? - only 29% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals Brum concede 1.07 on average at home.
68% of goals scored and 66% of goals conceded come in the 2nd half for Birmingham so a 0-0 at halftime is not necessarily going to be the final score.
STREAKS? - No strong streaks at all for Brum. Last 3 matches have been unders and Birmingham have only scored 1 goal in those 3 matches, signs of potential struggle to score?
For what it's worth, Birmingham have not lost 2 home games on the trot this season ( and they lost their last home match 2-0 to newcastle)
2 out of Birmingham's 3 losses at home have come in their last 5 home matches ( and in 2011)
WEST BROM
RECENT AWAY FORM - only 2 wins away for West Brom came in the heady days prior to 27th November 2010 .Since then it's been LLLLLD - the draw was 1-1 v Stoke City after conceding first.
West Brom have only scored 2 goals in their last 6 away matches.
Against the bottom 9 away , it's 5 losses and a 2-2 draw v West Ham . In 5 of those 6 away matches, West Brom conceded 2 goals or more.
KEY CONCERN - A new managerial change suddenly stopped West Brom conceding 2 for the first time in 5 away matches. We must factor in Roy Hodgson's arrival and quite frankly his attitude will be a million miles from Di Matteo's lovely but ineffectual football.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLWLDLDDD and a considerable change recently. 4 draws in their last 5 matches - is this the Roy Hodgson factor? If so, then it must be noted.All 4 draws were score draws and the loss was inevitable really - 3-0 away to Man City.
GOAL TRENDS? - West Brom have not kept a clean sheet away all season .They have failed to score in 50% of their away matches.
West Brom concede an average of 2.14 goals away and score an average of 1 away per match.
Only 39% of West Brom's goals have been scored away from home.
The opponent scores first in 75% of West Brom's matches - this could be a KEY STAT for back to lay traders .West Brom lead at halftime in only 14.9% of their matches which hints at an early LAY TO BACK TRADE of WEST BROM in the match odds market perhaps.
STREAKS - No win in 6 away matches for West Brom.
3 score draws on the trot and 4 score draws in their last 5 matches .
KEY STAT - West Brom have conceded in each of their last 26 matches and in 27 matches out of 28 this season.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
I would pass this match over if there were stronger matches elsewhere. My concern is that this is a must win for sides 16th and 17th in the league.
We also face the New Manager Syndrome.
What I would note is that West Brom have conceded in all bar 1 of their 28 matches this season. This is a STANDOUT STAT.
1pm - Metalurg D v Dinamo Kiev - 1.34 away
Ukrainian top flight and we only have club friendlies and Europa League to go by as the League returns from its Winter Break. You saw the struggle Shaktar had in scoring - best to wait for some league form in proper competitive matches before getting involved. At first glance though, Dinamo have been scoring of late in their friendlies and Europa League matches.
230pm - Hannover v B Munich - 1.77 away - the title is all but out of reach for Bayern and their season is collapsing with a 1-0 Cup Semi Final loss at home v Schalke. I suppose it is European Football and a believe that Dortmund might slip up which will keep them plugging away.
HEAD TO HEADS - WLWWWW in favour of Bayern here. Last 4 head to heads have been 5-1, 3-0, 7-0, 3-0 with the away matches 0-3, 1-0, 0-3 -2 wins by 3 goals when Bayern Visit Hannover.
LEAGUE POSITIONS - 4th v 3rd so of equal importance to both sides.
A win takes Hannover 2nd so they have something to play for - a Champions League place.
HANNOVER
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLWW -solid -the loss was 1-0 to Schalke who did the same in the Cup to Bayern last time out.
Against the top 4 home and away, hannover have not won, 4-0 home loss to Dortmund, 2-2 home draw v Leverkusen, 2-0 away loss to Leverkusen, and 3-0 loss to Bayern.
Hannover conceded 2 goals minimum against top 4. Only one draw at home has come against 2nd in the league.
HANNOVER'S RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLWDWW -3 wins in their last 4 matches against 12th, 14th and 16th.
GOAL TRENDS
75% of Hannover's home matches have been over 2.5 goals.In 8 of 12 home matches, Hannover have scored 2 or more.
5 of Hannover's last 6 matches have been under 2.5 goals which clashes somewhat with the above stat.
Hannover have failed to score in only 2 of their last 13 matches ( and when they failed to score, they lost 1-0!)
D Konan Ya has scored 9 of his 11 goals at home, so any backers of Hannover would want to see him playing.
STREAKS - No draw in 10 at home as already mentioned. Lay the draw here perhaps?
BAYERN MUNICH
we must put into perspective the mood in the camp. The defeat at home to Dortmund has effectively ended Bayern's title hopes and the home loss in the Cup semi final to Schalke must have hit bayern hard.
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDLWDWLW for Bayern, only 2 losses away in 9 matches is good.
2-0 to Schalke ( not them again!!) and 2-0 away at Koln when Bayern were 2-0 up.
4 of Bayern's last 5 away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWLWWL - no draw in 6 now for Bayern and they cannot seem to put together a 3 match winning streak, coming unstuck after 2 wins on the last 3 occasions.
Away to top 3, they lost to Dortmund and drew with Leverkusen.
GOAL TRENDS - Last 6 matches on the trot over 2.5 goals and 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. 2 of the last 12 matches only have seen a clean sheet in a Bayern game.Those clean sheets were both at home.
bayern have conceded in their last 9 away matches.
Bayern have scored in all of their last 9 matches and they have scored in 14 of last 15 matches.
Bayern have scored a whopping 15 goals in the last quarter of an hour of their matches so make note.
Bayern have conceded only 9 in the first half.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - I am concerned that Bayern may be feeling sorry for themselves, out of the title race and dumped out in the Semi Final of the Cup, both at home.
they have beaten Hannover 3-0 this season. Head to Heads are comprehensively in Bayern's favour. Given Bayern's concession rate away from home, and ability to score in consecutive matches, coupled with Hannover's 75% over 2.5 goals home record, and goals record against top 4, a neutral goals bet could be the call here . 2,.5 goals to trade?
Team news for Bayern would be good here.I love seeing Arjen Robben in the team and Gomez is the top scorer.
3pm - Arsenal v Sunderland - 1.52 home.
Respect for Sunderland that Arsenal are quoted at 1.52. Is this a reaction to Fabregas and van Persie possibly being absent?
HEAD TO HEADS - all 6 head to heads have been under 2.5 goals. 1-1 and 2-0 home win most recently .
Must win for Arsenal , it really is. This is a game in hand and brings Arsenal within 1 point of United.
LEAGUE POSITIONS - 2nd v 8th .
ARSENAL
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLLWWDWWWW - the draw was the infamous 0-0 against Man City. 6 wins in the last 7 . Extremely consistent.
Against top 9 sides at home it's 0-0 Man City, 3-1 win v Chelsea, 2-3 Spurs win , 4-1 won v Bolton,
0-1 loss to Newcastle.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWWWDWW - no defeat in 10 matches for Arsenal .2 of the 3 draws came away and the 3rd draw was the 0-0 v City.
GOAL TRENDS - Arsenal only failed to score in 1 of their last 10 matches( City again!!)
2,2,3,0,3,2,2,1 goals scored by Arsenal at home latest.
Arsenal are on a 4 match winning streak.
Arsenal average 2.14 goals at home and concede 0.85 per match.
van Persie has scored 10 goals in Arsenal's last 8 league matches so his absence will be huge. And you must check team news as a Van Persie less Arsenal , compounded by a possible Fabregas absence may leave this match far more open than the form might suggest.
Arsenal have conceded only 4 goals in the first half hour of their matches this season.They have scored 18.
1-1 with Sunderland this season at Sunderland.
SUNDERLAND
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWLDLWWLL 2 losses against Stoke and Everton does not augur too well for the visit to Arsenal.
Loss to Man Utd, win v Chelsea, Draws v 5th and 6th Spurs and Liverpool indifferent form against top 6 away.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWDWLLLL -4 losses on the trot for Sunderland and they still remain safe in 8th. 3 of the 4 losses were over 2.5 goals and the 2-0 loss to Everton was a successful over 2.5 goal trade given the goal times.
GOAL TRENDS
Sunderland concede 1.5 goals away from home on average which is not the kind of average you want when meeting Arsenal.
Sunderland have not kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches.
Sunderland have failed to score in only 1 of their last 8 , and that was their last match a 2-0 away loss to Everton.
STREAKS - no draw in 5 away for Sunderland.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
This is a must win for Arsenal if they are to have any title hopes after crashing and burning in the Carling Cup Final last week.
I will not make a trading decision until I can decide if Fabregas and Van Persie are playing. Van Persie has scored so many goals recently that his absence might impact negatively on the goals in this match.
The absence of Fabregas will make this even worse for Arsenal.
3pm - Bolton v Aston Villa - 2.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS - 2009 and 2010 head to heads 1-1, 5-1 Villa home win, 0-1 Villa away win, 1-1 Villa home draw.
Now this is one of those matches in which research may be redundant in the light of managerial changes for both sides. Owen Coyle's Bolton plays a lot more differently to the Bolton of yore. Villa seem to be turning a corner under Houllier so their old form may be redundant.
We also have the Bent factor which has really changed the fortunes of Villa from an attacking perspective.
Immediately therefore this is a tough match to weigh up. And the match odds market suggests that the market makers have the same difficulty as me.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 7th
BOLTON
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWDLWW - that's pretty good home form apart from the odds hiccup. The little hiccup came against Man City ( not entirely a shock) and 1-1 v a Wigan side fighting for survival. Bolton did score first in the Wigan match.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLWLWD - inconsistent I think describes this overall form - only 2 wins in their last 9 matches
GOAL TRENDS - Bolton's average goals per match at home was a surprising 1.78 ( nearly 2!) while they concede 1.21 at home per match.
Inconclusive as far as overs is oncerned - 57% of home matches over 2.5 goals. Not a big enough trend to be considered.
Bolton's only losses at home have come against 4th ( Chelsea) and 6th ( Liverpool) and they have coped admirably with the rest with 7 wins and 5 draws. This is reflected by recent home form as well.
STREAKS - no standout streaks for Bolton. Recently ,Bolton have scored in all of their last 4 matches.
Only 3 of Bolton's last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals
Bolton have scored a massive 22 goals in the last half hour of their matches so, as ever, expect goals if tight up to the 60th minute.
Bolton have conceded a massive 13 goals in the last half an hour, and only scored 5 goals in the first half hour of their matches.
70% of goals scored and conceded by Bolton come in the 2nd half. So if a drab first half, prepare for some action if these trends continue.
ASTON VILLA
RECENT AWAY FORM
LLLDDWLD - only one win recently has yet to be addressed by Houllier or Bent! But only one loss in the last 5 away may be a sign that they are making a difference.
The sole loss recently came away to Man utd so no surprise really there.
Villa's problem is that they have no standout double figures goal scorer and no outstanding away goalscorer. Agbonlahor and Bent have been on the scoresheet recently away from home.
Away to the top 10, Villa have not fared well at all. 7 losses and a 3-3 draw against Chelsea. Remember they are playing 7th placed Bolton today.
Against the top 6 , they have conceded 3,4,3,2,3 - our conundrum is determining whether Bolton fall into this category? Instinct tells me - not quite!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDWWLDDW - 2 losses recently an 80th minute Sunderland winner and a loss away to Man Utd. Shoots of recovery definitely, but too many draws still.
GOAL TRENDS - Villa have conceded in every match this season away from home,conceding an average of 2.21 away per match. This is an eyecatching stat. This stat would be more accurate if it was calculated solely on the matches that Houllier has been in charge.
4 of Villa's last 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals - the exception was the blackpool away match which, at 1-1 after 14 minutes, was a guaranteed successful over 2.5 goal trade.
Villa have conceded a massive 16 goals in the last 1/4 hour of their matches this season. Couple this with Bolton's stats in that regard and in play reactive traders get ready to lay the draw if a draw coming to the last 1/4 hour.
Villa have scored in all of their last 7 matches. Villa have conceded in all of their last 5 matches. In fact they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 18 matches - a real STANDOUT STAT.
STREAKS - none to speak for for Villa.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
The standout stat here is that Villa have kept a clean sheet in only one of their last 18 matches. Bolton are on the cusp of the top 7 - Villa have conceded 2 or more against top 6 away from home.
Look out for fireworks in the last half hour if the Scoring Times ( overall) table at www.soccerstats.com is anything to go by. reactive in play traders prepare if it is unders coming to the last half hour.
3pm - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.15 home
We saw with Arsenal, Ajax and Real Madrid this week gone that sub 1.17 could mean comprehensive win with 4+ goals.
If Rangers win their 2 games in hand they would be provisionally top on 27 games played but of course Celtic are playing today. There is nothing at first glance which would make me want to look at a goals bet for this 1.15 shot but the research may change my mind.
HEAD TO HEADS - 4-0, 2-0, 3-1 at home in head to heads in favour of Celtic. Overall, 0-1 away win and 1-1 away draw makes up the last 5 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITIONS
TOP V BOTTOM
CELTIC
RECENT HOME FORM - DDDWWWWW - 5 match winning streak against teams of course above Hamilton in the league.
1,2,1,1,1,4,3 scored at home recently by Celtic. A string of poor goalscoring performances ended with 7 goals in their last 2 home matches against Rangers and Hearts.
Against the bottom 5, 5/5 wins for Celtic scoring 1,2,2,4,3, . Have already beaten Hamilton at home 3-1.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWWWWWL - loss against Motherwell last time showed nothing like the desire of the 3-0 win against Rangers previously.
Celtic must win this match to get back ahead of Rangers,although Rangers do need to win their 2 matches in hand.
GOAL TRENDS - Celtic have scored in all home matches this season and are priced to score an ideal 3 or 4 at home against Hamilton.
64% of their home matches have been over 2.5 goals. 4 of Celtic's last 5 matches have gone over 2.5 goals and the 2-0 loss v Motherwell was an ideal over 2.5 goal trade as the market expected Celtic to score a goal.
Celtic have scored 2.64 goals at home on average and are certainly priced to score again.
3,2,4,4 the total goals v bottom 4 at home.
STREAKS - 9 home matches without defeat - 5 match winning run so far.Only 1 defeat at home for Celtic.
HAMILTON
RECENT FORM AWAY -LLLDLLL - last 2 away losses have been 1-0's.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLLLLDL
GOAL TRENDS - Only 1 of hamilton's last 8 have been over 2.5 goals and that was their last loss.
Only 2 of Hamilton's last 14 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Importantly one was a 4-0 loss against Rangers away.
hamilton have conceded in all of their last 10 matches and have only 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
Only 38% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals for Hamilton but the 4-0 v Rangers stands out.
hamilton have lost 3-1 and 4-0 already away to the Old Firm and are priced to do so again.
STREAKS - Hamilton have not had a win in 17 matches overall and 7 away.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - Hamilton have impressed with the under 2.5 goals trends of late but then we need to really look at the Old Firm and the rest of the league separately. 4-0 and 3-1 away to the Old Firm already is significant and along the lines of the 1.12. Celtic away to Motherwell last time were shocking. Must win for Celtic.
Over 3.5 goals should have a chance of success.
3pm - Fulham v Blackburn- 1.75 home
HEAD TO HEADS - 1-2 loss and 3-0 win at Craven Cottage in 2009 . Head to heads have been shared recently 2-1 Blackburn away win, 3-0 Fulham home win, 2-0 Blackburn home win, 1-1 Blackburn home draw.
Inconclusive head to heads.
Like Villa and Bolton, Blackburn are under new management as are Fulham to some extent, so the new managerial attitude will obviously impact on stats pre new appointment and post new appointment.
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 14th and equal points - no wonder the head to heads point to a tight match .
FULHAM
RECENT HOME FORM - DDLWWWD - only one loss recently and that was 1-3 v West Ham ( local derby syndrome?) Fulham did score first in that one. Recent draw was 0-0 against Chelsea and Dempsey missed a penalty.
So we can say, that's some solid recent home form deserving of the current odds on quote for Fulham.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWDWLWDDD - 3 draws on the trot recently are a return to Hughes at Man City!!
2 of the 3 draws were score draws - 3 of the above 4 draws were score draws. The exception - 0-0 v Chelsea.
The only losses mentioned above in the recent overall form were 1-0 away losses against Liverpool and Spurs - the last loss was care of a Pantsil own goal.
GOAL TRENDS - 43% of home matches over 2.5 goals is inconclusive.
Fulham score 1.21 and concede 1 on average at home. Ideal over 1.5 goal territory.
No defeat in 4 at home. No goal conceded in 4 at home.
Fulham have conceded only 11 in the whole 2nd half this season.
Dempsey likes playing at home. 6 of his 9 league goals this season have been scored at home.
STREAKS? - 4 matches undefeated at home.
6 of the last 7 matches were under 2.5 goals.
Fulham have failed to score in 2 of last 9 matches.
BLACKBURN
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWLLLL - pretty comprehensively Pants away from home. Blackburn have conceded 3,2,4,4 in their last 4 away matches. This new manager is not having a positive impact it would seem.
3pm - Red Bull Salzburg v Mattersburg - 1.31 home
4th v 9th
1-0 Red Bull and 1-0 Mattersburg in the last 2 head to heads is a concern.
1-1, 1-0 loss and 1-0 win for Red Bull in their last 3 on return from a Winter Break do not make them betting propositions for me just yet. A watch only today I feel.
Too many 1-0's associated with red Bull.
445pm - Sion v St Gallen - 1.5 home - St Gallen like conceding.
5th v 10th and no indepth research here as this is a 10 team league.
Since the Feb comeback after the WInter break it's LWLW for Sion, with 2 1-0 away losses and a 1-0 home win.Sion beat Grasshopper 2-0 ( they are 9th and St Gallen 10th)
1-1 draw and 2-0 away win for St Gallen adds to confusion. Winner was scored in the 92nd minute so yet another tight match .
Sion at home have won their last 3 matches. Their last home loss was 2-0 against St gallen funnily enough.
No draw in 11 for Sion.
3 over 2.5 goals in last 4 for St Gallen, admittedly 2 of those matches against top 2 sides.
Inconclusive really this match.St Gallen do concede 2.09 goals on average away from home.
-
530pm - Man City v Wigan - 1.4 home
LEAGUE POSITIONS - 3rd v bottom of the league.
HEAD TO HEADS - 2009 and 2010 3 City wins in 4 matches 1-0 City home win, 1-1 City away draw, 3-0 Man City home win, 0-2 Man City away win.
MAN CITY
RECENT HOME RECORD - DDWLWWWWD - only 1 loss for City recently and that was 1-2 v Everton.
1,1,4,1,4,3 scored at home latest. 3 of the last 4 home matches saw City scoring 3 or more goal against Villa, West brom and Wolves.
Interestingly 2 of those teams are fellow bottom 3 sides so we could expect City to score 3 again minimum.
RECENT RECORD OVERALL - WWDWLDWLD - WLD last 2 sequences is a little inconsistent and putting the title in jeopardy.
GOAL TRENDS - simply 50/50 for City with their over/under 2.5 goals so inconclusive.
3 of City's last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals with the 4th a 1-1 match which would have been a successful trade.
1-0, 4-3, 3-0, 1-1 last 4 home matches for City. The key stat here I think is their scoreline against West Brom (3-0) and Wolves ( 4-3)
Against the bottom 4, home and away, we see the follow scorelines from City 3-0, 2-0, 4-3, 2-1 loss( away to Wolves) , 3-1, and 2-0 away win at Wigan.
STREAKS - 5 matches at home without a defeat.
WIGAN
RECENT FORM AWAY - LLDWDLDD away recently - only one loss in last 6 -the last 3 draws have all been score draws .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDLLDWDL - only 1 win for Wigan was against Blackburn, a 4-3 win.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 of Wigan;s last 6 matches over 2.5 goals with the only 1 not, a 1-1 draw.
Last 11 matches have seen Wigan concede in all of their matches.Only once in their last 15 have Wigan had a clean sheet.
Wigan have failed to score in 2 of their last 8 matches, importantly against Arsenal and Man Utd.
Wigan concede 1.46 away in their matches.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
Is it a coincidence that Man City have played Wolves and West Brom recently and scored 3 and 4 goals, and that the only recent matches Wigan failed to score in were against Arsenal and Man Utd.
Back Man City to score first for a back to lay trade?
With City scoring 4,4,3 in 3 of their last 4 matches, they have proven they can score at home.
Over 2.5 goals perhaps? May rely on Man City rather than Wigan.
7pm - Barcelona v Zaragoza - 1.12 home - another chance to load up on a goals bet? If ever there was a team you could rely on to score a shed load when priced to do so,it must be Barcelona , surely?
HEAD TO HEADS - 5 wins on the trot for Barca in head to heads, scoring 4,2,6,4,2 in those matches. Last home match head to head was 6-1 to barcelona which ties in very nicely with the 1.12 quote about Barcelona. I am not going to do research on Barcelona- goals, goals , long unbeaten sequences etc etc. Better to do some research on Zaragoza to see if there is anything about them which might stop Barcelona scoring a shed load.
ZARAGOZA RECENT AWAY FORM - Zaragoza are 15th in the league.
Only 1 win away from home all season.Quite obviously highly unlikely to add to that tally today.
DDDDLWLD away for Zaragoza relays why they are 15th , too many dropped points.
Zaragoza have only played one of the top 4 away - 1-1 v Valencia.
ZARAGOZA FORM OVERALL - WLWWWDLLDW overall. Bit of a wobble in last 5 matches saw only one win but a great start to 2011.
But , they have not played the top 4 this season.
33% of Zaragoza's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They have kept a clean sheet in only 25% of their away matches.
Only 30% of Zaragoza's goals have been scored away from home, so don't expect them to contribute much to the possible goal tally.
Zaragoza have only scored 3 goals in the first 1/2 hour of all matches this season so expect Barca to get an early goal as Zaragoza have conceded 17 in that first half hour.
STREAKS - none that stand out at all.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS - 1-0 away win for Barca was not unexpected against top 4 valencia side. 16 of Barca's last 18 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 5,3,3,8,5,3,5,5,2,4,4,3,3,3,1,2,3 1 the goals scored by Barca in their recent matches. Slight dip in last 4 scoring 1 twice but those were away matches.
I think I could trust over 3.5 or even over 4.5 / 5.5 goals here to trade. A match like this could be ideal for a 4-0, 5-0, 5-1 scoreline perhaps to trade.
Team news very important. If Messi, for instance , is out, then Barca's attacking is severely blunted.
Watch out for some changes from Guardiola which might temper enthusiasm. He normally makes changes in apparent winnable games.
745pm - Porto v Guimaraes - 1.27 home
HEAD TO HEADS -5,2,3,4,3, scored by Porto in 5 head to heads against this lot - last match was a 1-1 draw at guimareas. Porto scored first. bar that match it has been comprehensively Porto.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 5th so Guimareas must be in the top 5 for some reason.
PORTO
RECENT FORM AT HOME
11/11 so far, perfect home record
RECENT FORM OVERALL - 9 match winning run. 19 wins and 2 draws all season.
of course we now know that one of the draws came against Guimareas - that was way back in October 2010
GOAL TRENDS - Porto have, of course, scored in all of their home matches this season. A clean sheet % of 64% is impressive at home. It tells us that they are likely to score and stay ahead.
Porto have scored in every single match this season.
Porto have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
Porto average 2.90 goals at home with 0.45 conceded per match. Nearly 3 goals scored on average at home! Wow!
Porto score first in 90.5% of their matches. STANDOUT STAT!!!
Porto lead at half time in 80% of matches and opponents lead at half time in just 4.8% of matches.
Hulk has scored 13 of his 19 goals at home and Falcao has scored 7 of his 10 at home. Key Personnel!!!
7/11 home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Only twice have Porto scored less than 2 goals at home.
Porto have scored 5,3,5,3,2,3 against top 10 at home ( guimareas are 5th)
Porto have scored 27 goals and conceded 2 in the first half. They have scored 49 and conceded 7 all season. Amazing stats.
STREAKS - 11 match winning streak at home,. 21 matches without a defeat.
GUIMAREAS
RECENT AWAY FORM
LLWLLWLW - no draw in 9 away matches and 2 draws all season for Porto!!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLLWWDLWL - inconsistent form overall recently.
Against 3 of the top 6 Guimareas have played away , all have been over 2.5 goals ( 3-0 loss to Benfica, 3-2 win over Sporting, 3-1 win over Nacional).
GOAL TRENDS - overs against top 6 away as explained above.
70% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Guimareas have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
They have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their away matches this season.
Guimareas have lost away to all of bottom 7, yet curiously beaten 3 out of 4 of the top 7 they have played away!
Guimareas have only scored 7 goals in the first half all season
STREAKS - 9 away matches without a draw.
MY INITIAL THOUGHTS
Neutral goals bet will assuage doubts about the 1-1 score draw last time. Porto imperious home record, and Guimareas good record against top 7 might signal over 2.5 goals to trade.
Porto should score the first goal if there is to be one in the first half.
500 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Lake Legend, 13/8 Springfield Raki, 33/1 Home She Goes, 33/1 Indian Pipe Dream.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest novice chase in which LAKE LEGEND can give the weight to Springfield Raki.[Adrian Cook]
Novice chase admittedly, but 2 horses stand out for 2 places.
150 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sicilian Secret, 11/4 Rathlin, 8/1 Up Ou That, 10/1 Lismakeery, 20/1 Electric Palm, 20/1 Gerdalia, 25/1 Laragh Lad, 25/1 Midnight Dreamer, 25/1 Mini Budget, 25/1 Star Recruit, 33/1 Title Race, 50/1 Carmun, 50/1 Homme De La Cour, 50/1 Lucky Loch, 50/1 Manucho, 50/1 Oscar Rabbit, 50/1 Thumbs, 66/1 Marks Theatre, 66/1 The Real Macaw, 100/1Billybuster.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The level of form shown by SICILIAN SECRET is more than good enough to win a maiden hurdle of this class and he rates a confident selection. The talented Rathlin has it to prove but looks the main danger. [Justin OHanlon]
Only 2 under 14/1 and ,yes , a maiden hurdle, but it's Mullins/Townend again.
305 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Proud Times, 7/2 Freddie Brown, 7/2 Pokfulham, 9/2 Patterning, 10/1 Battle Honour, 33/1 Udaya Klum, 33/1 Why Are You Asking, 66/1 Thescottishsoldier, 100/1 Hotgrove Boy, 100/1 Isla Patriot, 100/1 Long Range, 100/1 Sixties Rock, 250/1 Arikinui, 250/1 Mini Melody, 250/1 Tommy Gun.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Proud Times turned in a better display of hurdling and showed improved form at Ayr last time and is sure to go close if that is reproduced. However conditions are unlikely to be as testing here and slight preference is for FREDDIE BROWN, who wasn't far behind the aforementioned on his hurdle debut and this bumper winner has the size and scope to do better at this game. [Richard Young]
Only 5 under 33/1 makes this a race of, ideally, 5 for 3 places and Proud Times remains outright favourite.
340 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ballabriggs, 3/1 Skippers Brig, 5/1 Chief Dan George, 10/1 Watch My Back, 100/1 Waterski.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Donald McCain and Trevor Hemmings suffered a reversal in this race two years ago when odds-on Cloudy Lane came to grief at the first fence but it'll be a surprise if lightning strikes twice with their BALLABRIGGS, who is back over fences in his Grand National prep race after impressing in his two starts over hurdles. He is the pick of these weights, open to further progress over fences and is taken to beat Chief Dan George. [Richard Young]
A winner over chase fences and hurdles most recently, if this is his prep race for the Grand National he must be a good consistent jumper this Ballabriggs - take the hint?
145 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Silicium, 5/1 Spirit D´armor, 11/2 Laudatory, 7/1 Somewhatinevitable, 10/1 Akinndi, 14/1 King Supreme, 16/1 Cleaver, 25/1 Smart Catch, 25/1 The Wonga Coup, 100/1 Track Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Laudatory may prove the pick of the Flat recruits but the one to beat is surely SILICIUM who travelled well for a long way before being outstayed at Fakenham first time, and should find conditions more to his liking here.[Frank Carter]
Geraghty/Henderson but always a risk that it is a horse having only 2nd run.
510 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Nomansland, 9/4 Cold Knight, 10/1 Sircharleswatford, 12/1 Go Set Go, 12/1 Tiagra, 14/1 Cape Breton, 16/1 Be My Present, 16/1 Trevis, 20/1 Struanmore, 40/1 Key To Milan, 50/1 My Lucky Lady, 50/1 Robougg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably just an average bumper and it can pay to give another chance to NOMANSLAND who is clearly very well regarded in his top stable. Cold Knight should improve now he encounters better ground and is an obvious danger.[Frank Carter]
Only 2 under 10/1but as a maiden and as a bumper, we need to look at around 5pm to be honest.
410 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Rangitoto, 100/30 State Benefit, 4/1 Double Whammy, 7/1 Russian Song, 15/2 Ravastree, 9/1Camden, 40/1 Keltic Crisis, 50/1 Traffic Chaos.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RANGITOTO has sound prospects after a promising start over hurdles at Ffos Las in January and can capitalise on a handy 7lb concession from State Benefit, who rates the main danger. [Mel Cullinan]
Great to see the Irish master Ruby back in the saddle on a market leader in an 8 runner race for 3 places.
He's evens generally, and 10/11 with Laddies. Punters will probably latch onto Ruby on this one.
2 horses at 100/1 should make this a 6 horse race for 3 places.
520 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Hit The Headlines, 5/1 Broomfield, 7/1 Medinas, 8/1 Hinton Indiana, 12/1 Awaywiththegreys, 16/1The Gurner, 20/1 Global Fella, 40/1 Ammo Away.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIT THE HEADLINES made a strong enough impression when winning his debut to get the vote here despite giving weight all round and facing rivals who have shown plenty of promise in defeat. There are eyecatching newcomers as well, Broomfield probably chief among them.[Richard Austen]
Another race to view nearer the race time but the mover currently is Broomfield for , guess who? Walsh/Nicholls - false price given connections or true reflections of chances. Only 3 under 16/1 in the current market.
SHORTLIST
230pm - Hannover v B Munich - 1.77 away - Both sides have a strong trend towards goals so over 1.5 goals safe at 1.24?
3pm - Arsenal v Sunderland - 1.52 home. -it seems as if Fabregas, Van Persie and Walcott are out - huge misses which is why you are getting 1.52 about the Gunners. Over. 1.5 goals might compensate for lack of total confidence in a straight back of Arsenal - 1.28 fairly generous.
3pm - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.15 home - this week just gone was a wonderful example of how under 1.2 odds usually equates to goals - 3 1.17 shots last week and 5-0, 5-1 and 7-0 scorelines. Historically, Celtic have managed 3 and 4 against Hamilton and that is likely today. 1.17 over 1.5 goals includes both sides. I was absolutely appalled by Celtic against Motherwell last weekend. It was so confusing how they just could not be arsed at all and did not care . A change today now at home?
2.36 over 3.5 goals and 1.53 over 2.5 goals is worth a punt for traders .
530pm - Man City v Wigan - 1.4 home - City should win, but at this time of the year it's backs against the walls for all bottom sides. City should score 2 if their records against bottom 4 are anything to go by. Wigan have conceded in 11 consecutive matches.
Back City and hope they score first?Or the safety of goals - 1.27 over 1.5 goals.
7pm - Barcelona v Zaragoza - 1.12 home - now if there were a team to back up my contention that short odds = goals, it must be Barca? 1.38 over 2.5 goals is quite high for a 1.12 shot. Maybe because only 33% of Zaragoza's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
1.12 should signal a 3-4 goals home victory in the ideal world.1.96 over 3.5 goals and 3.2 over 4.2 goals.
This will be reliant on Barcelona and not especially any goals from Zaragoza.
745pm - Porto v Guimaraes - 1.27 home - 11 /11 at home but a 1-1 draw away at Guimareas - one of only 2 draws all season.
Porto are like benfica - trust the standout stats? Porto should score first ( they have done in 90.5% of their matches this season)
500 DONCASTER - is now a 3 horse race for 2 places. A novice chase, we must hope the 2 principles will complete. If so,they must fill the first 2 places.Springfield Raki at 1.15 is the best priced of the pair to place in a purely probability race that relies on faith in jumping and completing.
305 KELSO - this should be a 5 horse race for 3 places featuring the 5 under 33/1 - Proud Times is 1.18 to place.
340 KELSO - Ballabrigs is a good jumper and 1.28 to place because there are only 2 places. Must complete as ever and, if entered in the Grand National, should do the job here for MCCain Jr and maguire.
410 NEWBURY - the return of Ruby on a market leader Rangitito - 8 runners and 3 places so ideal race to place bet in. Faith in Walsh/Nicholls?1.19 to place.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
230pm - Hannover v B Munich - 1.24 over 1.5 goals, - I can't see this being a 1-0 or 0-0 borefest.Slight problem that Koran is out for Hannover ( scored 9 of his 11 goals at home )
3pm - Celtic v Hamilton - 1.15 home -I cannot read this Celtic side, much like Real Madrid. They will throw in a stinker, both attitude wise and on the pitch, and it's rather like russian roulette trying to figure out in which match they will down tools.
They should score as the odds suggest today , safer is over 1.5 goals at 1.17.
530pm - Man City v Wigan - 1.4 home - a tempting price but a team having to win to stave off relegation could over perform? Over 1.5 goals then at 1.27? City should be able to score and lead at some stage for the back to lay traders.
7pm - Barcelona v Zaragoza - 1.12 home - 1.38 over 2.5 goals is tempting at such odds, but be careful - Guardiolia has a tendency to weaken the team against weaker opponents.
745pm - Porto v Guimaraes - 1.27 home - the winning streak will end soon.1.27 over 1.5 goals , 1.22 ( illiquid NEXT GOAL PORTO) Porto should score first.
500 DONCASTER - pure probability race sees Springfield Raki best priced of the obvious 2 - Clear round will suffice.
410 NEWBURY - 8 runners - 2 over 100/1 leaves 6 runners and 3 places and Ruby on a fav in Rangitito - should have fine place only prospects.
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