England's 2010 performances have been LWWWWDLL - no win in last 3 against Romania , Germany and Italy, and all away from home. Is this the reason for the big quote?
WLLWLLDLL at home for the Danish in 2009 and 2010 is not too hot and a degree of vulnerability there?
7 of their last 9 matches at home have been over 3.5 goals.
They have lost 3-1 in 3 of their last 4 matches at home.
England away have been reasonable up until the last 2 matches WDDLDWDDWDLL -the losses away to Germany and Italy not entirely unexpected.The Italian loss was an 89th minute penalty and England were down to 10 men.
Look at the scorelines for England's last 6 matches away from home - 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-0, 1-0 - tight enough matches away although they are spread through time and the team , at international level especially under 21's , has distinct changes in personnel frequently.
6pm - Netherlands U17 v Austria U17 - 1.37 home - odds "sound" about right here considering the footballing reputation of the nations but trusting spotty adolescents? Hmmm! This is, though, a Euro Qualifier so there is a need here to win, where there isn't with friendlies. The dutch have only drawn 1 of their last 12 matches - can we read anything into this? -they won 8 and lost 3 against Germany, Czechs and Denmark.
WWWDWW last 6 matches for the Dutch and they are in good form coming into this qualifier.
WLWLWWDW at home for the Dutch. 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 matches.
The Austrians have only lost 2 of their last 12, to ireland and Germany.
DDDLWWWWDL only 1 loss in last 5 matches.
7 out of last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
The Austrians look quite good away from home, although I must add that I am not sure how their opponents relate to the strength or otherwise of the Dutch.WDDDDL in 2009 + away matches - all 3 draws were score draws indicating Austria are tough to beat and capable of scoring away from home.
7pm - Germany U20 v Poland U20 - 1.41 - you would expect the Germans to be on top with home advantage, but like the under 17 match above, I know nothing of the under 20 outfit. - this is IN PLAY - and this is a friendly - the market is ridiculously illiquid as I write ( 7am) and may get busier as the day progresses.
One head to head in October 2010 saw Germany win away with a penalty so , although a small sample, will Poland offer enough resistance for traders to get some leverage out of laying Germany at heavy odds on?
Ahhhh - vorsprung durch technik - Germany have won their last 6 and are unbeaten in their last 10, duplicating the efficiency of their first team national side.
last 12 form overall - WLDDWDWWWWWW - superb stuff. Look at the consistency in the German goal scoring too - 3,2,1,2,4,1,4,3,2,1,2,3 - the last time they only scored 1 was away to Poland. Only 1 loss in their last 17 was 3-2 v the Swiss who scored the winner in the 90th minute so Germany can count themselves a tad unlucky there!
Germany are unbeaten in their last 15 at home - last 12 looks like this WWDWDWWDDWWW - on 3 occasions only have they failed to score 2 or more goals.
REcent Polish form - LDLDWDW - inconsistent I think is the best word to describe them.
2 wins in their last 3 is encouraging and featured a 3-2 win over the Swiss when 2-0 down at half time.
That 2-3 is the only piece of recent away form ( prior to this was 2007 and that is irrelevant as by the nature of the under 20's, the team will have changed .
500 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Mr Pernickety, 6/1 Dizzy Rascal, 7/1 Love Milan, 8/1 Fiery Oscar, 8/1 Kings Army, 12/1 Glenbane Gent, 12/1 Our Local Scan, 12/1 Satwa King, 14/1 Oscar Rabbit, 14/1 Rock Of Corran, 14/1 Sweet Spirit, 14/1 Western Island, 16/1 Echo Breeze, 20/1 Hannigans Beau, 20/1 Turtlelass, 25/1 Denver John, 25/1 Doran´s Express, 25/1 Easy Vic.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good run in a maiden at Downpatrick last time suggests that Dizzy Rascal could play a leading part here, but she had previously finished behind MR PERNICKETY over the course and trip, and Ruby Walsh's mount is given slight preference. Fiery Oscar and Love Milan are also worth considering. [Alan Sweetman]
Now Ruby Walsh has only come to Thurles for this single ride. Do we read anything into it? A tasty price and a favourite. Purely speculative upon this being Ruby's only ride. He might be simply doing a favour for a friend in riding. I don't know.
210 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 American Ladie, 11/4 Bow To No One, 9/2 Sara´s Smile, 25/1 Verde Goodwood, 66/1 Rolline, 100/1Fraam Lea.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only the useful Flat recruit Bow To No One and Sara's Smile - apparently exposed and suited by further - would appear to stand in the way of a first hurdling win for AMERICAN LADIE though confidence in the latter is tempered by the fact she has found one or two too good in her last eight starts (Flat and jumps). [Frank Carter]
The live market (10am) replicates the betting forecast which makes this novice hurdle a race of 3 runners and 2 places. American ladie is 4/9 in places and the obvious alternatives are 4/1 Sara and Bow
455 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Oca De Thaix, 11/4 Ultimate Limit, 5/1 Back To Bid, 8/1 Worship The Stars, 10/1 Oopsmylord, 14/1Black Beauty, 20/1 Back Is Back, 33/1 Classic Clover, 50/1 Celestial Dragon, 100/1 Orphelin Collonges.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OCA DE THAIX is the solid one but will have his work cut out if Ultimate Limit returns to form. [Frank Carter]
4 under 10/1 in this hunters chase.Both look solid enough. Ultimate Limit's saddle slipped last time out which might make him value now for those punters who see simply a P in the form without investigating?
220 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ouest Eclair, 7/4 Lady Bluesky, 8/1 Lisbon Lion, 10/1 Lago Verde, 10/1 Twice Lucky, 20/1 Stanley Bridge, 40/1 Whatevertheweather.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The two recent winners are ahead of the handicapper and stand out in a modest affair. Preference is forOUEST ECLAIR (nap) who is unpenalised for his Warwick success, the form of which was boosted when the runner-up scored at Kempton on Tuesday. Lady Bluesky is the other well treated contender.[Steven Boow]
If Spotlight is accurate, then a compelling case can be made for going with ouest Eclair here despite the fact this is a handicap hurdle with only 2 places ( there are currently only 2 horses under 10/1)
"Ouest Eclair : Has looked an improved horse recently, getting off the mark in conditional jockeys´ race at Warwick (good ground) 11 days ago; runner-up boosted the form when winning at Kempton on Tuesday; outstanding chance on paper (escapes a penalty, due to go up 9lb in future) and hard to beat if proving as effective back on easier surface.
250 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Knoxs, 5/2 Sam Lord, 8/1 Si Bien.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Knoxs sets a decent standard and we may not have seen the best of him yet but there is room for improvement in his jumping and he has done most of his racing at further. It's tempting to take him on with SAM LORD who jumped soundly in the main when making a successful chasing debut at Sedgefield and seems likely to get an uncontested lead again.[Steven Boow]
Quite simply 3 horses and 2 places here . Take a chance with great probability - a novice chase though .
610 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Swift Bird, 5/2 Fortunateencounter, 4/1 Greenflash, 9/1 Dubaianswer, 10/1 Kalendar Girl, 18/1 Neat Sweep, 25/1 Mistress Quick, 25/1 Octavo, 33/1 Tinaheely, 40/1 Summerandlightning.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SWIFT BIRD has decent claims on her near-miss over this trip at Lingfield last time and could take some stopping if repeating that form. Fortunateencounter could be a big threat if recapturing her debut form on return from a break, while Richard Hannon's Greenflash is a newcomer to watch closely in the market.[David Moon]
5 under 25/1 in the betting currently but do note the race is not on til 610pm. Maiden fillies too and plenty of newcomers make this less than appealing. REmember Kishanda's race was won by a 33/1 shot.
155 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Killultagh Queen, 4/1 Kilflora, 5/1 Shane Rock, 7/1 Rock The Bock, 8/1 Captain Hastings, 16/1 Harold´s Cross, 20/1 De Bartishell, 20/1 Rio Alto, 20/1 Stanton Court, 25/1 Rubert, 33/1 Hawks Cliff, 33/1 Huntmaster, 50/1 Arctic Grove, 66/1 Lord Only Knows, 66/1 Steady Ed.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KILLULTAGH QUEEN looks the best horse in the race and won't have to improve on her narrow defeat by Montan at Fairyhouse. Kilflora might follow her home, although Shane Rock is an interesting chasing debutant and money for /bRock The Bock/p would be significant. [Justin O'Hanlon]
8/11 - - - - - 6/1 in the betting and a good price gapper for, you guessed it, the Mullins Mafia.
A beginners chase so the L plates still on the behinds of a few of these.
Head 2nd on her 2nd chase start last time out and unseated rider before.
325 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Popcorn, 13/2 Academy Rose, 7/1 Funatfuntasia, 10/1 Bay Swallow, 12/1 About The House, 14/1Alajan, 14/1 King Lir, 16/1 Kilmagner, 16/1 Lord Accord, 20/1 Ms Cabrita, 25/1 Hudder Ghan, 25/1 Jackstalkin, 25/1 She´s Our Luck, 33/1 Flemen Times Ahead, 50/1 Benalicious, 50/1 Blue Vic, 50/1 Silver Chief, 50/1 Twentyeleven.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks fairly straightforward for POPCORN who could be given most to do by multiple Flat winnerFunatfuntasia and Academy Rose, who seems much better over hurdles than in bumpers. [Alan Sweetman]
Mullins Mafia again on Popcorn, with a string of placed efforts to his name.Last 2 races were maiden hurdles in soft/heavy ground 8/13 - - - - 7/1 in the live betting indicates that Popcorn should handle this good to yielding ground today.
SHORTLIST
6pm - Netherlands U17 v Austria U17 - 1.37 home - this is a Euro qualifier so does actually mean something. Given the Austrian propensity to draw, perhaps over 1.5 goals may be a valid option here( they tend to score draw) - pathetically illiquid market means this is likely to be shelved.
7pm - Germany U20 v Poland U20 - 1.41 - illiquid market again and a friendly so a question of motivation. Score loads v don't concede many. A tough match to predict although should replicate the tight away match at Poland where germany won 1-0.
210 CHEPSTOW - American ladie is 1.13 to place in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places. A clear round will suffice. Back in a mares only race here and that could be the telling factor for thornton/King.
Consistently at the business end- we cannot afford a near 3rd placed today with only 2 places.
220 CARLISLE - interest piqued by the confident argument given by Spotlight here for Ouest Eclair - if accurate then 1.3 to place is a great price albeit with only 2 places
250 CARLISLE - hit and hope - 3 horses - 2 places - great probability race
155 THURLES Killultagh Queen has only had one beginners chase run and went down a head 2nd in that for formidable stable. 1.22 to place and the only horse under evens in the place market. 15 runners and all beginner chasers make for a slightly risky race as does backing only a 1 time out chaser.
325 THURLES - Popcorn is a stingy 1.11 to place which makes the win only market of some small appeal. Take Betfair SP I would suggest here for a horse consistently placed.
210 CHEPSTOW - American ladie - a clear round and should be 3 horses for 2 places which makes this appealing.
325 THURLES - Popcorn looks ideal for a place here with a clear round of hurdles jumping. 2nd in 22 runner and 25 runner fields, this 18 runner field should hold no concerns.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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