28/3

Spain's nippers look too good in this Euro Qualifier. I hope I have made the right choice in a day where there are very obvious alternatives.

***** ONE A DAY4pm - Spain U17 v N Ireland U17 - back Spain in the match odds at 1.20 or thereabouts.*****

Alas I forgot how poor Scotland were, so missed out on the bigger price for Brazil. Flinty Bay won and was the right choice as Vivaldi finished what would have been a frustrating 4th and out of the places.

Nice to see Mesariya win at 6/1 after I noticed some early support for the horse at leopardstown. Dunboyne Express's race was great probability race if you had the TV on as near market rival was withdrawn reducing the field to 3 runners and 2 places. Watch out for these races - the probability of you picking a winner is greater than you not.

4pm - Spain U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.21 home - looks like an easy match to solve on paper doesn't it? but I have learned not to be so complacent.

This is a qualifier and Futbol24 have Spain away from home while betfair have Spain at home. Of course it is important which is the home team and which not. from Sporting Bet's website it would seem that this venue is a neutral venue.

The teams last met in Northern Ireland March 2010 which was a 4-0 Spanish Win.

Spain have only lost 2 of their last 12 matches, against Belgium ( 1-0) and England (2-1) and have won the other 10.

In Spain's winning matches only, they have scored 2,2,4,2,3,4,3,2,4,3 which ties in nicely with the 2010 head to head.

NI have only won 4 of their last 12, the last 2 v Bulgaria and Azerbaijan.

Last 2 matches have seen 2 losses to Portugal (3-1) and England (3-2) but on closer inspection the England match was not as tight as the scoreline suggests. NI were 3-1 down at one stage and it was only 3-2 care of a late penalty.

There is no real point looking at respective home and away form if this match is at a neutral venue.

9 of Spain's last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals , the only one not over 2.5 goals was a 2-0 match.

6 of NI's last 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals, the exceptions a 0-0, and 2 2-0 matches whose goals indicate that we would have had a successful over 2.5 goals trade.

Limited form to go on and a neutral venue but this crop of Spanish nippers looks rock solid and we should expect a 2,3 goal win minimum.

730pm Spain U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.22 home. Looks like another win for the Spanish nation tonight?

Looks like the Spanish may be playing the Belarussian under 23 side. This is also a friendly so we do not have a need to win for either side.

WWWLWDWWWWWL - more likely to win than lose. Not much to go on as I cannot find any form for the Belarus team.

745pm - England U21 v Iceland U21 - the 3 Cubs were mighty impressive against the danish and surprised the bookies who priced them up at over evens and they blew the Danish apart 4-0 away from home last time out.

1.41 now and a massive difference. This weekend has been international break weekend so we should expect a first team here as players are available.

Iceland like goals. 11 of their last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals and the exception was a 2-0 loss.

LLWWWWDWLWWL last 12 games for Iceland may look impressive but remember a lot of these games feature teams they played twice.

4 wins were against San Marino ( twice) and Northern Ireland ( twice) for instance.

2 most recent wins were both 2-1 against Scotland. Interestingly, Iceland drew 2-2 and won 4-1 against Germany ( were Germany already qualified I ask myself and did they field a weakened side 2nd time around?)

England's 4-0 recent win fresh in the memory.

WWDLWWWWDLLW - 2 losses saw England down to 10 men on both occasions, in friendlies, and both matches saw penalties for the opposition, the loss v Italy an 89th minute penalty.

Only 3 draws in 24 matches ( 12 each) for England and Iceland may be an angle here - laying the draw?)

England have not had a draw at home in their last 11 matches, and Iceland have drawn only 2 away in their last 12.

10 of Iceland's 12 away matches have been over 2.5 goals and 8 of England's 12 matches at home have been overs ( 2-0 vCzechs saw a missed penalty, 2-0 loss to France saw 2 goals before halftime so a successful over 2.5 goals trade, 1-0 v Portugal was not a successful trade, and 2 late 2nd half goals v Uzbekistan may have been a successful over 2.5 goals trade)

Quite obviously the safety net of over 1.5 goals here stands out, albeit this is a friendly.

Iceland's wins away have come against relatively weak countries in Scotland, Northern Ireland, San Marino and Belgium.

745pm - Oldham v Tranmere - 2.22 home

OLDHAM V TRANMERE

HEAD TO HEADS - inconclusive but both teams seem to come away with something when visiting the other team.

Oldham have won last 2 head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION – 15^th v 19^th

OLDHAM RECENT HOME FORM – LWLWWDLLLL – UNBEATEN AGAINST BOTTOM 6 WITH 2 WINS AND 2 SCORE DRAWS

OLDHAM RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDLLDLLLLLL – NO WIN IN 11 OVERALL

OLDHAM GOAL TRENDS – 53% OVER 2.5 AT HOME

LAST 3 MATCHES UNDER 2.5 GOALS, IN FACT UNDER 1.5 GOALS. LAST 3 MATCHES HAVE SEEN 1-0 LOSING SCORELINES, ALL 2^ND HALF GOALS.

NO CLEAN SHEET IN 6 MATCHES.

OLDHAM HAVE FAILED TO SCORE IN 9 OF THEIR LAST 10 MATCHES.

OLDHAM HAVE CONCEDED 30 GOALS IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OF THEIR MATCHES.

OLDHAM CONCEDE 70% OF THEIR GOALS IN THE 2^ND HALF.

TAYLOR AND TOUNKARE AT HOME WOULD LIKE TO SEE.

OLDHAM STREAKS – 3 1-0 LOSSES ON THE TROT.

LOST LAST 4 AT HOME, 6 IN ALL

NO WIN IN 5 AT HOME, 11 IN ALL

NO DRAW IN 4 AT HOME, 6 IN ALL

NO GOAL SCORED IN 3. FAILED TO SCORE IN 9 OF THEIR LAST 10 MATCHES.

TRANMERE RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWLLDDL

LOST 9 AND DRAWN 3 AGAINST TOP 17 SIDES AWAY FROM HOME.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDWWLLLDDLLW

Goal trends – 44% OF AWAY OVER 2.5 GOALS

CONCEDE 1.5 ON AVERAGE AWAY FROM HOME

FAILED TO SCORE IN 1/3RD OF AWAY MATCHES

LAST 6 MATCHES UNDER 2.5 GOALS

ONLY 1 CLEANSHEET IN LAST 8 MATCHES

FAILED TO SCORE IN 2 OF LAST 3.

TRANMERE CONCEDE 20 IN LAST ½ HOUR AND SCORE 13 IN LAST 15 MINUTES

LAST 4 AWAYS COULD HAVE BEEN 1-1 SCORELINES BUT LOST ONE MATCH TO AN OWN GOAL AND THE OTHER TO A 90^TH MINUTE GOAL. COULD CONCEIVEABLY HAVE BEEN 4 1-1 DRAWS AWAY

SHOWUMNI SCORES PLENTY AWAY.

Streaks – NO WIN IN 5

1-1? UNDERS? UNDER 3.5 GOALS

310 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Sircozy, 9/2 Blazing Bolte, 6/1 Tinabianca.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Blazing Bolte and Tinabianca may well be capable of winning races in the fairly near future butSIRCOZY sets them a decent standard and should be too good.[Chris Wilson]

3 horses and 2 places and the diminutive French leader should oblige.

Blazing Bolte the obvious value alternative?

330 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Araldur, 7/2 Break The Chain, 8/1 Stapleton, 12/1 Lombardy Boy, 20/1 Overlay, 25/1 Mutanaker, 33/1 Patrick´s Secret, 66/1 Rockoboy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARALDUR, successful in Grade 2 company over fences a couple of seasons back, opened his account over hurdles at Kempton early this month and can defy a penalty in what looks a weaker race. Break The Chain, who is 1-1 on good ground, may benefit from the return to a sound surface but officially has 20lb to find with the selection.[Steven Boow]

1/3 now and one of only 2 under 14/1 - again the 2nd horse, Break the Chain is the value alternative.

8 runners and 3 places make this an ideal place only race.

220 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Benandonner, 5/2 Unlimited, 7/2 Alpha Tauri, 14/1 Tourist.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The top weight BENANDONNER is the one to beat on these terms following his creditable fourth in the Lincoln Trial here last time, but Unlimited and Alpha Tauri both recorded a career best when winning sellers by a wide margin last time so this may not be as cut and dried as BHA marks suggest.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 20/1 for 2 places

250 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 1/14 Wiqaaya, 14/1 Brent Pelham, 33/1 Hesindamood, 50/1 Chillianwallah, 50/1 Lady Freda.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks an easy opportunity for WIQAAYA to get off the mark.[Adrian Cook]

Brent Pelham a good each way alternative to the obvious market leader?

450 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Joe Le Taxi, 3/1 Tom Sawyer, 4/1 Saucy Buck.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive JOE LE TAXI should be able to make it four out of five in 6f handicaps this year.[Adrian Cook]

3 horses and 2 places and a Johnston favourite makes joe of some appeal here in a great probability race.

SHORTLIST

4pm - Spain U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.21 home - it looks, if the form is accurate, like a comfortable win for Spain. Slight niggles? Being played in a neutral venue so no home advantage.

1.15 over 1.5 - goals as these 2 love goal laden matches. Over 2.5 goals too as a trade perhaps at 1.49.

2-0, 3-1 , 3-0, possible scorelines?

This is NOT a friendly so obvious motivation.

730pm Spain U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.22 home - this is a friendly so beware! No form can be found for Belarus - is this a newcoming nation to international football? If so , then they are layable on that alone?

745pm - England U21 v Iceland U21 - a friendly so be very careful and don't go moaning if the bet you expected to come in didn't! Note too that Stuart Pearce has let Henderson, Muamba, Smalling and Richards go back to their clubs early

Looks to be goals in both sides 1.22 over 1.5 goals is enticing given the over 2.5 goals record of these 2 teams.

745pm - Oldham v Tranmere - 2.22 home - it all points to goals being as sparce as a good song in the Eurovision. 1.28 under 3.5 goals? note the £2000+ waiting to back 0-0 in the correct score market.

310 PLUMPTON - either take the 1.3 about Sir Cozy or do not. 1.08 to place is reasonable. Blazing Bolte 1.3 to place in a 3 horse race for 2 places.

330 TOWCESTER - Araldur was a one a dayer previously I think but is 1.08 to place here . Break the chain may be the value in this 8 runner race for 3 places where only 2 are under 16/1 and only 4 under 40/1 suggesting he has a great probability of finishing in the first 3 with clear round of jumping at a good price. Break the chain seemed to have emptied out last 2 races over this distance but in good to soft ground. Slight concern therefore with the hill at Towcester emptying his gastank? good ground may be the positive with Break the Chain though?

250 WOLVES - 1.11 win and 1.06 place for Wiqaaya.

450 WOLVES - Joe Le Taxi is 1.18 to place in a great probability race ( 3 horses and 2 places ) and for a master on the all weather Mark Johnston.

TENNIS

Go to the Tennis in play coupon - I will not be listing the tournament just the match and projected time

515pm - Wozniacki v Petkovic - 1.18 home - my new love interest Woz should do the biz here.

7pm - Federer v Monaco - 1.06 home usually indicates a sets to love win. 1.25 for 2-0 for Fed.

Only 1 head to head 2007 WLW in sets to Fed on clay

815pm - Nadal v Lopez - 1.06 and 1.27 2-0 in sets - 1st v 41st in the rankings.

1130pm - Dolgopolov v Tsonga - 1.69 - I spoke of Dolg a year or 2 ago as one to follow, now alas the cat may be clawing his way out of the bag

after Aussie open. This is likely to be a great match to trade as it could go either way.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

4pm - Spain U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.21 home - looks one of the safer bets of the day.

745pm - Oldham v Tranmere - 2.22 home - 1.28 under 3.5 goals but trading advised here particularly given these 2's records in the last half hour of matches.

330 TOWCESTER - BReak the Chain could be a good value placer here at 1.31 to place. Slight concern with " emptying out" at the business end and Towcester has a famous hill!! But in a race where 4 are under 40/1 only, we can argue for probability here?

450 WOLVES - pure probability that Joe le Taxi , at 1.18 to place , will place in a race where there are 3 runners and 2 places -niggle? handicap and all 3 should pass the line together so not entirely inconceivable that this could be a tight finish.

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