back-lay-trade-horses-football: 15/3

It's all about the final decision now. The betting devils are tempting some juicy odds infront of my face - 1.9 for Hurricane Fly to place ( but look at the irresistible opposition!) 3.05 to lay Bayer/Bayern halftime/fulltime at 3.05 is a 1.47 bet - this really is enticing.
Quevega is 1.32 to place - negatives - no prep race since April 2010 and on a hatrick - this will be more difficult to achieve. Only 2 under 10/1 and we have the safety net of the 3 places.
Elsewhere United to qualify at 1.38 will conver all eventualities, even the lottery of possible penalties. 1.9 under 2.5 goals ( trading only) and the relatively safer 1.32 under 3.5 goals ( this will be threatened by a Marseille goal.)
The wholseale dismissal of Inter this evening is a mystery to me. Laying Bayern/bayern HT/FT is very interesting as is backing Bayern, clean sheet NO at 1.5 -great odds for effectively backing Inter ( a team needing a goal as Bayern will go through with a 0-0) .

as you can see this is one of those days where you make a selection, watch all of the others win, and yours go pearshaped.

*****ONE A DAY -745pm - MAN UTD TO QUALIFY - 1.39 ****** This covers the eventuality of a no scre draw after 90 minutes. Faith in United going through as their home form is excellent. One Marseille goal and United are in trouble. I expect United to get the goal they need but hope for qualification eventually tonight.

SPECULATIVE BET - 320 CHELTENHAM - HURRICANE FLY TO PLACE in an ultra competitive race - 1.9 is very enticing.
Elsewhere I would consider watching the bayern match and getting involved if the absence of Lucio for Inter does not hinder them as a defensive unit.

I thought this was ending a 0-0 as Lieiria are as defensive as they come, but Porto produced the goods yet again with 2-0 and a late penalty sealing it. Later bettors would have got a nice 1.51 at the off. Traders would have got a 1.33 equivalent bet after Porto scored their first goal.
Anyone speculating on the correct score would have enjoyed the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines.

230pm - Zilina v MFK Kosice - 1.26 home - in play - Slovakian top flight - it was in play so worth a look. Limited stats with such a league.
Last 3 League matches in 2009 and 2010 saw 4-1, 4-0, 4-0 all in favour of Zilina which makes me think , then, that the 1.26 is a good price if the head to head scorelines are consistent.
Only 3 league matches have been played so far so there is no real solid competitive form to go on ( there are friendlies).
LDD for Zilina so far .DWL for Kosice - 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 scorelines. Unlikely to be as tight away to zilina given the head to heads?
Zilina are 2nd, Kosice are 2nd from bottom and this is the return after the Winter break.
Any bet would be based on head to heads I suspect rather than any recent form. On its side is the consistency of the scorelines in the last 3 matches.

430pm - Slovan Bratislava v Dunajska Streda - 1.38 home - in play - another Slovakian match and it's WWDWWW for Slovan Bratislava in head to heads. WWD for Slovan since the Winter Break sees scorelines of 3-1, 4-0, 1-1 , the 1-1 draw was away to bottom side. Cause for concern?
4th v 7th today.
WLD for Dunajska in their 3 after the Winter Break sees an impressive 2-2 draw against Zilina, top team in the league.
Again, not much to go in and we cannot really delve deep because there are only 3 recent league matches to go on .

5pm - Videoton v Honved - 1.37 home - in play - Hungarian Cup match - these are 2 Division 1 sides and as you know I prefer to see gulfs in league when there's a Cup match.
These 2 have drawn 3 times in the last 4 matches , twice in Cup matches. The bookies expect home advantage to tell for Videoton.
Videoton are unbeaten in 9 WWDDDWWDW.
Honved are a bit mixed - LWWWWWLWLLDD

Not much else to go on really.

730pm - Stirling v Dunfermline - 1.48 away - Scottish Division 1 match, not in play.Dunfermline have won the last 6 head to heads and that is always a good sign for me. Stirling have not won in their last 11 matches.LLLLDLLDLDL - 2 draws in last 2 matches signs of recovery?
Last win at home 23rd October 2010 and since then it's been LLLLLDL - the last 4 home matches have seen 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 scorelines then Stirling were 3-0 up against Cowdenbeath and lost 4-3 somehow.
So, again, there are signs that Stirling could click.
3 losses in last 12 for Dunfermline -1 was in the Cup.
Bottom v 3rd in the league.
After a barren spell of 7 without a win away, Dunfermline are suddenly coming good with 4-0 away at Cowdenbeath, 0-0 away at Ross County, 3-1 away at Queen of the South, and a 2-1 win away at Falkirk.
Ideal away form to meet bottom side who have lost 5 and drawn 1 of last 6 home matches.

745pm - B Munich v Inter - 1.85 home - in play - you know the drill by now with the Champions League. Our job is to determine the minimum scorelines for each team which will ensure their progression. 0-0 in the first leg until a 90th minute away goal from Gomez put things firmly in Bayern's favour as they love playing at home.
Bayern now need a 0-0 minimum to go through and in the league , a 0-0 at home for Bayern is as rare as a truthful word from a politician.
Inter need a 1-0 to equalise the tie, and a 2-0 to go through as the less complicated scoreline for them this evening.
As an Italian side they should be adept at the defending.
Can bayern do what Spurs did and get the 0-0 to go through? After all it seems the logical tactic given the fact that if Inter do score, the tie will be only level.
Again, I cannot really see any point in doing a league form analysis as this is the 2nd leg of a tie where the away goal is crucial.
Immediately, given Inter need a goal and BAyern do not, a logical argument can be made for laying Bayern?
Although they will not want another nightmare result after recently being put out of the Cup Final and Bundesliga title race in the matter of 2 matches.

745pm - Crawley Town v Hayes and Yeading - 1.26 home - in play - Crawley have won 1-0 and 3-0 in 2010 head to heads , as this is in play. I know little to nothing about the conference and am always squeamish about betting and trading in such matches.
Crawley's only loss in their last 12 was a 1-0 to Man Utd.
They have won 4 of their last 5, 3 of them at home.
8 home wins on the trot is very Man Utd-like, scoring 3,2,2,3,3,1,3,5. Only one anomolous match saw them score less than 2.
Hayes have won 3 of their last 12, 2 of those were 1-0 away wins.
LLWLDW last 6 away matches - some signs of recovery?
Top v 4th from bottom. Crawley have only lost 3 all season. Crawley at home have won 13, drawn 1 and lost 2.
Hayes have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 11 away from home.
11 home matches without loss for Crawley, 8 home match winning sequence makes them rightful favourites.
My lack of knowledge of Conference football is a big concern.

745pm - Man Utd v Marseille - 1.56 home - in play - 0-0 from the first leg and advantage Marseille as we head into tonight's 2nd leg.Minimum scoreline is 1-0 for both sides to go through, although a 1-0 to Marseille will be far more devastating as it will require 2 goals for United to go through within the 90 minutes.
13 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats at home in the Champions League since 1999 shows United know how to play these matches.
It all hints at a tight encounter, at least for the trader up until around 30 minutes for under 2.5 goals backers?
I suspect United will prevail and the 1.56 is enticing but if you enter the market in play if it is still 0-0 after 20 minutes, you will get better odds.

Cheltenham Festival of course today and that doesn't necessarily mean a strong bet as it is the cream of the crop.

130 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cue Card, 9/2 Spirit Son, 8/1 Recession Proof, 8/1 Sprinter Sacre, 9/1 Al Ferof, 10/1 Zaidpour, 14/1 Magen´s Star, 16/1 Hidden Universe, 18/1 Dunraven Storm, 20/1 Gibb River, 20/1 Marsh Warbler, 50/1 Rathlin, 100/1 Far Away So Close, 100/1 Spanish Treasure, 200/1 Sheer Genius.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of virtual unknown quantities, notably the Nicky Henderson-trained trio, prevent CUE CARD from being rated banker material but he is very well suited by the course, was out of the top drawer in bumpers and the form which saw him finish second to Menorah here in December would have been good enough to win most of the recent runnings of this race. Spirit Son is the choice of Barry Geraghty and can prove the pick of the Henderson runners, with Dunraven Storm possibly the best outsider.[Frank Carter]

First fav on Day 1 is Cue Card who may be a false price simply because he is the first favourite of the Festival. 5/2 currently and , as with all place only markets during the Festival, we will see decent place only prices because of the interent competitiveness of the races.

A 94 day course and distance winner is encouraging as Cheltenham can take a lot of getting. Will he bookies get a pummelling in the first race? As you read in What Really Wins Money, each way betting is perfect for the Festival.

205 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Medermit, 7/2 Finian´s Rainbow, 7/2 Ghizao, 7/1 Captain Chris, 8/1 Realt Dubh, 12/1 Rock Noir, 14/1 Dan Breen, 25/1 Giorgio Quercus, 40/1 Stagecoach Pearl, 40/1 West With The Wind.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ghizao impressed with his two wins late last year and Realt Dubh looks a solid Irish challenger but MEDERMIT has looked increasingly persuasive over fences and can emerge on top. There was not much between him and Captain Chris over 2m4f at Sandown but he looked clearly the more likely candidate for this race. Finian's Rainbow looks the other leading player.[Richard Austen]

Another very difficult race but can we discount those 12/1 and over from calculations? If so, this leaves 5 horses for 3 places.

320 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Menorah, 7/2 Hurricane Fly, 4/1 Peddlers Cross, 15/2 Oscar Whisky, 9/1 Dunguib, 14/1 Khyber Kim, 14/1 Mille Chief, 20/1 Thousand Stars, 40/1 Overturn, 50/1 Clerk´s Choice, 200/1 Bygones Of Brid.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MENORAH may well be the answer, having major form claims on his two wins here late last year and with the profile - still lightly raced and was progressing when last seen - to improve again. Hurricane Fly has assembled a formidable record in Ireland and may be next best, ahead of a couple of young up-and-comers with more probably still to give in Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief. [Mel Cullinan]

It is testament to the quality of the field that winning machine ( In Ireland) Dunguib is only 8/1 5th favourite! Hurricane Fly interests me for Mullins and Ruby Walsh ( winningmost jockey at the FEstival last year)

400 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Garde Champetre, 6/1 Maljimar, 13/2 L´ami, 15/2 Sizing Australia, 9/1 Poker De Sivola, 10/1 A New Story, 10/1 King Johns Castle, 14/1 Gullible Gordon, 14/1 Quolibet, 16/1 Another Jewel, 16/1 One Cool Cookie, 20/1 Freneys Well, 20/1 Lord Nellerie, 20/1 Oscar Bay, 20/1 Quezac De La Roque, 33/1 Dream Alliance.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Things did not work out for Garde Champetre in his hat-trick bid here a year ago and he has not quite hit the high spots this time around so, although dropped 4lb, he could be anchored by his big weight again. He faces a particularly tough task against bottom-weight MALJIMAR (nap) on their running here in December 2009, allowing 8lb for 3 lengths, and the latter is expected to prove hard to beat.[Frank Carter]

Normally the words Cross Country and Edna Bolger are inextricably linked and seeing Garde Champetre at such a big price relays that something may be amiss with this Cross Country specialist or this is the value bet of the century!

Normally I woule be looking at the shortest priced Bolger horses and they are GArde Champetre and L'ami. With 4 places on offer, they may be worth a bet given these horses are most likely to be taking the jockeys round this course as they are so familiar with it!

440 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Quevega, 7/2 Sparky May, 9/1 L´accordioniste, 16/1 Banjaxed Girl, 20/1 La Vecchia Scuola, 33/1 Alasi, 33/1 Alegralil, 33/1 Santera, 33/1 Silver Gypsy, 33/1 Stephanie Kate, 50/1 Lonesome Dove, 50/1 Ocean Transit, 100/1 Miss Overdrive, 100/1 Princess Rainbow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUEVEGA has won this for the last two years, including back from ten months off last year. She is a class apart and though the odds are skinny, she is likely to be very hard to beat. Highly progressive novice Sparky May is next best, with La Vecchia Scuola best of those at bigger prices and taken to claim third. [Mel Cullinan]

The Irish banker for DAy 1 you would suspect from the Mullins/Walsh camp, and should place with ease with a clear round.

Only 1 of 2 under 10/1 and Sparky May the obvious each way alternative .

145 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Streamtown, 7/2 Glaced Over, 13/2 Politelysed, 8/1 Lady Ida, 14/1 Cherry Cake, 14/1 Floraclock, 20/1 Alfie´s Pearl, 33/1 Frosty Spring, 40/1 Little Fifi, 66/1 Last Chorus, 66/1 Shoal Bay Dreamer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Glaced Over looked likely to spring a 50-1 surprise when unseating her rider at the last flight here in September and looks a major player on that form but she's unproven on forecast soft ground and consistency hasn't been her strong suit. Preference is for Irish raider STREAMTOWN.[Steven Boow]

1/2 - - - - 7/1 price gapper in the live betting market must be accounted for. It may not be Cheltenham but I don't care where a winning bet comes from!!

Small fields at Southwell preclude me from any interest there.

TENNIS

BNP PARIBAS MENS

6pm ( times change based on length of prior matches) Gulbis v Djokovic - 1.11 Djokovic. Either straight back of Djokovic or the more adventurous 2-0 set betting at 1.37.

915pm - Chela v Federer - 1.04 Fed - obvious to increase the odds with a set betting 2-0 bet here at around 1.2 ( should be bigger as the lay price is 1.27)

1030am - Wozniacki v Kleybanova - 1.19 - Lovely Caroline is usually a reliable betting medium.

SHORTLIST

230pm - Zilina v MFK Kosice - 1.26 home - I have said it before that there is a greater likelihood of a surprise if teams are coming back from Winter Breaks. What may sway me here is Zilina's ability to score 4 against kosice in the last 3 head to heads - surely no coincidence?