10/3

A tough evening in store for us football wise and horse racing wise. The 630 Kempton sees Midnight Rider as a standout bet of the day for me, but as with maidens , we need to view the market nearer the off.

Elsewhere I keep getting drawn to Porto this evening ( and a need to cover the draw means laying CSKA) - they have the winning mentality and only aberrations this term have been in matches where they did not need to win ( 2nd legs of Europa league matches having wrapped it up first leg, or domestic cup matches).

Hamilton have not won in 18 matches and Dundee United at 1.66 is of some appeal, but I would want to cover the draw. Under 3.5 goals appeals as Hamilton have only had one of their last 9 matches over 2.5 goals.

I cannot see Benfica losing a 2nd consecutive match given they have just had an 18 match winning sequence ending.

*****ONE A DAY - 6pm - CSKA Moscow v Porto - LAY CSKA MOSCOW IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 3.15. USE YOUR STAKE AS FIXED LIABILITY. EG IF YOUR STAKE IS £100 TO BACK NORMALLY, THEN LAY CSKA TO LOSE £100 USING BETFAIR'S FIXED LIABILITY FUNCTION

Here is a link to download word doc showing the process - probably not available via the email alert so go to the blog

www.cliveoneaday.com password stable634

Please note that this is tradable if Porto scores first. The odds for CSKA will rise dramatically allowing you to neutralise your liability and get your stake back.

It could all go wrong in what is a one off match of course and it is only the first leg of a 2 legged affair. I just hope it is a draw or Porto score as they have the attacking talent.

It's pre Cheltenham dodge pots and tough European football at the moment, and thankfully Partizan Belgrade made it 6/6 in head to heads against their opponents with a nice 4-0 away win to keep things ticking over.

1130am -Palestine (W) v Bahrain (W) - 1.2 away - now this is an illiquid market, in play, and the odds at www.bet365.com are 1.062. If bet365 are nearer the mark, we are getting extremely good value for the Bahrain Women.

1130am - Tampines Rovers v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.15 home - these 2 last met in the Singapore League in 2004 so the head to heads pretty redundant, suffice to say Tampines won 3-0, 9-0, 3-0 in 3 consecutive meetings.

Only 1 loss for Tampines was against the might of Bangkok Glass , who put a sheet of glass in goal, and the ball kept bouncing off it.

10 wins and a draw in the other 11 matches for Tampines.

tanjong''s form goes from 2004 to 2011 ( only 3 matches in 2011) 5-0 loss, 2-1 loss, and 0-0 draw with Woodlands Wellington who lost to Singapore Armed forces 5-0 recently.

A limited league so far of only 3 matches but Tampines are 3rd and Tanjong2nd bottom.

6pm - Braga v Liverpool - 2.64 away - again these Europa League matches are difficult to research and get an angle into.

No Suarez or Gerrard for this first leg, and Liverpool will be seeking an away goal and a 1-0 hopefully to take to Anfield, ensuring a 1-0 at Anfield is enough to see them through.

Braga ended Benfica's 18 match winning sequence at the weekend ( with a little help from a red card) and that will tell you where they are. Braga have beaten Arsenal, Celtic, Seville in Europe so are no slouches.

But the unique make up of these matches make them so hard for me to read.

6pm - CSKA Moscow v Porto - 2.66 away - I like Porto and in Hulk and Falcao they have a great attacking threat.

CSKA have been kept ticking along in their domestic Winter Break with Cup matches and club friendlies. While Porto have been a winning machine WWWWDL ( both in cup matches)WWWL( to Sevilla 1-0 but 2nd leg of Europa League and they went through on away goals) WW

When Porto don't need to win, they rarely do. When they do need to win, they deliver! I would prefer them at 2.66 to open the scoring to trade today. I may consider laying CSKA Moscow at 3.15 for a lay to back trade .

Again it is difficult to weigh up statistically through research so this would be based on personal opinion and a hope that Porto continue their winning sequence, and winning sequence away in European Competition. Remember I said they seem to deliver when needed- well here they will want that away goal win.

6pm - PSV v Rangers - 1.55 home - again, as with Everton yesterday, PSV look a bit short as they play in a poor quality Dutch league dominated by 3-4 teams. Rangers , it must be said, also play in a rubbish league, and their recent 1-0 win over St Mirren was uninspiring.

PSV's only defeat in their last 12 was a 92nd minute winner from ADO De Haag.

Rangers have only lost 2 in their last 12, both against Celtic.

The 1.55 tells me that PSV should not lose, and a recent 3-1 home win over Lille was mighty impressive as the French league is very competitive this season.

Rangers last away match in Europe saw a great 2-2 draw v Sporting Lisbon , albeit requiring a 92nd minute equaliser from Rangers.

Valencia's beating of Rangers 3-0 tells you best the level the Scottish side are at.

I cannot see PSV losing this evening.

745pm - Dundee Utd v Hamilton - 1.61 home - in a tough day, I will venture into the Scottish leagues and see if there are any redeeming stats here. It's in play so worth a look.

HEAD TO HEADS - 1-1 Dundee Home draw, 0-1 Dundee away win, 0-2 Ham away win , 0-1 Dundee away win, 1-1Ham home draw are the league head to heads. All tight matches bar the 0-2 Ham away win.

5th v 12th ( bottom) the main reason Dundee are strong favs.

DUNDEE UNITED

RECENT HOME FORM - LWLDWWLW - 3 wins in last 4 shows some solidity for Dundee at home.Of the 3 losses mentioned, 1 was against St Mirren and the other 2 against celtic ( not entirely unexpected of course) So all in all, fairly good recent form against all bar the Old Firm at home. 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats at home ( 2 of which came against Celtic)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDDDWDDWLLDDWW - again best to look at the losses first - 3-1 home loss to Celtic and 2-1 away loss to Hearts - any coincidence that Celtic and Hearts are both in the top 3, and the only sides Dundee have lost in their last 14 matches.

The home and recent form signals a degree of confidence already that Dundee, at least, will not lose this evening.

GOAL TRENDS - 64% of Dundee's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. They have failed to score in only 9% of home matches.

Dundee's last 3 home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Dundee have scored 2-3-3 in last 3 home matches against other than Old Firm. Solidity in scoring at home.

Dundee have failed to score in only 3 of their 26 matches this season. The expectation is for at least 1 goal ( and recent home goalscoring exploits signal the potential for 2-3 goals against the right opponents.)

STREAKS - 4 matches at home without a draw - won 3 of last 4 at home. Ignore the Old Firm and have scored 2 -3-3 in last 3 at home.

HAMILTON - I am quite familiar with Hamilton having researched their recent matches against Old Firm.

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLLDLLLL - soccerstats challenge table has not recounted this away win v Motherwell - the only win away this season for Hamilton who look more likely to lose than anything else with 7 losses and a draw away in last 8.

Have lost 2,4,2,3 without scoring away to top 4, and Dundee are 5th - will Dundee follow suit today or will this go as per head to heads?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLDDLLLLDLL - no win in 18 matches for Hamilton.

GOAL TRENDS - Hamilton have conceded in all of their last 11 matches and they have conceded in all of their away matches.Hamilton have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches and have failed to score in all 5 away matches against the top 6, losing the lot.

Only 1 over 2.5 goal match in Hamilton's last 9 matches is quite suprising for bottom side.

36% of Hamiton's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Hamilton concede an average of 1.85 goals away.

STREAKS - 18 matches without a win, 4 away matches without scoring, 4 away matches without a draw - current away losing streak of 4.

I could foresee a 1-0 or 2-0 home win this evening, in a match in which Hamilton are likely to be tough to break down.

805pm - Benfica v Paris St-G - 1.64 home - Benfica lost their 18 match winning streak, with 10 men away to Braga at the weekend and surely they will not record 2 defeats on the trot this evening? A 47 matches without a draw sequence still stands across all competitions, and it simply points, therefore, to a Benfica win this evening?

Ahh, if only it was a simple as that. I am sure PSG could not care less about the preservation of standout stats and sequences.

Again it is difficult to weigh up these 2 based on domestic form. Of course PSG want that away goal so this must be factored in, but psychologically, for me, I cannot see Benfica losing 2 matches on the trot.

805pm - Dinamo Kiev v Man City - a snoozy bore no score draw looks on the cards if Mancini follows on from previous City away days in Europe.

0-0 v Aris, 11 away at Juve, and a surprising 3-1 away loss at Lech Poznan. Under 2.5 goals this evening? Back the ,0-0 initially and watch it drop as this match descends into a dull stalemate?

Again conjecture as I see no reason to do form analysis for 2 sides in a one off ( well 2 legged) match.

235 CLONMEL

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Riltree, 7/2 Jim Will Fix It, 7/1 Around A Pound, 7/1 Molly Con, 8/1 Take A Stroll, 10/1Barrackhillboy, 12/1 Eyre Apparent, 12/1 Saved By John, 12/1 Subaroo Blue, 14/1 Miracle House, 14/1 Witness Belle, 20/1Schinkel, 33/1 Serra Nova, 50/1 Roowest, 50/1 Twin Plan, 66/1 Down The Road, 66/1 Five Oaks, 66/1 Whitehall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market here should be interesting with Take A Stroll and Molly Con two worth keeping a close eye on. Course bumper winner Jim Will Fix It has shown enough in his two runs over hurdles to give him solid claims in this but slight preference is for RILTREE to build on her pleasing Punchestown effort over this trip last month. [Brian Fleming]

I hope you saw yesterday with Maiden Hurdles that they are potential minefields. Jim Will Fix it, now then now then, is 7/4 fav here and backed this morning.

240 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tigre D´aron, 5/1 Vivona Hill, 10/1 Armedanddangerous, 14/1 Knockando, 20/1 First Gunner, 20/1 Flaygray, 20/1 The Dagda, 25/1 Foot The Bill, 25/1 The Bravetraveller, 66/1 No Way Hozay, 66/1 Silent Snow, 150/1 Princess Cherry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Vivona Hill should have benefited considerably from his hurdling debut at Ayr and has races in him for sure but Triumph entry TIGRE D'ARON sets a very reasonable standard on both French and British form.[Paul Johnson]

Only 2 under 14/1 makes this an obvious each way value alternative race with Vivona Hill the obvious alternative to 1/2 shot Tigre D'aron.

220 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Baile Anrai, 13/8 Kasbadali, 14/1 Sandy´s Double, 33/1 Personal Flair, 50/1 Luna Lightning, 50/1 Nobody´s Business.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BAILE ANRAI is only 1lb superior to Kasbadali on official ratings but he may have more in hand than that and his Sandown effort behind a serious improver was a sound run, finishing nicely clear of the rest.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Only 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 33/1 makes an argument for Sandy's double as the obvious alternative ready to pounce if the 2 market leaders make a mistake ( this is a maiden hurdle after all)

600 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Better Self, 7/2 Riot Police, 4/1 Sofias Number One, 10/1 Ad Vitam, 10/1 Farmer´s Wife, 12/1 Beating Harmony, 25/1 Heart Felt, 25/1 Sunley Surprise, 33/1 Kyncraighe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Sofias Number One and Riot Police are dropped in grade but this looks another decent winning opportunity for BETTER SELF.[Adrian Cook]

9 horses for 3 places, and only 3 under 10/1, makes this claimer of some small interest.

630 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Midnight Rider, 5/1 Mymumsaysimthebest, 7/1 Oh My Days, 8/1 Rambo Will, 20/1Savinien, 25/1 Fleurie Lover, 25/1 Lennoxwood, 33/1 Abacist, 50/1 Alpha Delta Whisky, 66/1 Masie Grey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden and market confidence behind long absent Mymumsaysimthebest would be interesting, but likely this is a good opportunity for MIDNIGHT RIDER to get his head in front.[Adrian Cook[

A nose 2nd in 2 of his last 3 runs makes this Midnight Rider a winner ( in all but title) running in a maiden and thus a solid bet this evening? The market will recount any typical market movers in this maiden, one of which could be Oh My days into 5/2 2nd favourite.

315 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Emirates Champion, 5/1 Bay Willow, 5/1 Prizefighting, 8/1 Lost In The Moment, 8/1 Mr Brock, 10/1 Hunting Tower, 10/1 Sweet Lightning, 14/1 Bronze Cannon, 14/1 Monte Alto, 33/1 Kal Barg.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor knows what it takes to win over this C&D having won eight of the 13 Carnival races over this trip and he looks to hold all the aces with Emirates Champion, BAY WILLOW and Lost In The Moment. Frankie Dettori elects to partner the former, who has a fine record on synthetics and is open to improvement but, if a line through Prizefighting is to be believed, he has a bit to find with Bay Willow, who bounced back to form in decisive style last time and who may well be capable of better in the UAE. [Richard Young]

Dettori chooses Emirates Champion, a price gapper 9/4 - - -- 5/1

350 MEYDAN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 J J The Jet Plane, 7/2 Green Beret, 5/1 Alazeyab, 10/1 Doncaster Rover, 14/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 14/1 Rock Jock, 16/1 Everyday Heroes, 16/1 Mariol, 20/1 Indomito, 20/1 Montmorency, 20/1 Orife, 33/1 Musaalem.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A similar scenario in which top-class turf sprinter J J The Jet Plane made his UAE reappearance given his presence meant the majority raced from out of the handicap. He didn't get home after racing with the choke out on his first run on Tapeta but he should be a different proposition back on turf. However, he may not be one for too short a price from a mark of 122 and he's taken on with DONCASTER ROVER, who also didn't fire on his UAE/Tapeta debut last time but the return to turf should see him in a much more favourable light and he's taken to reverse placings with Green Beret andAlazeyab. [Richard Young]

A famous name, J J the Jet Plane could be a good place only bet here?

SHORTLIST

This is another difficult European night of football and these matches are difficult to suss out and get an angle on, being as they are 1st legged affairs where knowledge of the importance of the away goal will afftect tactics which will be altered from usual domestic league tactics.

6pm - CSKA Moscow v Porto - 2.66 away - CSKA look layable here for me against a Porto side who win when they have to win and lose and draw when the result does not affect them!

6pm - PSV v Rangers - 1.55 home -I cannot see PSV losing this evening but Rangers are 8.4 to lay which is the same as a 1.13 back bet.

745pm - Dundee Utd v Hamilton - 1.61 home - I rarely venture into the Premier League apart from the Old Firm, but the stats point to Dundee United losing , and most likely a tight win 1-0 or 2-0.

For those speculators, both teams to score NO is quite good at 1.71 given Hamilton have failed to score in their last 4 away matches.

Dundee United clean sheet YES at 1.99 offers greater value.

Hamilton Clean sheet no at 1.21 I think has a good chance of being a one a dayer from this match. It will also cover a score draw.

Laying Hamilton in the match odds at 7.2 is the same as a 1.16 back bet and in a tricky European night, this is a decent enough bet.

805pm - Benfica v Paris St-G - 1.64 home - this is based on logic rather than any hard evidence. Benfica just lost last match , and ended an 18 match winning sequence in all competitions. They have not drawn in some 47 matches ( around that) and I cannot see Benfica losing 2 consecutive matches.

PSG to lay at 6.8 is the equivalent of a 1.17 back bet.

Benfica total goals 1 or more is 1.18

805pm - Dinamo Kiev v Man City - under 3.5 goals at 1.26 looks worth a chance. I was impressed though with Dzecko in his last European jaunt and with a bit of luck away, it would not have been 0-0 against Aris.

Dinamo Kiev win to nil NO is 1.26 which is reasonable and covers a 0-0.

240 CARLISLE - this looks a 2 horse race - 1.14 Tigre Daron obviously a safer place only proposition while Vivona Hill at 1.38 looks the obvious value alternative.

630 KEMPTON - this looks standout today horse racing wise, with Midnight Rider a nose 2nd in 2 of his last 3 runs, and , to all intensive porpoises, a winner running in a maiden.

Of course, maidens with 7 hours to start could be full of all sorts of twists and turns ( dare I remind you of Black Pond) so we need to see the market nearer the off.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

6pm - CSKA Moscow v Porto - 2.66 away - Porto win when they need to win, but I would like to cover the draw. Laying CSKA Moscow at 3.15 is around a 1.46 bet. Backing CSKA to win to nil is around 1.22 albeit in an illiquid ( at present) Betfair market.

805pm - Benfica v Paris St-G - 1.64 home - laying PSG is around a 1.17 back bet. This is based on the fact that I do not think Benfica will lose 2 consecutive matches after a winning run of 17/18 and a no draw sequence currently around 47 matches.

745pm - Dundee Utd v Hamilton - 1.61 home - Hamilton are a tough nut to crack, only one of their last 9 matches has been over 2.5 goals. But they have lost 5 of the matches they have played against top 6 away from home ( Dundee are 5th and they play them today)

No goal in 4 aways, no win in 18 and the lay of Hamilton is obvious here. Laying at 7.2 currently is around a 1.16 back bet.

Chance on Dundee United winning outright ( eventually)

In light of a potential tight match under 3.5 goals at 1.25 appeals

630 KEMPTON - Midnight Rider looks standout today in this maiden but I need to view the market nearer the off.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94