A losing bet , but would have been a winning trading bet with an early goal. I only hope noone got on!!
1130am - AC Milan v Bari - 1.19 - out of the CHampions League and facing bottom side. Brescia's 1-1 draw with Inter Milan shows you that at this time of year, the bottom sides can lift themselves
HEAD TO HEADS - 0-0 MILAN home draw, 2-0 Milan away win, 2-3 Milan away win, 3-0 Milan home win ( Cup)
Top v Bottom - Bari are finished now and no amount of winning will keep them up. AC Milan must take advantage of the game in hand and the 2 dropped points from Inter Milan .
How will Champions League exit affect AC Milan?
AC MILAN RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLDWDWW - 2 defeats at home have come against 6th and 7th in the league.
2-0, 3-0, 4-0 against bottom 4 sides at home augurs well for this morning.
AC MILAN RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWWDDWWWW - no defeat in 11 and quite clearly in good nick.
GOAL TRENDS - score on average 2.14 at home. 57% home matches over 2.5 goals is inconclusive.
3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have not conceded at home to bottom 4.
Have only conceded 2 goals in the first half hour all season - quite astounding stat this one.
Only conceded 8 goals in the first 60 minutes all season, contrast with 12 in the last 30 minutes.
Score most goals in 16-30th minute and last quarter of an hour. Gives the impression that AC Milan are likely to score first here.
Indeed Milan score first 79% of matches.Opponent leads at half time in only 7.1% of matches.
Have scored in all last 5 matches.
Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 and 6 of last 8 matches.
STREAKS - no defeat in 5 at home, 11 in total.
Ibra and Pato key for AC Milan today. They must take advantage of Inter's 2 point drop v 2nd from bottom.
BARI
RECENT AWAY FORM
3-2 in previous encounter saw Milan 2-0 up and if that occurs today, trade.
LLLWLLLLL - 1 win away all season against 3rd bottom - Against top 6 away
1) - meeting today
2) - 4-0 Inter
3) - 2-2 Napoli - 2nd match of season, Napoli were 2-1 up, early season and easily dismissed as unrepresentative.
4) - Lazio - 1-0
5) - Udinese - 1-0
6) - Roma 1-0
The 3 1-0 losses are a little bit of a concern.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLDLDL - the 2 draws were at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 for over 2.5 goals.
Have scored only 4 in the first half all season.
Lead at half time in only 3.6% of matches.
Last 5 matches have been under 2.5 goals. Have kept only 1 clean sheet in last 10 matches.
BAri have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 9 away without a draw - 10 matches without a win.
5 match losing streak away from home.
It all points to a Real v Hercules - they score, they win. I don't expect Bari to score in the first half. If they score they should be layed.
130pm - Twente v VVV - 1.16 home - another whose price indicates 3,4,5 goals just for them. But, as with Real last night, we need to look at the circumstances. Well, Twente have no Champions League commitments but they have a Europa League fixture on the 17th March, and a 3-0 home lead ( no away goals conceded) should see them through with an away goal scored against Zenit St Petersburg.
HEAD TO HEADS - 2009 and 2010 head to heads - 3 times 2 goals have been scored by Twente against VVV for a 2-1 home win and a 2-0 and 2-1 away win in the league. Not quite the scorelines of a 1.16 shot unless VVV have declined since they last met.
2nd from top v 2nd from bottom - it could be that VVV are in decline, goal difference of -34 goals this season.
Twente are on the same games played as PSV but 3 points behind. They must win and hope PSV slip up at some stage.
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWWWWDW - reasonable home form - recent 1-1 draw was against 12th in the league.
Against bottom sides, Twente have played 4 of the bottom 6 but not played the bottom 2 at home. But they have won 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 2-1 against those 4 at home. Not emphatic and certainly not worthy of a 1.16 quote
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWDWDLW - a bit of a wobble lately for Twente with 2 wins in last 5 . One of the draws and one of the losses came away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - score on average 2.23 goals at home , 62% of home matches over 2.5 goals. Only 1 of Twente's last 5 matches has been over 2.5 goals.
THe last time Twente failed to score was 20 matches ago, September 2010.
Janko and De Jong important goalscorers at home for Twente.
STREAKS - have won all of the 8 matches they have played home and away against bottom 6 sides.
no defeat in 6 at home.
VVV
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWLDLLLL - win and draw came against bottom and 10th and the only positive results all season away from home.
HAve lost 3-0, 1-0, 6-1 and 3-0 against the top 5 they have played away -1-0 was against Ajax and you could argue this is not typical against the top sides away.
Have conceded 26 in the last half hour of all matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLLLLWLLWL - wins came at home against 11th and 16th, and are part of a positive pattern at home against bottom 9 sides. But they are playing away today
GOAL TRENDS - have conceded in all away matches and failed to score in a whopping 69% of away matches.
Only 54% of away matches, though, have been over 2.5 goals which indicates possible 2-0 average scoreline.
Last 3 matches under 2.5 goals HAve failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.
Opponents score first in 77% of matches .
STREAKS - 6 away without a win, 4 match losing streak away, 9 matches in total without a draw.
Another fairly obvious one today, but Twente have not been mullering teams of late, and Ajax were 1.12 I believe against VVV recently and that was only a 1-0. REmember the time of year but it looks hopeless for VVV at present.
130pm - Willem II v Ajax - 1.27 away
HEAD TO HEADS - last 4 head to heads all Ajax wins and without conceding a goal - 7-0, 4-0, 2-0 Ajax away, 2-0 Ajax home win.
3rd v bottom
Ajax are only 5 points behind PSV at the top so really are still in with a shout.
WILLEM II - 11 points all season and out of it.
RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLDDWDW - draw and a win against 8th and 9th show a battling Willem II - I remember the Heerenveen match well as I did the research - a back of Heerenveen was successful as they went 2-0 up but lost 4-3 to Willem.
Against the top 6 at home, Willem II have lost the 4 matches they have played conceding 4,3,4,3 so we have a distinct pattern there - against the top 9 at home, Willem have conceded 4,3,4,3,3,3.
This would make Ajax nearer the Twente's 1.16 today than 1.27. Remember these are HOME stats for Willem!!!
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLLWLLDLWL - only 2 wins but a battling Willem -that WDW as you know was achieved at home.
Against the top 6 home and away, we see all losses and a concession of 2 or more goals in every match.
What we need to ask is how important was that 1-0 win for Ajax v VVV. VVV are 2nd from bottom and Ajax were playing at home. Note that in the last 2 matches where these 2 met, the scorelines were 2-0 on both occasions, with Suarez scoring 3 penalties. Does this signal a likelihood Ajax will struggle away to a side with WDW in last 3 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 86% of away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have only kept 2 clean sheets all season. Have only failed to score once in last 11 matches.
Have conceded 28 in the first half and 43 in the 2nd half .
STREAKS - 5 matches at home without a defeat.
AJAX
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWWLWDD away for Ajax is inconsistent form away.Against bottom 6 away from home, unbeaten 2-1 win, 5-0 win, 1-0 win, 2-2 draw, 2-0 win.
Not too hot in the last 4 matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWLWWDWDW - only 1 loss in last 10 matches. 2 recent away draws have come against top 7 sides away.
GOAL TRENDS - average 1.92 goals away from home - 69% of away matches over 2.5 goals.
Have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 matches. Have only failed to score in 2 of their last 11 matches.
STREAKS - no defeat in 3 away - no defeat in 6 overall.
Have scored 26 in their last half hour of matches.
El Hamdaoui has scored the most away for Ajax.
3pm - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.32 home - top v 4th and 2 games in hand over Celtic which, if won, will ensure Rangers top spot. I suspect this is postponed.
4pm - Lille v Valenciennes - 1.46 home
HEAD TO HEADS - 2-0 Val home win, 4-0 Lille home win, 1-0 VAl home win, 1-1 Lille away draw.
Lille goal was an own goal in the 1-1 draw.
Tight recent head to heads with Lille getting 1 point from the 2 matches.
Top v 14th. Game in hand over 2nd, 3rd and 4th who are all within a point of Lille, this really is a must win for them at home today against a side they historically have trouble with.
LILLE RECENT HOME FORM - WWWDWWWD at home recently -draws against 2nd and 6th , both 1-1's hint that Lille are ok against other than top 6 sides ( they have won 8 and drawn 1 1-1 )
LILLE RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWWWDWLDW - DL away from home recently
GOAL TRENDS - score on average 1.92 and concede on average 0.92 at home per match. Only 46% of home matches over 2.5 goals
Only 1 of last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals .Lille have failed to score in only 3 of 26 matches this season.
Have conceded only 9 in the first half all season.
Have scored 15 in the last 1/4 hour all season.
STREAKS - 8 matches at home without defeat.
VALENCIENNES - already we see they can handle Lille historically but will Lille's need for a win with that game in hand prove the decisive factor?
VAL RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLDD - no win in 7 away matches but those draws are rearing their ugly head.
inclonclusive against top 6 away as they have only played 2nd and 3rd ( 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw - if you can read anything into such a small sample)
VAL RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLWDWDDD - 2 of the last 3 draws at home and 0-0 - yet more tightness from Val .
GOAL TRENDS - unsurprisingly only 31% of away matches over 2.5 goals , concede only 1.23 on average away from home . Last 2 matches have been 0-0's
But 4 of last 5 away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
3 clean sheets in last 4 matches.
STREAKS - no win in 7 away - no defeat in 2 away - no defeat in last 6 matches
Not the team I would want to be facing today for my 3 points.
A hint this may be a tight match today and perhaps under 2.5 goals ( safer under 3.5 goals) might pay off - last 2 matches for Val were 0-0 and against 2nd and 3rd away, only a 1-0 loss and a 1-1 draw. The 1-0 loss to Rennes was a 90th minute goal and the 1-1 draw with Lyon *( 3rd) was in Sept 2010 and not too relevant .
Interesting match - the must win faces the pains in the arse tight team on a recent 6 match unbeaten run!!
445pm - Man City v Reading - 1.44 - a hit and hope this one after City's awful loss against Kiev mid week. Everton aside, Premiership teams have been battering lower league teams in the Cup, and guess who Everton lost at home to?
To avoid a repeat, why not back City at 1.44 with an insurance bet on 1-0 Reading at 28. The "insurance premium" won't cost much to cover your stake.
Cup games are Cup games when it all comes down to it , best determined for me in play ( and Betting Gods willing) with a betting exchange that is working - what a novelty!!!
5pm - Fenerbahce v Konyaspor - 1.22 - well Trabonspor did their bit yesterday and Fenerbahce need just a 1-0 win today to go top on goal difference ( 1 goal)
3,4,4,2,4,4 the goals scored by Fenerbahce against this lot in head to heads shows both total dominance and consistently high goalscoring.
This presents a superb opportunity to increase that goal difference between them and Trabonspor and any manager worth his salt will have pointed this out to the Fen players.
2nd ( currently as Trab played extra game yesterday) against 2nd from bottom
FENERBAHCE RECENT HOME FORM - 10 wins, 2 draws no defeats at home
DWWWWWWW - can't really complain.
Against 5 of the bottom 6 they have played at home it's 4-0, 3-0, 1-0, 5-2, 2-0
FENER RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWLWWWWWWWW - in superb winning form
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals - 58% clean sheets at home - 2.5 goals scored on average at home - last 6 matches Fenerbahce have scored 2 goals or more. Scored 30 and conceded 8 only at home this season.
STREAKS - 7 wins on the trot at home, 8 overall. No defeat in 12 at home, Fenerbahce have scored 2 times or more in 9 of 12 home matches.
KONYASPOR
RECENT AWAY FORM - 8 defeats, 2 draws and a single loss away
WDLLLL
Have only played one of the top 4 away and lost 1-0 ( Bursaspor)
Win and draw came against 7th and 8th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLLDLL - no win in 9
GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 13 matches - we can see where Kon's problems are.
Have only scored 9 away from home all season .
STREAKS - no win in 9, 4 match losing streak away from home.5 matches away without a win.
BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH as that great gambler once said," of inneth the runneth in, strangeth things happeneth when toppeth meeteth bottometh"
Another top v bottom clash following on from AC Milan v Bari. The result does not look in doubt for a Fenerbahce side on a great winning streak, scoring 2 or more in their last 6, and convincingly beating the bottom 5.
Goals should be the order of the day and, with Trabonspor only scoring one goal, Fenerbahce, who have been consistent high scorers against this lot, could go top on better goal difference ( +32 goals with Trab at present)
255 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Dare To Doubt, 9/2 Oilily, 5/1 Definite Class, 6/1 Askanna, 8/1 Golden Sunbird, 12/1 Little Green, 16/1 Araucaria, 16/1 Narima, 25/1 My Cool Lady, 50/1 Credit Box, 50/1 Torina.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Expect front-running tactics once again to be used on DARE TO DOUBT and a reproduction of her easy success at Naas last month should be good enough against mares. Its hard to know how good Definite Class really is but she could turn out to be the main danger. [Justin OHanlon]
I think there are some non runners who should make Dare's job easier - a winner last twice and should place again for Mullins -ground soft ( heavy in places ) - a concern?
355 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 For Bill, 11/2 Aura About You, 8/1 Gentle Alice, 10/1 Coscorrig, 14/1 Kylebeg Krystle, 50/1Uncommited, 100/1 Castlerock Rose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Clearly now one of the best mares in training, FOR BILL shouldnt be put to the pin of her collar to register her 12th career success. A return to form last time suggests Aura About You may chase her home. [Justin OHanlon]
One of the best mares in training eh? Novices chase and 2 places should give us reasonable odds.Run almost exclusively on heavy so no ground concerns today.
235 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Evella, 7/4 Pipsacre, 16/1 Pezula.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tactics will play a part as both Evella and PIPSACRE have won from the front. Henry Daly's mare might be worth chancing, in receipt of quite a bit of weight with her jockey claiming 7lb.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 horses and 2 places so great probability race - novice chase though.
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